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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on May 7, 2021 6:59:13 GMT
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right
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Post by right on May 7, 2021 7:00:08 GMT
I think the Lib Dems were fifth in Rochester & Strood but 7th here. tbh, when the result is this bad and there is a wide choice of minor candidates, the ordering of the candidates is not particularly significant unless you just want to make a political point. Which of course you do. Being firmly and unarguably among the minor parties is particularly significant |
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right
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Post by right on May 7, 2021 7:02:11 GMT
But but but wallpaper-gate? Surely poor people in Hartlepool are upset about how Boris buys his wallpaper? And the fact that we don't know how many children Boris has |
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Post by lancastrian on May 7, 2021 7:03:32 GMT
Thelma Walker got 2 more votes than the sex offender who also beat the Women's Equality party lol If my mental arithmetic is correct the Lib Dems only beat the sex offender by 101 votes... lol How did he beat seven candidates?? Including one and almost two former MPs. |
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right
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Post by right on May 7, 2021 7:04:53 GMT
Brexit Party + CON in 2019 = 54.7% Reform + CON in 2021 = 53.1% So arguably no change really. Just mopping up Brexit votes which will not last forever But if those Brexit votes stick to the Tories that's another 30 or so seats in the bag |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on May 7, 2021 7:09:02 GMT
Boris has 2024 sown up for the Conservatives already, they'd be stupid to get rid of him as leader until he becomes toxic like Maggie at the end. (assuming he wants to stay in the job)
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on May 7, 2021 7:09:35 GMT
Brexit Party + CON in 2019 = 54.7% Reform + CON in 2021 = 53.1% Less leakage to the vastly wider choice of other candidates than: LAB in 2019 = 37.7% LAB in 2021 = 28.7% |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on May 7, 2021 7:10:53 GMT
Anyone expect him to? What a bitchy comment from a journalist |
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right
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Post by right on May 7, 2021 7:14:27 GMT
Boris has 2024 sown up for the Conservatives already, they'd be stupid to get rid of him as leader until he becomes toxic like Maggie at the end. (assuming he wants to stay in the job) General Elections are never sewn up, but yes Boris is still the great vote getter |
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Post by carlton43 on May 7, 2021 7:19:14 GMT
Hartlepool by-election result: David Bettney, SDP, 140. Nick the Flying Brick, OMRLP, 108. Hilton Dawson, North East Party, 163. Gemma Evans, WEP, 140. Rachel Featherstone, Green, 358. Adam Gaines, Independent, 126. Andrew Hagon, Liberal Democrats, 349. Stephen Jack, Freedom Alliance, 72. Christopher Killick, 248. Samantha Lee, Independent, 2904. Claire Martin, Heritage, 468. Jill Mortimer, Conservative, 15,529. John Prescott, Reform UK, 368. Thelma Walker, Independent, 250. W. Ralph Ward Jackson, Independent, 157. Paul Williams, Labour, 8,589. Conservative gain from Labour. Think how well the Conservertives might have done here had they not fielded a colourless, non-local, who was disliked, spent most of her life in a tax haven as a tax-avoiding exile, and then running a useless campaign. They could have chosen a well-liked former MP who was a revered member of the sacrosanct class of valiant medics toiling against Covid and won the seat? Will they never learn. They got everything wrong and will just have to live with the result of their utter stupidity. Labour did everything right and deserve the result they have achieved. |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on May 7, 2021 7:23:54 GMT
So arguably no change really. Just mopping up Brexit votes which will not last forever But if those Brexit votes stick to the Tories that's another 30 or so seats in the bag Simply adding 2019 Conservative+Brexit vote totals gives 38 more constituencies in this category: Barnsley Central Barnsley East Bedford Blaydon Bradford South Chesterfield Coventry North West Coventry South Dagenham and Rainham Doncaster Central Doncaster North Easington Halifax Hartlepool
Hemsworth Houghton and Sunderland South Hull East Hull West and Hessle Makerfield Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford Oldham East and Saddleworth Rotherham Sheffield South East Stalybridge and Hyde Stockton North Sunderland Central Wansbeck Warrington North Warwick and Leamington Washington and Sunderland West Weaver Vale Wentworth and Dearne Wolverhampton South East Worsley and Eccles South Alyn and Deeside Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Newport East Newport West Torfaen |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 7, 2021 7:28:47 GMT
31% swing from Labour to Conservative since 1997
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Post by thirdchill on May 7, 2021 7:55:37 GMT
Just woke up, thought con might well win despite the bet I placed, did not expect majority to be as large.
Credit should also go to 3rd place -Samantha Lee. With a plethora of other candidates standing, she was very clearly in third place and the only other candidate to save their deposit.
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mboy
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Post by mboy on May 7, 2021 7:59:44 GMT
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Post by riccimarsh on May 7, 2021 8:02:16 GMT
If my mental arithmetic is correct the Lib Dems only beat the sex offender by 101 votes... lol How did he beat seven candidates?? Including one and almost two former MPs. Haha yeh, I imagine a) a degree of not knowing his history; b) people who are like “wa-hey, I wanna stick it to these career politicians” and c) actual sex offenders lol. |
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Post by johnhemming on May 7, 2021 8:07:47 GMT
I have not bothered looking at the other by-elections in the list, but this is a relatively meaningless headline figure. The Tory/Brexit vote has remained about constant. |
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sirbenjamin
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Post by sirbenjamin on May 7, 2021 8:26:24 GMT
But if those Brexit votes stick to the Tories that's another 30 or so seats in the bag Simply adding 2019 Conservative+Brexit vote totals gives 38 more constituencies in this category: Barnsley Central Barnsley East Bedford Blaydon Bradford South Chesterfield Coventry North West Coventry South Dagenham and Rainham Doncaster Central Doncaster North Easington Halifax Hartlepool
Hemsworth Houghton and Sunderland South Hull East Hull West and Hessle Makerfield Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford Oldham East and Saddleworth Rotherham Sheffield South East Stalybridge and Hyde Stockton North Sunderland Central Wansbeck Warrington North Warwick and Leamington Washington and Sunderland West Weaver Vale Wentworth and Dearne Wolverhampton South East Worsley and Eccles South Alyn and Deeside Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Newport East Newport West Torfaen
I assume we'll get a letter signed by the MPs for these constituencies publicly thanking the Brexit Party for saving their seats...
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sirbenjamin
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Post by sirbenjamin on May 7, 2021 8:32:52 GMT
Thing is, when we're* winning Hartlepool on a big swing, while Putney and Canterbury and Warwick&Leamington are Labour-held, it does make one wonder if we are the bad guys.
*I use the term with considerable hesitancy
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on May 7, 2021 8:36:08 GMT
I have not bothered looking at the other by-elections in the list, but this is a relatively meaningless headline figure. The Tory/Brexit vote has remained about constant. Barnsley, 1953, was similar in that it came down to there being a Liberal candidate at the General Election but not the by-election. |
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pl
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Post by pl on May 7, 2021 8:46:37 GMT
Thing is, when we're* winning Hartlepool on a big swing, while Putney and Canterbury and Warwick&Leamington are Labour-held, it does make one wonder if we are the bad guys. *I use the term with considerable hesitancy I think all it means is that the Conservatives have put together a massive election winning coalition. But White working class voters (of all ages) have replaced some of the Conservative inclined younger metropolitan university educated voters. |
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