J.G.Harston
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jan 5, 2021 13:58:24 GMT
2023 Review - Northern Ireland
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therealriga
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Post by therealriga on Jan 6, 2021 14:54:19 GMT
Lack of up-to-date ward electorates means this one has to wait. But the March 2020 situation for constituencies was
North Antrim +5.1%
East Antrim -11.6%
South Antrim -2.0%
Lagan Valley +3.4%
Belfast North -1.4%
Belfast West -11.4%
Belfast South -4.4%
Belfast East -9.7%
North Down -8.6%
Strangford -8.7%
South Down +8.0%
Upper Bann +13.1%
Newry & Armagh +10.8%
Fermanagh & South Tyrone -0.6%
Mid Ulster -3.9%
West Tyrone -9.6%
Foyle +1.4%
East Londonderry -5.5%
Legislation for Northern Ireland does give them extra discretion to go outside the 5% tolerance in some circumstances. In this case, the upper limit remains 5% but there is a possible lower limit of -6.92% (68,313 voters instead of 69,724.)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 10, 2021 14:44:10 GMT
1. Strangford, electorate 70,119, notionally safe DUP 2. Belfast East, electorate 76,598, notionally reasonably safe DUP (not numbered) 3. South Down, electorate 69,105, notionally marginal SF 4. Belfast South, electorate 72,090, notionally I would guess comfortable SF? (not numbered) 5. North Down, electorate 71,314, notionally marginal APNI 6. Belfast North West, electorate 70,683, notionally comfortable SF (not numbered) 7. Lagan Valley, electorate 71,673, notionally safe DUP 8. Lurgan, electorate 69,397, notionally safe DUP 9. Banbridge & Newry, electorate 70,341, notionally I would guess marginal DUP but I really have no idea 10. Armagh, electorate 70,427, notionally safe SF 11. Antrim & Ballymena, electorate 75,530, notionally safe DUP 12. East Londonderry, electorate 73,433, notionally safe DUP 13. Carrickfergus & Glengormley, electorate 73,502, notionally reasonably safe DUP 14. East Antrim, electorate 72,981, notionally safe DUP 15. Foyle, electorate 75,308, notionally safe SDLP 16. Mid Ulster, electorate 68,732, notionally safe SF 17. West Tyrone, electorate 70,632, notionally safe SF 18 Fermanagh & South Tyrone, electorate 73,813, notionally knife-edge SF DUP 9 (+1) SF 7 (-) SDLP 1 (-1) APNI 1 (-) I imagine abolishing Belfast West would result in pitchforks and I'm not too happy about Banbridge & Newry, but otherwise it seems ok. Also annoyed about having to cross the Belfast border |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Jan 10, 2021 16:14:57 GMT
Quick and dirty first go:  1 Fermanagh and South Tyrone 73813 Yes (unchanged except for new ward boundaries) 2 Mid Ulster 68732 Yes (unchanged except for new ward boundaries) 3 West Tyrone 70858 Yes (takes a couple of wards from Foyle) 4 Foyle 69884 Yes (loses a couple of wards to West Tyrone) 5 East Londonderry 69379 Yes (unchanged) 6 North Antrim 70579 Yes (loses Ballycastle area to East Antrim) 7 East Antrim 68964 Yes (takes Ballycastle area from North Antrim) 8 South Antrim 71334 Yes (loses Lisburn and Castlereagh wards to Belfast West) 9 Belfast North 68407 Yes (unchanged except for new ward boundaries) 10 Belfast West 73919 Yes (takes the portion of South Antrim in Lisburn and Castlereagh) 11 Belfast South 71893 Yes (unchanged except for new ward boundaries) 12 Belfast East 69675 Yes (takes Holywood from North Down) 13 North Down 76105 Yes (loses Holywood to Belfast East, takes the Ards Peninsula from Strangford) 14 Strangford 76205 Yes (loses Ards Peninsula to North Down, takes Hillsborough etc from Lagan Valley, takes area north of Downpatrick from South Down) 15 Lagan Valley 73709 Yes (loses Hillsborough etc to Strangford, loses Dromore to and gains Lurgan from Upper Bann 16 Upper Bann 74709 Yes (takes all ABC wards around Bannbridge from South Down and Lagan Valley, loses Lurgan to Lagan Valley, loses the Birches to Armagh) 17 Armagh 71199 Yes (loses Newry to South Down, takes the Birches from Upper Bann) 18 South Down 76324 Yes (takes Newry from Newry and Armagh, loses section in ABC to Upper Bann, loses area north of Downpatrick to Strangford) |
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therealriga
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Post by therealriga on Jan 10, 2021 18:20:21 GMT
European Lefty's is veering into pitchfork territory with the reduction of Belfast to three seats and the unnecessary changes it creates. Neath West's is fine, until it gets to Belfast, where a lot of unnecessary changes are made to constituencies which are within quota. My comments on his in African scammer caps:
