|
|
Post by markgoodair on Mar 22, 2013 9:26:03 GMT
ISLINGTON Junction Lab 1,343 GP 381 L Dem 276 C 120 BNP 31 SPGB 18 Lab 61.9% +23.4% Green 17.6% +6.0% Lib Dem 12.7% -27.4% Con 5.5% -4.4% BNP 1.4% +1.4% SPGB 0.8% +0.8% |
|
|
|
Post by markgoodair on Mar 22, 2013 9:31:52 GMT
Adeyfield West, Hemel Hemstead by-election full result: LibDem 363, Lab 278, Con 229, UKIP 193,ED 51. Lib Dems go from 3rd to 1st! www.twitter.com/sarabedfordLib Dem 32.6% +18.0% Lab 25.0% -17.5% Con 20.6% -22.3% UKIP 17.3% +17.3% ED 4.6% +4.6% |
|
|
|
Post by middleenglander on Mar 22, 2013 9:37:20 GMT
North Dorset, The Stours
Conservative 207 - 80.2%
Labour 51 - 19.8%
|
|
|
|
Post by listener on Mar 22, 2013 10:46:42 GMT
I think The Stours is the first by-election won by the Conservatives since Ross-on-Wye West on 24 January.
|
|
|
|
Post by markgoodair on Mar 22, 2013 10:50:33 GMT
Lodbourne full result LD 187 Con 134 Lab 69 LIB DEM 47.9% +0.1% CON 34.4% -17.8% LAB 17.7% +17.7% |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 22, 2013 11:43:20 GMT
I think The Stours is the first by-election won by the Conservatives since Ross-on-Wye West on 24 January. If they lost that they might as well pack up and go home. |
|
maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,306 
|
Post by maxque on Mar 22, 2013 11:56:01 GMT
Well, 20% is a good result for Labour, there, really.
|
|
|
|
Post by paulypaul on Mar 22, 2013 11:56:38 GMT
|
|
mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 23,714
|
Post by mboy on Mar 22, 2013 14:10:29 GMT
LIB DEM 47.9% +0.1% CON 34.4% -17.8% LAB 17.7% +17.7% Labour entry splits the right-wing vote?  |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 22, 2013 15:24:22 GMT
think the last lot of results certainly shows UNS can not be applied in 2015. Has anyone got the voting % of Con vs LD seats as against Lab vs LD and Lab vs con seats ?
In other words for these type of seats (ignoring SNP and PC for a bit) what is the average vote share for 1st and 2nd ?
|
|
ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
Posts: 2,126
Member is Online
|
Post by ColinJ on Mar 22, 2013 20:42:02 GMT
From a Labour perspective the worst result is undoubtedly the one in Dacorum - I know it's an area where we were utterly mauled in the general election but we should at least be making some progress. This isn't the first by-election to be lost by Labour in Hemel in recent times. The local party has perhaps lost the ability to campaign effectively, our spy on the ground confirmed that the only number taker they saw on polling day was a Lib Dem! |
|
|
|
Post by middleenglander on Mar 23, 2013 13:43:49 GMT
Dacorum BC, Adeyfield West - Lib Dem gain from Labour in a "split" ward | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | since March 2010 | since 2007 "top" | since 2007 "average" | | Lib Dems | 363 | 32.6% | +18.1% | +18.0% | +8.1% | +16.3% | +16.8% | | Labour | 278 | 25.0% | -17.5% | -17.6% | -4.0% | -17.3% | -17.7% | | Conservatives | 229 | 20.6% | -22.4% | -22.3% | -12.2% | -20.8% | -20.8% | | UKIP | 193 | 17.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | English Dems | 51 | 4.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | BNP | | | | | -13.7% | | | | Total votes | 1,114 | | -325 | -301 | -366 | -112 | -80 |
Swing Labour to Lib Dem ~18% since 2011, 6% since March 2010 and ~17% since 2007 - swing Conservative to Lib Dem #20% since 2011, 10% since March 2010 and ~19% since 2007 Havering LB, Gooshays - UKIP gain from Conservative in a "split" ward | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2010 "top" | since 2010 "average" | since March 2008 | since 2006 "top" | since 2006 "average" | | UKIP | 831 | 39.0% | +24.6% | +23.6% | +35.9% | +28.2% | +28.7% | | Labour | 569 | 26.7% | -1.8% | -0.7% | -5.8% | +0.7% | +0.8% | | Conservatives | 280 | 13.1% | -12.6% | -13.1% | -8.4% | -14.0% | -14.1% | | HWHP RA | 227 | 10.6% | +1.2% | +2.4% | from nowhere | +4.9% | +5.3% | | BNP | 202 | 9.5% | -12.5% | -13.3% | -28.5% | -18.5% | -19.5% | | RA of London | 24 | 1.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Lib Dems | | | | | -2.3% | | | | Independents | | | | | -2.7% | -2.5% | -2.7% | | Total votes | 2,133 | | -4,423 | -4,005 | -146 | -1,396 | -1,265 |
Interestingly (arithmetically) that the Conservative +UKIP + BNP share = = 61.6% in the by-election, 62.1% 2010 "top", 64.4% 2010 "average", 63.0% in March 2008 by-election, 65.9% 2006 "top" and 66.3% in 2006 "average". Islington LB, Junction - Labour gain from Lib Dem sitting as an Independent in a "split" ward | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2010 "top" | since 2010 "average" | since 2006 "top" | since 2006 "average" | | Labour | 1,343 | 61.9% | +21.5% | +23.5% | +28.8% | +27.0% | | Greens | 381 | 17.6% | +5.3% | +6.0% | +4.0% | +5.2% | | Lib Dems | 276 | 12.7% | -25.0% | -27.4% | -23.2% | -23.4% | | Conservatives | 120 | 5.5% | -4.1% | -4.3% | -2.6% | -2.2% | | BNP | 31 | 1.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | SWP (GB) | 18 | 0.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independents | | | | | -9.3% | -8.9% | | Total votes | 2,169 | | -3,620 | -3,131 | -659 | -510 |
