Chesham & Amersham

[Pete Whitehead]

This constituency was created in 1974 from parts of the Aylesbury and South Buckinghamshire constituencies and since 1997 it has shared the same boundaries as the (now defunct) Chiltern district. It has had just two MPs in that time – the notable ‘wet’ Sir Ian Gilmour from 1974 to 1992 and since then Dame Cheryl Gillan.

This seat can be divided into four roughly equal parts.
The largest town here is Chesham towards the North of the constituency. Chesham is in fact an old industrial town which has developed into a commuter base due to its location at the end of the Metropolitan line. Nevertheless, there remain several distinctly downmarket areas of the town with sizeable council estates throughout and dingy terraced streets to the North of the town centre. There is also a substantial Pakistani population here. In parts of Chesham one could easily imagine being in the Pennines rather than the Chilterns.
In the initial elections to Chiltern council in 1973 a majority of councillors elected from Chesham were Labour and though they have declined subsequently they retained some strength in a number of wards while this town will still provide a large proportion of the Labour vote in general elections. The Lib Dems though have more recently provided the main challenge to the Conservatives here at all levels.

Directly South of Chesham and also on the Met line is Amersham. Together with its satellites of Chesham Bois and Little Chalfont it is of a similar size to Chesham. There is a sizeable council estate in Little Chalfont but on the whole, this is a much more upmarket area than Chesham, Chesham Bois being notably affluent. It does however share a tendency to some Lib Dem strength at the local level in Amersham itself, though the Labour vote has been derisory for a long time now.

Further south still we have the Chalfonts – Chalfont St Peter is the main town here while we also have Chalfont St Giles and Chalfont Common. There is a very little social variety here – it is almost universally affluent and, in some areas, extremely wealthy. The area around Austenwood common in the far south blends into Gerrards Cross (Beaconsfield constituency). All of this territory is also extremely Conservative with that party winning all the council seats here comfortably in the most recent local elections.

The fourth and final element of the constituency is the rural element. This is not primarily an agricultural region (thought here are farms of course) but a series of affluent and commuterised villages in the Chiltern hills. The most notable of these villages is Great Missenden which has direct rail links to London but there are numerous others – Chartridge, Holmer Green, Ley Hill and so on. Penn in the South West mostly comprises the extremely wealthy area of Knotty Green which is really an extension of Beaconsfield. Notwithstanding the odd Independent and Lib Dem local election victory, all this territory is also very Conservative and with derisory Labour support.

This does all add up to an extremely well off and safe Conservative seat, notwithstanding the not inconsiderable grottiness in Chesham – the remainder of the seat is set amongst some of the most desirable residential terrain in the country. The Lib Dems have long been the main challengers at the local level, with particular strength in the two eponymous towns, and have usually been in second place in parliamentary elections – the only exceptions being in 2017 when Labour came second and 2015 when UKIP did (and the Lib Dems came fourth).
In 2019 the Lib Dems more than doubled their vote as the Conservatives dropped a fair bit in common with many affluent Remain voting Home counties seats. Nevertheless, the Conservatives still won by more than two to one then. The Conservative majority has never been below 10,000 here and this remains one of their safest seats in the country.

1. Ridgeway	7.   Chesham Bois & Weedon Hill	13. Chalfont St Giles	19. Penn & Coleshill
2. Vale	8.   Amersham-on-the-Hill	14. Chalfont Common	20. Holmer Green
3. Newtown	9.   Amersham Common	15. Chalfont St Peter Central	21. Prestwood & Heath End
4. Hilltop & Townsend	10. Amersham Town	16. Austenwood	22. Little Missenden
5. Asheridge Vale & Lowndes	11. Little Chalfont	17. Gold Hill	23. Great Missenden
6. St Mary's & Waterside	12. Ashley Green, Latimer & Chenies	18. Seer Green	24. Ballinger, South Heath & Chartridge
			25. Cholesbury, The Lee & Bellingdon

2019 General election

Con	30,850	55.4%
LD	14,627	26.3%
Lab	7,166	12.9%
Grn	3,042	5.5%
Majority	16,223	29.1%