1 Fermanagh and South Tyrone 73813 Yes (unchanged except for new ward boundaries) AGREED.
2 Mid Ulster 68732 Yes (unchanged except for new ward boundaries) AGREED.
3 West Tyrone 70858 Yes (takes a couple of wards from Foyle) AGREED.
4 Foyle 69884 Yes (loses a couple of wards to West Tyrone) AGREED.
5 East Londonderry 69379 Yes (unchanged) AGREED.
6 North Antrim 70579 Yes (loses Ballycastle area to East Antrim) AGREED.
7 East Antrim 68964 Yes (takes Ballycastle area from North Antrim) AGREED.
8 South Antrim 71334 Yes (loses Lisburn and Castlereagh wards to Belfast West) NO CHANGES ARE NECESSARY SO IT STAYS WITH 76,335
9 Belfast North 68407 Yes (unchanged except for new ward boundaries) AGREED.
10 Belfast West 73919 Yes (takes the portion of South Antrim in Lisburn and Castlereagh) NO CHANGES ARE NECESSARY APART FROM WARD BOUNDARY CHANGES SO IT STAYS WITH 68,918
11 Belfast South 71893 Yes (unchanged except for new ward boundaries) AGREED.
12 Belfast East 69675 Yes (takes Holywood from North Down) LOUGHVIEW AND HOLYWOOD, YES.
13 North Down 76105 Yes (loses Holywood to Belfast East, takes the Ards Peninsula from Strangford) AGREED.
14 Strangford 76205 Yes (loses Ards Peninsula to North Down, takes Hillsborough etc from Lagan Valley, takes area north of Downpatrick from South Down) WON'T FLY. HILLSBOROUGH LOOKS TO LISBURN, THERE ARE NO LINKS TO NEWTOWNARDS AND IT ALSO UNNECESSARILY CHANGES LAGAN VALLEY. INSTEAD ADD 6 DOWNPATRICK WARDS TO STRANGFORD.
15 Lagan Valley 73709 Yes (loses Hillsborough etc to Strangford, loses Dromore to and gains Lurgan from Upper Bann) APART FROM WARD BOUNDARIES, NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED. IT HAS 74,982.
16 Upper Bann 74709 Yes (takes all ABC wards around Bannbridge from South Down and Lagan Valley, loses Lurgan to Lagan Valley, loses the Birches to Armagh) BREAKING THE LURGAN - PORTADOWN PAIRING, WHICH IS EFFECTIVELY ONE URBAN AREA, WON'T GO. INSTEAD, TRANSFER 4 BANBRIDGE WARDS BACK TO SOUTH DOWN.
17 Armagh 71199 Yes (loses Newry to South Down, takes the Birches from Upper Bann) JUST KEEP NEWRY & ARMAGH INTACT AND TRANSFER LOUGHGALL AND TANDRAGEE WARDS INTO UPPER BANN.
18 South Down 76324 Yes (takes Newry from Newry and Armagh, loses section in ABC to Upper Bann, loses area north of Downpatrick to Strangford) AS ABOVE, TRANSFER OUT DOWNPATRICK AND REPLACE IT WITH BANBRIDGE, THAT MOVES FAR FEWER WARDS.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 10, 2021 22:04:49 GMT
Have we got the new wards now then ?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 10, 2021 22:39:44 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 10, 2021 23:26:09 GMT
Amendement - I'd move Maghaberry from Lagan Valley to Antrim South then Lagan Valley can take Loughbrickland to avoid that annoying protrusion from Armagh.
On reflection I can't see a particularly good reason not to keep the name Strangford for my 'Mid Down' seat.
