2023 Review - Northern Ireland

[therealriga]

Jan 11, 2021 11:01:02 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Jan 11, 2021 10:53:20 GMT johnloony said:

How many quotas are there currently in the electorate of Belfast City council? I guess it's closer to 3 than 4. I also guess that the Boundary Commission will continue the current practice of expanding the Belfast constituencies outwards to include more of the suburbs, rather than grasping the nettle by the horns and creating 3 constituencies within the city boundaries.

I don't expect the local residents would like the proposal for expanding Belfast West proposed by 🏴‍☠️ Neath West 🏴‍☠️ . Perhaps it would be better if the BCNI were to plunge in at the deep end and start with the local authority boundaries ab initio instead of trying to squidge the existing 18 constituencies into shape.

It's 3.12 and you can theoretically fit three quotas into it - Belfast East would be every ward East of the Lagan. The other two seats (North and South West I guess) would be a bit less logical but they work. The issue is with the major redrawing required elsewhere and you end up with monstrosities like in @europeanlefty 's plan. The four seat Belfast arrangement is so longstanding (very nearly a century old in fact) and all attempts to change have run into major opposition it isn't really worth trying

^That. But the other reason is that the 4-compass point split isn't an arbitrary one, it reflects the situation on the ground in a way I doubt exists in many (any?) mainland cities. Does anyone who lives there speak of being from South Coventry/Stoke-on-Trent/Norwich/Bristol/Cardiff etc? In the case of Belfast, socio-economic and religious patterns have led to people talking of being from East or West Belfast, moving to South Belfast etc. North and East are separated by the natural boundary of the Lagan. North and West by the physical barrier of the Shankill peacelines. West and South by the M1 motorway. East and South have a more hazy dividing line somewhere around Ormeau Park. The commission has suggested reducing it to three on and off since the 1994 review and it's been rejected for that reason and also for the disruption it will cause to other established constituencies.

Pete/Neath's comments have made it clear that the question of moving Banbridge or Newry into South Down is likely to be the main battleground in the upcoming review.

To answer Minionofmidas, at Assembly level, the Downpatrick switch moves a Unionist MLA from South Down to Strangford.

To answer East Anglian Lefty, moving Woodvale does make more sense in terms of putting all the Greater Shankill into one seat. It switches a Unionist MLA from North to West Belfast but it weakens the DUP further in North so is unlikely to happen. A boundary tidying up, as Pete suggested, is more likely by swapping Forthriver and Woodvale but still boosts nationalists by a few hundred voters in North (Woodvale has hardly any nationalists, whereas Forthriver includes an Ardoyne extension in the form of the Mountainview estate.) I'd be looking to leave well alone there. 

[🏴‍☠️ Neath West 🏴‍☠️]

If we're doing johnloony 's unlawful version of this (remember the zombie review litigation!), then ABC works for 2 as well:

1 Armagh 72985 Yes
2 Upper Bann 69819 Yes
3 Newry and Mourne 73790 Yes
4 Mid Down 70293 Yes
5 North Down 72997 Yes
6 Strangford 71986 Yes
7 Lagan Valley 69734 Yes
8 Belfast East 75448 Yes
9 Belfast West 76026 Yes
10 Belfast North 72919 Yes
11 North Antrim 70654 Yes
12 South Antrim 72565 Yes
13 East Antrim 68620 Yes
14 East Londonderry 69367 Yes
15 Mid Ulster 68732 Yes
16 Fermanagh and South Tyrone 73813 Yes
17 Foyle 75308 Yes
18 West Tyrone 70632 Yes

[obsie]

The whole point of the Strangford name is that it covers most of the lough (apart from the bit bordering Lecale and Strangford village itself). Once you take out the Ards peninsula, Mid Down makes more sense as a name.

[kevinlarkin]

I have made a minor change to the Northern Ireland data file in Plan Builder.

Five wards have had their best-fit current constituency changed at the suggestion of Nicholas Whyte:

Jordanstown, should be E Antrim not S Antrim;
Hightown, should be N Belfast not S Antrim;
Carryduff East, should be S Belfast not Strangford;
Banbridge East, should be Upper Bann not S Down;
Crossgar and Killyleagh, should be Strangford not S Down. 

