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Post by andrew111 on May 10, 2021 17:08:52 GMT
I have totted up the local elections. A bit tricky since the ordnance survey have not caught up with the unitary ward/division boundaries. However there is a handy map here: buckscc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=fccb21fc1a6f43e4b5d1b4fb299d16a0It was an election with 3 elected per ward, so I have used the top vote method , including the top vote of various independents, WEQ etc Tory 43% Lib Dem 24% Green 17% Lab 10% other 6% Lib dems have one councillor, in Chiltern Ridges, one Mohammed Fayyaz, who came second. They came 4th behind the three Tories in 5 wards. Greens came 4th in 2 wards. Lab came 4th with an Asian candidate in Chesham (And I see Ed Davey visited a mosque there in March...) Ward results are here buckinghamshire.moderngov.co.uk/mgElectionResults.aspx?ID=1&V=1Wards used: Amersham and Chesham Bois; Chalfont St Giles; Chalfont St Peters; Chesham; Chess Valley; Chiltern Ridges; Great Missenden; Little Chalfont and Amersham Common; Penn Wood and Old Amersham, if anyone wants to use a different calculation I wonder what the bar chart will look like. like the GE result, I would imagine. Two horse race. Nice big arrow saying up 13%. Hope for a poll later on.. |
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Post by Deleted on May 10, 2021 17:12:33 GMT
43% for the Tories is a 12 point drop from the General Election...
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Post by andrew111 on May 10, 2021 17:20:21 GMT
43% for the Tories is a 12 point drop from the General Election... not very significant... But obviously the Lib Dems have been quietly campaigning, and probably also the Greens |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 10, 2021 18:11:14 GMT
It's quite misleading because in a lot of these three member wards you only had sometimes 1 or 2 Labour candidates, 1 or 2 Greens etc (Lib Dems had a full slate everywhere I think) so a lot of these votes for those parties will effectively be counting the same voter twice
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Post by andrew111 on May 10, 2021 18:47:38 GMT
It's quite misleading because in a lot of these three member wards you only had sometimes 1 or 2 Labour candidates, 1 or 2 Greens etc (Lib Dems had a full slate everywhere I think) so a lot of these votes for those parties will effectively be counting the same voter twice There is no precise way to convert this type of election into FPTP. As I recall this question has been visited many times here. If anyone wants to try a different calculation I listed the wards! I think it puts the Parties in the correct order though |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 10, 2021 18:50:20 GMT
It's quite misleading because in a lot of these three member wards you only had sometimes 1 or 2 Labour candidates, 1 or 2 Greens etc (Lib Dems had a full slate everywhere I think) so a lot of these votes for those parties will effectively be counting the same voter twice There is no precise way to convert this type of election into FPTP. As I recall this question has been visited many times here. If anyone wants to try a different calculation I listed the wards! I think it puts the Parties in the correct order though No there isn't a better way of doing it. I was more engaging in a rebuke to @conservativeestimate with his suggestion that this represents a 12% decline since the general election. That is the calculation that is not meaningful. Your figures are fine but have to be considered in the context I described. |
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k9
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Post by k9 on May 10, 2021 19:35:25 GMT
I have totted up the local elections. A bit tricky since the ordnance survey have not caught up with the unitary ward/division boundaries. However there is a handy map here: buckscc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=fccb21fc1a6f43e4b5d1b4fb299d16a0It was an election with 3 elected per ward, so I have used the top vote method , including the top vote of various independents, WEQ etc Tory 43% Lib Dem 24% Green 17% Lab 10% other 6% Lib dems have one councillor, in Chiltern Ridges, one Mohammed Fayyaz, who came second. They came 4th behind the three Tories in 5 wards. Greens came 4th in 2 wards. Lab came 4th with an Asian candidate in Chesham (And I see Ed Davey visited a mosque there in March...) Ward results are here buckinghamshire.moderngov.co.uk/mgElectionResults.aspx?ID=1&V=1Wards used: Amersham and Chesham Bois; Chalfont St Giles; Chalfont St Peters; Chesham; Chess Valley; Chiltern Ridges; Great Missenden; Little Chalfont and Amersham Common; Penn Wood and Old Amersham, if anyone wants to use a different calculation In Amersham the Lib Dems took control of the Town Council 8 LD to 7 Conservative. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 10, 2021 19:56:31 GMT
I have totted up the local elections. A bit tricky since the ordnance survey have not caught up with the unitary ward/division boundaries. However there is a handy map here: buckscc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=fccb21fc1a6f43e4b5d1b4fb299d16a0It was an election with 3 elected per ward, so I have used the top vote method , including the top vote of various independents, WEQ etc Tory 43% Lib Dem 24% Green 17% Lab 10% other 6% Lib dems have one councillor, in Chiltern Ridges, one Mohammed Fayyaz, who came second. They came 4th behind the three Tories in 5 wards. Greens came 4th in 2 wards. Lab came 4th with an Asian candidate in Chesham (And I see Ed Davey visited a mosque there in March...) Ward results are here buckinghamshire.moderngov.co.uk/mgElectionResults.aspx?ID=1&V=1Wards used: Amersham and Chesham Bois; Chalfont St Giles; Chalfont St Peters; Chesham; Chess Valley; Chiltern Ridges; Great Missenden; Little Chalfont and Amersham Common; Penn Wood and Old Amersham, if anyone wants to use a different calculation In Amersham the Lib Dems took control of the Town Council 8 LD to 7 Conservative. Much as I'd like to use that for ramping, I think Town Council elections tell you bugger all really. |
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Post by Deleted on May 10, 2021 19:57:43 GMT
There is no precise way to convert this type of election into FPTP. As I recall this question has been visited many times here. If anyone wants to try a different calculation I listed the wards! I think it puts the Parties in the correct order though No there isn't a better way of doing it. I was more engaging in a rebuke to @conservativeestimate with his suggestion that this represents a 12% decline since the general election. That is the calculation that is not meaningful. Your figures are fine but have to be considered in the context I described. Ah I see. The figures were based on highest vote method but parties fielded incomplete slates? My mistake |
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Post by Deleted on May 10, 2021 19:59:48 GMT
For comparison Witney (where we had a by-election in 2016) is estimated to have been 54% Remain vs 55% here.