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therealriga
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Post by therealriga on Jan 10, 2021 23:36:27 GMT
A decent stab. I especially like your unification of Carryduff (which I'd missed.) Moneyreagh in East Belfast makes more sense and your North and West Belfast boundaries are tidier than mine but.... 1) East Londonderry, South Antrim and Lagan Valley are all within quota, assuming they use the lower quota. There's no need to change them. White Mountain ward is part of urban Lisburn, it definitely doesn't belong in South Antrim. Banbridge East ward belongs with the other Banbridge wards, and South Down looks the best fit. Similarly, Rathfriland doesn't belong with Lisburn. 2) North, West and South Belfast are all within quota. Tidying up North and West does look appealing but has been contested at every Boundary Commission hearing I've been at or observed from afar. Given the tight balance in North Belfast, it may be best to leave well alone. You might be able to get away with swapping Glencairn (Forthriver?) & Woodvale and Hightown & Ballyhenry but that increases the nationalist figure which the DUP will contest. Unifying Carryduff in South will probably work, though. 3) The last umpteen commissions have tried to separate Loughbrickland from Banbridge. Consensus has always been they belong together. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 10, 2021 23:53:59 GMT
My bad missing Banbridge East. I wasn't always keeping an eye on ward names and thought that was some random rural area. It's interesting that you propose moving Banbridge into South Down and removing Downpatrick. Back in the day I'd have bitten your hand off - that would have kept Enoch in play for another decade for sure, but it won't help much now I don't suppose
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therealriga
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Post by therealriga on Jan 11, 2021 10:02:59 GMT
My bad missing Banbridge East. I wasn't always keeping an eye on ward names and thought that was some random rural area. It's interesting that you propose moving Banbridge into South Down and removing Downpatrick. Back in the day I'd have bitten your hand off - that would have kept Enoch in play for another decade for sure, but it won't help much now I don't suppose White Mountain ward too looks rural but the population is almost all in the south part, consisting of Lisburn estates. Yes, South Down, even with a Banbridge/Downpatrick swap stays nationalist. An important point to remember is that all these changes also affect the Assembly, since they're all 5-seater Assembly constituencies as well. That means that, in contrast to the rest of the UK, several parties who have no chance at Westminster level have a stake in any changes, as they'll affect their chances at Assembly level. Change too much and they'll kick up a fuss in the enquiries. That means that it really is one region where a minimal change approach would be better (and the lower quota range of -6.9% helps in that.) |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 11, 2021 10:10:29 GMT
So here's a revised offering which incorporates many of therealriga 's suggestions (ie. its basically his plan) and is really a minimum change option I've pulled East Antrim away from the Glens to avoid it including parts of three districts but my revised Strangford and Belfast East seats do now do that True minimum change you'd have Lurigethan and Torr Head & Rathlin back in East Antrim and Glenwhwhirry and Slemish in North. It all depends how you want to balance minimum change against the new (stupid IMO) district boundaries   |
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Post by minionofmidas on Jan 11, 2021 10:12:58 GMT
My bad missing Banbridge East. I wasn't always keeping an eye on ward names and thought that was some random rural area. It's interesting that you propose moving Banbridge into South Down and removing Downpatrick. Back in the day I'd have bitten your hand off - that would have kept Enoch in play for another decade for sure, but it won't help much now I don't suppose White Mountain ward too looks rural but the population is almost all in the south part, consisting of Lisburn estates. Yes, South Down, even with a Banbridge/Downpatrick swap stays nationalist. An important point to remember is that all these changes also affect the Assembly, since they're all 5-seater Assembly constituencies as well. That means that, in contrast to the rest of the UK, several parties who have no chance at Westminster level have a stake in any changes, as they'll affect their chances at Assembly level. Change too much and they'll kick up a fuss in the enquiries. That means that it really is one region where a minimal change approach would be better (and the lower quota range of -6.9% helps in that.) in that respect yr proposals presumably mean a nationalist seat in Strangford and a second unionist seat in S Down. Upper Bann balance doesn't actually change much I think? (The name becomes less appropriate but I suppose stays on account of being more neutral than the alternatives.) |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 11, 2021 10:17:19 GMT
