bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Apr 5, 2021 15:18:42 GMT
She had done very well to have been returned with a five-figure majority at every election, even in 1997, so all credit must be due to her for that, there must be a large personal vote which cannot be taken for granted. I don't think there are many Conservative seats with such a record (even Maidenhead, SW Surrey, etc have been marginal over the years).
Her last contribution was on the 19th January in a HS2 debate where she spoke fervently and passionately against it. Without starting a debate on this, anyone who is against the overpriced project is a good egg in my book and I've no doubt she must have been very respected by her constituents as a result.
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edgbaston
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Post by edgbaston on Apr 5, 2021 15:25:59 GMT
Candy Atherton, Paul Farrelly, and Rupa Huq all stood here before becoming MPs. So maybe the Labour candidate will be one to watch.
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Apr 5, 2021 15:31:43 GMT
Candy Atherton, Paul Farrelly, and Rupa Huq all stood here before becoming MPs. So maybe the Labour candidate will be one to watch. It's an ideal first run for an aspiring London-based Labour hopeful. And of course an absolute plum seat for a Conservative - there will be plenty of interest. One of my oldest friends lives in this seat. To my knowledge he has always voted LibDem. He is very anti HS2 and that will be an issue in the by election. |
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Post by london(ex)tory on Apr 5, 2021 15:50:17 GMT
Sad news. Cheryl Gillan only got 55% of the vote here at the last election which is low for a very true blue area - even if it did vote 55/45 remain There was a 9.26% swing to the at the Liberal Democrats in 2019. Yes and you still came more than 16,000 votes behind so you can put your bar charts away for this one. |
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Post by markgoodair on Apr 5, 2021 15:56:04 GMT
There was a 9.26% swing to the at the Liberal Democrats in 2019. Yes and you still came more than 16,000 votes behind so you can put your bar charts away for this one. A Tory majoirity of over 23,000 was overturned when the Liberal Democrats gained the Christchurch by-election. |
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nodealbrexiteer
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non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Apr 5, 2021 16:01:15 GMT
Yes and you still came more than 16,000 votes behind so you can put your bar charts away for this one. A Tory majoirity of over 23,000 was overturned when the Liberal Democrats gained the Christchurch by-election. For better or worse this isn't 1992-1997 |
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Post by liverpoolliberal on Apr 5, 2021 16:10:39 GMT
A Tory majoirity of over 23,000 was overturned when the Liberal Democrats gained the Christchurch by-election. For better or worse this isn't 1992-1997 A Tory majority of over 23,000 was overturned when the Liberal Democrats gained the Richmond Park by-election |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2021 16:13:49 GMT
As with other home counties seats like Wokingham, Esher & Walton and South Cambridgeshire, if the LibDems couldn't win in 2019 they sure as hell aren't going to do so now
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Post by where2travel on Apr 5, 2021 16:15:02 GMT
Very sad news. I also assumed Cheryl Gillan was a bit older, I knew she had been first elected back in 1992, but hadn't realised she was as young as she was at the time.
This was one of a small number of seats where the Conservatives got over 50% in 1997 (back when Labour were winning what are some of the safest Conservative seats today).
I also just read that this constituency recorded the estimated highest turnout for the EU referendum (excluding Gibraltar).
