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Post by curiousliberal on Mar 22, 2021 22:52:15 GMT
Possible, though I doubt it. Not least because the Tories will surely want the new Westminster boundaries in place first. When the FTPA out of the way we’ll be back to the (good?!) old days of a Prime Minister choosing the most advantageous date. One factor will be the boundary changes but much larger ones will be the shape and direction of the economy, the state of the opposition and major events with political implications (including any substantial return of the virus). After an initial boost following the lifting of lockdown the economy will be shaky. If we have a reasonably clear winter 2021/2 I’d not be amazed by a spring 2022 election, called before taxes start biting and the economy slows down again. But there are lots of ifs and buts before then. I'd be pretty surprised. The government will be especially apprehensive of unexpected developments after the last few years, and the May premiership will haunt anyone with a comfortable majority considering calling an election. They can probably delay austerity if political needs must, so I expect the earliest they'd want an election is in Q1 of 2024. |
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Post by andrewteale on Mar 23, 2021 7:51:29 GMT
When the FTPA out of the way we’ll be back to the (good?!) old days of a Prime Minister choosing the most advantageous date. One factor will be the boundary changes but much larger ones will be the shape and direction of the economy, the state of the opposition and major events with political implications (including any substantial return of the virus). After an initial boost following the lifting of lockdown the economy will be shaky. If we have a reasonably clear winter 2021/2 I’d not be amazed by a spring 2022 election, called before taxes start biting and the economy slows down again. But there are lots of ifs and buts before then. I'd be pretty surprised. The government will be especially apprehensive of unexpected developments after the last few years, and the May premiership will haunt anyone with a comfortable majority considering calling an election. They can probably delay austerity if political needs must, so I expect the earliest they'd want an election is in Q1 of 2024. It's worth remembering here that the current Parliament was elected for a term explicitly ending in May 2024. For the reasons you give I'd be surprised if the next general election is on any other date. |
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Post by matureleft on Mar 23, 2021 8:50:28 GMT
When the FTPA out of the way we’ll be back to the (good?!) old days of a Prime Minister choosing the most advantageous date. One factor will be the boundary changes but much larger ones will be the shape and direction of the economy, the state of the opposition and major events with political implications (including any substantial return of the virus). After an initial boost following the lifting of lockdown the economy will be shaky. If we have a reasonably clear winter 2021/2 I’d not be amazed by a spring 2022 election, called before taxes start biting and the economy slows down again. But there are lots of ifs and buts before then. I'd be pretty surprised. The government will be especially apprehensive of unexpected developments after the last few years, and the May premiership will haunt anyone with a comfortable majority considering calling an election. They can probably delay austerity if political needs must, so I expect the earliest they'd want an election is in Q1 of 2024. I rather hope that you are right, but there have been stirrings. The problem with the 2024 timetable is that that takes the UK comfortably beyond the initial virus recovery (and the impact of Biden's boost to the US economy) and well into Sunak's fiscal retrenchment and the likely impact of Brexit - an initial reduction in growth, some shakeout and a lasting, slightly smaller GDP. A renewed mandate in the sunnier times next year would take them through to an election in 2026 or 2027 when, if one takes a rosier Brexit view, new markets will be opened and adjustments will be well under way.
It's never too hard for a Prime Minister to think of reasons for an early election (and the FTPA wasn't much of an impediment beyond the coalition, other than spinning the process out longer). Of course any election call is a gamble (as 2017 showed, even when the deck appears stacked).
