Prediction Competition - June 2021

[greenhert]

Jun 11, 2021 8:21:32 GMT Richard Cromwell said:

I am once again saved from coming last on a technicality. Result!

I also mistakenly believed that the Liberal Democrat vote would collapse in Grove Green, or at least take a hit, the way it did in Islington and Lambeth at the London Assembly elections to the Greens' benefit primarily. No such luck this time.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

ABERDEENSHIRE UA; East Garioch
Conservative 41%
SNP 33%
Green 12%
Liberal Democrat 11%
Labour 3%
(Conservative win after transfers)

KENT CC; Elham Valley
Conservative 66%
Green 25%
Labour 7.5%
EGERTON, Joe (Independent) 1.5%

MID DEVON DC; Upper Culm
Liberal Democrat 47%
Conservative 40%
Labour 9%
Green 4%

NORFOLK CC; Sewell
Labour 58%
Conservative 25%
Green 11%
Liberal Democrat 6%

NORWICH DC; Sewell
Labour 49%
Green 28%
Conservative 16%
Liberal Democrat 7%

SOMERSET WEST & TAUNTON DC; Old Cleeve & District
Liberal Democrat 39.5%
Conservative 34.5%
LILLIS, Richard Patrick (No Description) 26%

TANDRIDGE DC; Fellbridge
Conservative 71%
MOORE, Judy (Independent) 8%
Labour 7.2%
Liberal Democrat 7%
TAYLOR, Mark Deane (Independent) 6.8%

[Tony Otim]

Aberdeenshire: Con 34.6; SNP 31.2; Grn 16.9; LD 14.2; Lab 3.1 (Con win on transfers)
Kent: Con 54.4; Grn 28.4; Lab 11.7; Egerton 5.5
Mid Devon: Con 39.2; LD 35.5; Grn 14.6; Lab 10.7
Norfolk: Lab 56.0; Grn 20.8; Con 16.4; LD 6.8
Norwich: Lab 51.5; Grn 24.5; Con 16.7; LD 7.3
Somerset West & Taunton: LD 41.8; Con 36.9; Ind 21.3
Tandridge: Con 56.9; LD 13.7; Taylor 11.7; Lab 9.7; Moore 8.0

[Pete Whitehead]

Jun 14, 2021 9:41:19 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

NORFOLK CC; Sewell
Labour 58%
Conservative 25%
Green 11%
Liberal Democrat 6%

NORWICH DC; Sewell
Labour 49%
Green 28%
Conservative 16%
Liberal Democrat 7%

What am I missing here?

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Jun 14, 2021 10:23:06 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Jun 14, 2021 9:41:19 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

NORFOLK CC; Sewell
Labour 58%
Conservative 25%
Green 11%
Liberal Democrat 6%

NORWICH DC; Sewell
Labour 49%
Green 28%
Conservative 16%
Liberal Democrat 7%

What am I missing here?

 One is for the District Council and the other is for the County Council.

[Pete Whitehead]

Jun 14, 2021 10:32:54 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

Jun 14, 2021 10:23:06 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

What am I missing here?

 One is for the District Council and the other is for the County Council.

Obviously, but why do you expect such dramatically different performances for the various parties (especially the Greens) in the two different contests?

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Jun 14, 2021 10:39:22 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Jun 14, 2021 10:32:54 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

 One is for the District Council and the other is for the County Council.

Obviously, but why do you expect such dramatically different performances for the various parties (especially the Greens) in the two different contests?

Based it on previous voting in the area, seen from afar without any knowledge. I could be right or very very wrong, we'll see. 

[andykernow]

Thanks to alien8sted for the template.....

ABERDEENSHIRE UA; East Garioch
SNP 42%
Conservative 35%
Green 13%
Liberal Democrat 6%
Labour 4%
SNP To win after transfers

KENT CC; Elham Valley
Conservative 70%
Green 22%
Labour 6%
EGERTON, Joe (Independent) 4%

MID DEVON DC; Upper Culm
Liberal Democrat 41%
Conservative 39%
Labour 12%
Green 8%

NORFOLK CC; Sewell
Labour 52%
Conservative 31%
Green 11%
Liberal Democrat 6%

NORWICH DC; Sewell
Labour 51%
Green 30%
Conservative 10%
Liberal Democrat 9%

SOMERSET WEST & TAUNTON DC; Old Cleeve & District
Liberal Democrat 42%
Conservative 32%
LILLIS, Richard Patrick (No Description) 26%

