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Post by John Chanin on Jun 16, 2021 19:20:20 GMT
Conservative 51%
Liberal 39%
Green 6%
Labour 3%
Others 1%
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 16, 2021 19:30:50 GMT
All parties could be x.4 and therfore rounded down, that would only leave him 0.6% short. Or if all were x.49 and rounded down he wouldn't be short at all. Not saying it's likely, but it is mathematically possible. It would still be out by 1.08% Yeah, I know - I realised some time ago that I had messed up the Maths, but was just waiting for someone to point it out... |
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Post by heslingtonian on Jun 16, 2021 21:24:09 GMT
Conservative-43%
Lib Dem - 39%
Green - 8%
Labour - 7%
Reform - 1%
Others - 2%
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dibs
Non-Aligned
Posts: 63
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Post by dibs on Jun 16, 2021 22:16:22 GMT
LD 43%
Con 41%
Lab 8%
Grn 3%
Reform 2%
Freedom Alliance 1%
Rejoin 1%
Breakthrough 1%
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Post by michael2019 on Jun 16, 2021 22:55:44 GMT
Lib Dem 53%
Con 39%
Green 4%
Lab 2%
Rejoin 1%
Reform UK 1%
Others 0%
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 17, 2021 6:58:45 GMT
There are now 22 entries for this competition- well at least a lot more interest than for Airdrie and Shotts, say. Do we think that will be it? There were I seem to remember more for Brecon & Radnor, in what now feels like another world, but then there was controversy about the final acceptance point for entries because the inept organiser had failed to specify that.
The united wisdom of this forum on actual winner at present says 16 Con-6 Lib Dem, but last 10 entries split 5-5.
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,732
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jun 17, 2021 10:39:00 GMT
Lib Dem 53% Con 39% Green 4% Lab 2% Rejoin 1% Reform UK 1% Others 0% Steady on now - I'd love you to be right, but that seems a bit, well, out there ... |
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Post by michael2019 on Jun 17, 2021 11:03:49 GMT
Lib Dem 53% Con 39% Green 4% Lab 2% Rejoin 1% Reform UK 1% Others 0% Steady on now - I'd love you to be right, but that seems a bit, well, out there ... LOL  ! Very unfortunately my predictions on the forum have all been wrong so far! President Bloomberg is noticeable by his absence (well I said it was between him and Sanders for the Democrat nomination two days before he dropped out!) So my "official" prediction (other than for the prediction competition !) is for a Green win! I was going for the "Price is Right" strategy of going for the highest bid for the Lib Dem vote! This is actually the increase in Lib Dem vote in the Witney by-election and the corresponding decrease in the Tory vote (except I think I knocked an extra 1% off to make it up to 100%). As I couldn't think of many reasons why it shouldn't be! My thoughts were the Lab vote will collapse completely - why wouldn't it in a very Tory shire and no doubt targeted mercilessly by the Lib Dems and there may be a few strong Greenies to keep up their vote. And I thought that the Lib Dem line might be underselling them a bit for expectation management reasons. As I say by-election votes may be like a virus with an exponential wave - so if this isn't the result - it would have been the result next Thursday ! |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 17, 2021 13:55:19 GMT
Average prediction so far is:
Con 45.1
LD 40.1
Green 6.2
Lab 5.8
Reform 1.5
Prediction for 1st place is Con 17 LD 6, but it is also interesting to notice that prediction for 3rd place is Green 12 Lab 10 RefUK 1. I'm not sure where all the big Green vote predictions are coming from. If there is a big Lib Dem bandwagon developing, that would squash down the Labour vote due to tactical voting, but wouldn't it also squash down the Green vote for the same reason?
My predikshun is:
Con 45
LD 43
Lab 5
Green 3
Reform 2
Rejoin 1
Freedom 1
Breakthrough 0
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Post by Richard Cromwell on Jun 17, 2021 15:04:25 GMT
Chesham and Amersham, Buckinghamshire | LD | 47% | | CON | 41% | | GRN | 6% | | LAB | 5% | | Reform | 1% | | Freedom | 0% | | Breakthrough | 0% | | Rejoin | 0% |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 17, 2021 16:01:09 GMT
Average prediction so far is: Con 45.1 LD 40.1 Green 6.2 Lab 5.8 Reform 1.5 Prediction for 1st place is Con 17 LD 6, but it is also interesting to notice that prediction for 3rd place is Green 12 Lab 10 RefUK 1. I'm not sure where all the big Green vote predictions are coming from. If there is a big Lib Dem bandwagon developing, that would squash down the Labour vote due to tactical voting, but wouldn't it also squash down the Green vote for the same reason? My predikshun is: Con 45 LD 43 Lab 5 Green 3 Reform 2 Rejoin 1 Freedom 1 Breakthrough 0 Well my reasoning was that a) the Greens' strong anti-HS2 proposals will protect them bit and b) I suspect the Green vote here is a lot more partisan/loyal/stubborn than the Labour vote |
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473 
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Post by peterl on Jun 17, 2021 16:50:19 GMT
Just a reminder that the competition closes at 10pm, just over four hours from now. So if you have not yet entered, snap to it and make sure you are "winning here"!
