bsjmcr
Non-Aligned
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Post by bsjmcr on Mar 23, 2021 21:57:28 GMT
..all of which is a wonderful thing, because we would have almost nothing to get excited about if the votes cast in each constituency scarcely changed in election after election. Just waiting for the day when Epsom & Ewell elects a Labour MP and Bootle elects a Tory  The idea of Esher being marginal at any point would probably have been laughed at. Despite his reputation in government, Grayling appears to have a considerable personal vote, if any locals could chip in to explain this mystery, it would be interesting. Or is the explanation more boring and is it that it is just another safeTory seat and that his government failings don’t really impact Epson? Such as the Northern rail fiasco, and of course it isn’t Kent so the lorries/ferries might not be such an issue. Other unpopular-in-government figures I’m sure did face some ‘negative incumbency’ effects (on top of demographic change of course), Esther McVey and (almost) IDS - I mean he was safer in ‘97 than he is now. To bring it back to the North East, Lavery, one of Corbyn’s few allies with a real ‘old Labour’ background, he is surely anything but a ‘metropolitan elite’ character. Elected since 2010, not 17, not a remainer, and strongly based in the NE, but had a close shave - did his union expenses troubles play a part? Or just that he was too busy parading the country and not the constituency? Surely if he was a new candidate, or indeed if he lost, he would have been ideal for Hartlepool, yet his own seat became a marginal. The mind boggles. Speaking of which, would Ronnie Campbell have held Blyth? |
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Post by finsobruce on Mar 23, 2021 21:59:53 GMT
Epsom has had some notable Labour candidates down the years including Chuter Ede (later home secretary in Attlee's goverment) , John Langdon-Davies who(among other things) founded a charity which eventually became Plan International. In the 60s he started the Jackdaw series of history 'folders' which those of us of a certain age will remember.
Edward Shackleton, son of the explorer and later MP for Preston and Preston South stood in 1945.
There was also the popular novelist Helen Keynes (no relation) and Stanley Middleton, one of those perennial candidates who stood for parliament seven times without being elected (three times in Epsom, four times in Faversham). Frank Martin Hardie (The 1950/51 candidate) wrote a book called "The Political Influence of Queen Victoria".There is a portrait in the NPG of someone called Frank Martin Hardie, but I don't know if it is him.
Blimey. Is there anything you don't know?  see last sentence!  |
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Post by yellowperil on Mar 23, 2021 22:42:56 GMT
Blimey. Is there anything you don't know? see last sentence! that's it? |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,732
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Post by CatholicLeft on Mar 23, 2021 23:05:58 GMT
Epsom has had some notable Labour candidates down the years including Chuter Ede (later home secretary in Attlee's goverment) , John Langdon-Davies who(among other things) founded a charity which eventually became Plan International. In the 60s he started the Jackdaw series of history 'folders' which those of us of a certain age will remember.
Edward Shackleton, son of the explorer and later MP for Preston and Preston South stood in 1945.
There was also the popular novelist Helen Keynes (no relation) and Stanley Middleton, one of those perennial candidates who stood for parliament seven times without being elected (three times in Epsom, four times in Faversham). Frank Martin Hardie (The 1950/51 candidate) wrote a book called "The Political Influence of Queen Victoria".There is a portrait in the NPG of someone called Frank Martin Hardie, but I don't know if it is him.
Blimey. Is there anything you don't know? Where I have put the key to the small safe. (Seriously, if you know, could you let me know?) |
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Post by greenchristian on Mar 23, 2021 23:29:16 GMT
Blimey. Is there anything you don't know? Where I have put the key to the small safe. (Seriously, if you know, could you let me know?) Have you looked inside the small safe? |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,732
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Post by CatholicLeft on Mar 23, 2021 23:31:34 GMT
Where I have put the key to the small safe. (Seriously, if you know, could you let me know?) Have you looked inside the small safe? Which begs the next question.... |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,000
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 24, 2021 11:46:34 GMT
..all of which is a wonderful thing, because we would have almost nothing to get excited about if the votes cast in each constituency scarcely changed in election after election. Just waiting for the day when Epsom & Ewell elects a Labour MP and Bootle elects a Tory Bootle has actually had a Tory MP, and in the lifetime of at least two regulars here. (and there was another in that category until yesterday) |
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Post by carlton43 on Mar 24, 2021 12:34:43 GMT
..all of which is a wonderful thing, because we would have almost nothing to get excited about if the votes cast in each constituency scarcely changed in election after election. Just waiting for the day when Epsom & Ewell elects a Labour MP and Bootle elects a Tory Bootle has actually had a Tory MP, and in the lifetime of at least two regulars here. (and there was another in that category until yesterday) That post has not made us feel better I can assure you. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Mar 24, 2021 21:42:03 GMT
The next time Labour win will include both some of those (F&BS definitely, A&SW and WE&S probably, Rushcliffe possibly) as well as Blyth Valley, Blackpool South and Workington. A winning coalition for Labour needs to include post-industrial heartland, metropolitan an university seats and socially mixed or average marginals Are you of "let's recreate Labour's 2005 coalition" school of thought when the economic and social circumstances have completely changed Name one election Labour have won without their heartland seats, a decent number of metropolitan liberal seats and some of the key mixed/average marginals |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,847
