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Post by andrew111 on May 13, 2021 17:37:00 GMT
The Conservative party are likely to win this seat. It's a no hoper for Labour and always has been. Both the LibDems and Greens will use it as something of a springboard to generate some enthusiasm, but I don't see either of them winning. I don't know the position of the Conservative Candidate on HS2, though. He likes cars! Probably agin it |
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Post by No Offence Alan on May 13, 2021 19:05:09 GMT
The Liberal Democrat results in wards within this seat were particularly disappointing: they only won two seats on Buckinghamshire council that are located in this seat, compared to 13 in the town of Aylesbury. Nevertheless they will probably waste a lot of resources and personnel on this by-election like they did in the 2019 general election on narrowly Remain-voting Conservative seats that in fact had no realistic chance of changing hands (e.g. Esher & Walton). By this logic the Green Party should only ever campaign in Brighton, given that your closest non-held target seat from 2019 in terms of swing requires you to overturn a majority of over 28,000 votes. This an especially superb comment as the example seat you use is one of the few seats where it is now entirely possible that we could win it within the next couple of election cycles, given how we are only 3,000 votes behind the Tories, based off a large swing due to throwing a lot resources and personnel on it. Sorry to be an Eeyore, but I didn't see much yellow in the Esher area on the Surrey County Council map last week. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 13, 2021 19:10:42 GMT
why Carlton quoted a post of mine from over a month ago (and which was about FPTP, not the by-election) itself , is beyond me. However I dont want to turn this thread into a debate about voting systems, Suffice to say it's obvious why the Tories wouldnt want to change a system that massively overdelivers for them (turkeys dont vote for Xmas) and Labour dont seem to want to change it as they have a fantasy that they will appeal to the electorate, in significant numbers AND in the right places, more often than once every generation at best. So i agree that nothing will change so let's leave it at that Have you asked the admin to colour you orange yet? |
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Post by manchesterman on May 13, 2021 19:34:57 GMT
why Carlton quoted a post of mine from over a month ago (and which was about FPTP, not the by-election) itself , is beyond me. However I dont want to turn this thread into a debate about voting systems, Suffice to say it's obvious why the Tories wouldnt want to change a system that massively overdelivers for them (turkeys dont vote for Xmas) and Labour dont seem to want to change it as they have a fantasy that they will appeal to the electorate, in significant numbers AND in the right places, more often than once every generation at best. So i agree that nothing will change so let's leave it at that Have you asked the admin to colour you orange yet? No because I am not wedded to any political party and have voted for a rainbow of parties in the past, so why would I do that? |
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Post by andrew111 on May 13, 2021 20:30:46 GMT
why Carlton quoted a post of mine from over a month ago (and which was about FPTP, not the by-election) itself , is beyond me. However I dont want to turn this thread into a debate about voting systems, Suffice to say it's obvious why the Tories wouldnt want to change a system that massively overdelivers for them (turkeys dont vote for Xmas) and Labour dont seem to want to change it as they have a fantasy that they will appeal to the electorate, in significant numbers AND in the right places, more often than once every generation at best. So i agree that nothing will change so let's leave it at that Have you asked the admin to colour you orange yet? People don't have to be in the Lib Dems to believe in PR you know! I have heard even some Labour politicians believe in it |
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473 
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Post by peterl on May 13, 2021 20:32:43 GMT
Have you asked the admin to colour you orange yet? People don't have to be in the Lib Dems to believe in PR you know! I have heard even some Labour politicians believe in it Though if its one of your top political priorities, there is a decent chance you are a Lib Dem!  |
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Post by andrew111 on May 13, 2021 20:41:50 GMT
People don't have to be in the Lib Dems to believe in PR you know! I have heard even some Labour politicians believe in it Though if its one of your top political priorities, there is a decent chance you are a Lib Dem! It helps to have good judgement, true.. 😉 |
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Post by greenhert on May 13, 2021 21:59:37 GMT
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Post by andrew111 on May 13, 2021 23:02:17 GMT
Bit of a mystery what her platform is.. |
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,787
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Post by J.G.Harston on May 13, 2021 23:24:13 GMT
Have you asked the admin to colour you orange yet? People don't have to be in the Lib Dems to believe in PR you know! I have heard even some Labour politicians believe in it Even.... Great Aunt Martha, sit down.... Conservative Action for Electoral Reform |
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473
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Post by peterl on May 13, 2021 23:24:28 GMT
"a Green Party county councillor in West Berkshire"
Berkshire has not had county councillors for 25 years!
