Local Council by-election 15th July 2021

[andrew111]

Jul 15, 2021 23:00:46 GMT peterl said:

Jul 15, 2021 22:10:53 GMT gwynthegriff said:

No. But neither are they responsible for other items on that list.

There is an expectation that councillors will lobby for the community generally.

Whether that should be so is another matter.

Keeping an area clean and tidy is a council responsibility, e.g. street cleaning, addressing fly-tipping, providing litter bins etc. Anti-social behaviour is an area that the council is at least somewhat involved with.

ASB certainly is because a council can bring in community justice which some studies suggest makes a difference.

Councils do have a voice which may be listened to by CCG regarding GP provision.

And of course repeating the concerns of local people back to them is a time honoured campaign tactic..

[iainbhx]

Jul 16, 2021 6:24:49 GMT andrewp said:

Jul 16, 2021 5:42:55 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

Not surprised by the Conservative gain. Though I thought that as the Labour candidate was the husband of the deceased Councillor this might mean they just held onto the seat.

I thought the Labour candidate being the widower of the deceased councillor, might just hold it for them too. 

Counter acted by him being from Wednesbury against a Tory from Tivvy. Yes, it is that parochial there.

[andrew111]

Jul 16, 2021 8:31:12 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Jul 16, 2021 8:00:59 GMT iang said:

Being local, I volunteered to help, but there was no contact, so as far as I am aware, no leafletting was done (could be wrong). Even in the good old days, there wasn't much activity in that end of Sandwell, and what activity there has been in recent years is still very much around Great Barr, ie the area we used to hold (as said upthread, Tividale did have a Lib Dem cllr in the early 90s but that was once, and a fluke). My impression is that the last ten years has seen some local parties contract to virtually nothing, and therefore there is no activity in the traditional sense. And for us, local campaigning matters, so if that stops (and covid has restricted it everywhere of course), there isn't much else to persuade people to vote LD

Well, if it was an experiment to demonstrate the sheer uselessness of social media-only campaigning with no paper going through doors, it succeeded on those terms.

Delivering a leaflet or two after no candidate for 10 years would have made little difference in a marginal Tory/Labour ward where the others are working hard.

[justin124]

To what extent does this result arise from the Tories being more effective here at GOTV - and picking up the white working class BNP vote recorded back in 2006?

[timmullen1]

Jul 16, 2021 9:33:56 GMT justin124 said:

To what extent does this result arise from the Tories being more effective here at GOTV - and picking up the white working class BNP vote recorded back in 2006?

Looking through the Tividale hashtag on Twitter both main parties seem to have taken it seriously with Ministers/Shadow Ministers and MPs visiting, but actually selecting the widower of the late councillor may have backfired as even the Tory Tweets were highlighting fly tipping on what looked like playing fields that had been there months and general dissatisfaction with the refuse collection service, which gave the impression Labour could have come up against “well your wife didn’t sort it out, how are you going to be different“?

[Merseymike]

Jul 16, 2021 10:12:50 GMT timmullen1 said:

Jul 16, 2021 9:33:56 GMT justin124 said:

To what extent does this result arise from the Tories being more effective here at GOTV - and picking up the white working class BNP vote recorded back in 2006?

Looking through the Tividale hashtag on Twitter both main parties seem to have taken it seriously with Ministers/Shadow Ministers and MPs visiting, but actually selecting the widower of the late councillor may have backfired as even the Tory Tweets were highlighting fly tipping on what looked like playing fields that had been there months and general dissatisfaction with the refuse collection service, which gave the impression Labour could have come up against “well your wife didn’t sort it out, how are you going to be different“?

Also, it's a Labour council...

[listener]

Next year there is an all-up election in Birmingham. Does this result provide a foretaste for next year's campaign in Birmingham?

