johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850 
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Post by johng on May 6, 2021 21:17:31 GMT
How good is Labour's data in Hartlepool?
I have absolutely no idea, but I do know in a couple of South Wales marginal seats it is incredibly patchy and gives anything but a conclusive picture. This is especially true in places where the local party has essentially won everything for decades (like Hartlepool).
This isn't a criticism of Labour though and will obviously be true of all parties.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 6, 2021 21:23:38 GMT
I'm not sure Hartlepool will have been regarded as safe by Labour. The 2004 byelection will have generated a lot of voter ID data. And local elections were competitive in most wards even when Labour won majorities on the council. The local party may not have had the resources to get a lot of voterID at recent elections but they would certainly have been doing it.
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Post by formerfifer on May 6, 2021 21:25:35 GMT
Tories are much better at things like GOTV. Really? I'd always been under the impression that they lagged behind the Liberal Democrats and Labour in that respect. But to be fair, in my constituency the Conservatives aren't really competitive so maybe they don't make the effort. |
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Post by peterski on May 6, 2021 21:33:52 GMT
If all these rumours are even just half way true from places like Hartlepool and Sunderland then this is an existential crisis for Labour . The Labour brand is becoming toxic in places like these and voters are turning out to vote 'anti-Labour' whether it is Tory,lib dem or independent .
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Post by johnloony on May 6, 2021 21:37:56 GMT
I was in the middle of watching "Citizen Kane" on BBC4 (I decided to watch it because I have never seen it before, and it has a reputation for being one of the greatest films ever) and I was finding it peculiar, mediocre, disappointing, and confusing... when I was phoned by Nick "the Flying Brick" Delves, the OMRLP candidate in Hartlepool. We chatted vaguely about stuff, and I was grateful to him for giving me a valid excuse to switch off the TV and abandon Citizen Kane.
But among other things, he says he is expecting to come "only about 9th" out of the 16 candidates, because he hasn't bothered to do any campaigning. The main reason why he phoned was because he wanted to clarify the technicalities of what the "verification" stage of a count is, and what it's for. So I explained about how the main parties do tallying from the boxes and compare their data with canvassing returns.
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,455
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on May 6, 2021 21:41:33 GMT
I was in the middle of watching "Citizen Kane" on BBC4 (I decided to watch it because I have never seen it before, and it has a reputation for being one of the greatest films ever) and I was finding it peculiar, mediocre, disappointing, and confusing... when I was phoned by Nick "the Flying Brick" Delves, the OMRLP candidate in Hartlepool. We chatted vaguely about stuff, and I was grateful to him for giving me a valid excuse to switch off the TV and abandon Citizen Kane. But among other things, he says he is expecting to come "only about 9th" out of the 16 candidates, because he hasn't bothered to do any campaigning. The main reason why he phoned was because he wanted to clarify the technicalities of what the "verification" stage of a count is, and what it's for. So I explained about how the main parties do tallying from the boxes and compare their data with canvassing returns. We saw the film through to the bitter end few months but were similarly disappointed |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 6, 2021 21:42:13 GMT
In Westminster North we have box tallies from previous elections which allow us to get a ballpark estimate of the result very early. When we had a very close result in 2015 the agent was able to reassure the MP at a very early stage that it was still OK.
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Post by Ron Swanson on May 6, 2021 21:44:14 GMT
Tories are much better at things like GOTV. Really? I'd always been under the impression that they lagged behind the Liberal Democrats and Labour in that respect. But to be fair, in my constituency the Conservatives aren't really competitive so maybe they don't make the effort. Better than whatever party Farage is leading. All the enthusiasm among the members but zero strategy. The three main parties will be a mixed bag, I’ve been out today doing some GOTV and the data is incredibly good. In a marginal ward not one ID’d Tory voter switching to someone else. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on May 6, 2021 21:46:34 GMT
I was in the middle of watching "Citizen Kane" on BBC4 (I decided to watch it because I have never seen it before, and it has a reputation for being one of the greatest films ever) and I was finding it peculiar, mediocre, disappointing, and confusing... when I was phoned by Nick "the Flying Brick" Delves, the OMRLP candidate in Hartlepool. We chatted vaguely about stuff, and I was grateful to him for giving me a valid excuse to switch off the TV and abandon Citizen Kane. But among other things, he says he is expecting to come "only about 9th" out of the 16 candidates, because he hasn't bothered to do any campaigning. The main reason why he phoned was because he wanted to clarify the technicalities of what the "verification" stage of a count is, and what it's for. So I explained about how the main parties do tallying from the boxes and compare their data with canvassing returns.That's not what verification is for. That's not why we do box tallies. |
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850
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Post by johng on May 6, 2021 21:56:06 GMT
I'm not sure Hartlepool will have been regarded as safe by Labour. The 2004 byelection will have generated a lot of voter ID data. And local elections were competitive in most wards even when Labour won majorities on the council. The local party may not have had the resources to get a lot of voterID at recent elections but they would certainly have been doing it. I wasn't saying they'd have none, but it'd be quite limited. Around here, a lot of the cllr led stuff is more on the more informal side and I imagine it could be the same there.
