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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 25, 2021 10:43:17 GMT
A needlessly petulant response. My hostility or otherwise is neither here nor there. I didn't suggest that they had a presence on the ground in places like Liverpool or anywhere else but exactly that they are purely an internet-based outfit. I have been following their twitter feed with interest and amusement over the last couple of weeks. The majority of people who are aligned with them and engage with the account are indeed students and millenials who are based in the large Northern cities and tend to have the usual predictable Twitter profiles (pronouns in bio and so on) Which suggests that they are a Twitter phenomenon, Yes - which is what I fucking said. Isn't it time you went off to start a pointless argument with someone about the voting system or lines on maps? |
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Post by bjornhattan on Mar 25, 2021 12:11:14 GMT
It's been in existence for 7 years so it seems odd if that's the case. So that's two northern nationalist left wing candidates - which doesn't appear very sensible. Unless the Northern Independence party decides to back Hilton Dawson. The North East Party is a 'mainstream' regionalist party which is broadly centre-left and has some pedigree and a few seats in the Peterlee area. The Northern Independence party strikes me as largely being an offshoot of the Momentum mob who are more a far-left outfit first and foremost but who have latched onto some kind of regionalism based on the inability of the left (as they define it (ie it doesn't include the current Labour leadership)) to win across the country as a whole. They make a lot of noise on Twitter but I suspect most of their supporters and activists are based in places like Liverpool and Manchester - I doubt they'll make much impact in Hartlepool (I don't suppose the North East party will either but they are certainly a more serious proposition) On that last point - the North East Party's base looks to be in Peterlee. That's where all their councillors are and the wider Easington constituency is where they've sometimes held their deposit at a general election. They're not going to win or even come close, but the fact they are so local might get them over the line and into deposit saving territory (and I wouldn't be surprised if they beat the Lib Dems). Agree with your assessment of the NIP - they fancy themselves as the next SNP, but outside of Twitter they're nowhere. |
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Post by syorkssocialist on Mar 25, 2021 13:39:09 GMT
It's been in existence for 7 years so it seems odd if that's the case. So that's two northern nationalist left wing candidates - which doesn't appear very sensible. Unless the Northern Independence party decides to back Hilton Dawson. They make a lot of noise on Twitter but I suspect most of their supporters and activists are based in places like Liverpool and Manchester That's a bit generous. I feel like most of the support I see for them on Twitter comes from southerners! |
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Mar 25, 2021 13:44:27 GMT
They make a lot of noise on Twitter but I suspect most of their supporters and activists are based in places like Liverpool and Manchester That's a bit generous. I feel like most of the support I see for them on Twitter comes from southerners! Do they exist outside Twitter? |
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Mar 25, 2021 13:46:04 GMT
Which suggests that they are a Twitter phenomenon, Yes - which is what I fucking said. Isn't it time you went off to start a pointless argument with someone about the voting system or lines on maps? You don't have to respond to anything I say, but if you think I will feel any less likely to say it because you swear at me, it's clear you don't know me at all 😀. |
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Mar 25, 2021 14:25:31 GMT
I think we can overstate the influence of individual MPS. Few can withstand a national or regional swing. Esther McVey was unpopular in Wirral West but I don't think another Tory candidate would necessarily have held on - though she did mobilise Labour activists to go over and help. I think that's true, but a good or bad MP (or challenger) can be the difference between just holding on or a seat being a prominent scalp. The ability to attract activists from the other party doesn't seem to me to be a big factor. I know that there's McVey, but the effect seems to be that activists turn up where the party doesn't (or shouldn't) want them while ignoring real marginals near by. It seems to be a relatively recent phenomena. I remember in 97 Labour flooding Edmonton while largely ignoring Portillo's Enfield Southgate - although in 97 Labour seemed to be bursting at the seams with young activists who actually did things so they probably did have some to spare to do things just about everywhere. The distribution of activists in 2019 by Labour/momentum also appears to have been a disaster. It was widely reported that activists were diverted to Altrincham and Sale W instead of Bury North when the latter was crying out for more help... they went on to lose by 105 votes and didn’t come any closer in ASW... the mind boggles. If they didn’t win in 97, why was it even a target in ‘19 when they were behind in polls? I find it even less likely Brady will ever lose with his national presence in light of the Tiers scandal and standing up for the area, ironically on the same side as Burnham. Unless there are some who feel his lockdown skepticism is too much. I’m not sure if there could have been any such blunders in the North East one would hope (other than general complacency)... or what next, don’t tell me they sent all their activists to Hexham?! I wouldn’t be surprised if they sent a lot to Middlesbrough South but that would make sense given the closeness of the ‘17 defeat though the ‘19 result is just embarrassing. |
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Post by La Fontaine on Mar 25, 2021 14:48:13 GMT
As I said at the time, it was clear that the threat to Blyth Valley in 2019 had been recognised, but only in the latter stages. Looking back, in 1997 I was in Corby. It became clear with some time to go that Labour was home and dry. So we decamped over to Kettering to help Phil Sawford, who scraped in to general surprise. One helper in our Corby HQ had come over from NW Norfolk , which we also won by a whisker. We learned from him that Stephen Fry had been on the phone asking for posters as he was fed up with being surrounded with Tory ones.
With a few days to go in Corby we were deluged from London with piles of purple stuff: leaflets, balloons, bunting, ponchos, umbrellas. Most of it stayed unpacked.
