sirbenjamin
IFP
True fame is reading your name written in graffiti, but without the words 'is a wanker' after it.
Posts: 4,979 
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Post by sirbenjamin on May 7, 2021 8:53:42 GMT
Thing is, when we're* winning Hartlepool on a big swing, while Putney and Canterbury and Warwick&Leamington are Labour-held, it does make one wonder if we are the bad guys. *I use the term with considerable hesitancy I think all it means is that the Conservatives have put together a massive election winning coalition. But White working class voters (of all ages) have replaced some of the Conservative inclined younger metropolitan university educated voters.
Indeed, and it's becoming a source of existential angst to me. The feeling that I increasingly have very little in common with the party and that an insurgency has taken place.
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sirbenjamin
IFP
True fame is reading your name written in graffiti, but without the words 'is a wanker' after it.
Posts: 4,979
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Post by sirbenjamin on May 7, 2021 8:54:26 GMT
(I probably don't have all that much in common with much of the IFP support base either!)
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 7, 2021 9:21:33 GMT
(I probably don't have all that much in common with much of the IFP support base either!) Perhaps you're what's politely called, 'an eccentric'  |
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,447
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on May 7, 2021 9:36:58 GMT
(I probably don't have all that much in common with much of the IFP support base either!) Perhaps you're what's politely called, 'an eccentric' Nowt wrong with that |
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Post by curiousliberal on May 7, 2021 9:51:15 GMT
But if those Brexit votes stick to the Tories that's another 30 or so seats in the bag Simply adding 2019 Conservative+Brexit vote totals gives 38 more constituencies in this category: Barnsley Central Barnsley East Bedford Blaydon Bradford South Chesterfield Coventry North West Coventry South Dagenham and Rainham Doncaster Central Doncaster North Easington Halifax Hartlepool
Hemsworth Houghton and Sunderland South Hull East Hull West and Hessle Makerfield Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford Oldham East and Saddleworth Rotherham Sheffield South East Stalybridge and Hyde Stockton North Sunderland Central Wansbeck Warrington North Warwick and Leamington Washington and Sunderland West Weaver Vale Wentworth and Dearne Wolverhampton South East Worsley and Eccles South Alyn and Deeside Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Newport East Newport West Torfaen It’s illustrative, but misguided. The Labour slump and turnout changes (with by-election health warnings) suggest to me that there are probably significant levels of BXP->Lab and direct Lab->Con switching going on. Were this to be repeated nationally in a GE, I would expect carnage for Labour in plenty of other seats. However, the trends aren’t likely to be as bleak (for them) in most seats. |
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Pimpernal
Forum Regular
A left-wing agenda within a right-wing framework...
Posts: 2,873
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Post by Pimpernal on May 7, 2021 10:04:21 GMT
Just woke up, thought con might well win despite the bet I placed, did not expect majority to be as large. Credit should also go to 3rd place -Samantha Lee. With a plethora of other candidates standing, she was very clearly in third place and the only other candidate to save their deposit. Yes - it's a very creditable performance for an Independent, especially in such a wide field of choices. What was her platform? Also somewhat amusing that Kurten's Heritage Party topped the ex-UKIP flotilla of parties... |
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sirbenjamin
IFP
True fame is reading your name written in graffiti, but without the words 'is a wanker' after it.
Posts: 4,979
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Post by sirbenjamin on May 7, 2021 10:04:56 GMT
(I probably don't have all that much in common with much of the IFP support base either!) Perhaps you're what's politely called, 'an eccentric'
That's putting it mildly. Very mildly. Extremely mildly.
Milder than drinking a pint of mild while eating mild cheddar and writing a Christmas Carol where the next line has to rhyme with 'child'.
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Post by Strontium Dog on May 7, 2021 10:12:23 GMT
Forgive me if it's been mentioned earlier in the thread (I looked but did not find), but there can't have been many elections where three former Labour MPs stood against each other?
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sirbenjamin
IFP
True fame is reading your name written in graffiti, but without the words 'is a wanker' after it.
Posts: 4,979
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Post by sirbenjamin on May 7, 2021 10:17:29 GMT
Pig'scock on BBC news now completely failing to get it. As per usual.
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 23,692
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Post by mboy on May 7, 2021 10:24:07 GMT
Thing is, when we're* winning Hartlepool on a big swing, while Putney and Canterbury and Warwick&Leamington are Labour-held, it does make one wonder if we are the bad guys. *I use the term with considerable hesitancy I think all it means is that the Conservatives have put together a massive election winning coalition. But White working class voters (of all ages) have replaced some of the Conservative inclined younger metropolitan university educated voters. Labour's problem is that the Culture War has dramatically increased the size of the inhabited political space on the Left. PC/Wokism now attracts 10-15-ish% of the population, including big chunks of ethnic minorities; but meanwhile the traditional working class hasn't moved much. It seems to me that there just isn't a tent big enough for this new leftwing landscape and the coalition can't hold, basically because the two ends of the coalition think the other end of bonkers. (Brexit has expanded the space on the right, but not by as much, and Brexit is a single decision and a minor change to life, compared to the Culture War's aims) In Europe this wouldn't be a problem, because PR and coalitions allow to flex. But as MerseyMike keeps saying, under fptp this is fatal. Labour's dilemma is that all the metropolitan movers and shakers who control the leftwing media would rather keep the Wokists than the Red Wall, even though seats of the latter hugely outnumber the former. Strategically this is a daft choice, because losing small numbers of city seats to Lib Dems/Greens never hurt Blair. Edit: The Tories are using a mild form of nationalism to keep their coalition together, which as we see from Scotland, works. |
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 23,692
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Post by mboy on May 7, 2021 10:43:10 GMT
And here it is:
Regardless of whether Labour *is* a party of middle class graduates, the voters clearly *think* it is.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on May 7, 2021 11:02:20 GMT
Perhaps you're what's politely called, 'an eccentric'
That's putting it mildly. Very mildly. Extremely mildly.