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on May 10, 2021 20:02:34 GMT
In Amersham the Lib Dems took control of the Town Council 8 LD to 7 Conservative. Much as I'd like to use that for ramping, I think Town Council elections tell you bugger all really. They do, but it's a morale-booster if nothing else. |
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Post by Deleted on May 10, 2021 20:04:21 GMT
For comparison Witney (where we had a by-election in 2016) is estimated to have been 54% Remain vs 55% here. Very different constituencies and very different national circumstances |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 10, 2021 20:07:27 GMT
I have totted up the local elections. A bit tricky since the ordnance survey have not caught up with the unitary ward/division boundaries. However there is a handy map here: buckscc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=fccb21fc1a6f43e4b5d1b4fb299d16a0It was an election with 3 elected per ward, so I have used the top vote method , including the top vote of various independents, WEQ etc Tory 43% Lib Dem 24% Green 17% Lab 10% other 6% Lib dems have one councillor, in Chiltern Ridges, one Mohammed Fayyaz, who came second. They came 4th behind the three Tories in 5 wards. Greens came 4th in 2 wards. Lab came 4th with an Asian candidate in Chesham (And I see Ed Davey visited a mosque there in March...) Ward results are here buckinghamshire.moderngov.co.uk/mgElectionResults.aspx?ID=1&V=1Wards used: Amersham and Chesham Bois; Chalfont St Giles; Chalfont St Peters; Chesham; Chess Valley; Chiltern Ridges; Great Missenden; Little Chalfont and Amersham Common; Penn Wood and Old Amersham, if anyone wants to use a different calculation In Amersham the Lib Dems took control of the Town Council 8 LD to 7 Conservative. What was the composition of the council previously? The results are hard to find since Chiltern no longer exists and the new Buckinghamshire council site is unlikely to bother adding historical parish election results, but I think the Lib Dems having a majority on Amersham town council is not especially novel (they often had a majority on Chesham town council as well) |
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Post by melthamhd94nn on May 10, 2021 20:16:47 GMT
Apparently the Lib Dems had no councillors in Amersham Town Council before this election.
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on May 10, 2021 20:18:09 GMT
For comparison Witney (where we had a by-election in 2016) is estimated to have been 54% Remain vs 55% here. and very different national circumstances Really? Forgive me as I don't know the south east particularly well but I am intrigued as to how different, all I can think of is a lack of a university nearby to this one, whereas I can imagine many staff of both Oxford unis may live in Witney. Also because I heard that the Tories lost several seats in Witney town itself (I assume there were no elections for Buckinghamshire council this year) |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 10, 2021 20:22:53 GMT
Apparently the Lib Dems had no councillors in Amersham Town Council before this election. I wonder when it was last elected. 2015 possibly as that was when the last district elections were and they generally coincide, so not auspicious circumstances in that case. I'm sure they have had plenty of town councillors there previously |
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Post by Deleted on May 10, 2021 20:31:45 GMT
Very different constituencies and very different national circumstances Really? Forgive me as I don't know the south east particularly well but I am intrigued as to how different, all I can think of is a lack of a university nearby to this one, whereas I can imagine many staff of both Oxford unis may live in Witney. Also because I heard that the Tories lost several seats in Witney town itself (I assume there were no elections for Buckinghamshire council this year) As well as the university difference, more of Witney's population lives in rural areas and it's more agricultural and less commuter-dominated. In addition, tge Labour vote in Witney seems to be much more stubborn than in either Chesham or Amersham |
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Post by Merseymike on May 10, 2021 20:31:53 GMT
Very different constituencies and very different national circumstances Really? Forgive me as I don't know the south east particularly well but I am intrigued as to how different, all I can think of is a lack of a university nearby to this one, whereas I can imagine many staff of both Oxford unis may live in Witney. Also because I heard that the Tories lost several seats in Witney town itself (I assume there were no elections for Buckinghamshire council this year) Witney town itself is quite Labour, as is Chipping Norton Labour have only ever won Chesham and currently they are a fair way behind even there. Most of this seat is seriously posh. |
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Post by La Fontaine on May 10, 2021 21:18:01 GMT
There are quite a few RAF houses in Carterton. My daughter used to live in one. Labour would do quite well in these, I think.
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Post by Deleted on May 10, 2021 21:32:34 GMT
There are quite a few RAF houses in Carterton. My daughter used to live in one. Labour would do quite well in these, I think. Surprisingly not, Carterton and Brize Norton are probably the strongest Conservative areas in the seat |
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