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 18, 2021 6:56:32 GMT
Lib Dem 53% Con 39% Green 4% Lab 2% Rejoin 1% Reform UK 1% Others 0% Well - i think you've comfortably won this competition. That was a very good call. |
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 18, 2021 8:46:37 GMT
Lib Dem 53% Con 39% Green 4% Lab 2% Rejoin 1% Reform UK 1% Others 0% Well - i think you've comfortably won this competition. That was a very good call. Yes of course it was but it was still underestimating what was to come! I make that 9.4 faults for michael2019 , but we wait for an official scorekeeping from peterl. Come on Peter, where are you? I remember getting really hassled at this stage when I was "in charge" of the B&R competition result a couple of years ago. |
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Post by michael2019 on Jun 18, 2021 9:25:55 GMT
Lib Dem 53% Con 39% Green 4% Lab 2% Rejoin 1% Reform UK 1% Others 0% Well - i think you've comfortably won this competition. That was a very good call. Thanks ! Sadly not putting any money on it was a slightly less good call  ! And... I very, very, very nearly did...!!! - as I said before it was just application of the Witney result! (well - in the end plus a bit!) and as I also said you don't know how fast the bandwagon will roll! |
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473
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Post by peterl on Jun 18, 2021 15:22:37 GMT
Okay here are the official results:
michael2019 92%
Roger Harmer 82%
Richard Cromwell 79%
k9 77%
dibs 71%
yellowperil 67%
AJS 66%
conservativeestimate 62%
bigfatron 60%
johnloony 60%
seanryanj 59%
johng 58%
owainsutton 56%
heslingtonian 55%
sirben 55%
johnchanin 53%
sg1 53%
thirdchill 51%
Pete Whitehead 51%
carlton43 49%
manchesterman 49%
alien8ted 48%
European Lefty 47%
Tony Otim 44%
gh 36%
Hope there are no errors, but I didn't get too much sleep last night so its possible.
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 18, 2021 19:07:20 GMT
Well - i think you've comfortably won this competition. That was a very good call. Thanks ! Sadly not putting any money on it was a slightly less good call ! And... I very, very, very nearly did...!!! - as I said before it was just application of the Witney result! (well - in the end plus a bit!) and as I also said you don't know how fast the bandwagon will roll! I think the last point is very important- I reckon a lot of us can claim we were spot on for that point in the cycle when we put our entries in- in those last few days bandwagon took over and we didn't modify our entries to keep up. |
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Post by michael2019 on Jun 18, 2021 20:14:58 GMT
Thanks ! Sadly not putting any money on it was a slightly less good call ! And... I very, very, very nearly did...!!! - as I said before it was just application of the Witney result! (well - in the end plus a bit!) and as I also said you don't know how fast the bandwagon will roll! I think the last point is very important- I reckon a lot of us can claim we were spot on for that point in the cycle when we put our entries in- in those last few days bandwagon took over and we didn't modify our entries to keep up. OK deny me some of my glory ! Of course at whatever point you put in your forecast you need to take account of how things might develop and how long they have to develop! My point on the bandwagon is a slightly different one - as I explained when I was challenged about being out of line with other predictions before the result. I said you didn't know whether there was enough time for it to roll. We are - although we don't like to admit it - herd animals and actually 99.99999% the same genetically. So "suddenly" "everyone" (or a lot of similar people) at a population level will decide to something. As I say an overnight spontaneous uprising takes time and planning! It's a bit like the virus - it seems to be nowhere and then suddenly it is everywhere! And I said when challenged before the result - if it is not the result this week it will be next week! In fact I was a bit ahead of schedule and I probably gave the result as it would have been on Monday! You didn't need to know anything about C&A but just think are the Lib Dems applying the same techniques as before - yes - they have done some polling, asking etc. found out what is on people's minds, and are dealing with it and pumping out a few million leaflets (probably literally!). Simples! If they are doing the same things - as I said before the result see what were the swings before - see Witney - which I applied exactly! It was based on no knowledge of the campaign or C&A. Indeed that may have been an hindrance! Or indeed up to date knowledge - so timing was not a particular factor. With one exception - what are the Lib Dems saying to the media and has it been accurate before - yes but given the situation they are probably playing things down a bit - and that was some confirmation. And the Times article was not available to those that put in their predictions before Wednesday. Now of course if I was that sure - and of course one always claims to be after an election - I should have bet my house on it down the bookies! And there are always countervailing factors - "polling day" for postal votes was some time ago etc. etc. And I was particularly aware of my personal biases and that I have put some money on before and been wrong - well once on the number of seats the Lib Dems would get at the 2010 General! In fact applying the Witney swing gave quite a decent majority so there was a comfortable margin - so that was an even worse decision not to bet on it! And you have to say over 10-1 was exceptionally good value for money but as they say you can't eat value - although you can lay it off. Anyway sorry to witter on to explain to myself why I am not now rich! Anyway I have definitely predicted this week's lottery numbers and know that bitcoin will continue to rise and I am not subject to FOMO or anything... ! |
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! Very unfortunately my predictions on the forum have all been wrong so far! President Bloomberg is noticeable by his absence (well I said it was between him and Sanders for the Democrat nomination two days before he dropped out!) So my "official" prediction (other than for the prediction competition 
! And... I very, very, very nearly did...!!! - as I said before it was just application of the Witney result! (well - in the end plus a bit!) and as I also said you don't know how fast the bandwagon will roll!