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Post by pragmaticidealist on May 7, 2021 6:17:30 GMT
When was the last time the Lib Dems did this badly in a parliamentary bye election? They had some horrifying ones during the Coalition years. |
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Post by andrewp on May 7, 2021 6:17:53 GMT
Like any sensible person , I have just woken up after a night's sleep knowing that we would still be waiting. Me too! 8 hours sleep and I thought we would still be waiting. |
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Post by Andrew_S on May 7, 2021 6:18:27 GMT
Who's going to be first to try and work out what a 16% swing to the Tories would produce in a national election?  Oh, that's easy. It would leave Sir Norman Fowler in Sutton Coldfield as the only MP still standing. |
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Post by yellowperil on May 7, 2021 6:18:28 GMT
Like any sensible person , I have just woken up after a night's sleep knowing that we would still be waiting. Well excuse me but the Returning Officer herself said at 04:13am that the result would be declared within an hour or so. I have been around in this game too long to believe anybody's estimate of when to expect a result. And especially the RO. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 7, 2021 6:19:55 GMT
When was the last time the Lib Dems did this badly in a parliamentary bye election? They got less than 1% in Rochester & Strood in 2014 (funnily enough with exactly the same number of votes) |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 7, 2021 6:20:21 GMT
Brexit Party + CON in 2019 = 54.7%
Reform + CON in 2021 = 53.1%
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,142
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Post by cogload on May 7, 2021 6:23:15 GMT
When was the last time the Lib Dems did this badly in a parliamentary bye election? It's in line with our national polling....  |
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zoe
Conservative
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Post by zoe on May 7, 2021 6:24:33 GMT
When was the last time the Lib Dems did this badly in a parliamentary bye election? They got less than 1% in Rochester & Strood in 2014 (funnily enough with exactly the same number of votes) I think the Lib Dems were fifth in Rochester & Strood but 7th here. |
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Post by andrew111 on May 7, 2021 6:26:16 GMT
Brexit Party + CON in 2019 = 54.7% Reform + CON in 2021 = 53.1% So arguably no change really. Just mopping up Brexit votes which will not last forever |
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Post by Merseymike on May 7, 2021 6:26:42 GMT
Starmer really does deserve flak for having called this by election. Don't think when makes a lot of difference, Hartlepool is just reflecting a North East trend this year, so delaying the election a few months wouldn't have made any difference. Starmer is ineffective in the North East, unlike Boris. Add in Brexit, Vaccine bounce, view Labour is a middle class party now, Hartlepool was a hiding to nothing for him. Its not just Starmer, its Labour as a whole that need to think what it stands for, is it a South East England party or a national one?
Oh, Labour will get votes outside the south-east......but really, it isn't about area. At the moment I don't know what Labour wants to be, and as they seem to have nothing much to say, it's not easy to work that out. There isn't a great deal of point trying to do Conservatism better than the Tories, and all I can say is that I know so many people who either spoiled their paper or didn't vote yesterday. I have made it clear what I think they should do, but their majoritarian impulses remain strong! |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 7, 2021 6:26:58 GMT
They got less than 1% in Rochester & Strood in 2014 (funnily enough with exactly the same number of votes) I think the Lib Dems were fifth in Rochester & Strood but 7th here. If that's your measure of how 'badly' they have done, you should have said so. They came 8th in Rotherham in 2012 |
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Post by johnloony on May 7, 2021 6:30:35 GMT
I have just phoned the Flying Brick to congratulate him on doing another Bootle (beating the SDP) even though he only came 14th out of 16 candidates (the SDP came 15th), and to tell him that I had triumphantly stayed awake all through the night.
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Post by yellowperil on May 7, 2021 6:34:39 GMT
They got less than 1% in Rochester & Strood in 2014 (funnily enough with exactly the same number of votes) I think the Lib Dems were fifth in Rochester & Strood but 7th here. tbh, when the result is this bad and there is a wide choice of minor candidates, the ordering of the candidates is not particularly significant unless you just want to make a political point. Which of course you do. |
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zoe
Conservative
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Post by zoe on May 7, 2021 6:36:48 GMT
I think the Lib Dems were fifth in Rochester & Strood but 7th here. If that's your measure of how 'badly' they have done, you should have said so. They came 8th in Rotherham in 2012 Thanks, had forgotten that. |
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Post by pragmaticidealist on May 7, 2021 6:39:18 GMT
Brexit Party + CON in 2019 = 54.7% Reform + CON in 2021 = 53.1% So arguably no change really. Just mopping up Brexit votes which will not last forever The political climate and reasons for voting which way or another were quite fundamentally different in 2019. And independents (which almost always get votes from various directions) mustered up a sizeable chunk of the vote between them. |
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jamie
Top Poster
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Post by jamie on May 7, 2021 6:42:22 GMT
That’s a really horrendous performance by Labour. Even if you account for the Brexit Party vote switching en masse to the Conservatives, why the are Labour themselves down 9%? As awful as some council results have been elsewhere, Labour’s performance here sticks out as noticeably shambolic.
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Post by tonyhill on May 7, 2021 6:44:21 GMT
I see I predicted this on March 16th - one of my better predictions! (Though of course the betting was on a Conservative victory from the start).
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 23,716
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Post by mboy on May 7, 2021 6:51:46 GMT
But but but wallpaper-gate? Surely poor people in Hartlepool are upset about how Boris buys his wallpaper?
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Post by riccimarsh on May 7, 2021 6:53:50 GMT
Thelma Walker got 2 more votes than the sex offender who also beat the Women's Equality party lol If my mental arithmetic is correct the Lib Dems only beat the sex offender by 101 votes... lol |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on May 7, 2021 6:56:39 GMT
Seriously though, Kier Starmer needs to stop taking of the knee and kowtowing to Londoners. It's a shame for Labour that Caroline Flint lost, she'd have fit the bill.
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