sirbenjamin
IFP
True fame is reading your name written in graffiti, but without the words 'is a wanker' after it.
Posts: 4,979 
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Post by sirbenjamin on Apr 6, 2021 21:21:04 GMT
And this is essentially what it comes down to. There have been effective anti-Tory pacts before, because the electorate has voted for the candidate who can most successfully beat the Tories. This has not required any party to stand down. Voters are smart enough to vote strategically if they want to stop somebody winning. As was proved in 1997 in particular, with some notable exceptions (e.g. Bridgwater, Wells).
There was a sense of unifying Toryphobia across much of the country in 1997, which resulted in implicit collusion at the ballot box.
In 2021 this phenomena is largely restricted to social media.
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Merseymike
Independent
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Post by Merseymike on Apr 6, 2021 21:31:56 GMT
Labour hit rock bottom in these kinds of seats generally in 2005-10 though before being revived by the LDs joining the Coalition. Which gave them an insanely favorable vote distribution under fptp and gave the Tories a fixation on changibg the redistribution rules. It appears odd to me that there have been more than 6,000 Labour voters consistently in this seat for the past 20 years despite Labour having zero chance of winning here but in 2010 less than half of this core vote turned out unlike every other recent election. That says to me there was something more than national issues behind the 2010 result. Labour did very badly in other seats near here too - the results in Maidenhead, Wycombe and Beaconsfield were equally bad but this one had a lower numerical base. The Labour vote here was always concentrated in Chesham and it pretty much collapsed. |
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 6, 2021 21:32:09 GMT
Labour hit rock bottom in these kinds of seats generally in 2005-10 though before being revived by the LDs joining the Coalition. Which gave them an insanely favorable vote distribution under fptp and gave the Tories a fixation on changibg the redistribution rules. It appears odd to me that there have been more than 6,000 Labour voters consistently in this seat for the past 20 years despite Labour having zero chance of winning here but in 2010 less than half of this core vote turned out unlike every other recent election. That says to me there was something more than national issues behind the 2010 result. While it was slightly more severe in this seat Labour did very badly in lots of wealthy commuter belt seats in 2010 before recovering a bit in 2015. It seems pretty obvious that Gordon Brown played very badly in seats like this and that the financial crash had a big impact. |
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bsjmcr
Non-Aligned
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Post by bsjmcr on Apr 7, 2021 1:01:55 GMT
It appears odd to me that there have been more than 6,000 Labour voters consistently in this seat for the past 20 years despite Labour having zero chance of winning here but in 2010 less than half of this core vote turned out unlike every other recent election. That says to me there was something more than national issues behind the 2010 result. While it was slightly more severe in this seat Labour did very badly in lots of wealthy commuter belt seats in 2010 before recovering a bit in 2015. It seems pretty obvious that Gordon Brown played very badly in seats like this and that the financial crash had a big impact. So no issues with the candidate then? I always wonder this in these sorts of cases. Hemel Hempstead is another one which seems 'too bad to be true' which makes me think if it is candidate issues* or if the incumbent was extremely popular after 1 term, quite a shocking result given Labour lost it by just 499 votes in 2005 and ended up in 3rd in 2010 with a 13,000 majority for Sir Mike Penning, while Labour shed over 8,000 votes/declined almost 20% - apparently it was the highest swing in 2010. *Bassetlaw being a prime example of this - highest 2019 swing of course, <5,000 Lab majority -> 14,000 Tory majority. Everyone also talks about nearby Mansfield but not enough talk about Telford - Lucy Allan was first elected on tiny majorities for her first two elections, then suddenly a 10,000 majority, again makes you wonder if it is just Brexit, a sudden increase in popularity for her or Labour candidate unpopularity. Back to Chesham, I agree HS2 will be a key issue and the worst thing the Tories can do for their own chances is select a plastic 'get Brexit done' candidate to fill the lobbies. Are there any former MPs that are being touted with a possible return? a la Hartlepool? |
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Post by Andrew_S on Apr 7, 2021 1:41:22 GMT
John Bercow...
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
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Post by Foggy on Apr 7, 2021 2:22:41 GMT
And this is essentially what it comes down to. There have been effective anti-Tory pacts before, because the electorate has voted for the candidate who can most successfully beat the Tories. This has not required any party to stand down. Voters are smart enough to vote strategically if they want to stop somebody winning. As was proved in 1997 in particular, with some notable exceptions (e.g. Bridgwater, Wells). One of those is a much better example that the other. Just because they're next to each other on the map doesn't mean you should expect them to behave in the same way. Otherwise all elections in non-archipelago countries would be very boring indeed!  |
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Apr 7, 2021 7:50:34 GMT
It appears odd to me that there have been more than 6,000 Labour voters consistently in this seat for the past 20 years despite Labour having zero chance of winning here but in 2010 less than half of this core vote turned out unlike every other recent election. That says to me there was something more than national issues behind the 2010 result. While it was slightly more severe in this seat Labour did very badly in lots of wealthy commuter belt seats in 2010 before recovering a bit in 2015. It seems pretty obvious that Gordon Brown played very badly in seats like this and that the financial crash had a big impact. Vaguely interesting to speculate about what might have happened in such seats in a 2007 election that never was. |
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Post by carlton43 on Apr 7, 2021 8:35:43 GMT
