Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 6, 2021 17:14:49 GMT
I know it's been mentioned above, but is Hartlepool counting overnight? By election I mean. Yes, declaration expected around 4am apparently. Which is by-election speak for "some time before Christmas" |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,748
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Post by Chris from Brum on May 6, 2021 17:20:15 GMT
I know it's been mentioned above, but is Hartlepool counting overnight? By election I mean. Yes, declaration expected around 4am apparently. Which is by-election speak for "some time before Christmas" Steady on, this isn't Tower Hamlets. Or the State of New York. |
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Post by pragmaticidealist on May 6, 2021 17:30:00 GMT
What time do the semi-reliable rumours begin?
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on May 6, 2021 17:31:29 GMT
Odds on Labour to win are now up to 12-1 with one site. I think this is a pretty decent return for the gambler.
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Post by minionofmidas on May 6, 2021 17:40:55 GMT
Yes, declaration expected around 4am apparently. Which is by-election speak for "some time before Christmas" Steady on, this isn't Tower Hamlets. Or the State of New York. well duh, New York finishes counting some time after christmas. |
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Post by greenhert on May 6, 2021 18:45:48 GMT
Odds on Labour to win are now up to 12-1 with one site. I think this is a pretty decent return for the gambler. Not in politics, generally. |
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on May 6, 2021 19:01:10 GMT
Odds on Labour to win are now up to 12-1 with one site. I think this is a pretty decent return for the gambler. Not in politics, generally. Do you not think 12s is a value bet? Maybe not in racing but in everything else it probably is. |
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Post by greenhert on May 6, 2021 19:11:38 GMT
Not in politics, generally. Do you not think 12s is a value bet? Maybe not in racing but in everything else it probably is. Politics is less random than racing; many outcomes are essentially predetermined. This by-election is not one of them, of course, but at this point the chances of a Labour hold are below 8% given current polling and how fragmented the non-Conservative vote will be. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on May 6, 2021 19:14:21 GMT
Not in politics, generally. Do you not think 12s is a value bet? Maybe not in racing but in everything else it probably is. Legend has it you could still have got 8/1 for Willie Rennie winning the Dunfermline by-election in 2006, while the Returning Officer was making his way to the stage. |
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on May 6, 2021 19:22:04 GMT
Do you not think 12s is a value bet? Maybe not in racing but in everything else it probably is. Politics is less random than racing; many outcomes are essentially predetermined. This by-election is not one of them, of course, but at this point the chances of a Labour hold are below 8% given current polling and how fragmented the non-Conservative vote will be. It's still a value bet (depending on definition of value). |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,907
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Post by Tony Otim on May 6, 2021 19:27:43 GMT
You've got to hand it to Labour - they've managed to create a situation where narrowly holding (by the smallest of margins) a seat they've held since 1964 in a by-election whilst in opposition would now seem like a good result.
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Post by justin124 on May 6, 2021 20:01:05 GMT
SMarkets currently gives Labour a 9% chance of winning.Perhaps as much as 50% of the final turnout will be via PVs which should mean that party officials will have a pretty clear picure of what is likely to happen.Easy to carry out Tallies from the PV verification process.
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Post by justin124 on May 6, 2021 20:03:12 GMT
Starmer really does deserve flak for having called this by election. |
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Post by Ron Swanson on May 6, 2021 20:12:28 GMT
You've got to hand it to Labour - they've managed to create a situation where narrowly holding (by the smallest of margins) a seat they've held since 1964 in a by-election whilst in opposition would now seem like a good result. I remember Cat Smith coming on after they got beat in Copeland saying losing by 2000 was a good result. Opposition parties shouldn’t lose by elections to the government. Even in extreme circumstances. |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,809
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Post by right on May 6, 2021 20:29:05 GMT
Internal polling gets leaked for plenty of reasons, of which giving a newspaper a true and fair view of the state of play is easy down the scale If the Tories narrowly lose this will be seen as a decent Labour result Even a narrow win won't be seen as awful as it would have been five weeks ago Labour won the expectations game And they're great value |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on May 6, 2021 20:31:51 GMT
Perhaps as much as 50% of the final turnout will be via PVs Goodness, that warehouse in Birmingham must be in overdrive. |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,809
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Post by right on May 6, 2021 20:32:06 GMT
I'm the jinx, but switched to a Tory win
Still think Labour are great value
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 6, 2021 20:43:00 GMT
Well, I’ve blinked, and switched to a Tory gain.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 6, 2021 20:48:36 GMT
Conservatives to pool most of the BXP and CON vote from 2019 and win the seat I think
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Post by Ron Swanson on May 6, 2021 21:03:38 GMT
I'm the jinx, but switched to a Tory win Still think Labour are great value Tories are much better at things like GOTV. Brexit Party lost Peterborough when they were like 1/50 with the bookies on polling night but for all Farage was successful, he knew jack shit about data and GOTV. As much of a hash of many things the Tories have made, the vaccine roll out has been good compared to elsewhere and they’ve paid folk to stay at home for a year. That’ll count for something... |
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