[greenhert]

My plan for Northern Ireland, based considerably on realigning constituencies to new local government boundaries as well as old county boundaries where possible: ibb.co/3ffcrYX

1. Fermanagh & South Tyrone (69,346).
2. West Tyrone (69,901)
3. Mid Ulster (68,732). Unchanged.
4. Foyle (75,308). Adjusted for new ward boundaries but otherwise unchanged.
5. East Londonderry (69,379). Unchanged.
6. North Antrim (75,840).
7. East Antrim (74,825). Loses orphan ward in Causeway Coast & Glens and gains Glenwhirry & Slemish areas in Mid & East Antrim, as well as areas north of Newtonabbey in Antrim & Newtonabbey.
8. Mid Antrim (72,586). Succeeds South Antrim, expands to include all of Newtonabbey (some suburbs of it are currently in Belfast North).
9. Lisburn (68,473). Succeeds Lagan Valley, has been drawn to remove as many areas traditionally in County Down as possible.
10. Belfast South West (73,495). Succeeds Belfast West in practice.
11. Belfast South East (76,895). Succeeds Belfast East. Contains no wards of Lisburn & Castlereagh.
12. Belfast North (74,300). Now entirely in Belfast; contains no Antrim & Newtonabbey wards.
13. North Down (75,347). Gains Castlereagh.
14. Newtonards (69,636). Succeeds Strangford. Gains area around Newtonbreda (currently in Belfast South) in Lisburn & Castlereagh in exchange for losing all areas in Newry, Mourne & Down.
15. Mid Down (68,343). Succeeds South Down despite the name. Contains all Newry, Mourne & Down wards not in South Down and the area in Lisburn & Castlereagh around Carryduff.
16. South Down (70,775). Succeeds Newry & Armagh in practice (Newry was in County Down, not County Armagh). Entirely in Newry, Mourne & Down.
17. Armagh (72,895). Succeeds Upper Bann in practice. Comprises western half of Armagh, Bainbridge & Craigavon (i.e. area around city of Armagh and town of Craigavon). Sadly it is not possible to entirely recreate the old Armagh constituency nor is what corresponded to County Armagh large enough for two seats.
18. West Down (69,819). New seat. Comprises eastern half of Armagh, Banbridge & Craigavon (i.e. area around Lurgan and Bainbridge).

Belfast South disappears.

[Pete Whitehead]

Newry was (is) divided between counties Down and Armagh - East of the river in Down, West in Armagh. I think you are still right though that you can't quite fit two whole seats into county Armagh and you couldn't even if you included all of Newry as the southern tier of wards from the old Craigavon district were in County Down and Aghagallon was in County Antrim

[therealriga]

Jan 16, 2021 20:50:42 GMT greenhert said:

My plan for Northern Ireland, based considerably on realigning constituencies to new local government boundaries as well as old county boundaries where possible: ibb.co/3ffcrYX

