Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,730
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jun 15, 2021 8:03:57 GMT
Well I was there today canvassing and the consensus seems wrong to me. I'd go with: LD 48% Con 40% Green 6% Labour 4% Reform 1% Others all less than 0.5% so rounded to 0% but 1% collectively. (hope that works with the rules). Roger, that's very, er, brave, but I do hope you're somewhere near the reality. |
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473 
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Post by peterl on Jun 15, 2021 8:55:02 GMT
Well I was there today canvassing and the consensus seems wrong to me. I'd go with: LD 48% Con 40% Green 6% Labour 4% Reform 1% Others all less than 0.5% so rounded to 0% but 1% collectively. (hope that works with the rules). By all means, I mark generously. No penalties here. And well done for being courageous in your prediction.  |
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Roger Harmer
Lib Dem
Councillor for Acocks Green in Birmingham
Posts: 247
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Post by Roger Harmer on Jun 15, 2021 8:58:48 GMT
Well I was there today canvassing and the consensus seems wrong to me. I'd go with: LD 48% Con 40% Green 6% Labour 4% Reform 1% Others all less than 0.5% so rounded to 0% but 1% collectively. (hope that works with the rules). Roger, that's very, er, brave, but I do hope you're somewhere near the reality. Well its what my long canvassing stint - suitably adjusted for the type of area, who we were calling on etc - implied. Been in this game more than long enough to know that canvass data doesn't always hold true, but one of the big reasons for that in recent years - 'we'd like to vote Lib Dem but will have to tactically vote Tory to stop a Labour Govt' - simply doesn't apply in this particular situation, so I'm pretty hopeful it will. Its also very close to polling day (unlike my previous stint in the seat) which also gives me more confidence. But hey, as I say there are many reasons why it may be wrong, just giving my impression! |
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k9
Non-Aligned
Posts: 126
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Post by k9 on Jun 15, 2021 16:31:02 GMT
My estimation:
LD 45%
Con 42%
Green 6%
Labour 4%
Reform 2%
Others 1%
This is based on the number of party activists in group photos on social media, historic results and unwinding of a personal vote.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 15, 2021 19:41:47 GMT
| Con | 48% | | LD | 38% | | Lab | 6% | | Grn | 6% | | Ref | 2% | | FA | 0% | | R-EU | 0% | | BP | 0% |
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Post by owainsutton on Jun 15, 2021 20:18:26 GMT
Con 51 LD 27 Lab 13 Green 3 Reform 1 Others 0 I'm revising this. From the extent of the confidence from Lib Dem sources, and the extent to which it's stayed very carefully on-message, I think they're closer but no way close to winning. Con 44 LD 34 Lab 13 Green 3 Reform 1 Others 0 |
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Post by bigfatron on Jun 15, 2021 21:12:18 GMT
Con 51 LD 27 Lab 13 Green 3 Reform 1 Others 0 I'm revising this. From the extent of the confidence from Lib Dem sources, and the extent to which it's stayed very carefully on-message, I think they're closer but no way close to winning. Con 44 LD 34 Lab 13 Green 3 Reform 1 Others 0 You know that this STILL adds up to 95%, right? ;-) |
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Post by owainsutton on Jun 15, 2021 21:35:47 GMT
I'm revising this. From the extent of the confidence from Lib Dem sources, and the extent to which it's stayed very carefully on-message, I think they're closer but no way close to winning. Con 44 LD 34 Lab 13 Green 3 Reform 1 Others 0 You know that this STILL adds up to 95%, right? ;-) There's the 0.4% ones getting rounded down, too, though. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Jun 15, 2021 22:52:53 GMT
Rounded prediction for the competition:
LD 43% (win)
Con 43%
Reform 7%
Lab 4%
Grn 2%
Freedom Alliance 0%
Rejoin 0%
Breakthrough 0%
Prediction without rounding:
LD 43.3%
Con 43.2%
Reform 6.8%