While it was slightly more severe in this seat Labour did very badly in lots of wealthy commuter belt seats in 2010 before recovering a bit in 2015. It seems pretty obvious that Gordon Brown played very badly in seats like this and that the financial crash had a big impact. So no issues with the candidate then? I always wonder this in these sorts of cases. Hemel Hempstead is another one which seems 'too bad to be true' which makes me think if it is candidate issues* or if the incumbent was extremely popular after 1 term, quite a shocking result given Labour lost it by just 499 votes in 2005 and ended up in 3rd in 2010 with a 13,000 majority for Sir Mike Penning, while Labour shed over 8,000 votes/declined almost 20% - apparently it was the highest swing in 2010. *Bassetlaw being a prime example of this - highest 2019 swing of course, <5,000 Lab majority -> 14,000 Tory majority. Everyone also talks about nearby Mansfield but not enough talk about Telford - Lucy Allan was first elected on tiny majorities for her first two elections, then suddenly a 10,000 majority, again makes you wonder if it is just Brexit, a sudden increase in popularity for her or Labour candidate unpopularity. Back to Chesham, I agree HS2 will be a key issue and the worst thing the Tories can do for their own chances is select a plastic 'get Brexit done' candidate to fill the lobbies. Are there any former MPs that are being touted with a possible return? a la Hartlepool? This is nearly always issues related or demographic change, and very rarely candidate related. Most electors have little or no knowledge of their MP and are voting for or against a particular party, potential PM or big issue. I know Mansfield, Telford and Bassetlaw and feel certain that each has a marked demographic change, and each would be Corbyn averse and Brexit friendly, so all trends pulling together to magnify an effect. The majorities may well decrease but I don't see Labour getting even close to regaining them in current climate. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 7, 2021 8:44:35 GMT
There was a very poor choice of candidate for Hemel in 2010 so it was a factor there but clearly not the only factor or even the main one - as has been mentioned Labour did especially badly in Hertfordshire that year (Hemel may have had the biggest swing but I think Hertfordshire overall was the county with the biggest Lab-Con swing at that election (possibly second after Staffs)) and there were huge swings against Labour in other Herts seats where candidates weren't really a factor. I've no idea if the candidate here was a factor - I hadn't previously noted actually how much Labour's vote dropped then. One thing worth noting is that Nick Clegg comes from this constituency so Cleggmania may have actually had some pull here
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 7, 2021 11:48:45 GMT
Might be also worth pointing out that Labour has almost totally collapsed at local level in HH in the last two decades - even whilst they have come back from near-extinction in councillor terms in both Watford and W/H. So the 2010 result may have been due partly to specific factors in that election, but also pointed to an underlying weakness that has become more obvious since.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Apr 8, 2021 10:04:59 GMT
Are we going to have a poll for this by-election?
Considering some seem to hold out hopes for the Lib Dems.
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
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Post by Chris from Brum on Apr 8, 2021 11:05:14 GMT
Are we going to have a poll for this by-election? Considering some seem to hold out hopes for the Lib Dems. It's a pretty long shot for us, but better than the other two by-elections. I might just check the odds ... |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Apr 8, 2021 11:07:07 GMT
Northern Independence Party gain.
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 8, 2021 11:19:41 GMT
Well they have as much chance of that here as in Hartlepool - and might even get roughly as many votes too.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Apr 8, 2021 15:30:37 GMT
Well they have as much chance of that here as in Hartlepool - and might even get roughly as many votes too.
What the Lib Dems?  |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 8, 2021 15:32:37 GMT
Well they have as much chance of that here as in Hartlepool - and might even get roughly as many votes too. They might do well in parts of Chesham which resemble East Lancashire |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Apr 8, 2021 15:48:10 GMT
Well they have as much chance of that here as in Hartlepool - and might even get roughly as many votes too. They might do well in parts of Chesham which resemble East Lancashire Banglachesh. |
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Apr 9, 2021 6:31:57 GMT
Was there an obvious reason why Labour's vote was as low as 2,942 (5.6%) at the 2010 General Election? I appreciate Labour have never done well in this seat but that represented a decline from 6,610 (14%) in 2005 and the Labour vote went back up to 6,712 (12.7%) in 2015, 11,374 (20.6%) in 2017 and 7,166 (12.9%). Labour's 2010 result looks erroneous to me unless there were some candidate issues I have long forgotten. When did HS2 get into public consciousness? I vaguely recall it already being an issue when the coalition took over but I'm not sure whether it was a big issue in 2005. But if a head of steam built up between 2005 and 2010 and the local MP had been assiduous in putting herself at the head of opposition then it's not unlikely that the government party took a battering, particularly as the Lib Dems were a far more respectable choice for disgruntled Labour voters than they would be after the election. |
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Post by yellowperil on Apr 9, 2021 7:16:41 GMT
Was there an obvious reason why Labour's vote was as low as 2,942 (5.6%) at the 2010 General Election? I appreciate Labour have never done well in this seat but that represented a decline from 6,610 (14%) in 2005 and the Labour vote went back up to 6,712 (12.7%) in 2015, 11,374 (20.6%) in 2017 and 7,166 (12.9%). Labour's 2010 result looks erroneous to me unless there were some candidate issues I have long forgotten. When did HS2 get into public consciousness? I vaguely recall it already being an issue when the coalition took over but I'm not sure whether it was a big issue in 2005. But if a head of steam built up between 2005 and 2010 and the local MP had been assiduous in putting herself at the head of opposition then it's not unlikely that the government party took a battering, particularly as the Lib Dems were a far more respectable choice for disgruntled Labour voters than they would be after the election. I do like the idea of HS2 taking time to build up a head of steam.... |
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Post by greenchristian on Apr 9, 2021 7:52:22 GMT
When did HS2 get into public consciousness? I vaguely recall it already being an issue when the coalition took over but I'm not sure whether it was a big issue in 2005. But if a head of steam built up between 2005 and 2010 and the local MP had been assiduous in putting herself at the head of opposition then it's not unlikely that the government party took a battering, particularly as the Lib Dems were a far more respectable choice for disgruntled Labour voters than they would be after the election. I do like the idea of HS2 taking time to build up a head of steam.... Stop trying to derail the conversation. |
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