TANDRIDGE DC; Fellbridge
Conservative 74%
Labour 10%
Liberal Democrat 8%
MOORE, Judy (Independent) 6%
TAYLOR, Mark Deane (Independent) 2%

[peterl]

ABERDEENSHIRE UA; East Garioch
Conservative 38%
SNP 29%
Liberal Democrat 15%
Green 14%
Labour 4%
(Conservative win after transfers)

KENT CC; Elham Valley
Conservative 65%
Green 25%
Labour 6%
EGERTON, Joe (Independent) 4%

MID DEVON DC; Upper Culm
Liberal Democrat 48%
Conservative 42%
Green 6%
Labour 4%

NORFOLK CC; Sewell
Labour 47%
Green 25%
Conservative 23%
Liberal Democrat 5%

NORWICH DC; Sewell
Labour 41%
Green 32%
Conservative 19%
Liberal Democrat 8%

SOMERSET WEST & TAUNTON DC; Old Cleeve & District
Liberal Democrat 42%
Conservative 33%
LILLIS, Richard Patrick (No Description) 25%

TANDRIDGE DC; Fellbridge
Conservative 64%
MOORE, Judy (Independent) 14.5%
Liberal Democrat 8%
TAYLOR, Mark Deane (Independent) 7.5%
Labour 6%

[Robert Waller]

Aberdeenshire: Con 39; SNP 36; Grn 12; LD 10; Lab 3 (Con win on transfers)

Kent: Con 63; Grn 25; Lab 10; Egerton 2

Mid Devon: Con 39; LD 41; Grn 13; Lab 7

Norfolk: Lab 58; Grn 22; Con 15; LD 5

Norwich: Lab 52; Grn 25; Con 16; LD 7

Somerset West & Taunton: LD 45; Con 40; Ind 15

Tandridge: Con 60; LD 16; Taylor 4; Lab 7; Moore 13

[greenhert]

Aberdeenshire UA, East Garioch (1st preference votes): Conservative 37, SNP 34, Liberal Democrats 14, Green 10, Labour 5. Conservative gain from Liberal Democrat on transfers.

Kent CC, Elham Valley: Conservative 61, Green 25, Labour 10, Independent (Egerton) 4.

Mid Devon CC, Upper Culm: Liberal Democrats 45, Conservative 42, Green 8, Labour 5.

Norfolk CC< Sewell: Labour 56, Green 24, Conservative 16, Liberal Democrats 4.

Norwich BC, Sewell: Labour 52, Green 27, Conservative 15, Liberal Democrats 6.

Somerset West & Taunton DC, Old Cleeve & District: Liberal Democrats 49, Conservative 40, Richard Lillis 11.

Tandridge DC, Fellbridge: Conservative 54, Liberal Democrats 23, Independent (Moore) 12, Labour 8, Independent (Taylor) 3.

[andrewp]

Aberdeenshire, East Garloch Con 36, SNP 35, LD 14, Green 11, Lab 4. Con to win on transfers

Kent, Elham Valley. Con 55, Green 32, Lab 10, Ind 3

Mid Devon, Upper Culm LD 47, Con 39, Green 8, Lab 6

Norfolk, Sewell Lab 54, Green 23, Con 16, LD 7

Norwich, Sewell. Lab 54, Green 23, Con 16, LD 7

Somerset West and Taunton LD 42, Con 38, Ind 20

Tandridge, Felbridge. Con 54, LD 25, Moore 12, Lab 5, Taylor 4

[Toylyyev]

Aberdeenshire UA, East Garioch: Conservative 35.5, Labour 3, Liberal Democrat 14, Green 14.5, SNP 33. Conservative win on transfers.

Kent CC, Elham Valley: Conservative 59, Labour 10, Independent 7, Green 24.

Mid Devon DC, Upper Culm: Conservative 40, Labour 14, Liberal Democrat 40, Green 6.

Norfolk CC, Sewell: Conservative 14, Labour 47, Liberal Democrat 3.5, Green 35.5.

Norwich DC, Sewell: Conservative 13, Labour 42, Liberal Democrat 3.5, Green 41.5.