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Apr 5, 2021 16:19:15 GMT
For better or worse this isn't 1992-1997 A Tory majority of over 23,000 was overturned when the Liberal Democrats gained the Richmond Park by-election If the Tories choose a candidate who follows the party line on HS2 - which of course Cheryl Gillan did not - then it could prove interesting. Under normal circumstances it's one of the most true blue seats in the country |
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Apr 5, 2021 16:20:51 GMT
For better or worse this isn't 1992-1997 A Tory majority of over 23,000 was overturned when the Liberal Democrats gained the Richmond Park by-election - At the height of the Brexit fiasco - The by-election was triggered by Zac Goldsmith standing down and re-contestihg - Goldsmith had pissed some people off by causing an unnecessary by-election... - ...and also via his controversial London mayoralty campaign earlier that year... - ...and also because he was one of the most high-profile Brexiteers in one of the most Remainy seats... - ...and the seat had been Lib Dem just six years before Such favourable circumstances for the Lib Dems are unlikely to arise for this one. |
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edgbaston
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Post by edgbaston on Apr 5, 2021 16:35:22 GMT
Very sad news. I also assumed Cheryl Gillan was a bit older, I knew she had been first elected back in 1992, but hadn't realised she was as young as she was at the time. This was one of a small number of seats where the Conservatives got over 50% in 1997 (back when Labour were winning what are some of the safest Conservative seats today). I also just read that this constituency recorded the estimated highest turnout for the EU referendum (excluding Gibraltar). While this is extremely likely to be a Conservative hold the fact they only got 55% of the vote here in a year when they polled 47% of the vote across England, is significant. If (and it’s a big if) the Brexit realignment continues there are dozens of ‘true blue’ seats that will be competitive in poor Conservative years. So the Lib Dems should absolutely throw everything at this. It might yield them an MP after a few more years of population sorting and generational change. |
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Post by liverpoolliberal on Apr 5, 2021 16:45:11 GMT
A Tory majority of over 23,000 was overturned when the Liberal Democrats gained the Richmond Park by-election - At the height of the Brexit fiasco - The by-election was triggered by Zac Goldsmith standing down and re-contestihg - Goldsmith had pissed some people off by causing an unnecessary by-election... - ...and also via his controversial London mayoralty campaign earlier that year... - ...and also because he was one of the most high-profile Brexiteers in one of the most Remainy seats... - ...and the seat had been Lib Dem just six years before Such favourable circumstances for the Lib Dems are unlikely to arise for this one. Oh I agree, but we shouldn't pretend that it would be totally unprecedented for us to win this one. Early doors of course but I'd expect a very reduced Tory majority at the very least |
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Post by london(ex)tory on Apr 5, 2021 16:54:24 GMT
- At the height of the Brexit fiasco - The by-election was triggered by Zac Goldsmith standing down and re-contestihg - Goldsmith had pissed some people off by causing an unnecessary by-election... - ...and also via his controversial London mayoralty campaign earlier that year... - ...and also because he was one of the most high-profile Brexiteers in one of the most Remainy seats... - ...and the seat had been Lib Dem just six years before Such favourable circumstances for the Lib Dems are unlikely to arise for this one. Oh I agree, but we shouldn't pretend that it would be totally unprecedented for us to win this one. Early doors of course but I'd expect a very reduced Tory majority at the very least I’d expect a reduced majority in numerical terms as a result of lower turnout for a by election, but an increased majority percentage wise because now - more than ever - there is absolutely no point to the Lib Dems. Brexit is over and the party failed to make even a pretence of defending liberty over the last 12 months. |
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Post by andrew111 on Apr 5, 2021 17:02:02 GMT
I would have thought the best comparison would be Witney, a rather similar seat I would have thought. That was a 19% swing from Tory to Lib Dem with the Lib Dems starting in third place. That swing would deliver this seat with a large majority.
I can assure doubters that while bar charts were not a big thing for the Lib Dems in Witney, they certainly will be here. The barchart reassures Tory switchers that Labour will not win just as much as squeezing the Labour vote.
By-elections involving the Lib Dems as a contender are strange things that are fairly divorced from national politics and if the Lib Dems manage to find a strong candidate, then local people may well vote for the candidate that will give the biggest headlines with no danger to the govt.
I would expect this to be called as quickly as possible. Can it still be on May 6th? That is what the Tories will do if they can
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2021 17:06:31 GMT
I wouldn't be at all shocked if the share of the vote fell, though one of the issues in Witney was the feeling that it was an unnecessary election forced by resignation, that at least isn't the case here.
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Post by Andrew_S on Apr 5, 2021 17:13:59 GMT
Sorry to hear this news. She appeared on the second day of the BBC's 1992 election coverage at about 2 hours, 31 mins, 20 secs.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2021 17:19:37 GMT
Sorry to hear this news. She appeared on the second day of the BBC's 1992 election coverage at about 2 hours, 31 mins, 20 secs. Yes, I remember the slightly alarming hair. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 5, 2021 17:31:43 GMT
Whoever the Tory candidate is, and whoever the next MP is, will have big shoes to fill when you consider their two predecessors here.
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Apr 5, 2021 17:37:34 GMT
Whoever the Tory candidate is, and whoever the next MP is, will have big shoes to fill when you consider their two predecessors here. The only good thing I can think of in terms of Ruth Davidson going to the Lords is that it has surely put paid to the perennial suggestions of her standing for a Westminster seat south of the border. |
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