peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473 
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Post by peterl on Jun 8, 2021 20:58:00 GMT
As we seem to have started a trend of stand alone prediction competitions for parliamentary by elections, I will run Chesham and Amersham. I hope someone else will run Batley and Spen.
The candidates as a reminder are:
Green Carolyne Culver
Rejoin EU Brendan Donnelly
Conservative Peter Fleet
Liberal Democrats Sarah Green
Breakthrough Party Carla Gregory
Freedom Alliance Adrian Oliver
Labour Natasa Pantelic
Reform UK Alex Wilson
Predict the percentage score for each candidate, please round to whole numbers. You start with 100 points and lose 1 for each percent wrong, with an additional penalty of 10 points if you get the winner wrong. Deadline is close of polls.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 8, 2021 21:20:36 GMT
Con 44 LD 35 Grn 10 Lab 5 RefUK 3 Rejoin 1 FA 1 Breakthrough 1
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Post by greenhert on Jun 8, 2021 21:48:37 GMT
Conservative 48, Liberal Democrats 30, Green 12, Labour 6, Reform UK 1.5, Breakthrough 1, Rejoin EU 1, Freedom Alliance 0.5.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jun 9, 2021 5:31:42 GMT
As we seem to have started a trend of stand alone prediction competitions for parliamentary by elections, I will run Chesham and Amersham. I hope someone else will run Batley and Spen. The candidates as a reminder are: Green Carolyne Culver Rejoin EU Brendan Donnelly Conservative Peter Fleet Liberal Democrats Sarah Green Breakthrough Party Carla Gregory Freedom Alliance Adrian Oliver Labour Natasa Pantelic Reform UK Alex Wilson Predict the percentage score for each candidate, please round to whole numbers. You start with 100 points and lose 1 for each percent wrong, with an additional penalty of 10 points if you get the winner wrong. Deadline is close of polls.
I'll run the Spatley and Ben competition, unless someone else volunteers.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 9, 2021 6:40:10 GMT
CON 46.3%
LD 42%
GRN 6.3%
LAB 3.3%
OTH 2.1%
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Post by bigfatron on Jun 9, 2021 6:41:34 GMT
Con 43 LD 41 Grn 9 Lab 4 RefUK 1 Rejoin 1 FA 0.5 Breakthrough 0.5
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carlton43
Reform Party
Posts: 50,889
Member is Online
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 9, 2021 9:20:37 GMT
Typically most of you did not read the heading to the exam paper and have 'not' rounded to whole numbers. I suppose there should be a penalty for that? However, some candidates in these two by-elections, may well not get a whole point so the setters of this prediction competition need to address that point.
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Post by bigfatron on Jun 9, 2021 9:47:20 GMT
Typically you had to criticise most of your fellow contributors ;-)
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jun 9, 2021 14:43:17 GMT
Typically most of you did not read the heading to the exam paper and have 'not' rounded to whole numbers. I suppose there should be a penalty for that? However, some candidates in these two by-elections, may well not get a whole point so the setters of this prediction competition need to address that point. Noted for the Spatley and Ben competition. 📝 |
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Post by manchesterman on Jun 9, 2021 15:45:32 GMT
I'm going:
Con 47
LD 37
Green 7
Lab 6
Reform 2 (rounded down)
Rejoin 1 (rounded up)
Freedom 0 (rounded down)
Breakthrough 0 (rounded down) so no breakthrough here!
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 10, 2021 10:54:52 GMT
Actual prediction: Con 50.4; LD 34.2; Lab 6.7; Grn 5.2; Reform 1.7; Freedom Alliance 1.2; Rejoin 0.4; Breakthrough 0.2
Rounded prediction: Con 50; LD 34; Lab 7; Grn 5; Reform 2; Freedom Alliance 1; Rejoin 0; Breakthrough 0 (which only adds up to 99 due to rounding).
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Post by thirdchill on Jun 10, 2021 13:24:59 GMT
Prediction (all percentages rounded to nearest whole %)
Conservative - 47%
Liberal Democrats - 38%
Labour - 8%
Green - 6%
Reform UK - 1%
Rejoin EU - 0%
Breakthrough Party - 0%
Freedom Alliance - 0%
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 10, 2021 19:47:13 GMT
OK, somebody has to go for it (nearly 30% members have gone for a LibDem win on the forum poll, and its not out of the question. After all, I'm not having to put any money on it.)
Lib Dems: 41%
Cons: 40%
Green: 9%
Lab: 8%
Reform: 2% (rounded up)
Rejoin, Breakthrough, and sweet FA, all rounded down to 0.
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Post by owainsutton on Jun 10, 2021 20:44:08 GMT
Con 51
LD 27
Lab 13
Green 3
Reform 1
Others 0
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Sg1
Conservative
Posts: 1,084
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Post by Sg1 on Jun 14, 2021 1:06:17 GMT
I'll go with:
Conservative 48
Liberal Democrats 39
Green 5
Labour 4
Reform UK 3
Freedom Alliance 0
Rejoin EU 0
Breakthrough Party 0
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jun 14, 2021 9:03:58 GMT
Conservative 45%
Liberal Democrats 37%
Labour 9%
Green 8%
Reform UK 1% (rounded down)
Breakthrough Party 0% (rounded down)
Freedom Alliance 0% (rounded down)
Rejoin EU 0% (rounded down)
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sirbenjamin
IFP
True fame is reading your name written in graffiti, but without the words 'is a wanker' after it.
Posts: 4,979
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Post by sirbenjamin on Jun 14, 2021 9:22:21 GMT
Conservative 44
Lib Dem 40
Labour 6
Green 6
Rejoin 3
Reform 1
Freedom 1
Breakthrough 1
Over 100% because I have rounded up as per the rules.
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carlton43
Reform Party
Posts: 50,889
Member is Online
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 14, 2021 11:39:14 GMT
CON 53
LD 37
LAB 5
GR 4
(The rest all less than 1)
REF 1
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Post by bigfatron on Jun 14, 2021 11:54:49 GMT
Summary so far:
11 Tory wins v 1 Lib Dem win
Majority: Tory +18 to LDem +1
Range of predictions:
Tory: 40 - 53
L Dem: 30 - 42
Lab: 3 - 13
Green: 3 - 12
Reform: 1 - 3
Rejoin: 0 - 3
I have omitted owainsutton's offering as his numbers only add to 95...
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Roger Harmer
Lib Dem
Councillor for Acocks Green in Birmingham
Posts: 247
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Post by Roger Harmer on Jun 14, 2021 20:49:59 GMT
Well I was there today canvassing and the consensus seems wrong to me. I'd go with:
LD 48%
Con 40%
Green 6%
Labour 4%
Reform 1%
Others all less than 0.5% so rounded to 0% but 1% collectively. (hope that works with the rules).
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