Prediction Competition - June 2021

[robbienicoll]

There appears to be 11 by-elections during June along with 3 postponed polls and 1 postponed by-election - a total of 15 seats.

- 2 by-elections on 10 June
- 3 by-elections on 17 June plus 3 postponed polls and 1 postponed by-election for a total of 7 contests
- 6 by-elections on 24 June

1 by-election, 1 of the postponed polls and the postponed by-election are for District Councils previously contested last month
4 by-elections are for District Councils last contested in 2019
2 of the postponed polls are for County Councils previously contested last month
1 by-election is for a Unitary Authority contested last month
2 are in London Boroughs last contested in 2018
2 are for Scottish authorities last contested in 2017 and
1 is in a Welsh Council last contested in 2017

Labour defend 3 of the by-election seats, 1 following the death of the previous councillor and 2 a resignation
Liberal Democrats defend 3 seats, 1 following the death of the previous councillor and 2 a resignation
Conservatives defend 3 seats including the postponed by-election (although the death of the Labour candidate triggered the postponement), 2 following the death of the previous councillor and 1 of the by-elections a resignation
Independents defend 3 seats following a death and two resignations, one of which had been elected as a Conservative

For the 3 postponed seats, 2 were won by Labour in 2019 and 2017 on last contestation and 1 was won by the Conservatives on last contestation in 2017.

There are 14 Conservative candidates, 12 each for Labour and Liberal Democrats, 9 Green, 2 SNP, 2 Scottish Green, 1 Plaid Cymru, 1 Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition, 1 Reform UK and 1 Independence for Scotland Party along with 8 Independents and 2 No Description contesting 7 seats 
- a total of 65 candidates for 15 seats.

Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of election.

[peterl]

Thursday June 10th

WALTHAM FOREST Grove Green
Lab 53, Lib Dem 22, Green 13, Con 10, TUSC 2

WALTHAM FOREST Lea Bridge
Lab 59, Green 17, Con 12, Lib Dem 7, Ind 5

[relique]

Good luck to the competitors. I'm afraid I shall be playing in a different category for the french départementales & régionales

[robbienicoll]

With thanks to andrewteale, there's an additional contest in Wolvey and Shilton, Rugby (Con defence) on the 24th. The OP has been updated to include this.

[Robert Waller]

Thursday June 10th

WALTHAM FOREST Grove Green
Lab 56, Lib Dem 20, Green 14, Con 9, TUSC 1

WALTHAM FOREST Lea Bridge
Lab 61, Green 19, Con 15, Lib Dem 3, Ind 2

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

WALTHAM FOREST LBC; Grove Green
Labour 42%
Liberal Democrat 30%
Green 18%
Conservative 8.9%
TUSC 1.1%

WALTHAM FOREST LBC; Lea Bridge
Labour 54%
Green 26%
Conservative 13%
Liberal Democrat 5.5%
WEISS (Independent) 1.5%

[andykernow]

Thursday June 10th

WALTHAM FOREST Grove Green
Lab 55, Lib Dem 22, Green 12, Con 8, TUSC 3

WALTHAM FOREST Lea Bridge
Lab 55, Green 20, Con 12, Lib Dem 9, Ind 4

[Richard Cromwell]

Grove Green, Waltham Forest:

LAB	50%
LD	19%
GRN	19%
CON	11%
TUSC	1%

Lea Bridge, Waltham Forest:

LAB	62%
GRN	22%
CON	7%
IND	5%
LD	4%

[Deleted]

Grove Green (Waltham Forest): Lab 50 LD 20 Grn 15 Con 14 TUSC 1
Lea Bridge (Waltham Forest): Lab 55 Grn 20 Con 10 LD 10 Ind 5

[iainbhx]

Waltham Forest LBC - Grove Green Lab 47 LDm 26, Grn 16, Con 9 TUSC 2
Waltham Forest LBC - Lea Bridge Lab 58 Grn 20 Con 15 LDm 5 Ind 2

[yellowperil]

Waltham Forest, Grove Green: Con 9, Lab 50, LD 28, GP 12, TUSC 1
Waltham Forest, Lea Bridge: Con 8, Lab 60, LD 9, GP 19, Ind 4

[Tony Otim]

Grove Green: Lab 51.4; LD 26.8; Grn 11.8; Con 7.7; TUSC 2.3
Lea Bridge: Lab 56.1; Grn 21.5; Con 10.3; LD 7.3; Weiss 4.8

[Toylyyev]

Waltham Forest LBC,
Grove Green: Conservative 6.5, Labour 47.5, Liberal Democrat 27, Green 16 , TUSC 3.
Lea Bridge: Conservative 9, Labour 51, Liberal Democrat 7, Green 30, Independent 3.

[rightleaning]

Grove Green (Waltham Forest): Lab 54 LD 17 Gn 14 Con 14 TUSC 1
Lea Bridge (Waltham Forest): Lab 59 Gn 18 Con 10 LD 8 Ind 5

[andrewp]

Grove Green Lab 49, LD 27, Green 15, Con 8, TuSC 1
Lea Bridge Lab 62, Green 16, Con 11, LD8, Ind 3

[olympian95]

Grove Green Lab 47, LD 31, Green 14, Con 6, Tusc 2
Lea Bridge Lab 60, Green 18, Con 13, LD 5, Ind 4

[greenhert]

Waltham Forest LBC, Grove Green: Labour 52, Green 26, Liberal Democrats 15, Conservative 7, TUSC 2.
Waltham Forest LBC, Lea Bridge: Labour 56, Green 21, Conservative 12, Liberal Democrats 8, Independent 3.

[robbienicoll]

There are 14 entries to open the month. Greenhert receives 2x25 faults for posting two and a half hours over the deadline, and a further 2 for going slightly over in Grove Green.

Grove Green, Waltham Forest: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 12% (alien8ted) to 37% (Right Leaning), both over the Liberal Democrats.
Lea Bridge, Waltham Forest: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 21% (Toylyyev) to 46% (andrewp), both over the Greens.

Results are available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LQNDRWwUZo72HIgIo_vVb7ptBFaqzrDV0b1yvG14q84/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[Robert Waller]

I think congratulations for the week are due to Andykernow, who if I’m not mistaken may well be a debutant ... if so, especially creditable and pleasing!

[Richard Cromwell]

I am once again saved from coming last on a technicality. Result!