Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,912
|
Post by Tony Otim on Mar 26, 2021 11:41:21 GMT
That looks very plausible. The top figures look believable. I'll believe it when I see it that we're going to get 7% in Hartlepool... |
|
|
|
Post by greenhert on Mar 26, 2021 13:15:49 GMT
That looks very plausible. The top figures look believable. I'll believe it when I see it that we're going to get 7% in Hartlepool... Also, I do not know who the Green Party candidate for the Hartlepool by-election is yet. When will we know? |
|
|
|
Post by carlton43 on Mar 26, 2021 13:34:01 GMT
We are short of information and current on site polling and we don't know all who will stand and thus cannot work out the intra-party dynamics until we do know these things.
Not only does the number of candidates matter, but it is the quality of those candidates, the funding and support for them, and their supposed fit to Hartlepool that matter. When all that has been established and we have seen 3-or more reasonable polls on a respectable model and a large enough sample, from firms we have even a bit of respect for, then, and only then will any forecast by any of us make much sense.
The main benefit to Labour must be that their opponents are likely to split their vote over far too many candidates? And that Labour will be challenged from the left by few serious funded and supported candidates?
So, I am not voting yet, but lean to a modest to narrow Labour hold over an improved Conservative runner up.
|
|
CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,732
|
Post by CatholicLeft on Mar 26, 2021 13:54:31 GMT
I find the belief that the North East Party will do well a little surprising. Fair enough, they have a former MP standing, but he left parliament 16 years ago, represented a Lancashire seat and is based in his home of Newbiggin-by-the-Sea, which is over 40 miles away. Having lived in Durham, I can tell you that Hartlepool is not likely to see Mr Dawson as in any way a local and, with a Newbiggin-born godson, I can tell you they speak a with a very different accent.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,009
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Mar 26, 2021 14:45:26 GMT
Bootle has actually had a Tory MP, and in the lifetime of at least two regulars here. (and there was another in that category until yesterday) That post has not made us feel better I can assure you. I can assure you that was not my intention  |
|
|
|
Post by carlton43 on Mar 26, 2021 14:50:09 GMT
That post has not made us feel better I can assure you. I can assure you that was not my intention Quite so, Your Grace! Dissappointed that should take time out to Labour the point still further when we were already feeling less than secure, what with Covid, lockdowns and the rapid demise of much of our generation. |
|
stash
Forum Regular
Posts: 51
|
Post by stash on Mar 26, 2021 16:41:54 GMT
The Twitter Independence party are selecting on Sunday. The most notable name on the shortlist is former Colne Valley MP Thelma Walker, who is joined by John Pendergast & Jim Crow.
|
|
ilerda
Conservative
Posts: 1,103
Member is Online
|
Post by ilerda on Mar 26, 2021 17:16:15 GMT
Does the entire membership get a vote?
Would have been interesting to see the outcome if Labour had tried that for their selection...
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 26, 2021 17:18:45 GMT
Does the entire membership get a vote? Would have been interesting to see the outcome if Labour had tried that for their selection... That list is the entire membership |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 26, 2021 17:19:51 GMT
I find the belief that the North East Party will do well a little surprising. Fair enough, they have a former MP standing, but he left parliament 16 years ago, represented a Lancashire seat and is based in his home of Newbiggin-by-the-Sea, which is over 40 miles away. Having lived in Durham, I can tell you that Hartlepool is not likely to see Mr Dawson as in any way a local and, with a Newbiggin-born godson, I can tell you they speak a with a very different accent. It's even more surprising that 2 people have voted for a Northern Independence gain in the poll |
|
YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
Member is Online
|
Post by YL on Mar 26, 2021 17:27:53 GMT
What's the record for the number of former MPs contesting a single seat?
