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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 5, 2021 17:55:41 GMT
Whoever the Tory candidate is, and whoever the next MP is, will have big shoes to fill when you consider their two predecessors here. The only good thing I can think of in terms of Ruth Davidson going to the Lords is that it has surely put paid to the perennial suggestions of her standing for a Westminster seat south of the border. The Alan Curbishley of Tory PPCs. |
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Post by greenhert on Apr 5, 2021 18:05:17 GMT
She also helped get the Autism Act onto the statute books, that is another notable achievement of hers.
May she rest in peace.
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Post by heslingtonian on Apr 5, 2021 18:11:37 GMT
Sorry to hear this news. She appeared on the second day of the BBC's 1992 election coverage at about 2 hours, 31 mins, 20 secs. Yes, I remember the slightly alarming hair. In hindsight it's a little sad to see the late Peter Sissons say to Dame Cheryl "you could be an MP for 40 years if you want to be." |
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Post by minionofmidas on Apr 5, 2021 18:15:19 GMT
She is the first serving female Conservative MP to die since Judith Chaplin in 1993. Very sad. RIP. strange symmetry there - she was also the last female Conservative MP to have sat alongside Chaplin. I must admit she'd never come to my attention - though that's on balance a positive. The reasons why I'd be aware of a backbencher from a true blue seat being rarely good ones. Also too young and cancer is generally an ugly way to go. RIP. |
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Post by justin124 on Apr 5, 2021 18:18:48 GMT
I would have thought the best comparison would be Witney, a rather similar seat I would have thought. That was a 19% swing from Tory to Lib Dem with the Lib Dems starting in third place. That swing would deliver this seat with a large majority. I can assure doubters that while bar charts were not a big thing for the Lib Dems in Witney, they certainly will be here. The barchart reassures Tory switchers that Labour will not win just as much as squeezing the Labour vote. By-elections involving the Lib Dems as a contender are strange things that are fairly divorced from national politics and if the Lib Dems manage to find a strong candidate, then local people may well vote for the candidate that will give the biggest headlines with no danger to the govt. I would expect this to be called as quickly as possible. Can it still be on May 6th? That is what the Tories will do if they can Too late for that. May 20th may be possible. |
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Post by heslingtonian on Apr 5, 2021 18:27:31 GMT
She is the first serving female Conservative MP to die since Judith Chaplin in 1993. Very sad. RIP. strange symmetry there - she was also the last female Conservative MP to have sat alongside Chaplin. I must admit she'd never come to my attention - though that's on balance a positive. The reasons why I'd be aware of a backbencher from a true blue seat being rarely good ones. Also too young and cancer is generally an ugly way to go. RIP. To be fair she wasn't a backbencher for most of her Parliamentary career. She reached the Cabinet as Secretary of State for Wales and was also a Minister (I'm wanting to say Employment Minister but not 100% certain) in John Major's Government. She must have been one of the last MPs who served as Ministers in John Major's Government. I can think of Liam Fox but not many others. |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Apr 5, 2021 18:34:06 GMT
strange symmetry there - she was also the last female Conservative MP to have sat alongside Chaplin. I must admit she'd never come to my attention - though that's on balance a positive. The reasons why I'd be aware of a backbencher from a true blue seat being rarely good ones. Also too young and cancer is generally an ugly way to go. RIP. To be fair she wasn't a backbencher for most of her Parliamentary career. She reached the Cabinet as Secretary of State for Wales and was also a Minister (I'm wanting to say Employment Minister but not 100% certain) in John Major's Government. She must have been one of the last MPs who served as Ministers in John Major's Government. I can think of Liam Fox but not many others. There are a few others. Sir Paul Beresford, John Redwood, Edward Leigh, Greg Knight, David Davis, Andrew Mitchell, Oliver Heald |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Apr 5, 2021 21:50:32 GMT
The tributes to Cheryl Gillan are very warm across the political spectrum. With several very warm tributes from female Labour MPs.
Her work on Autism is mentioned a lot.
Several members from the 2015,17 and 19 intakes particularly mention how helpful and welcoming she was to new MPs
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Post by seanryanj on Apr 5, 2021 23:37:49 GMT
I have a friend who said she never replied to him!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2021 4:05:32 GMT
To be fair she wasn't a backbencher for most of her Parliamentary career. She reached the Cabinet as Secretary of State for Wales and was also a Minister (I'm wanting to say Employment Minister but not 100% certain) in John Major's Government. She must have been one of the last MPs who served as Ministers in John Major's Government. I can think of Liam Fox but not many others. There are a few others. Sir Paul Beresford, [Sir] John Redwood, [Sir] Edward Leigh, [Sir] Greg Knight, David Davis, Andrew Mitchell, [Sir] Oliver Heald If you're going to do it for one...  |
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Apr 6, 2021 7:27:06 GMT
With regard to the actual by-election (when it is held and all in due time and course) this will provide a test of the so called "Let's get the Conservatives out in 2024" arguement that has been heightened on social media thanks to the Conservative leads of late in the polls. Namely, the Greens cannot win this pending by-election and in all reality neither can Labour, therefore should they stand down and allow the Liberal Democrats a clear run (and increase the likelihood of a Con LOSS) or stand and therefore make it an almost certain Con HOLD.
