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Post by andrew111 on Apr 21, 2021 0:22:26 GMT
3 member constiuencies are poor for proportional representation, really need 5 member constituencies to be the minimum size.
A House of Commons elected by STV with a mixture of 3-member and 2-member constituencies would be perfectly adequate for the purpose of spreading more evenly the geographical spread of representation of the two main parties, and thus eliminating so-called "electoral deserts". The objective of achieving proportionality is a much lesser and substantially irrelevant criterion, as far as I am concerned. 3 member seats are not very good for proportionality but more important they remove the voter choice within a Party which is the main reason for having STV rather than the various list systems. In the 3 member Scottish local seats Parties rarely put up more than one candidate. 2 member seats even worse. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 21, 2021 7:18:38 GMT
Three pages solid of discussion about PR (sure I guess it hasn't been covered enough on this site) with just one solitary post by The Bishop which is actually relevant to the by-election occurring here. For those interested in Chesham & Amersham rather than voting systems, there's a good profile of the seat here vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/14592/chesham-amersham |
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Post by gibbon on Apr 23, 2021 15:53:21 GMT
At the General Election the Conservative share of the vote was down and the Liberal Democrat vote went up. In view of the sleaze and cronyism allegations that have been made (and no doubt more to come) is this the sort of seat where there may be a strong protest vote which might lead to a shock upset?
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,732
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Post by Chris from Brum on Apr 23, 2021 16:00:14 GMT
At the General Election the Conservative share of the vote was down and the Liberal Democrat vote went up. In view of the sleaze and cronyism allegations that have been made (and no doubt more to come) is this the sort of seat where there may be a strong protest vote which might lead to a shock upset? I'm sure we'll try to mount a strong campaign, but we were still some way behind, so it will be a long shot. Never say never, of course ... |
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Post by southernliberal on Apr 23, 2021 17:34:34 GMT
Any idea on the runners and riders for the Conservative and Liberal Democrat nominations? I saw former MP Philip Lee had been shortlisted by the Lib Dems, any idea who else might be in the mix?
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Post by gibbon on Apr 28, 2021 16:04:34 GMT
In 1959 the Conservatives had a large majority in Orpington. At the by-election in 1962 the Liberals went from third to first with a large majority and held the seat until 1970. In view of the Electoral Commission's investigation about the refurbishment of Boris's flat and his alleged remarks about bodies do not be surprised if a similar result occurred here.
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mark1968
Lib Dem
Liberal Democrat
Posts: 59 
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Post by mark1968 on Apr 28, 2021 19:49:00 GMT
I hope so, what people forget about Orpington is that the Liberal had a sizeable council base by 1962, they had 12 district councillors and a couple of county councillors. I think that the scandals going on now will, like in 1962 have an effect. One advantage the Lib Dems have here is starting in second place, even if it is some way back.
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Post by greenhert on Apr 28, 2021 20:25:18 GMT
Surprising that no date has been set yet for this by-election. Perhaps they will wait to move the writ until after this year's local elections have concluded. |
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Post by grahammurray on Apr 28, 2021 20:28:59 GMT
Surprising that no date has been set yet for this by-election. Perhaps they will wait to move the writ until after this year's local elections have concluded. The funeral didnt take place until yesterday. |
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Post by andrew111 on Apr 28, 2021 20:43:47 GMT
I hope so, what people forget about Orpington is that the Liberal had a sizeable council base by 1962, they had 12 district councillors and a couple of county councillors. I think that the scandals going on now will, like in 1962 have an effect. One advantage the Lib Dems have here is starting in second place, even if it is some way back. I am wondering what is the smallest swing the Lib Dems have ever achieved starting from second place in a Tory seat? |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,436
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Post by iain on Apr 28, 2021 20:56:28 GMT
I hope so, what people forget about Orpington is that the Liberal had a sizeable council base by 1962, they had 12 district councillors and a couple of county councillors. I think that the scandals going on now will, like in 1962 have an effect. One advantage the Lib Dems have here is starting in second place, even if it is some way back. I am wondering what is the smallest swing the Lib Dems have ever achieved starting from second place in a Tory seat? Henley in 2008 swung to the Conservatives. |
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Post by andrew111 on Apr 28, 2021 21:02:28 GMT
I am wondering what is the smallest swing the Lib Dems have ever achieved starting from second place in a Tory seat? Henley in 2008 swung to the Conservatives. Let's add "and under a Tory govt" |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Apr 28, 2021 21:16:06 GMT
Perhaps they will wait to move the writ until after this year's local elections have concluded. The funeral didnt take place until yesterday. Waiting until after the funeral used to be considered proper behaviour (though someone will no doubt be able to give examples where it wasn't done). There were raised eyebrows when the C&N by-election was called before Gwyneth Dunwoody's funeral. |
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on Apr 28, 2021 23:26:49 GMT
I always find it interesting that people chunter about Orpington being the start of the Liberal revival or whatever. Surely it's Torrington.