2004 is practically ancient history as well. If they are getting 40% of 2004 data, that's incredibly good for Labour.
Edit - Labour now available at 25-1 on the betting market.
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Post by edinburghtory on May 6, 2021 21:58:52 GMT
In Westminster North we have box tallies from previous elections which allow us to get a ballpark estimate of the result very early. When we had a very close result in 2015 the agent was able to reassure the MP at a very early stage that it was still OK. I have it down to a fine art and can usually get every party with 0.5% now we have had a few goes although we have been told that we are unlikely to be able to do it effectively this time due to social distancing. |
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Post by pragmaticidealist on May 6, 2021 21:59:22 GMT
I was in the middle of watching "Citizen Kane" on BBC4 (I decided to watch it because I have never seen it before, and it has a reputation for being one of the greatest films ever) and I was finding it peculiar, mediocre, disappointing, and confusing... when I was phoned by Nick "the Flying Brick" Delves, the OMRLP candidate in Hartlepool. We chatted vaguely about stuff, and I was grateful to him for giving me a valid excuse to switch off the TV and abandon Citizen Kane. But among other things, he says he is expecting to come "only about 9th" out of the 16 candidates, because he hasn't bothered to do any campaigning. The main reason why he phoned was because he wanted to clarify the technicalities of what the "verification" stage of a count is, and what it's for. So I explained about how the main parties do tallying from the boxes and compare their data with canvassing returns. I've read that it's an acquired taste. Saw it about two and a half years ago. I enjoyed it, but it's not one of those crowd-pleasers. |
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Post by johnloony on May 6, 2021 22:08:55 GMT
I was in the middle of watching "Citizen Kane" on BBC4 (I decided to watch it because I have never seen it before, and it has a reputation for being one of the greatest films ever) and I was finding it peculiar, mediocre, disappointing, and confusing... when I was phoned by Nick "the Flying Brick" Delves, the OMRLP candidate in Hartlepool. We chatted vaguely about stuff, and I was grateful to him for giving me a valid excuse to switch off the TV and abandon Citizen Kane. But among other things, he says he is expecting to come "only about 9th" out of the 16 candidates, because he hasn't bothered to do any campaigning. The main reason why he phoned was because he wanted to clarify the technicalities of what the "verification" stage of a count is, and what it's for. So I explained about how the main parties do tallying from the boxes and compare their data with canvassing returns.That's not what verification is for. That's not why we do box tallies. I never said it was, and I never said you did. What I actually wrote was that I explained what the verification stage of a count is for, and then I went on to explain about how and why the main parties do tallying and canvassing. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on May 6, 2021 22:11:11 GMT
Really? I'd always been under the impression that they lagged behind the Liberal Democrats and Labour in that respect. But to be fair, in my constituency the Conservatives aren't really competitive so maybe they don't make the effort. Better than whatever party Farage is leading. All the enthusiasm among the members but zero strategy. The three main parties will be a mixed bag, I’ve been out today doing some GOTV and the data is incredibly good. In a marginal ward not one ID’d Tory voter switching to someone else. Or that's what they tell you . . .  By the way, I take it you're not non-aligned ? |
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Post by gwynthegriff on May 6, 2021 22:14:38 GMT
SMarkets currently gives Labour a 9% chance of winning.Perhaps as much as 50% of the final turnout will be via PVs which should mean that party officials will have a pretty clear picure of what is likely to happen. Easy to carry out Tallies from the PV verification process. I wouldn't say "easy" though the multiple ballot papers and the lengthy parliamentary ballot paper may help. |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on May 6, 2021 22:21:01 GMT
SMarkets currently gives Labour a 9% chance of winning.Perhaps as much as 50% of the final turnout will be via PVs which should mean that party officials will have a pretty clear picure of what is likely to happen. Easy to carry out Tallies from the PV verification process. I wouldn't say "easy" though the multiple ballot papers and the lengthy parliamentary ballot paper may help. Especially if observers are kept 2m away from those who are opening and 2m away from other parties like some councils are enforcing. |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on May 6, 2021 22:25:53 GMT
Never seen Citizen Kane all the way through, agree it's boring. The Third Man is a good Welles film, but CK is just awful.
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Post by edinburghtory on May 6, 2021 23:11:31 GMT
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Post by pragmaticidealist on May 6, 2021 23:16:08 GMT
That means the poll showing the Tories 17% ahead is probably going to underestimate the scale of their win. Could be expectations management, although, it would now seem, only in the sense of the scale of the Tory win. |
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Post by johnloony on May 7, 2021 0:34:28 GMT
Perhaps I should have mentioned that The Flying Brick said that he was told that the verification stage was going to start at 1:30am. I told him that it was probably because of the need to verb all the other elections as well as the by-election.
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