If the latter happens, then like Sir Keir, I believe that the next election will be held on May 4th 2023, with the new boundaries in place, voter ID laws in place and the Prime Minister calling the election at his choosing (and that the Conservatives will win their third complete term in office, and extend their governance of the United Kingdom for a potential 28 years since 2010)
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 6, 2021 7:39:31 GMT
With regard to the actual by-election (when it is held and all in due time and course) this will provide a test of the so called "Let's get the Conservatives out in 2024" arguement that has been heightened on social media thanks to the Conservative leads of late in the polls. Namely, the Greens cannot win this pending by-election and in all reality neither can Labour, therefore should they stand down and allow the Liberal Democrats a clear run (and increase the likelihood of a Con LOSS) or stand and therefore make it an almost certain Con HOLD. If the latter happens, then like Sir Keir, I believe that the next election will be held on May 4th 2023, with the new boundaries in place, voter ID laws in place and the Prime Minister calling the election at his choosing (and that the Conservatives will win their third complete term in office, and extend their governance of the United Kingdom for a potential 28 years since 2010) No, let's not have this electoral pact nonsense at the moment. And even if the Tories did win in 2023 or 2024 it wouldn't be a 15 years term. |
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Apr 6, 2021 8:08:26 GMT
I don't expect Labour to stand down. They *could* choose to soft-pedal any campaigning, as could the Greens. But whether that will happen remains to be seen.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 6, 2021 8:17:24 GMT
The obvious big local issue is HS2, which cuts straight through the constituency, tunnelling under Chalfont St Giles, skirting the edge of Amersham Old Town, and emerging from the tunnel in a portal between Great Missenden and South Heath. Cheryl Gillan was an adamant opponent. Construction is well underway at the moment.
The Conservative candidate is surely bound to support government policy, aren't they?
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Apr 6, 2021 8:17:27 GMT
There are a few others. Sir Paul Beresford, [Sir] John Redwood, [Sir] Edward Leigh, [Sir] Greg Knight, David Davis, Andrew Mitchell, [Sir] Oliver Heald If you're going to do it for one... It's really quite odd that David Davis and Andrew Mitchell have not had knighthoods yet. Whilst I can imagine Barry Sheerman, Harriet Harman, Nick Brown, Jeremy Corbyn, and Diane Abbott all having refused them on the other side, I would be extremely surprised if that were the case with Davis and Mitchell. |
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 6, 2021 8:19:15 GMT
With regard to the actual by-election (when it is held and all in due time and course) this will provide a test of the so called "Let's get the Conservatives out in 2024" arguement that has been heightened on social media thanks to the Conservative leads of late in the polls. Namely, the Greens cannot win this pending by-election and in all reality neither can Labour, therefore should they stand down and allow the Liberal Democrats a clear run (and increase the likelihood of a Con LOSS) or stand and therefore make it an almost certain Con HOLD. If the latter happens, then like Sir Keir, I believe that the next election will be held on May 4th 2023, with the new boundaries in place, voter ID laws in place and the Prime Minister calling the election at his choosing (and that the Conservatives will win their third complete term in office, and extend their governance of the United Kingdom for a potential 28 years since 2010) No, let's not have this electoral pact nonsense at the moment. And even if the Tories did win in 2023 or 2024 it wouldn't be a 15 years term.Harry gets it wrong, yet again. |
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 6, 2021 8:20:32 GMT
Anyway condolence to the good people of this seat whose lives are about to be intruded upon by an army of smug yellow bastards.
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Post by Merseymike on Apr 6, 2021 8:33:20 GMT
With regard to the actual by-election (when it is held and all in due time and course) this will provide a test of the so called "Let's get the Conservatives out in 2024" arguement that has been heightened on social media thanks to the Conservative leads of late in the polls. Namely, the Greens cannot win this pending by-election and in all reality neither can Labour, therefore should they stand down and allow the Liberal Democrats a clear run (and increase the likelihood of a Con LOSS) or stand and therefore make it an almost certain Con HOLD. If the latter happens, then like Sir Keir, I believe that the next election will be held on May 4th 2023, with the new boundaries in place, voter ID laws in place and the Prime Minister calling the election at his choosing (and that the Conservatives will win their third complete term in office, and extend their governance of the United Kingdom for a potential 28 years since 2010) No, let's not have this electoral pact nonsense at the moment. And even if the Tories did win in 2023 or 2024 it wouldn't be a 15 years term. A one off pact for no purpose other than removing the Tories has no credibility anyway. It's negative. |
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Post by grahammurray on Apr 6, 2021 8:42:40 GMT
The obvious big local issue is HS2, which cuts straight through the constituency, tunnelling under Chalfont St Giles, skirting the edge of Amersham Old Town, and emerging from the tunnel in a portal between Great Missenden and South Heath. Cheryl Gillan was an adamant opponent. Construction is well underway at the moment. The Conservative candidate is surely bound to support government policy, aren't they? Even if they don't. |
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ilerda
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Post by ilerda on Apr 6, 2021 9:01:40 GMT
Depriving the voters of a proper choice in a by-election just to reduce the Government’s majority from 88 to 87 seems like a bit of a poor show to me.
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