Lab 3.6%
Grn 2.2%
Rejoin 0.4%
Freedom Alliance 0.3%
Breakthrough 0.1%
Turnout 58%
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 16, 2021 7:00:47 GMT
Rounded prediction for the competition: LD 43% (win) Con 43% Reform 7% Lab 4% Grn 2% Freedom Alliance 0% Rejoin 0% Breakthrough 0% Prediction without rounding: LD 43.3% Con 43.2% Reform 6.8% Lab 3.6% Grn 2.2% Rejoin 0.4% Freedom Alliance 0.3% Breakthrough 0.1% Turnout 58% Majority of 56? |
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 16, 2021 8:34:11 GMT
Rounded prediction for the competition: LD 43% (win) Con 43% Reform 7% Lab 4% Grn 2% Freedom Alliance 0% Rejoin 0% Breakthrough 0% Prediction without rounding: LD 43.3% Con 43.2% Reform 6.8% Lab 3.6% Grn 2.2% Rejoin 0.4% Freedom Alliance 0.3% Breakthrough 0.1% Turnout 58% Majority of 56? Give the man some leeway -say 10 either side of that 56? |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 16, 2021 13:20:33 GMT
It's amusing how virtually everybody does whole number predictions for the prediction contest, until they're actually asked to do so when they all suddenly feel the need to produce something to X decimal places which they then round to whole numbers
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 16, 2021 14:25:29 GMT
We have so far had 17 members attempt a prediction of this result, and the Tories lead the LDs 13-4.
However, I am encouraged by 2 things:
a) Momentum. The earliest 7 were all for Tory wins, the last ten split 6-4 to the Tories, the latest 5 split 3-2 to the LibDems.
b) there is universal agreement here about the top 2 and all the other candidates are way behind. Nobody seriously expects a breakthrough from another party however named.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,849
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Post by johng on Jun 16, 2021 15:36:22 GMT
My prediction.
Con 44
LD 41
Lab 7
Green 6
Reform 1
Rejoin 0
Freedom 0
Breakthrough 0
(The three 0s each round down to 0, but round to 1 collectively)
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 16, 2021 15:45:51 GMT
You know that this STILL adds up to 95%, right? ;-) There's the 0.4% ones getting rounded down, too, though. That adds a maximum of 2.4% so you're up to 97.4. Where's the remaining 2.6%? |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 16, 2021 15:55:22 GMT
There's the 0.4% ones getting rounded down, too, though. That adds a maximum of 2.4% so you're up to 97.4. Where's the remaining 2.6%? All parties could be x.4 and therfore rounded down, that would only leave him 0.6% short. Or if all were x.49 and rounded down he wouldn't be short at all. Not saying it's likely, but it is mathematically possible. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 16, 2021 15:57:56 GMT
That adds a maximum of 2.4% so you're up to 97.4. Where's the remaining 2.6%? All parties could be x.4 and therfore rounded down, that would only leave him 0.6% short. Or if all were x.49 and rounded down he wouldn't be short at all. Not saying it's likely, but it is mathematically possible. However if the three parties included under "other" are on 0.4% (or 0.49%) each that rounds to 1 not 0 |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 16, 2021 17:05:06 GMT
That adds a maximum of 2.4% so you're up to 97.4. Where's the remaining 2.6%? All parties could be x.4 and therfore rounded down, that would only leave him 0.6% short. Or if all were x.49 and rounded down he wouldn't be short at all. Not saying it's likely, but it is mathematically possible. It would still be out by 1.08% |
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Post by seanryanj on Jun 16, 2021 18:59:16 GMT
Con 47
LD 40
Lab 5.5
GP 4.5
ReF 1.5
Oths 1.5
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Post by owainsutton on Jun 16, 2021 19:09:49 GMT
All parties could be x.4 and therfore rounded down, that would only leave him 0.6% short. Or if all were x.49 and rounded down he wouldn't be short at all. Not saying it's likely, but it is mathematically possible. It would still be out by 1.08% I'm so glad to have given everyone such entertainment. Make it Con 45 LD 35. |
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