iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435 
|
Post by iain on Mar 19, 2021 11:35:29 GMT
Labour in Patrick East/Kelvindale Very good result for Labour. |
|
|
|
Post by jollyroger93 on Mar 19, 2021 11:37:12 GMT
Labour in Patrick East/Kelvindale Conservatives tactically voting for Labour, could be a sign of things to come.... |
|
|
|
Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Mar 19, 2021 11:44:24 GMT
|
|
Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
|
Post by Tony Otim on Mar 19, 2021 11:48:16 GMT
We all, in the prediction competition, went for the wrong indy there... |
|
|
|
Post by No Offence Alan on Mar 19, 2021 11:49:57 GMT
Conservatives tactically voting for Labour, could be a sign of things to come.... It is an STV election (AV because only one vacancy) so tactical voting shouldn't come in to it. Of course if, like the Scottish Tories habitually do, you misrepresent it to be something akin to FPTP, then you risk being hoist with your petard. |
|
Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
|
Post by Tony Otim on Mar 19, 2021 11:57:24 GMT
Conservatives tactically voting for Labour, could be a sign of things to come.... It is an STV election (AV because only one vacancy) so tactical voting shouldn't come in to it. Of course if, like the Scottish Tories habitually do, you misrepresent it to be something akin to FPTP, then you risk being hoist with your petard. I think the issue is more presenting the movement of voters back to Labour from a brief spell of voting Tory as "conservatives" voting tactically. Both the extent to which they were ever and remain conservatives must surely be questioned... |
|
|
|
Post by hullenedge on Mar 19, 2021 11:59:07 GMT
Conservatives tactically voting for Labour, could be a sign of things to come.... It is an STV election (AV because only one vacancy) so tactical voting shouldn't come in to it. Of course if, like the Scottish Tories habitually do, you misrepresent it to be something akin to FPTP, then you risk being hoist with your petard. It can. If we're giving 2nd preferences to Labour rather than someone else or no preferences that's tactical. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2021 12:00:24 GMT
Labour in Patrick East/Kelvindale 2 days late ...  |
|
|
|
Post by jollyroger93 on Mar 19, 2021 12:07:42 GMT
|
|
Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 40,437
Member is Online
|
Post by Merseymike on Mar 19, 2021 12:21:30 GMT
The Partick result is interesting - it appears that the broad votes for nationalism/unionism are much the same - and this is an area with a unionist history and presence - but that some Cons switched to Lab, and some SNP to Green
I'm not sure what impact this would make if we thought about it in terms of a national AMS election, though, in terms of the % changes - any ideas?
|
|
Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
|
Post by Tony Otim on Mar 19, 2021 12:33:15 GMT
The Partick result is interesting - it appears that the broad votes for nationalism/unionism are much the same - and this is an area with a unionist history and presence - but that some Cons switched to Lab, and some SNP to Green I'm not sure what impact this would make if we thought about it in terms of a national AMS election, though, in terms of the % changes - any ideas? The changes would need to be a bit, but not hugely larger to make a difference in the constituency. IF, and that's a big if, there were similar changes on the list, it would probably take away the second Conservative seat, which would then go either to Labour or the Greens (to Labour if those exact changes were reproduced). |
|
|
|
Post by La Fontaine on Mar 19, 2021 12:49:08 GMT
It is an STV election (AV because only one vacancy) so tactical voting shouldn't come in to it. Of course if, like the Scottish Tories habitually do, you misrepresent it to be something akin to FPTP, then you risk being hoist with your petard. It can. If we're giving 2nd preferences to Labour rather than someone else or no preferences that's tactical. So you can define as "tactical" the normal operation of AV! |
|
|
|
Post by andrewp on Mar 19, 2021 13:07:01 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by No Offence Alan on Mar 19, 2021 13:25:40 GMT
The Partick result is interesting - it appears that the broad votes for nationalism/unionism are much the same - and this is an area with a unionist history and presence - but that some Cons switched to Lab, and some SNP to Green I'm not sure what impact this would make if we thought about it in terms of a national AMS election, though, in terms of the % changes - any ideas? I would expect the SNP to hold all of the constituency seats in Glasgow - they all have healthy majorities. On the list last time the score was Lab 4, Con 2, Grn 1. The Greens were only about 6,000 votes behind Con across Glasgow, so overtaking them and getting a second seat at the Cons expense is possible. Labour only just had more than twice the list votes as the Cons. To get a 5th seat they would need more than 2.5 times the vote of the better of Con/Grn. That is a tough ask. |
|
|
|
Post by hullenedge on Mar 19, 2021 13:27:57 GMT
It can. If we're giving 2nd preferences to Labour rather than someone else or no preferences that's tactical. So you can define as "tactical" the normal operation of AV! Nope. Big difference between me voting 1. Tory and no other preferences or 1. Tory 2. Labour. |
|
|
|
Post by yellowperil on Mar 19, 2021 13:49:26 GMT
We all, in the prediction competition, went for the wrong indy there... Always difficult to pick between different indies if you are not on the spot, but Gillies was the better known to us outsiders ( not necessarily in his favour if you're local)- but had he got another 30 or more first choices he would have probably gone on to win? |
|
Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
|
Post by Tony Otim on Mar 19, 2021 13:56:34 GMT
Stage 1 would be over 50% of 1st prefs, which would be a very good result. Suggests perhaps the Lib Dem vote collapsed to the Tories there? |
|
|
|
Post by jollyroger93 on Mar 19, 2021 14:01:43 GMT
Stage 1 would be over 50% of 1st prefs, which would be a very good result. Suggests perhaps the Lib Dem vote collapsed to the Tories there? Sounds that way, I think they had roughly 20% of the vote in 2017% |
|
cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,141
Member is Online
|
Post by cogload on Mar 19, 2021 14:24:05 GMT
Not a total collapse but a big drop nonetheless. Bit of a crap night and a reality check for us.
Well done to the Conservative candidate.
|
|
|
|
Post by northbriton on Mar 19, 2021 14:57:16 GMT
Not a total collapse but a big drop nonetheless. Bit of a crap night and a reality check for us. Well done to the Conservative candidate. So far looks like a hardening of the Unionist determination to vote for the strongest anti-SNP candidate. That may prove good news for the non-SNP candidates defending in May, and also for challengers in seats that are within reach, notably the marginals in the NE and Perthshire where the Tories are the obvious challengers, and possibly one or two Central Belt seats for Labour. No wonder John Swinney is pushing his crowd-funder! |
|