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Post by hullenedge on Mar 23, 2021 9:47:44 GMT
They were a very small minority though. The vast majority of Labour MPs were abolitionist and I honestly can't see anyone who wanted to reintroduce it being selected as a Labour candidate now. In 1966 Duncan Sandys tried to introduce a ten-minute rule Bill to restore capital punishment, and 15 Labour MPs backed him. That was the last occasion on which the number of Labour MPs supporting capital punishment in a division exceeded three. The Bill only backed restoration for the murder of police and prison officers (assume reaction to the shooting of the three coppers). Labour members for West Stirlingshire, Bassetlaw, Leigh, Barrow, Batley & Morley, Mansfield, Dundee W, Notingham C, Hammersmith N, Erith & Crayford, Manchester Ardwick, West Ham N, Carlisle, Westhoughton, Blaydon voted in favour plus the Liberal Member for Ross & Cromarty. Some surprising Tory members in favour...Nigel Fisher etc. |
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Mar 23, 2021 10:39:12 GMT
I'd be pretty surprised. The government will be especially apprehensive of unexpected developments after the last few years, and the May premiership will haunt anyone with a comfortable majority considering calling an election. They can probably delay austerity if political needs must, so I expect the earliest they'd want an election is in Q1 of 2024. It's worth remembering here that the current Parliament was elected for a term explicitly ending in May 2024. For the reasons you give I'd be surprised if the next general election is on any other date. Though I think with the repeal Bill explicitly allowing for maximum 5 years that would imply going up to December 2024 though in practice I think the latest date would still be May 2024. Unless the full 5 years rules would only start from the next parliament. |
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Post by justin124 on Mar 23, 2021 10:50:17 GMT
It's worth remembering here that the current Parliament was elected for a term explicitly ending in May 2024. For the reasons you give I'd be surprised if the next general election is on any other date. Though I think with the repeal Bill explicitly allowing for maximum 5 years that would imply going up to December 2024 though in practice I think the latest date would still be May 2024. Unless the full 5 years rules would only start from the next parliament. That might well be correct - though October 2024 could be another option. Autumn elections have been favoured in the past - having been held in 1931 - 1935 - 1951 - 1959 - 1964 - and 1974.In practical terms, it would probably be the latest likely option but would only be chosen if the polling looks really ominous for the Tories. |
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Mar 23, 2021 11:05:35 GMT
Though I think with the repeal Bill explicitly allowing for maximum 5 years that would imply going up to December 2024 though in practice I think the latest date would still be May 2024. Unless the full 5 years rules would only start from the next parliament. That might well be correct - though October 2024 could be another option. Autumn elections have been favoured in the past - having been held in 1931 - 1935 - 1951 - 1959 - 1964 - and 1974.In practical terms, it would probably be the latest likely option but would only be chosen if the polling looks really ominous for the Tories. Things may go wrong for them but I doubt it so spring 2024 with latest date of May 2024 seems likely or a good window as they could argue 4 years has passed since the last one. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 23, 2021 12:16:29 GMT
Let's not forget here that the Tories *already have an 80 seat majority*.
Going to the polls after just (say) two and a half years in those circumstances - especially with no change of PM - would need a pretty convincing reason IMO. Even though it went wrong for her in 2017, May's "I need a bigger mandate to push a Brexit deal through" wasn't such a bad one in itself.
(and the fact Labour already had a decent majority was one reason Brown ultimately didn't go to the polls in 2007, it makes the margins for error so much bigger)
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Mar 23, 2021 12:25:11 GMT
Let's not forget here that the Tories *already have an 80 seat majority*. Going to the polls after just (say) two and a half years in those circumstances - especially with no change of PM - would need a pretty convincing reason IMO. Even though it went wrong for her in 2017, May's "I need a bigger mandate to push a Brexit deal through" wasn't such a bad one in itself. (and the fact Labour already had a decent majority was one reason Brown ultimately didn't go to the polls in 2007, it makes the margins for error so much bigger) Yes you'd have to go back to 1923 for an election with a govt with a comfortable majority that was called before the 4th calendar year since the last one |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Mar 23, 2021 13:27:48 GMT
Let's not forget here that the Tories *already have an 80 seat majority*. Going to the polls after just (say) two and a half years in those circumstances - especially with no change of PM - would need a pretty convincing reason IMO. Even though it went wrong for her in 2017, May's "I need a bigger mandate to push a Brexit deal through" wasn't such a bad one in itself. (and the fact Labour already had a decent majority was one reason Brown ultimately didn't go to the polls in 2007, it makes the margins for error so much bigger) Yes you'd have to go back to 1923 for an election with a govt with a comfortable majority that was called before the 4th calendar year since the last one I'll throw in another potential factor. Johnson gets tired of touring the country with his dressing-up box and stands down. New Leader "who nobody elected" [yes, I know] seeks a mandate. |
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Mar 23, 2021 13:32:31 GMT
Yes you'd have to go back to 1923 for an election with a govt with a comfortable majority that was called before the 4th calendar year since the last one I'll throw in another potential factor. Johnson gets tired of touring the country with his dressing-up box and stands down. New Leader "who nobody elected" [yes, I know] seeks a mandate. Anthony Eden was perhaps the last to take that plunge but the parliament was getting on and he was confident of winning |
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Post by elinorhelyn on Mar 23, 2021 14:00:15 GMT
I suspect the next time Labour win, they'll do it by winning increasingly unlikely seats in metropolitan areas and on the periphery of large cities. Cities of London and Westminster, Filton and Bradley Stoke, Altrincham and Sale West, Wimbledon, Rushcliffe, Worthing East and Shoreham, and so on. The next time Labour win will include both some of those (F&BS definitely, A&SW and WE&S probably, Rushcliffe possibly) as well as Blyth Valley, Blackpool South and Workington. A winning coalition for Labour needs to include post-industrial heartland, metropolitan an university seats and socially mixed or average marginals Are you of "let's recreate Labour's 2005 coalition" school of thought when the economic and social circumstances have completely changed |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 23, 2021 14:16:15 GMT
Of course *some* of the seats Labour won in 2005 are gone for the foreseeable future if not forever.
