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Post by andrew111 on May 10, 2021 22:10:57 GMT
For comparison Witney (where we had a by-election in 2016) is estimated to have been 54% Remain vs 55% here. Very different constituencies and very different national circumstances True. The Lib Dems started from third place in Witney, otherwise they would probably have won |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 10, 2021 22:15:06 GMT
Very different constituencies and very different national circumstances True. The Lib Dems started from third place in Witney, otherwise they would probably have won Not sure. The Labour vote in Witney is difficult to squeeze, partly because of the demographics (much of it comes from the social housing and deprivation that exists in Witney town and Chippy) not being favourable to the LibDems, and partly because lots of Labour voters in Witney are surrounded by Tories and other Labour voters which makes the "tactical" argument harder to use. Starting from third might have disadvantaged you but I think it's a stretch to say it cost you the seat |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 10, 2021 22:20:51 GMT
There are quite a few RAF houses in Carterton. My daughter used to live in one. Labour would do quite well in these, I think. Surprisingly not, Carterton and Brize Norton are probably the strongest Conservative areas in the seat I don't find that surprising at all. |
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Post by andrew111 on May 10, 2021 22:23:28 GMT
True. The Lib Dems started from third place in Witney, otherwise they would probably have won Not sure. The Labour vote in Witney is difficult to squeeze, partly because of the demographics (much of it comes from the social housing and deprivation that exists in Witney town and Chippy) not being favourable to the LibDems, and partly because lots of Labour voters in Witney are surrounded by Tories and other Labour voters which makes the "tactical" argument harder to lose. Starting from third might have disadvantaged you but I think it's a stretch to say it cost you the seat Winning by-elections is not primarily about squeezing the third party but about getting switches from the first. For the Lib Dems to get Tory switchers they have to reassure them that there is no chance of Labour winning. Then, because it will not affect the government, just take them down a peg, they may switch. In General elections people act less rationally regarding the local situation, but also see their vote as more important. By elections can turn into a horse race where people want to back the winner. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 11, 2021 6:07:00 GMT
Funny how if the Tories win here, their majority will almost certainly be smaller than in Hartlepool!
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on May 11, 2021 12:49:43 GMT
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Post by andrew111 on May 11, 2021 13:41:25 GMT
Bit different from my figures up thread. Wonder how they calculated them? |
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on May 11, 2021 21:30:48 GMT
Is there no poll on this?
If there is Labour and Green options may be interesting.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,967
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Post by The Bishop on May 12, 2021 12:01:19 GMT
Is there no poll on this? If there is Labour and Green options may be interesting. I don't foresee many votes for either tbh - either in any poll we run or the real thing  |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,748
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Post by Chris from Brum on May 12, 2021 12:06:04 GMT
Is there no poll on this? If there is Labour and Green options may be interesting. I don't foresee many votes for either tbh - either in any poll we run or the real thing Oh, I could see the Greens going in full tilt on the anti-HS2 angle, but that's futile, it's a done deal and the diggers are already rolling. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 12, 2021 14:08:50 GMT
The writ was moved today, which I think means polling day will be 17 June.
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Post by yellowperil on May 12, 2021 14:27:41 GMT
The writ was moved today, which I think means polling day will be 17 June. significant day to choose? |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,748
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Post by Chris from Brum on May 12, 2021 14:40:37 GMT
The writ was moved today, which I think means polling day will be 17 June. significant day to choose? |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 12, 2021 15:35:43 GMT
A Tory loss would be quite the birthday present for Boris. AdminSTB , would you kindly add a poll? |
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
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Post by peterl on May 12, 2021 15:40:37 GMT
I don't foresee many votes for either tbh - either in any poll we run or the real thing Oh, I could see the Greens going in full tilt on the anti-HS2 angle, but that's futile, it's a done deal and the diggers are already rolling. Yet that doesn't mean there wouldn't be votes in it. |
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Post by bjornhattan on May 12, 2021 15:44:01 GMT
A Tory loss would be quite the birthday present for Boris. AdminSTB , would you kindly add a poll? I've just added the poll.
To weigh in on the earlier discussion, I've included options for a Labour or Green gain, because while both are unlikely, nothing's impossible. We had an option to vote for the Northern Independence Party winning Hartlepool after all - a much longer shot than a Labour or Green gain here.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 12, 2021 15:48:21 GMT
Of course some things are impossible (or so unlikely as to be worth treating in that way). Just because some clown party who had no chance of winning was included in the poll for Hartlepool that is no reason to compound the idiocy by including options for two parties who have no chance here. The actual result of that by-election shows how stupid it was to have included that option and presumably it would have lowered the value of that poll had anyone been stupid enough to select that option (as someone has already been stupid enough to select the Greens here)
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 12, 2021 15:51:20 GMT
Of course some things are impossible (or so unlikely as to be worth treating in that way). Just because some clown party who had no chance of winning was included in the poll for Hartlepool that is no reason to compound the idiocy by including options for two parties who have no chance here. The actual result of that by-election shows how stupid it was to have included that option and presumably it would have lowered the value of that poll had anyone been stupid enough to select that option (as someone has already been stupid enough to select the Greens here) Duverger's law strikes again! |
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Post by carlton43 on May 13, 2021 13:39:23 GMT
Liked to agree with the first 2 paragraphs, not so much for the last one. Without deposits the number of frivolous candidates grows, which creates almost unusable ballot papers.
No ballot paper is unusable, longer ones are just ones you don't happen to like.
Please define what you mean by frivolous candidates.
Most of them in all elections. Most are doing it for either narcissistic or naive reasons, or at request of a party as a paper candidate. Very few of the totality are potentially useful fully 'qualified' persons in with a shout and likely to be good at it. |
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
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Post by Harry Hayfield on May 13, 2021 13:47:15 GMT
Chesham and Amersham by-election writ moved for June 17th 2021
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