Somerset West and Taunton DC, Old Cleeve & District: Conservative 40, Liberal Democrat 35, No Decscription 25.

Tandridge DC, Felbridge: Conservative 60, Labour 5, Liberal Democrat 11, Independent Moore 5, Independent Taylor 19.

[rightleaning]

Aberdeenshire: C 42; SNP 36; Gn 9; LD 9; Lab 4 (Con win on transfers)

Kent: C 65; Gn 21; Lab 9; Egerton 5

Mid Devon: C 42; LD 40; Gn 11; Lab 7

Norfolk: Lab 54; Gn 22; C 20; LD 4

Norwich: Lab 50; Gn 34; C 12; LD 4

Somerset West & Taunton: LD 42; C 40; Ind 18

Tandridge: C 65; LD 7; Taylor 4; Lab 9; Moore 15

[yellowperil]

Aberdeenshire, East Garloch:Con39, Lab 4, LD 13, SNP 35, SGP 9. Con win on transfers.
Kent, Elham Valley: Con 58, Lab 7, Green 25, Ind 10. 
Mid Devon,Upper Culm:Con 40, Lab 9, LD 41, Green 10.
Norfolk, Sewell: Con 13, Lab 53, LD 5, Green 29.
Norwich, Sewell: Con 12, Lab 52, LD 7, Green 29.
Somerset West & Taunton:Con 40, LD 41, ND 19.
Tandridge:Con 60, Lab 7, LD 13, Ind Moore  10, Ind Taylor 10.

[Deleted]

East Garioch (Aberdeenshire): Con 35 LD 30 SNP 15 Grn 15 Lab 5 (Con GAIN from LD)
Elham Valley (Kent): Con 60 Grn 20 Ind 15 Lab 5
Upper Culm (Mid Devon): Con 45 LD 40 Grn 12 Lab 3
Sewell (Norfolk): Lab 55 Grn 25 Con 16 LD 4
Sewell (Norwich): Lab 55 Grn 25 Con 14 LD 6
Old Cleeve & District (Somerset West & Taunton): LD 42 Con 33 Ind 25
Fellbridge (Tandridge): Con 65 LD 15 Ind (Taylor) 9 Ind (Moore) 9 Lab 2

[iainbhx]

Aberdeenshire, East Garloch: Con 38, SNP 36, Grn 12, LDm 10, Lab 4. Con to win on transfers
Kent, Elham Valley:. Con 56, Grn 28, Lab 12, Ind (Egerton) 4
Mid Devon, Upper Culm: LDm 44, Con 40, Grn 9, Lab 7
Norfolk, Sewell : Lab 52, Green 23, Con 17, LD 8
Norwich, Sewell. Lab 52, Green 25, Con 16, LD 7
Somerset West and Taunton, Old Cleeve & District: LD 41, Con 36, Ind (Liliis) 23
Tandridge, Felbridge: Con 54, LD 22, Moore 14, Lab 7, Taylor 3

[No Offence Alan]

I predict that @europeanlefty will be closest to the LD share in the East Garioch by-election.

[robbienicoll]

12 entries this week, missing olympian95 and Richard Cromwell. All on time, but andykernow receives 2 faults for going over in Elham Valley.

East Garioch, Aberdeenshire: 11 Conservatives ahead on first preferences and overall with andykernow SNP ahead on both. Either winner represents a gain from the Liberal Democrats.
Elham Valley, Kent: 100% Conservative hold, with majorities ranging from 23% (andrewp) to 48% (andykernow).
Upper Culm, Mid Devon: 8 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, with European Lefty, Right Leaning, Tony Otim and Toylyyev Conservative hold.
Sewell, Norfolk: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 11.5% (Toylyyev) to 36% (Robert Waller).
Sewell, Norwich: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 0.5% (Toylyyev) to 31% (andrewp).
Old Cleeve and District, Somerset West and Taunton: 11 Liberal Democrat hold, with Toylyyev Conservative gain (albeit with a 0% majority).
Fellbridge, Tandridge: 100% Conservative hold, with majorities ranging from 29% over Liberal Democrats (andrewp) to 64% over Labour (andykernow).

Results are available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fctvIt3kyfa_COgsvreJT84YTrzX4UiqTZoyIDuCes0/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[Richard Cromwell]

Sorry for missing it this time. I'm having one of those weeks where you're never sure what day it is.