Those don't include any that @europeanlefty mentioned, however.
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Post by heslingtonian on Mar 23, 2021 18:17:13 GMT
Of course *some* of the seats Labour won in 2005 are gone for the foreseeable future if not forever. Those don't include any that @europeanlefty mentioned, however. Ever is a long time but I don't see Labour winning the following or their successor seats for several decades in the future: Amber Valley Brigg & Goole Burton Cannock Chase Cleethorpes Elmet & Rothwell Great Yarmouth NW Leicestershire Redditch Selby & Ainsty Sherwood South Derbyshire Staffordshire Moorlands Tamworth Waveney |
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Post by heslingtonian on Mar 23, 2021 18:18:55 GMT
Of course *some* of the seats Labour won in 2005 are gone for the foreseeable future if not forever. Those don't include any that @europeanlefty mentioned, however. Ever is a long time but I don't see Labour winning the following or their successor seats for several decades in the future: Amber Valley Brigg & Goole Burton Cannock Chase Cleethorpes Elmet & Rothwell Great Yarmouth NW Leicestershire Redditch Selby & Ainsty Sherwood South Derbyshire Staffordshire Moorlands Tamworth Waveney So not that many that it's inconceivable that they can't be regained in the right circumstances in my opinion but others may think differently. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Mar 23, 2021 19:21:45 GMT
It's fascinating how safe seats drift and how impregnable bastions that you couldn't touch suddenly fall like dominoes. And how parties emerge from the ether or sink like stones. Mind you, that's why we are all here.
And not just under this system either. Can you imagine going back to Henin-Beaumont in France, or Milan, or Piraeus in 1985 and telling them that their socialist parties would essentially not exist as credible forces within two to three decades? Or telling a Swiss a year ago that one of the parties that has ruled since the Fifties would be forced to merge to survive in 2021? Or telling Helmut Kohl that Baden-Württemberg was going to be a fortress of the Greens? It would all seem so improbably bizarre.
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Post by manchesterman on Mar 23, 2021 20:48:24 GMT
..all of which is a wonderful thing, because we would have almost nothing to get excited about if the votes cast in each constituency scarcely changed in election after election. Just waiting for the day when Epsom & Ewell elects a Labour MP and Bootle elects a Tory  |
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Post by finsobruce on Mar 23, 2021 21:23:30 GMT
..all of which is a wonderful thing, because we would have almost nothing to get excited about if the votes cast in each constituency scarcely changed in election after election. Just waiting for the day when Epsom & Ewell elects a Labour MP and Bootle elects a Tory Epsom has had some notable Labour candidates down the years including Chuter Ede (later home secretary in Attlee's goverment) , John Langdon-Davies who(among other things) founded a charity which eventually became Plan International. In the 60s he started the Jackdaw series of history 'folders' which those of us of a certain age will remember.
Edward Shackleton, son of the explorer and later MP for Preston and Preston South stood in 1945.
There was also the popular novelist Helen Keynes (no relation) and Stanley Middleton, one of those perennial candidates who stood for parliament seven times without being elected (three times in Epsom, four times in Faversham). Frank Martin Hardie (The 1950/51 candidate) wrote a book called "The Political Influence of Queen Victoria".There is a portrait in the NPG of someone called Frank Martin Hardie, but I don't know if it is him.
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Post by islington on Mar 23, 2021 21:51:53 GMT
..all of which is a wonderful thing, because we would have almost nothing to get excited about if the votes cast in each constituency scarcely changed in election after election. Just waiting for the day when Epsom & Ewell elects a Labour MP and Bootle elects a Tory Or when Canterbury elects a Labour MP and Bolsover a Tory. Oh, wait ... |
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Post by froome on Mar 23, 2021 21:53:11 GMT
..all of which is a wonderful thing, because we would have almost nothing to get excited about if the votes cast in each constituency scarcely changed in election after election. Just waiting for the day when Epsom & Ewell elects a Labour MP and Bootle elects a Tory Epsom has had some notable Labour candidates down the years including Chuter Ede (later home secretary in Attlee's goverment) , John Langdon-Davies who(among other things) founded a charity which eventually became Plan International. In the 60s he started the Jackdaw series of history 'folders' which those of us of a certain age will remember.
Edward Shackleton, son of the explorer and later MP for Preston and Preston South stood in 1945.
There was also the popular novelist Helen Keynes (no relation) and Stanley Middleton, one of those perennial candidates who stood for parliament seven times without being elected (three times in Epsom, four times in Faversham). Frank Martin Hardie (The 1950/51 candidate) wrote a book called "The Political Influence of Queen Victoria".There is a portrait in the NPG of someone called Frank Martin Hardie, but I don't know if it is him.
Blimey. Is there anything you don't know?  |
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