White Mountain ward too looks rural but the population is almost all in the south part, consisting of Lisburn estates. Yes, South Down, even with a Banbridge/Downpatrick swap stays nationalist. An important point to remember is that all these changes also affect the Assembly, since they're all 5-seater Assembly constituencies as well. That means that, in contrast to the rest of the UK, several parties who have no chance at Westminster level have a stake in any changes, as they'll affect their chances at Assembly level. Change too much and they'll kick up a fuss in the enquiries. That means that it really is one region where a minimal change approach would be better (and the lower quota range of -6.9% helps in that.) in that respect yr proposals presumably mean a nationalist seat in Strangford and a second unionist seat in S Down. Upper Bann balance doesn't actually change much I think? (The name becomes less appropriate but I suppose stays on account of being more neutral than the alternatives.) Craigavon would be the alternative but that's a crap name as well so might as well leave well alone |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Jan 11, 2021 10:19:21 GMT
So here's a revised offering which incorporates many of therealriga 's suggestions (ie. its basically his plan) and is really a minimum change option I've pulled East Antrim away from the Glens to avoid it including parts of three districts but my revised Strangford and Belfast East seats do now do that I dislike anything that sacrifices Banbridge like this, especially when simply moving Newry out of Armagh is so close to working. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 11, 2021 10:24:55 GMT
So here's a revised offering which incorporates many of therealriga 's suggestions (ie. its basically his plan) and is really a minimum change option I've pulled East Antrim away from the Glens to avoid it including parts of three districts but my revised Strangford and Belfast East seats do now do that I dislike anything that sacrifices Banbridge like this, especially when simply moving Newry out of Armagh is so close to working. No - totally. When Banbridge could have been used to good effect in South Down I'd have been all for it but now we need it in Upper Bann more than ever. I suppose one argument in favour of this from a partisan perspective is that it makes it more likely the SDLP would wrest the seat back from Sinn Fein but personally I'm not one of those who take the view that an Irish nationalist who sits in Parliament is better than one who doesn't.. |
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Post by johnloony on Jan 11, 2021 10:53:20 GMT
How many quotas are there currently in the electorate of Belfast City council? I guess it's closer to 3 than 4. I also guess that the Boundary Commission will continue the current practice of expanding the Belfast constituencies outwards to include more of the suburbs, rather than grasping the nettle by the horns and creating 3 constituencies within the city boundaries. I don't expect the local residents would like the proposal for expanding Belfast West proposed by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️. Perhaps it would be better if the BCNI were to plunge in at the deep end and start with the local authority boundaries ab initio instead of trying to squidge the existing 18 constituencies into shape. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 11, 2021 11:01:02 GMT
How many quotas are there currently in the electorate of Belfast City council? I guess it's closer to 3 than 4. I also guess that the Boundary Commission will continue the current practice of expanding the Belfast constituencies outwards to include more of the suburbs, rather than grasping the nettle by the horns and creating 3 constituencies within the city boundaries. I don't expect the local residents would like the proposal for expanding Belfast West proposed by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️. Perhaps it would be better if the BCNI were to plunge in at the deep end and start with the local authority boundaries ab initio instead of trying to squidge the existing 18 constituencies into shape. It's 3.12 and you can theoretically fit three quotas into it - Belfast East would be every ward East of the Lagan. The other two seats (North and South West I guess) would be a bit less logical but they work. The issue is with the major redrawing required elsewhere and you end up with monstrosities like in @europeanlefty's plan. The four seat Belfast arrangement is so longstanding (very nearly a century old in fact) and all attempts to change have run into major opposition it isn't really worth trying |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 11, 2021 11:13:40 GMT
It could be done in a way which also more nearly matches traditional county boundaries - it's not going to happen so file this under 'just a bit of fun'  I'm not sure it would be much 'fun' from a Unionist perspective.. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 11, 2021 11:36:30 GMT
My bad missing Banbridge East. I wasn't always keeping an eye on ward names and thought that was some random rural area. It's interesting that you propose moving Banbridge into South Down and removing Downpatrick. Back in the day I'd have bitten your hand off - that would have kept Enoch in play for another decade for sure, but it won't help much now I don't suppose White Mountain ward too looks rural but the population is almost all in the south part, consisting of Lisburn estates. Yes, South Down, even with a Banbridge/Downpatrick swap stays nationalist. An important point to remember is that all these changes also affect the Assembly, since they're all 5-seater Assembly constituencies as well. That means that, in contrast to the rest of the UK, several parties who have no chance at Westminster level have a stake in any changes, as they'll affect their chances at Assembly level. Change too much and they'll kick up a fuss in the enquiries. That means that it really is one region where a minimal change approach would be better (and the lower quota range of -6.9% helps in that.) Although where Belfast West is concerned, if you add Woodvale in then presumably there's a chance of a quota for Unionist there? |
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