Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 19, 2021 15:04:34 GMT
Not a total collapse but a big drop nonetheless. Bit of a crap night and a reality check for us. Well done to the Conservative candidate. So far looks like a hardening of the Unionist determination to vote for the strongest anti-SNP candidate. That may prove good news for the non-SNP candidates defending in May, and also for challengers in seats that are within reach, notably the marginals in the NE and Perthshire where the Tories are the obvious challengers, and possibly one or two Central Belt seats for Labour. No wonder John Swinney is pushing his crowd-funder! Yes, but at Holyrood level at lot of that vote has already been squeezed hard in some of those seats. Like in Perthshire North, there's surely only a little bit lower that the Labour and Lib Dem vote can go now. |
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Mar 19, 2021 15:09:26 GMT
SNP won Baillieston
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Post by No Offence Alan on Mar 19, 2021 15:18:57 GMT
So far looks like a hardening of the Unionist determination to vote for the strongest anti-SNP candidate. That may prove good news for the non-SNP candidates defending in May, and also for challengers in seats that are within reach, notably the marginals in the NE and Perthshire where the Tories are the obvious challengers, and possibly one or two Central Belt seats for Labour. No wonder John Swinney is pushing his crowd-funder! Yes, but at Holyrood level at lot of that vote has already been squeezed hard in some of those seats. Like in Perthshire North, there's surely only a little bit lower that the Labour and Lib Dem vote can go now. At Holyrood, I would expect a large number of yesterday's Conservative voters to vote for Jackie Baillie. |
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johnloony
Conservative
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Post by johnloony on Mar 19, 2021 15:19:59 GMT
(first round) Isle of Bute Kim FINDLAY (SNP) 658 Liz MCCABE (Ind) 411 Fraser GILLIES (Ind) 382 Peter WALLACE (Con) 338 Dawn MACDONALD (Lab) 224 Helensburgh & Lomond South Gemma PENFOLD (Con) 1,206 Math CAMPBELL-STURGESS (SNP) 562 Henry BOSWELL (LD) 333 Jane Bruce KELLY (Lab) 133 Mike CROWE (Green) 123 Paul BURROWS (WPB) 22 www.argyll-bute.gov.uk/notice-election-wards-8-and-11-18th-march-2021 |
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Post by jollyroger93 on Mar 19, 2021 15:25:06 GMT
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Post by northbriton on Mar 19, 2021 15:40:13 GMT
I think, all in all, Scottish Tories will be pretty satisfied from these and previous results. Overall vote is very solid. The base line was 2017 council elections which was a historic high for the Party, and a month later they gained 12 Westminster seats. |
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Mar 19, 2021 16:08:20 GMT
I get the impression SLAB has been holding up better in Glasgow than in Central and West Scotland. Also in 2019 GE they were clearly second in all Glasgow seats, clearly ahead of the Tories. On the other hand, they have been out-voted or threatened by Tories in some of the Central (East Kilbride, Falkirk) and West (Ayrshire, Renfrewshire) areas.
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Merseymike
Independent
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Post by Merseymike on Mar 19, 2021 17:20:54 GMT
Helensburgh used to be strong for the LibDems, but really, their weakness indicates that the SNP will continue to hold the seat as the Tories don't do well in the more rural and island communities where Ray Michie built her support.
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Tony Otim
Green
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 19, 2021 17:27:13 GMT
Helensburgh used to be strong for the LibDems, but really, their weakness indicates that the SNP will continue to hold the seat as the Tories don't do well in the more rural and island communities where Ray Michie built her support. Except both Helensburgh wards are actually in Dumbarton at Holyrood level, currently held by Labour. So not just a different seat to Argyll and Bute, but actually a different electoral region (Dumbarton is in West of Scotland; A&B in Highland and Islands). |
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Mar 19, 2021 17:38:06 GMT
Helensburgh used to be strong for the LibDems, but really, their weakness indicates that the SNP will continue to hold the seat as the Tories don't do well in the more rural and island communities where Ray Michie built her support. Except both Helensburgh wards are actually in Dumbarton at Holyrood level, currently held by Labour. So not just a different seat to Argyll and Bute, but actually a different electoral region (Dumbarton is in West of Scotland; A&B in Highland and Islands). Might make Dumbarton a bit more competitive? What a strange situation in terms of the boundaries. I'm surprised pitchforks weren't drawn |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Mar 19, 2021 17:55:31 GMT
Except both Helensburgh wards are actually in Dumbarton at Holyrood level, currently held by Labour. So not just a different seat to Argyll and Bute, but actually a different electoral region (Dumbarton is in West of Scotland; A&B in Highland and Islands). Might make Dumbarton a bit more competitive? What a strange situation in terms of the boundaries. I'm surprised pitchforks weren't drawn Goes back to local government re-organisation in the 1990s. Helensburgh and environs were glad to be no longer attached to Dumbarton and The Vale of Leven. The rural areas of A&B were glad of the extra tax base. Win-win. |
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Post by andrewteale on Mar 19, 2021 20:45:54 GMT
The final count in Isle of Bute was very close: McCabe 772 SNP 767. Baillieston was SNP 2133 Lab 1868.