[yellowperil]

I will surprise nobody that I am hardly a cheerleaderfor the Tories here, but where there are tired monopoly administrations I will cheer on anybody brave enough to try and break up that monopoly. It will be in the interests of that governing party in the long run that they experience challenge. And before anyone asks, yes that includes the handful of Lib Dem monopoly administrations in that rare position. Of course I would prefer there to be an effective challenge here coming from the Lib Dems, and I find the excuses for nor running a proper campaign here pretty pitiful- it doesn't need a huge number of people to make a significant difference, and while the result might have still left them significantly behind the big two, I am sure it could have produced a 3-figure vote rather than the pathetic 30, and laid the basis for a proper campaign another time if Labour fail to wake up and the Tories get found out. That's what by-elections are for, for heaven's sake.

[gwynthegriff]

Jul 15, 2021 23:00:46 GMT peterl said:

Jul 15, 2021 22:10:53 GMT gwynthegriff said:

No. But neither are they responsible for other items on that list.

There is an expectation that councillors will lobby for the community generally.

Whether that should be so is another matter.

Keeping an area clean and tidy is a council responsibility, e.g. street cleaning, addressing fly-tipping, providing litter bins etc. Anti-social behaviour is an area that the council is at least somewhat involved with.

Which is why I said "other items" not "all the items".

I do have some awareness of the direct responsibilities of local authorities.

[gwynthegriff]

Jul 16, 2021 8:08:20 GMT yellowperil said:

Jul 16, 2021 8:00:59 GMT iang said:

Being local, I volunteered to help, but there was no contact, so as far as I am aware, no leafletting was done (could be wrong). Even in the good old days, there wasn't much activity in that end of Sandwell, and what activity there has been in recent years is still very much around Great Barr, ie the area we used to hold (as said upthread, Tividale did have a Lib Dem cllr in the early 90s but that was once, and a fluke). My impression is that the last ten years has seen some local parties contract to virtually nothing, and therefore there is no activity in the traditional sense. And for us, local campaigning matters, so if that stops (and covid has restricted it everywhere of course), there isn't much else to persuade people to vote LD

That does tend to cofirm my impression from afar. The contrast within the LDs between those areas still bustling with activity and those virtually moribund is immense. Some of the moribund areas are not necessarily short of members but they are desperately short of activists.

Our local party membership is at least three times the size it was when we had 6 Borough Councillors and a County Councillor.

We have no councillors.

(But some members are constantly tweeting/facebooking)

[gwynthegriff]

Jul 16, 2021 8:57:10 GMT andrew111 said:

Jul 16, 2021 8:31:12 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Well, if it was an experiment to demonstrate the sheer uselessness of social media-only campaigning with no paper going through doors, it succeeded on those terms.

Delivering a leaflet or two after no candidate for 10 years would have made little difference in a marginal Tory/Labour ward where the others are working hard.

Correct.

A single election leaflet that comes out of nowhere, so to speak, rarely makes any impact.

Why would it?

[The Bishop]

Tom Watson's "formidable electoral machine" not looking so hot these days, then.

(and yes, I know this wasn't in his old seat - but it was fairly well known his writ ran throughout the borough)

[iainbhx]

Jul 16, 2021 10:24:16 GMT listener said:

Next year there is an all-up election in Birmingham. Does this result provide a foretaste for next year's campaign in Birmingham?

I think the four recent by-elections in Birmingham give us a better clue.

[rcronald]

Jul 16, 2021 11:46:15 GMT iainbhx said:

Jul 16, 2021 10:24:16 GMT listener said:

Next year there is an all-up election in Birmingham. Does this result provide a foretaste for next year's campaign in Birmingham?

I think the four recent by-elections in Birmingham give us a better clue.

and they were even worse for Labour if I remember correctly.

[November_Rain]

I am not surprised with this result to be honest. I think there's a bit of animosity to the current administration running Sandwell Council and due to them having full-on power for a long time, it's showing an electorate "fed up" to use the term. If the Tories put up a local candidate, then that's what probably swung it. Yes Labour threw everything at it, but the Tories edged it. Let's see if their new councillor proves themselves. Yes local and parliament can not be compared, but I can see West Bromwich West being a Tory hold for a while.