Milder than drinking a pint of mild while eating mild cheddar and writing a Christmas Carol where the next line has to rhyme with 'child'.
You are Edmund Blackadder... |
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on May 7, 2021 11:21:01 GMT
I think all it means is that the Conservatives have put together a massive election winning coalition. But White working class voters (of all ages) have replaced some of the Conservative inclined younger metropolitan university educated voters. Indeed, and it's becoming a source of existential angst to me. The feeling that I increasingly have very little in common with the party and that an insurgency has taken place.
Like you I really can't stand what the Conservative Party has become but I can't deny that I am taking a huge amount of pleasure in watching the utter implosion of the Labour Party. |
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on May 7, 2021 11:26:22 GMT
Pig'scock on BBC news now completely failing to get it. As per usual. Burgon has been at it as well. |
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kefin
Non-Aligned
Posts: 260
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Post by kefin on May 7, 2021 11:38:22 GMT
Really poor result for Reform During my time participating in national and local elections the sheer stupidity of various idiots having gained the ear of the hierarchy who dashed about earnestly with little folders under their arms at party conferences who imagined themselves as electioneering experts never ceased to surprise me. Its quite simple.......... if you've got a successful brand don't change it for a fairly bland anonymous one and expect anything other than oblivion. ( Yes I know Brexit has been done despite the tories still doing their best to make a mess of it but don't ditch a reasonably successful already recognised brand) UKIP took the best part of 15 - 20 years to get universal recognition and success with its brand and yet there were constantly morons within the party coming up with loony tune names and logos whilst advocating changing the party name to their own pet made up moniker. A perfect example was the admittedly very much in the past £ UKIP party logo which the self anointed experts were always trying to change but was instantly recognisable as the party logo....the voters don't care what your logo is as long as they recognise it on the ballot paper and associate it with your party. There really are some very thick deluded people wandering about in political party organisations who couldn't win a first past the post election themselves if they were the only candidate but yet don't stop advising those who can how to win elections. |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on May 7, 2021 11:48:39 GMT
Perhaps you're what's politely called, 'an eccentric'
That's putting it mildly. Very mildly. Extremely mildly.
Milder than drinking a pint of mild while eating mild cheddar and writing a Christmas Carol where the next line has to rhyme with 'child'.
Come revel, merry Christians and magnify that child, who lieth in a manger, son of the undefiled, with ox and ass and sheep and goat and other beasties wild, and angels sing for glory above the rooftop tiled, when the wise men brought their gold, Joseph duly smiled, O how these joyous tidings did get old Herod riled, and so the holy family to Egypt were exiled, and brought him back to Nazareth so he may thus be styled, thence onward into victory, by wicked men reviled, O listen to my awful lay, that ye be not beguiled, lest at the last more shocking rhymes should be for you compiled. |
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sirbenjamin
IFP
True fame is reading your name written in graffiti, but without the words 'is a wanker' after it.
Posts: 4,979
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Post by sirbenjamin on May 7, 2021 11:50:30 GMT
That's putting it mildly. Very mildly. Extremely mildly.
Milder than drinking a pint of mild while eating mild cheddar and writing a Christmas Carol where the next line has to rhyme with 'child'.
Come revel, merry Christians and magnify that child, who lieth in a manger, son of the undefiled, with ox and ass and sheep and goat and other beasties wild, and angels sing for glory above the rooftop tiled, when the wise men brought their gold, Joseph duly smiled, O how these joyous tidings did get old Herod riled, and so the holy family to Egypt were exiled, and brought him back to Nazareth so he may thus be styled, thence onward into victory, by wicked men reviled, O listen to my awful lay, that ye be not beguiled, lest at the last more shocking rhymes should be for you compiled. I don't think I'll be able to resist setting this to music. |
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Post by minionofmidas on May 7, 2021 13:31:31 GMT
Don't think when makes a lot of difference, Hartlepool is just reflecting a North East trend this year, so delaying the election a few months wouldn't have made any difference. Starmer is ineffective in the North East, unlike Boris. Add in Brexit, Vaccine bounce, view Labour is a middle class party now, Hartlepool was a hiding to nothing for him. Its not just Starmer, its Labour as a whole that need to think what it stands for, is it a South East England party or a national one?
Oh, Labour will get votes outside the south-east......but really, it isn't about area. At the moment I don't know what Labour wants to be, and as they seem to have nothing much to say, it's not easy to work that out. There isn't a great deal of point trying to do Conservatism better than the Tories, and all I can say is that I know so many people who either spoiled their paper or didn't vote yesterday. I have made it clear what I think they should do, but their majoritarian impulses remain strong! Is that what they're trying to do? I thought they were trying to do Clegg mimicry more cringeyly than CUK did. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on May 7, 2021 13:46:23 GMT
Whatever they are doing, its not being done terribly well. I think that at least can be agreed on  |
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johnloony
Conservative
Posts: 24,532
Member is Online
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Post by johnloony on May 7, 2021 14:48:22 GMT
So: it’s the biggest increase in the share of the vote (and the biggest swing) in favour of the government party since WW2, but it’s the biggest since which other by-election?
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