If the Scottish votes had been cast in an ordinary election the winners would probably have been:
Helensburgh and Lomond South: two Conservatives and one SNP (C gain from LD)
Isle of Bute: two independents and one SNP (no change)
Baillieston: 1 SNP, 1 Lab, final seat between the Conservatives and the second SNP candidate (possible SNP gain from C)
Partick East/Kelvindale: one each SNP, Lab, Grn, C (no change)
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jimboo2017
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Post by jimboo2017 on Mar 19, 2021 22:01:00 GMT
We all, in the prediction competition, went for the wrong indy there... Always difficult to pick between different indies if you are not on the spot, but Gillies was the better known to us outsiders ( not necessarily in his favour if you're local)- but had he got another 30 or more first choices he would have probably gone on to win? The wife says Liz McCabe is makes a braw cake - just saying, her shop is open for take always, Fraser runs an outfitters.  |
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Post by yellowperil on Mar 19, 2021 22:35:11 GMT
Always difficult to pick between different indies if you are not on the spot, but Gillies was the better known to us outsiders ( not necessarily in his favour if you're local)- but had he got another 30 or more first choices he would have probably gone on to win? The wife says Liz McCabe is makes a braw cake - just saying, her shop is open for take always, Fraser runs an outfitters. Thanks. Now you tell us. How the hell can you get our heads round that sort of detail if we have never been to the Isle of Bute? Now if it had been Arran maybe there would have been a chance. |
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Post by greyfriar on Mar 19, 2021 22:58:49 GMT
The wife says Liz McCabe is makes a braw cake - just saying, her shop is open for take always, Fraser runs an outfitters. Thanks. Now you tell us. How the hell can you get our heads round that sort of detail if we have never been to the Isle of Bute? Now if it had been Arran maybe there would have been a chance. Psephology in these communities requires a rather different level of knowledge. |
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jimboo2017
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Post by jimboo2017 on Mar 19, 2021 23:46:28 GMT
When Bute Labour went over to do a leaflet drop in Tighnabruaich a member was stopped in the street
Local. Do you know when the milk is delivered in Tighnabruaich?
Labour guy. No.
Local "Rae Michie does" and walks away.
Bute Labour phone bank.
guy 1, Christ you would think you were asking about their sex life the way they shut up
guy 2, justs as the phone is answered. "I'm 65 and don't have a sex life"
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Post by yellowperil on Mar 20, 2021 7:12:11 GMT
I think I should ask for a prediction competition next time there is a contested election for Pluckley parish council.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 20, 2021 12:08:41 GMT
Except both Helensburgh wards are actually in Dumbarton at Holyrood level, currently held by Labour. So not just a different seat to Argyll and Bute, but actually a different electoral region (Dumbarton is in West of Scotland; A&B in Highland and Islands). What a strange situation in terms of the boundaries. I'm surprised pitchforks weren't drawn Doubt if a local council result will make much difference to the coming election tbh. Quite a few who voted Tory this week will almost certainly support Baillie then. |
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jimboo2017
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Post by jimboo2017 on Mar 21, 2021 11:12:12 GMT
Might make Dumbarton a bit more competitive? What a strange situation in terms of the boundaries. I'm surprised pitchforks weren't drawn Doubt if a local council result will make much difference to the coming election tbh. Quite a few who voted Tory this week will almost certainly support Baillie then. They were. When the Helensburgh area applied to be become part of A&B in the local government reform Labour and others were against it but the "Independents" and Tories fought a Brexit style campaign. In a recent poll the majority of people now regret it. I was discussed in the old forum one of the main points of interest was the Independents holding a selection process. Dumbarton rarely had a big majority before the borders were changed |
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Eastwood
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Post by Eastwood on Mar 23, 2021 22:14:02 GMT
When Bute Labour went over to do a leaflet drop in Tighnabruaich a member was stopped in the street Local. Do you know when the milk is delivered in Tighnabruaich?Labour guy. No.Local " Rae Michie does" and walks away. Bute Labour phone bank. guy 1, Christ you would think you were asking about their sex life the way they shut upguy 2, justs as the phone is answered. "I'm 65 and don't have a sex life"
I once went for a Boxing Day walk in the woods just outside Tighnabruaich and met Robert Carlyle walking his dog. Disappointingly it wasn’t a Westie. |
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