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Post by right on Mar 25, 2021 8:53:39 GMT
..all of which is a wonderful thing, because we would have almost nothing to get excited about if the votes cast in each constituency scarcely changed in election after election. Just waiting for the day when Epsom & Ewell elects a Labour MP and Bootle elects a Tory The idea of Esher being marginal at any point would probably have been laughed at. Despite his reputation in government, Grayling appears to have a considerable personal vote, if any locals could chip in to explain this mystery, it would be interesting. Or is the explanation more boring and is it that it is just another safeTory seat and that his government failings don’t really impact Epson? Such as the Northern rail fiasco, and of course it isn’t Kent so the lorries/ferries might not be such an issue. Other unpopular-in-government figures I’m sure did face some ‘negative incumbency’ effects (on top of demographic change of course), Esther McVey and (almost) IDS - I mean he was safer in ‘97 than he is now. To bring it back to the North East, Lavery, one of Corbyn’s few allies with a real ‘old Labour’ background, he is surely anything but a ‘metropolitan elite’ character. Elected since 2010, not 17, not a remainer, and strongly based in the NE, but had a close shave - did his union expenses troubles play a part? Or just that he was too busy parading the country and not the constituency? Surely if he was a new candidate, or indeed if he lost, he would have been ideal for Hartlepool, yet his own seat became a marginal. The mind boggles. Speaking of which, would Ronnie Campbell have held Blyth? IDS's seat, like most of the outer East London seats has been trending Labour over the last quarter of a century seemingly due to a demographic, indeed ethnic, shift. IDS certainly did attract a lot of Labour activists to post him and this almost certainly boosted the Labour turnout but at least twenty years ago he had a solid reputation as a good local MP, and these reputations don't tend to dim until the MP goes doddery and my impression from people who campaigned in Chingford in 2019 was that he still had that reputation. |
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Post by Merseymike on Mar 25, 2021 8:58:55 GMT
The idea of Esher being marginal at any point would probably have been laughed at. Despite his reputation in government, Grayling appears to have a considerable personal vote, if any locals could chip in to explain this mystery, it would be interesting. Or is the explanation more boring and is it that it is just another safeTory seat and that his government failings don’t really impact Epson? Such as the Northern rail fiasco, and of course it isn’t Kent so the lorries/ferries might not be such an issue. Other unpopular-in-government figures I’m sure did face some ‘negative incumbency’ effects (on top of demographic change of course), Esther McVey and (almost) IDS - I mean he was safer in ‘97 than he is now. To bring it back to the North East, Lavery, one of Corbyn’s few allies with a real ‘old Labour’ background, he is surely anything but a ‘metropolitan elite’ character. Elected since 2010, not 17, not a remainer, and strongly based in the NE, but had a close shave - did his union expenses troubles play a part? Or just that he was too busy parading the country and not the constituency? Surely if he was a new candidate, or indeed if he lost, he would have been ideal for Hartlepool, yet his own seat became a marginal. The mind boggles. Speaking of which, would Ronnie Campbell have held Blyth? IDS's seat, like most of the outer East London seats has been trending Labour over the last quarter of a century seemingly due to a demographic, indeed ethnic, shift. IDS certainly did attract a lot of Labour activists to post him and this almost certainly boosted the Labour turnout but at least twenty years ago he had a solid reputation as a good local MP, and these reputations don't tend to dim until the MP goes doddery and my impression from people who campaigned in Chingford in 2019 was that he still had that reputation. I think we can overstate the influence of individual MPS. Few can withstand a national or regional swing. Esther McVey was unpopular in Wirral West but I don't think another Tory candidate would necessarily have held on - though she did mobilise Labour activists to go over and help. |
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Post by greenhert on Mar 25, 2021 9:34:17 GMT
Hilton Dawson, Labour MP for Lancaster & Wyre from 1997-2005, will be the North East Party's candidate:
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,847
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Post by right on Mar 25, 2021 9:40:25 GMT
IDS's seat, like most of the outer East London seats has been trending Labour over the last quarter of a century seemingly due to a demographic, indeed ethnic, shift. IDS certainly did attract a lot of Labour activists to post him and this almost certainly boosted the Labour turnout but at least twenty years ago he had a solid reputation as a good local MP, and these reputations don't tend to dim until the MP goes doddery and my impression from people who campaigned in Chingford in 2019 was that he still had that reputation. I think we can overstate the influence of individual MPS. Few can withstand a national or regional swing. Esther McVey was unpopular in Wirral West but I don't think another Tory candidate would necessarily have held on - though she did mobilise Labour activists to go over and help. I think that's true, but a good or bad MP (or challenger) can be the difference between just holding on or a seat being a prominent scalp. The ability to attract activists from the other party doesn't seem to me to be a big factor. I know that there's McVey, but the effect seems to be that activists turn up where the party doesn't (or shouldn't) want them while ignoring real marginals near by. It seems to be a relatively recent phenomena. I remember in 97 Labour flooding Edmonton while largely ignoring Portillo's Enfield Southgate - although in 97 Labour seemed to be bursting at the seams with young activists who actually did things so they probably did have some to spare to do things just about everywhere. |
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Post by Merseymike on Mar 25, 2021 9:53:09 GMT
The north-east seats Labour lost were much more down to local swings than the ideology or quality of the local MPS though.