2017 General election

Con	33,514	60.7%
Lab	11,374	20.6%
LD	7,179	13.0%
Grn	1,660	3.0%
UKIP	1,525	2.8%
Majority	22,140	40.1%

2015 General election

Con	31,138	59.1%
UKIP	7,218	13.7%
Lab	6,712	12.7%
LD	4,761	9.0%
Grn	2,902	5.5%
Majority	23,920	45.4%

2016 EU referendum

Remain		55.0%
Leave		45.0%

2011 Census

	%	Rank		%	Rank		%	Rank		%	Rank
Owner Occupied	76.9	37	White	91.5	340	Christian	63.2	238	Graduates	41.0	38
Social Rented	12.4	411	Asian	5.4	201	Muslim	2.5	207	No Qualifications	19.1	533
Private Rented	9.0	553	Black	0.6	329	Hindu	1.3	142
			Mixed	2.2	181	Sikh	0.5	137	Students	6.4	336
			Other	0.3	304	Jewish	0.2	61
						None	23.6	373	Prof/Man	49.9
									Routine/	15.7
									Semi Routine

[BossMan]

This was the seat in the mid 1990s where a fanatical Tory supporter who would only live where there was Tory representation at every level would probably have ended up living.

[Pete Whitehead]

Jun 6, 2020 9:39:23 GMT @barnabymarder said:

I used to go to Knotty Green quite often as a child, as there were family friends there. I certainly remember it as an extension of Beaconsfield and had no idea it wasn't in the Beaconsfield constituency, it's come as a surprise. Maybe it was once in Beaconsfield - I seem to remember them talking about Ronald Bell as their MP (not in complimentary terms), though that could have been before 1974 when South Bucks existed as a seat.

Yes it would have been in the old South Bucks but always in this seat since 1974 - one of those situations where a town has spilled outside its boundaries and they've never been changed

[The Bishop]

Jun 6, 2020 7:38:05 GMT BossMan said:

This was the seat in the mid 1990s where a fanatical Tory supporter who would only live where there was Tory representation at every level would probably have ended up living.

The neighbouring Beaconsfield might have been an even "better" candidate in that respect?

[sirbenjamin]

Jun 6, 2020 7:38:05 GMT BossMan said:

This was the seat in the mid 1990s where a fanatical Tory supporter who would only live where there was Tory representation at every level would probably have ended up living.

I did have a Great Aunt living in this seat, but she was dead before then and I didn't inherit her house.

[Pete Whitehead]

Obviously the profile at the top of the thread will need updating to take account of the Lib Dem by-election gain.

In terms of the boundary changes here, these may prove significant given the Lib Dems will be defending the seat. The current seat is very close to quota and no changes were needed other than to accomodate the changes required in neighbouring seats and the creation of the new Mid Buckinghamshire division. To the latter seat, this seat loses a large rural tract to the West of Chesham - Great Missenden and the part of Chiltern Ridges ward outside Chesham. To compensate for these, the initial proposals brought in Hazlemere from Wycombe and Beaconsfield from Beaconsfield. This was felt to be unsatisfactory and in place of Beaconsfield comes Gerrards Cross (or most of it). Gerrards Cross belnds seamlessly into the neighbouring area of Chalfont St Peter in this constituency and will fit in well here. Gerrards Cross is very safely Conservative even by the standards of South Bucks. Hazlemere is less so but has never been a strong area for the Lib Dems and the addition of over 12,000 voters who were not involved in the by-election (and the removal of a similar number who were) will clearly assist the Conservatives in the task of reversing that result.

[batman]

thought you had said "Gerrards Cross bellends" at first Pete, would have seemed a bit of a harsh generalisation

[Robert Waller]

2021 Census

Owner occupied 75.2% 52/573
Private rented 12.2% 551/573
Social rented 12.6% 399/573
White 84.7%
Black 0.9%
Asian 10.0%
Managerial & professional 47.5% 19/573
Routine & Semi-routine 13.9% 547/573
Degree level 47.3% 48/573
No qualifications 11.9% 544/573

[Pete Whitehead]

Notional result 2019 on the proposed new boundaries

Con	30788	55.0%
LD	12742	22.8%
Lab	8073	14.4%
Grn	2757	4.9%
Oth	1610	2.9%
Majority	18046	32.2%