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Post by carlton43 on Apr 28, 2021 23:37:17 GMT
I always find it interesting that people chunter about Orpington being the start of the Liberal revival or whatever. Surely it's Torrington. I remember both. Torrington was thought to be 'one of those bucolic places far away where that sort of nonsense may happen from time to time'. Orpington was far more serious being a heartland seat near London on a massive swing and a possible start of a domino effect. Lubbock was perfect for that moment and for the seat. Goldman was a Jewish Central Office back room boy with no charisma 'awarded' a safe seat who did not want or warm to him. It was a disaster but an obvious one from the start and no surprise to insiders except as to the size of the damage. |
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Post by nobodyimportant on Apr 29, 2021 7:55:24 GMT
Henley in 2008 swung to the Conservatives. Let's add "and under a Tory govt" Since the merger of the Liberals and the SDP, either Kincardine and Deeside (11.4% Con to LD) or Richmond (9.6% Con to SLD, with both parties dropping in vote share and the continuity SDP taking second), depending on whether or not you count the second one. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 29, 2021 8:06:37 GMT
I always find it interesting that people chunter about Orpington being the start of the Liberal revival or whatever. Surely it's Torrington. The first good Liberal byelection performance of the revival was Inverness in December '54. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,931
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 29, 2021 10:19:10 GMT
In which the Liberal candidate made Scottish home rule a major part of their platform.
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Post by heslingtonian on Apr 29, 2021 11:28:48 GMT
I always find it interesting that people chunter about Orpington being the start of the Liberal revival or whatever. Surely it's Torrington. I remember both. Torrington was thought to be 'one of those bucolic places far away where that sort of nonsense may happen from time to time'. Orpington was far more serious being a heartland seat near London on a massive swing and a possible start of a domino effect. Lubbock was perfect for that moment and for the seat. Gold was a Jewish Central Office back room boy with no charisma 'awarded' a safe seat who did not want or warm to him. It was a disaster but an obvious one from the start and no surprise to insiders except as to the size of the damage. Sorry to be pedantic but the Conservative candidate was Peter Goldman not Gold. Does anyone know what happened to him after the Orpington by-election as he obviously never became an MP and it appears never stood for elected office again. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 29, 2021 12:30:37 GMT
I remember both. Torrington was thought to be 'one of those bucolic places far away where that sort of nonsense may happen from time to time'. Orpington was far more serious being a heartland seat near London on a massive swing and a possible start of a domino effect. Lubbock was perfect for that moment and for the seat. Gold was a Jewish Central Office back room boy with no charisma 'awarded' a safe seat who did not want or warm to him. It was a disaster but an obvious one from the start and no surprise to insiders except as to the size of the damage. Sorry to be pedantic but the Conservative candidate was Peter Goldman not Gold. Does anyone know what happened to him after the Orpington by-election as he obviously never became an MP and it appears never stood for elected office again. Peter Goldman was a protegé of Iain McLeod. He left Conservative Central Office after the 1964 election to be director of the Consumer's Association and in 1970 was elected President of the International Organization of Consumers Unions. He was a member of the Annan Committee looking at the future of broadcasting in 1974-77, and a member of the Royal Commission on Legal Services from 1976. He left the Consumer's Association in 1987 on being appointed Director of the International Organization of Consumers Unions, but fell ill soon after and died on 29 September 1987 at the age of 62. |
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