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Post by matureleft on Mar 25, 2021 19:13:52 GMT
As I said at the time, it was clear that the threat to Blyth Valley in 2019 had been recognised, but only in the latter stages. Looking back, in 1997 I was in Corby. It became clear with some time to go that Labour was home and dry. So we decamped over to Kettering to help Phil Sawford, who scraped in to general surprise. One helper in our Corby HQ had come over from NW Norfolk , which we also won by a whisker. We learned from him that Stephen Fry had been on the phone asking for posters as he was fed up with being surrounded with Tory ones. With a few days to go in Corby we were deluged from London with piles of purple stuff: leaflets, balloons, bunting, ponchos, umbrellas. Most of it stayed unpacked. Yup, with an instruction to take down our posters and replace them with the purple, Blair personality cult ones. We had plenty of other things to do, I'm glad to say. |
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Mar 25, 2021 21:41:30 GMT
About time for a poll on this thread I reckon. AdminSTB can you oblige? |
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Post by AdminSTB on Mar 25, 2021 22:09:35 GMT
About time for a poll on this thread I reckon. AdminSTB can you oblige? Alright. Done. |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Mar 25, 2021 23:06:07 GMT
At this stage I've gone for a Conservative gain. This is because of three things;
The new investment in the North by the government has been noticed, as well as Labour's moronic opposition to it.
The Reform Party will not make a break through here in my view. Electoral reform doesn't get voters excited, regardless of how slick the message.
The COVID bounce.
This could change as we get closer to May 6th, but this is where it stands now I think.
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Post by greenhert on Mar 26, 2021 0:07:37 GMT
On balance, this should be a Labour hold, albeit a narrow one; watch this by-election carefully. I am not expecting the Reform Party to do well at all but judging by opinion polls it is gaining more support from ex-Conservative voters than ex-Labour voters, although it will lose much of its Brexit Party support to both the Conservatives and Labour.
The Northern Independence Party, who are not in fact registered with the Electoral Commission, are all tweet and no beak. The North East Party, on the other hand, will make a considerable impact especially since they are fielding a former Labour MP (albeit one who represented a constituency nowhere near Hartlepool).
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 26, 2021 6:40:40 GMT
On balance, this should be a Labour hold, albeit a narrow one; watch this by-election carefully. I am not expecting the Reform Party to do well at all but judging by opinion polls it is gaining more support from ex-Conservative voters than ex-Labour voters, although it will lose much of its Brexit Party support to both the Conservatives and Labour. The Northern Independence Party, who are not in fact registered with the Electoral Commission, are all tweet and no beak. The North East Party, on the other hand, will make a considerable impact especially since they are fielding a former Labour MP (albeit one who represented a constituency nowhere near Hartlepool). Fair comment (I like 'all tweet and no beak'). I agree with bjornhattan that the 'considerable impact' that the North East Party is likely to make extends as far as saving their deposit and beating some of the more established parties (Lib Dems, Greens) and nothing much more spectacular than that |
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ilerda
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Post by ilerda on Mar 26, 2021 8:40:00 GMT
Reform may well be gaining more ex-Tory than ex-Labour voters as a whole across the country, but could the unique circumstances of Hartlepool make that less likely to be the case here?
Most parts of the country did not have such a strong Brexit Party performance in 2019, probably because this was being touted as a place they could actually win. That will likely have disrupted the usual balance of defecting voters, and could have convinced people who were prepared to vote Tory to vote Brexit because they thought they were best placed to win. Whereas in lots of other seats in the “red wall” the Tories were the main challengers and so there is a higher likelihood that Brexit Party voters there are in the “never Tory” camp.
Overall, the Tories may find that in Hartlepool they are able to attract more of the ex-Brexit Party vote than they could in most other parts of the country.
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Post by robert1 on Mar 26, 2021 8:46:01 GMT
Times has an extrapolation of Focaldata's northern voters polled between March 18th-25th who voted at the GE to give a by-election poll as:-
Con 36 (29 at GE)
Lab 39 (38)
LD 3 ( 4)
Grn 7 -
Ref 9 (26 Brexit)
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Mar 26, 2021 9:29:54 GMT
I will have to buy the paper to see exactly what "extrapolation" means in this poll.
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Mar 26, 2021 9:47:44 GMT
That looks very plausible.
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Post by matureleft on Mar 26, 2021 9:58:48 GMT
Hilton Dawson, Labour MP for Lancaster & Wyre from 1997-2005, will be the North East Party's candidate: Hilton was a pretty decent, left Labour MP, and he had a very strong commitment to social care and children's services. He's had some difficulties more recently, I note. He and the BASW reached an agreement on his departure back in 2013. |
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Post by peterski on Mar 26, 2021 10:37:15 GMT
If we are being honest , Labour were very lucky to hold Hartlepool in 2019 with a fairly neat split in the opposition but in 2021 circumstances are so different it is impossible to make extrapolations . The issue of Brexit has effectively passed into history ; there has been a global pandemic throwing everybody's lives up in the air and the government's performance has been 'mixed' at best. The main chance for the Tories comes from a predominant turnout from gratefully inoculated elderly voters pushing extra support their way.
However , my best guess conforms with most posters here that the citizens of Hartlepool will sigh 'meh' and offer Labour a narrow majority .
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 26, 2021 10:39:36 GMT
I will have to buy the paper to see exactly what "extrapolation" means in this poll. It can't be assumed (as this model clearly has to, in the absence of any further information) that the BxP vote will split the same way everywhere. |
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