Are there any seats Labour held because of the reputation of the local MP? Looking at the list Mike Amesbury did well to hold Weaver Vale which has some very Tory elements, and he is a diligent local MP, who is generally liked within the party, itself an achievement these days.
Activists go to seats they can get to easily. It's easier for Liverpool activists to nip over to the Wirral than head up to Southport, and there are few other marginals within after work easy travelling distance.
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ilerda
Conservative
Posts: 1,100
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Post by ilerda on Mar 25, 2021 9:59:02 GMT
Hilton Dawson, Labour MP for Lancaster & Wyre from 1997-2005, will be the North East Party's candidate: I'm pretty sure I read somewhere that the North East Party isn't actually registered with the EC. Unless that changes between now and close of nominations, surely he'll just be standing as an independent? Edit: my mistake. That's the Northern Independence Party that isn't registered. God help the voters if this is how confusing things are going to be. |
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Post by Merseymike on Mar 25, 2021 10:02:59 GMT
It's been in existence for 7 years so it seems odd if that's the case.
So that's two northern nationalist left wing candidates - which doesn't appear very sensible. Unless the Northern Independence party decides to back Hilton Dawson.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 25, 2021 10:15:06 GMT
It's been in existence for 7 years so it seems odd if that's the case. So that's two northern nationalist left wing candidates - which doesn't appear very sensible. Unless the Northern Independence party decides to back Hilton Dawson. The North East Party is a 'mainstream' regionalist party which is broadly centre-left and has some pedigree and a few seats in the Peterlee area. The Northern Independence party strikes me as largely being an offshoot of the Momentum mob who are more a far-left outfit first and foremost but who have latched onto some kind of regionalism based on the inability of the left (as they define it (ie it doesn't include the current Labour leadership)) to win across the country as a whole. They make a lot of noise on Twitter but I suspect most of their supporters and activists are based in places like Liverpool and Manchester - I doubt they'll make much impact in Hartlepool (I don't suppose the North East party will either but they are certainly a more serious proposition) |
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Post by Merseymike on Mar 25, 2021 10:20:50 GMT
What "strikes you" given your hostility to the left is very unlikely to be accurate.
I am not aware of any presence of the Northern Independence party in Liverpool - it does appear to be a largely internet-based activity at the moment.
There's not a great deal of point in starting new parties given the current electoral system, so activity would be better spent on achieving change with regard to that - which does mean Labour having to realise that it can't win.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 25, 2021 10:30:51 GMT
What "strikes you" given your hostility to the left is very unlikely to be accurate. I am not aware of any presence of the Northern Independence party in Liverpool - it does appear to be a largely internet-based activity at the moment. There's not a great deal of point in starting new parties given the current electoral system, so activity would be better spent on achieving change with regard to that - which does mean Labour having to realise that it can't win. A needlessly petulant response. My hostility or otherwise is neither here nor there. I didn't suggest that they had a presence on the ground in places like Liverpool or anywhere else but exactly that they are purely an internet-based outfit. I have been following their twitter feed with interest and amusement over the last couple of weeks. The majority of people who are aligned with them and engage with the account are indeed students and millenials who are based in the large Northern cities and tend to have the usual predictable Twitter profiles (pronouns in bio and so on) |
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Post by Merseymike on Mar 25, 2021 10:35:52 GMT
What "strikes you" given your hostility to the left is very unlikely to be accurate. I am not aware of any presence of the Northern Independence party in Liverpool - it does appear to be a largely internet-based activity at the moment. There's not a great deal of point in starting new parties given the current electoral system, so activity would be better spent on achieving change with regard to that - which does mean Labour having to realise that it can't win. A needlessly petulant response. My hostility or otherwise is neither here nor there. I didn't suggest that they had a presence on the ground in places like Liverpool or anywhere else but exactly that they are purely an internet-based outfit. I have been following their twitter feed with interest and amusement over the last couple of weeks. The majority of people who are aligned with them and engage with the account are indeed students and millenials who are based in the large Northern cities and tend to have the usual predictable Twitter profiles (pronouns in bio and so on) Which suggests that they are a Twitter phenomenon, so not real at all. If they ever emerge out of Twitter we shall no doubt see who is actually involved but they have no presence here at all, and I find the willingness of the right to attach Momentum labels as mildly amusing. The presence of Momentum was very patchy indeed and in many places didn't really exist as an active local organisation. |
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