Prediction Competition - June 2021

[yellowperil]

Jun 17, 2021 8:11:34 GMT No Offence Alan said:

I predict that @europeanlefty will be closest to the LD share in the East Garioch by-election.

I am happy to think you are probably going to be right even if it means my prediction was shit.

[andrewp]

I’m slightly surprised that there is quite such unanimity over the Old Cleeve result in Somerset. It’s not a natural Lib Dem ward and the 2 Lib Dem’s who won in 2019 have both been around the local area for ages, where as the new candidate hasn’t I don’t think. Of course I suspect most of us realise that the Ind is basically a Conservative who didn’t get selected in 2019, so 2 basically Conservative candidates means the Lib Dem’s might well come through the middle. It’s probably my least confident prediction of the 7 this week.

[yellowperil]

Jun 17, 2021 20:23:38 GMT andrewp said:

I’m slightly surprised that there is quite such unanimity over the Old Cleeve result in Somerset. It’s not a natural Lib Dem ward and the 2 Lib Dem’s who won in 2019 have both been around the local area for ages, where as the new candidate hasn’t I don’t think. Of course I suspect most of us realise that the Ind is basically a Conservative who didn’t get selected in 2019, so 2 basically Conservative candidates means the Lib Dem’s might well come through the middle. It’s probably my least confident prediction of the 7 this week.

Yes, I guess we all thought much the same- and we were right. Just.

[manchesterman]

[yellowperil]

The Fellbridge result will be absolute carnage- I can see my fault score is well over 100 and I think some will be quite a bit further out than me. Clearly the outright winners here are going to be Olympian and Richard Cromwell who wisely stayed away.

[Tony Otim]

Jun 17, 2021 8:11:34 GMT No Offence Alan said:

I predict that @europeanlefty will be closest to the LD share in the East Garioch by-election.

And that's why you don't do the prediction competition😉

[robbienicoll]

Results - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fctvIt3kyfa_COgsvreJT84YTrzX4UiqTZoyIDuCes0/edit?usp=sharing - are now updated. Congratulations to Toylyyev for taking the week and now leading for the month.

[Toylyyev]

Jun 18, 2021 12:36:00 GMT robbienicoll said:

Results - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fctvIt3kyfa_COgsvreJT84YTrzX4UiqTZoyIDuCes0/edit?usp=sharing - are now updated. Congratulations to Toylyyev for taking the week and now leading for the month.

And what looks to be the highest scoring 'best' prediction ever. 

[Tony Otim]

Jun 18, 2021 12:49:52 GMT Toylyyev said:

Jun 18, 2021 12:36:00 GMT robbienicoll said:

Results - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fctvIt3kyfa_COgsvreJT84YTrzX4UiqTZoyIDuCes0/edit?usp=sharing - are now updated. Congratulations to Toylyyev for taking the week and now leading for the month.

And what looks to be the highest scoring 'best' prediction ever. 

Yep - it says something when the best prediction gets over 100 faults..

[yellowperil]

Jun 18, 2021 11:36:30 GMT Tony Otim said:

Jun 17, 2021 8:11:34 GMT No Offence Alan said:

I predict that @europeanlefty will be closest to the LD share in the East Garioch by-election.

And that's why you don't do the prediction competition😉

and there I was wanting him to be right....

[Tony Otim]

Jun 18, 2021 13:43:29 GMT yellowperil said:

Jun 18, 2021 11:36:30 GMT Tony Otim said:

And that's why you don't do the prediction competition😉

and there I was wanting him to be right....

Taking all the results today, I'm sure you've got enough to be happy about anyway...

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Gwynedd is a complete shot in the dark.

CHICHESTER DC; Chichester East
Conservative 35%

Labour 33.3%
Liberal Democrat 31.7%

GWYNEDD UA; Harlech
Plaid Cymru 49%
HUGHES, Martin James (Independent) 32%
BIRKS, Lisa Dawn Louise (No Description) 19%

NORTH LANARKSHIRE UA; Murdostoun
SNP 29%
McKENDRICK, Robert John (Independent) 28.9%
Conservative 19.3%
Labour 16.7%
ARTHUR, Robert Livingston (Independent) 3.3%
Green 1.8%
Independence for Scotland 0.8%
Reform UK 0.2%
McKENDRICK, Robert John (Independent) to win after transfers

RUGBY DC; Wolvey & Shilton
Conservative 64%
Labour 20%
Green 12%
Liberal Democrat 4%

SOMERSET WEST & TAUNTON DC; North Curry & Ruishton
Liberal Democrat 67%
Conservative 27%
Green 6%

SWINDON UA; Priory Vale
Conservative 54%
Labour 28.1%
Green 9.9%
Liberal Democrat 4.7%
MARI, Elena (Independent) 3.3%

[andykernow]

Thanks once again to alien8ted for the template :-)

CHICHESTER DC; Chichester East - Lab Hold
Labour 38%
Conservative 35%
Liberal Democrat 27%

GWYNEDD UA; Harlech - PC gain from Ind
Plaid Cymru 52%
BIRKS, Lisa Dawn Louise (No Description) 33%
HUGHES, Martin James (Independent) 15%


NORTH LANARKSHIRE UA; Murdostoun - Ind to gain seat on transfers
SNP 33%
McKENDRICK, Robert John (Independent) 23%
Conservative 20%
Labour 15%
ARTHUR, Robert Livingston (Independent) 3%
Green 3%
Independence for Scotland 3%
Reform UK 0.2%
s

RUGBY DC; Wolvey & Shilton - CON Hold
Conservative 58%
Labour 24%
Green 10%
Liberal Democrat 8%

SOMERSET WEST & TAUNTON DC; North Curry & Ruishton - LD Hold
Liberal Democrat 53%
Conservative 37%
Green 10%