Swing Lib Dems to Labour 23% on "top" share and 25% on "average" share since 2010 and 25% / 26% since 2006. Islington LB, St Georges - Labour hold in a "split" ward | Party | 2013 vote | 2013 share | since 2010 "top" | since 2010 "average" | since 2006 "top" | since 2006 "average" | | Labour | 1,698 | 71.3% | +38.5% | +37.3% | +34.8% | +34.6% | | Lib Dems | 371 | 15.6% | -27.9% | -26.7% | -24.6% | -23.5% | | Greens | 206 | 8.6% | -5.5% | -5.5% | -7.6% | -7.9% | | Conservative | 87 | 3.7% | -6.0% | -6.0% | -3.5% | -3.9% | | BNP | 20 | 0.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Total votes | 2,382 | | -3,536 | -3,072 | -562 | -329 |
Swing Lib Dems to Labour 33% "top" and 32% "average" since 2010 and 29% since 2006. North Dorset DC, Lodbourne - Lib Dem regain seat from Conservatives lost in 2011 | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2011 | since 2007 | | Lib Dems | 187 | 47.9% | +0.1% | -23.7% | | Conservatives | 134 | 34.4% | -17.8% | +6.0% | | Labour | 69 | 17.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Total votes | 390 | | -227 | -219 |
Swing Conservatives to Lib Dems 9% since 2011 but Lib Dems to Conservatives 15% since 2007 North Dorset DC, The Stours - Conservatives hold | Party | 2013 vote | 2013 share | since 2011 | since 2007 | | Conservatives | 207 | 80.2% | +13.1% | +14.0% | | Labour | 51 | 19.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Lib Dems | | | -32.8% | -33.8% | | Total vote | 258 | | -519 | -303 |
Conservatives share 10% or more higher than in any election since 2003 although relative turnout only 33% compared to 2011.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 23, 2013 17:47:26 GMT
|
|
Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
|
Post by Tony Otim on Mar 23, 2013 18:00:02 GMT
Looking at the Islington results, I'd guess that Labour campaigned much harder in St George's as they thought it would be closer. As it was they achieved excellent results in both wards. I'd also speculate that the Greens maybe concentrated on Junction as they saw they had a chance for second there. I've got to admit that I did dismiss their claims that they were going to get 2nd there as unlikely.
With regard to Havering, there was an active Hope not Hate campaign against the BNP, whilst the BNP seemed to be fighting a very nasty campaign against Labour, all of which might have helped UKIP come through with a candidate who gained profile from the mayaoral campaign. Great result for them.
|
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 23, 2013 18:03:30 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by Anonyman on Mar 23, 2013 18:45:08 GMT
As an Adeyfield West resident, I'm not sure how representative the result was of overall Lib Dem strength round these parts. Ron Tindall is already pretty well-known as a county councillor due to the huge amount of leaflets he puts out, and the Conservative candidate seemed a bit weaker than usual (after running a leaflet which talked at length about his appearance in a Heinz advert and his candidacy for UKIP in 2005 against the sitting Conservative MP, the mailouts seemed to shift to trying to mention him as little as possible).
|
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 23, 2013 19:26:51 GMT
So how do you rate Ron Tindall's chances of holding St Pauls in May? Pretty good I should have thought
|
|
dizz
Labour
Posts: 1,088
Member is Online
|
Post by dizz on Mar 23, 2013 19:43:26 GMT
Is Mark S going to continue his tradition of Mendip predictions?  |
|
|
|
Post by listener on Mar 23, 2013 20:28:41 GMT
The result in the Upton Park ward of Upton-by-Chester:
Lib Dem 132, Con 96, Lab 70
Lib Dem gain from Con
(The result on 5 May 2011 (two seats) was Con 278/204, Lab 153)
|
|
|
|
Post by listener on Mar 23, 2013 20:36:19 GMT
Here is a summary of the parish results from Thursday:
Brixham Town Council (St. Mary’s with Summercombe ward) – Ind hold 2 seats against opposition from BRATS (Brixham Residents against Tesco Superstore)
New council: Ind 9, Con 1, Lab 1, BRATS 1
Chorleywood Parish Council (Chenies ward) (Three Rivers, Hertfordshire) – Lib Dem gain from Ind
New council: Lib Dem 10, Con 7
Maghull Town Council (Maghull North ward) (Sefton, Merseyside) – Lab hold 3
New council: Lab 13, Lib Dem 3
Shepton Mallet Town Council (Shepton West ward) (Mendip, Somerset) –Lab gain 1 from Lib Dem and 1 from Ind (both undefended)
New council: Con 7, Lib Dem 4, Lab 3, Independent 2
(see my report on page 3 above for more details)
Upton-by-Chester and District Parish Council (Upton Park ward) –
Lib Dem gain from Con
New council: Con 12, Lab 2, Ind 1, Lib Dem 1
Perton Parish Council (Perton East ward) (South Staffordshire)
Ind gain from Con
New council: Con 8, Perton Independent 3, Independent 3, Unopposed 1
|
|