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 13, 2021 23:29:11 GMT
Have you asked the admin to colour you orange yet? People don't have to be in the Lib Dems to believe in PR you know! I have heard even some Labour politicians believe in it I was more on about the fact that their only their political beliefs are "Tories bad, Labour worse" |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 13, 2021 23:31:18 GMT
This is going to degenerate into "who can oppose HS2 the hardest" isn't it? |
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473
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Post by peterl on May 13, 2021 23:39:24 GMT
While I'm not going to get back into a debate we have had on this forum numerous times, it is very easy to oppose a scheme the benefits of which coud be written on the back of a train ticket.
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,787
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Post by J.G.Harston on May 13, 2021 23:47:12 GMT
This is going to degenerate into "who can oppose HS2 the hardest" isn't it? When we had our first local party remote meeting a year or so ago the evening's news was something about something to do with HS2 being cancelled. When a member mentioned this half of us cheered and half of us booed. The cheerers had a sudden wait-what? moment.  |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,908
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Post by Tony Otim on May 16, 2021 18:04:00 GMT
Bit of a mystery what her platform is.. Although it's probably not one of the ones at Curzon St... |
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
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Post by Harry Hayfield on May 17, 2021 8:28:57 GMT
The Breakthrough Party (no, I have never heard of them either) has announced this morning on Twitter they will stand a candidate in Chesham and Amersham, reaffirming my opinion there will be no pact and it will be a Con HOLD.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 17, 2021 8:48:18 GMT
The Breakthrough Party (no, I have never heard of them either) has announced this morning on Twitter they will stand a candidate in Chesham and Amersham, reaffirming my opinion there will be no pact and it will be a Con HOLD. Were you expecting this party which you'd never heard of to have endorsed the Lib Dems thus gifting them the thousands of far-left votes in this constituency and propelling them to victory? |
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Post by carlton43 on May 17, 2021 9:35:51 GMT
The Breakthrough Party (no, I have never heard of them either) has announced this morning on Twitter they will stand a candidate in Chesham and Amersham, reaffirming my opinion there will be no pact and it will be a Con HOLD. Oh dear!! That is most worrying. I was quite convinced that this would be an easy CON hold. Now, with your endorsement I have real cause for concern! |
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Post by andrew111 on May 17, 2021 9:44:09 GMT
With a democratic voting system, all Parties need to so is get more than 50% of the votes and they have a majority. The SNP have managed it in Scotland, so why not Labour or the Tories in the UK (or Great Britain, since they don't stand in NI but just have their proxies)? As it is, more people dislike the Tories than like them, and you should just get over it and stop pretending you have a "mandate" But 'My Dear', I don't care what you think or what you want or your daft precepts of intrinsic fairness. I never use the term mandate if I can avoid it because I don't feel it means much or has any potency either. And in most elections outside Merseyside, most MPs have more people who voted elsewhere than for them. It is only under ridiculous terminally bent rules that you can try to prove that your eventual AV 'winner' really did 'win' and really is 'popular'; but only after people are forced to give their second and third preference!!! For many like me, even the first vote is fairly negative in being for some twerp who just happensd to be less of a twerp that my second choice, and to be in a party I dislike less than all the other parties. And you have the counfounding cheek to suggest that such a system produce the 'fair' and the 'popular' choice?!! In fact it will produce the most bland and least offensive and most useless and colourless twerp by reductive elimination. In fact the person that at the outset most us did not want. And thus a government of useless nonentities merely because they were too bland to be eliminated! A recipe for the LDs to win which is the sole recommendation for it. Good morning "Bro" Don't know why you are going on about AV. I was discussing the lack of mandate of the government, not an individual. Your second paragraph is just a ridiculous evidence-free tirade. |
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