SWINDON UA; Priory Vale - LAB to gain from Con

Conservative 34%
Labour 44%
Green 14%
Liberal Democrat 4%
MARI, Elena (Independent) 3%

[peterl]

CHICHESTER DC; Chichester East - Con gain from Lab
Conservative 39%
Labour 35%
Liberal Democrat 26%

GWYNEDD UA; Harlech - PC gain from Ind
Plaid Cymru 47%
BIRKS, Lisa Dawn Louise (No Description) 36%
HUGHES, Martin James (Independent) 17%


NORTH LANARKSHIRE UA; Murdostoun - Ind to gain seat on transfers
SNP 29%
McKENDRICK, Robert John (Independent) 27%
Conservative 22%
Labour 10.5%
ARTHUR, Robert Livingston (Independent) 5%
Green 4%
Independence for Scotland 2%
Reform UK 0.5%

RUGBY DC; Wolvey & Shilton - CON Hold
Conservative 53%
Labour 27%
Green 14%
Liberal Democrat 6%

SOMERSET WEST & TAUNTON DC; North Curry & Ruishton - LD Hold
Liberal Democrat 47%
Conservative 39%
Green 14%

SWINDON UA; Priory Vale - LAB to gain from Con
Labour 40%
Conservative 37%
Green 12%
Liberal Democrat 7%
MARI, Elena (Independent) 4%

[Tony Otim]

Chichester:
Con 34.8
Lab 33.5
LD 31.7


Gwynedd:
PC 46.8
Hughes 35.6
Birks 17.6


North Lanarkshire:
SNP 29.9
McKendrick 29.0 (wins on transfers)
Lab 21.9
Con 12.6
Grn 2.9
Arthur 2.0
Ind for Scot 0.9
Reform 0.8


Rugby:
Con 68.9
Lab 15.0
Grn 9.6
LD 6.5


Somerset West & Taunton:
LD 60.5
Con 27.6
Grn 11.9


Swindon:
Con 50.7
Lab 33.2
Grn 6.5
LD 5.3
Mari 4.3

[Richard Cromwell]

Chichester East, Chichester

LAB	35%
CON	33%
LD	32%

Harlech, Gwynedd

PC	50%
IND - Birks	35%
IND - Hughes	15%

Murdostoun, North Lanarkshire

SNP	27%
IND - McKendrick	26%	Wins on transfers
CON	25%
LAB	11%
GRN	6%
IND - Arthur	3%
Independence	2%
Reform	0%

Wolvey & Shilton, Rugby

GRN	35%
CON	33%
LAB	25%
LD	7%

North Curry & Ruishton, Somerset West & Taunton

LD	51%
GRN	25%
CON	24%

Priory Vale, Swindon

LAB	40%
CON	32%
GRN	19%
IND	5%
LD	4%

[rightleaning]

Chichester: Chichester East - C 39, Lab 36, LD 25

Gwynedd: Harlech - PC 44, Hughes 41, Birks 15

North Lanarkshire: Murdostoun - SNP 30, McKendrick 28 (wins on transfers), Lab 19, C 15, Gn 4, Arthur 2, Ind for Scot 1, Reform 1

Rugby:Wolvey & Shilton - C 64, Lab 15, Gn 15, LD 6

Somerset West & Taunton: North Curry & Ruishton - LD 64, C 26, Gn 10

Swindon: Priory Vale - C 50, Lab 32, Gn 9, LD 5, Mari 4

[greenhert]

Chichester DC, Chichester East: Conservative 38, Labour 35, Liberal Democrats 27. Conservative gain from Labour.
Gwynedd UA, Harlech: Plaid Cymru 52, Independent (Hughes) 38, Lisa Birks 10. Plaid Cymru gain from Independent.
North Lanarkshire UA, Murdostoun (1st preferences): SNP 32, Independent (McKendrick) 31.5, Labour 16, Conservative 14, Green 3, Independent (Arthur) 2, Independence for Scotland 1, Reform UK 0.5. Independent (McKendrick) gain from another Independent on transfers.
Rugby BC, Wolvey & Shilton: Conservative 59, Green 21, Labour 14, Liberal Democrats 6.
Somerset West & Taunton DC, North Curry & Ruishton: Liberal Democrats 58, Conservative 33, Green 9.
Swindon UA, Priory Vale: Conservative 54, Labour 30, Green 7, Liberal Democrats 6, Independent (Mari) 3.

[andrewp]

Chichester, Chichester East LD 37, Con 35, Lab 28
Gwynedd, Harlech. Hughes 44, PC 41, Birks 15
North Lanarkshire, Muroustoun SNP 26, McKEndrick 25, Lab 22, Con 14.5, Arthur 6, Green 4: Ind for Scotland 2, Reform Uk 0.5 MCKendrick to win on transfers
Rugby, Wolvey and Shilton Con 64, Lab 15, Green 11, LD 10
Somerset West and Taunton, North Curry and Ruishton LD 55, Con 35, Green 10
Swindon, Priory Vale. Con 55, Lab 30, LD 7, Green 4, ind 4

[Robert Waller]

Chichester: Chichester East - C 39, Lab 38, LD 23

Gwynedd: Harlech - PC 37, Hughes 43, Birks 20

North Lanarkshire: Murdostoun - SNP 32, McKendrick 27 (wins on transfers), Lab 18, C 15, Gn 4, Arthur 2, Ind for Scot 1, Reform 1

Rugby:Wolvey & Shilton - C 69, Lab 17, Gn 7, LD 7

Somerset West & Taunton: North Curry & Ruishton - LD 60, C 28, Gn 12

Swindon: Priory Vale - C 54, Lab 29, Gn 7, LD 6, Mari 4