Birmingham will be interesting next year, but things can change between now and May 2022.

[November_Rain]

Jul 16, 2021 11:46:15 GMT iainbhx said:

Jul 16, 2021 10:24:16 GMT listener said:

Next year there is an all-up election in Birmingham. Does this result provide a foretaste for next year's campaign in Birmingham?

I think the four recent by-elections in Birmingham give us a better clue.

We lost Quinton and Oscott to the Tories but held on to Billesley and Hall Green North. 

[Merseymike]

There certainly appears to be something of a trend towards independents , at a local level, and against incumbents more generally.

It's always difficult to extrapolate to the national but I think Labour have really got to start to project some sort of message. Any sort of message! What amused me was that the two leaflets published here covered essentially the same substantive content

[Terry Weldon]

Jul 16, 2021 10:39:48 GMT gwynthegriff said:

Jul 16, 2021 8:57:10 GMT andrew111 said:

Delivering a leaflet or two after no candidate for 10 years would have made little difference in a marginal Tory/Labour ward where the others are working hard.

Correct.

A single election leaflet that comes out of nowhere, so to speak, rarely makes any impact.

Why would it?

In my area (Haslemerem SW Surrey) we had minimal activity prior to the 2017 county election, and hit something like 25% share. We did do significantly more leafleting and some door knocking for the 2019 LE - and went from zero councillors to 4 on Waverley and 7 on Haslemere TC. Following sustained activity since, in this years county election we doubled our share to 50%, winning the seat for the first time in almost 50 years. (Admittedly, there were also some other factors too, but the lesson is clear.)

That's why we are already working steadily towards our next election nearly two years away. Social media alone won't do it, sporadic leaflets won't do it. Sustained activity on multiple fronts, will.

[Merseymike]

Jul 16, 2021 12:23:16 GMT Terry Weldon said:

Jul 16, 2021 10:39:48 GMT gwynthegriff said:

Correct.

A single election leaflet that comes out of nowhere, so to speak, rarely makes any impact.

Why would it?

In my area (Haslemerem SW Surrey) we had minimal activity prior to the 2017 county election, and hit something like 25% share. We did do significantly more leafleting and some door knocking for the 2019 LE - and went from zero councillors to 4 on Waverley and 7 on Haslemere TC. Following sustained activity since, in this years county election we doubled our share to 50%, winning the seat for the first time in almost 50 years. (Admittedly, there were also some other factors too, but the lesson is clear.)

That's why we are already working steadily towards our next election nearly two years away. Social media alone won't do it, sporadic leaflets won't do it. Sustained activity on multiple fronts, will.

I think that's definitely true for the LibDems and smaller parties or independents.

Though a national swing can see some odd things happening. A Labour councillor I know in Liverpool stood for what had been a LibDem ward for years and years. She was quite literally a paper candidate and didn't even deliver a leaflet. But it was the Coalition years and she won the seat.

[iainbhx]

Jul 16, 2021 12:10:12 GMT rcronald said:

Jul 16, 2021 11:46:15 GMT iainbhx said:

I think the four recent by-elections in Birmingham give us a better clue.

and they were even worse for Labour if I remember correctly.

Not really no. Pro-Labour swing in Billesley, almost neutral in Hall Green North, small pro-Tory swing in Quinton which is a traditional marginal and a big swing to the Tories in Oscott - which in a way comes from the loss of a long-serving and excellent councillor and the attempted replacement by someone no-one in Oscott had heard of. Oscott probably does have the most "Sandwell" demographics of any of them, but its not a common demographic in the Second City. The Billesley result was poor for the Tories to say the least. The Tories should be looking at somewhere between 8-14 gains next time, but they also have some seats to defend as well. However, Birmingham will almost certainly stay Labour.