|
|
stash
Forum Regular
Posts: 51
|
Post by stash on Mar 26, 2021 17:31:43 GMT
Does the entire membership get a vote? Would have been interesting to see the outcome if Labour had tried that for their selection... Yes, all members are eligible, verified Northerner or not. Encouraging signs from the NIP's 'Nominating Officer' on their support in Hartlepool: |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 26, 2021 17:33:38 GMT
They make a lot of noise on Twitter but I suspect most of their supporters and activists are based in places like Liverpool and Manchester That's a bit generous. I feel like most of the support I see for them on Twitter comes from southerners! To be fair most of the people I see anywhere trying to identify "the north" as cultural and political unit are southerners. In my experience most "northerners" are more likely to identify with their specific area (I'm pretty sure my grandad's family would tell you they were from "Morley", "near Leeds" or "Yorkshire" before they said they were Northern) |
|
|
|
Post by bjornhattan on Mar 26, 2021 17:38:50 GMT
That's a bit generous. I feel like most of the support I see for them on Twitter comes from southerners! To be fair most of the people I see anywhere trying to identify "the north" as cultural and political unit are southerners. In my experience most "northerners" are more likely to identify with their specific area (I'm pretty sure my grandad's family would tell you they were from "Morley", "near Leeds" or "Yorkshire" before they said they were Northern) My experience is the only people who specifically identify as "northern" tend to be middle class people from the nice bits of Cheshire, because they want to come across as less posh than they are! |
|
|
|
Post by Merseymike on Mar 26, 2021 17:46:43 GMT
I think that's true, but a good or bad MP (or challenger) can be the difference between just holding on or a seat being a prominent scalp. The ability to attract activists from the other party doesn't seem to me to be a big factor. I know that there's McVey, but the effect seems to be that activists turn up where the party doesn't (or shouldn't) want them while ignoring real marginals near by. It seems to be a relatively recent phenomena. I remember in 97 Labour flooding Edmonton while largely ignoring Portillo's Enfield Southgate - although in 97 Labour seemed to be bursting at the seams with young activists who actually did things so they probably did have some to spare to do things just about everywhere. The distribution of activists in 2019 by Labour/momentum also appears to have been a disaster. It was widely reported that activists were diverted to Altrincham and Sale W instead of Bury North when the latter was crying out for more help... they went on to lose by 105 votes and didn’t come any closer in ASW... the mind boggles. If they didn’t win in 97, why was it even a target in ‘19 when they were behind in polls? I find it even less likely Brady will ever lose with his national presence in light of the Tiers scandal and standing up for the area, ironically on the same side as Burnham. Unless there are some who feel his lockdown skepticism is too much. I’m not sure if there could have been any such blunders in the North East one would hope (other than general complacency)... or what next, don’t tell me they sent all their activists to Hexham?! I wouldn’t be surprised if they sent a lot to Middlesbrough South but that would make sense given the closeness of the ‘17 defeat though the ‘19 result is just embarrassing. I'm sure I have said about this before - first, Momentum really weren't 'directing people' in that sense at all. Activists end up going to the seats they can easily get to - and in the case of younger activists in cities, that means by public transport. In this area, Southport could have done with more help, but the reality is that if you live in South Liverpool, its a lot easier to get to the Wirral. Indeed, while Southport does have a train line, the Labour HQ wasn't actually anywhere near it (yes, I did bring this to their attention), so it wasn;t actually a post-day in the office viable proposition Activists really don't get 'sent' to places in the main - its much more a case of 'oh, I've got time tonight, where shall I go?' and they go to the place its easier for them to get to. If car pools are organised, then its down to the driver and where they are heading to, and you go along with them. |
|
|
|
Post by bjornhattan on Mar 26, 2021 17:49:53 GMT
Fake news! The account which tweeted that is a decoy. |
|
mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 23,822
Member is Online
|
Post by mboy on Mar 26, 2021 17:55:35 GMT
 Deleted |
|
|
|
Post by Merseymike on Mar 26, 2021 17:59:43 GMT
It will be most interesting to see just how many tweets get re-tweeted without any checking at all, from this account.
|
|
Andrew_S
Top Poster
Posts: 28,238
Member is Online
|
Post by Andrew_S on Mar 26, 2021 18:05:15 GMT
That poll looked a bit too interesting to be real.  |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 26, 2021 19:07:33 GMT
What is the difference between the North East Party and the Northern Independence Party?
|
|