1. Fermanagh & South Tyrone (69,346).
2. West Tyrone (69,901)
3. Mid Ulster (68,732). Unchanged.
4. Foyle (75,308). Adjusted for new ward boundaries but otherwise unchanged.
5. East Londonderry (69,379). Unchanged.
6. North Antrim (75,840).
7. East Antrim (74,825). Loses orphan ward in Causeway Coast & Glens and gains Glenwhirry & Slemish areas in Mid & East Antrim, as well as areas north of Newtonabbey in Antrim & Newtonabbey.
8. Mid Antrim (72,586). Succeeds South Antrim, expands to include all of Newtonabbey (some suburbs of it are currently in Belfast North).
9. Lisburn (68,473). Succeeds Lagan Valley, has been drawn to remove as many areas traditionally in County Down as possible.
10. Belfast South West (73,495). Succeeds Belfast West in practice.
11. Belfast South East (76,895). Succeeds Belfast East. Contains no wards of Lisburn & Castlereagh.
12. Belfast North (74,300). Now entirely in Belfast; contains no Antrim & Newtonabbey wards.
13. North Down (75,347). Gains Castlereagh.
14. Newtonards (69,636). Succeeds Strangford. Gains area around Newtonbreda (currently in Belfast South) in Lisburn & Castlereagh in exchange for losing all areas in Newry, Mourne & Down.
15. Mid Down (68,343). Succeeds South Down despite the name. Contains all Newry, Mourne & Down wards not in South Down and the area in Lisburn & Castlereagh around Carryduff.
16. South Down (70,775). Succeeds Newry & Armagh in practice (Newry was in County Down, not County Armagh). Entirely in Newry, Mourne & Down.
17. Armagh (72,895). Succeeds Upper Bann in practice. Comprises western half of Armagh, Bainbridge & Craigavon (i.e. area around city of Armagh and town of Craigavon). Sadly it is not possible to entirely recreate the old Armagh constituency nor is what corresponded to County Armagh large enough for two seats.
18. West Down (69,819). New seat. Comprises eastern half of Armagh, Banbridge & Craigavon (i.e. area around Lurgan and Bainbridge).

Belfast South disappears.

Your seat 16 of South Down contains a lot of South Armagh, so "Newry & Mourne" as it's identical to the former council of that name. 
Note that the commission themselves proposed this seat in their provisional recommendations in 1994, though also including Newcastle. It was rejected along with the 3-seat Belfast proposal that the provisional proposals contained due to the disruption to existing seats. Nationalist parties also kicked up a stink, controversially aided by the Irish government, as it combined the best bits of South Down and Newry & Armagh, eliminating a nationalist seat. 

[Wisconsin]

Jan 6, 2021 14:54:19 GMT therealriga said:

Legislation for Northern Ireland does give them extra discretion to go outside the 5% tolerance in some circumstances. In this case, the upper limit remains 5% but there is a possible lower limit of -6.92% (68,313 voters instead of 69,724.)

Probably worthwhile reading Lynch if you are considering proposing a constituency less than 69,724.
www.bailii.org/nie/cases/NICA/2020/32.pdf

(I believe the relevant provisions haven’t been amended by the latest Act.)

[therealriga]

Jan 17, 2021 1:05:52 GMT Wisconsin said:

Jan 6, 2021 14:54:19 GMT therealriga said:

Legislation for Northern Ireland does give them extra discretion to go outside the 5% tolerance in some circumstances. In this case, the upper limit remains 5% but there is a possible lower limit of -6.92% (68,313 voters instead of 69,724.)

Probably worthwhile reading Lynch if you are considering proposing a constituency less than 69,724.
www.bailii.org/nie/cases/NICA/2020/32.pdf

(I believe the relevant provisions haven’t been amended by the latest Act.)

Yes, of course, however that case related to a 17-seat map where all constituencies had to be changed in some way. In this case, an 18-seat map, the commission can reasonably argue that they are applying Rule 7 in order to comply with Rule 5 (local ties / boundaries of existing constituencies.) 

[Pete Whitehead]

Here's one that keeps every seat above the 69.724 so avoids any problems there. Fairly similar to my first draft on page 1 but with a few changes to achieve that and also tidied up a bit to better reflect new district boundaries

[therealriga]

In NI under rule 9 there's more leeway on local government boundaries than on the mainland since the rules say

(3) “Local government boundaries” are -
(d) in Northern Ireland, the boundaries of wards.

so you can cross more local council boundaries but in practice, totally ignoring them will result in kickback at local enquiries.

[greenhert]

Jan 16, 2021 23:17:10 GMT therealriga said:

Jan 16, 2021 20:50:42 GMT greenhert said:

My plan for Northern Ireland, based considerably on realigning constituencies to new local government boundaries as well as old county boundaries where possible: ibb.co/3ffcrYX

1. Fermanagh & South Tyrone (69,346).
2. West Tyrone (69,901)
3. Mid Ulster (68,732). Unchanged.
4. Foyle (75,308). Adjusted for new ward boundaries but otherwise unchanged.
5. East Londonderry (69,379). Unchanged.
6. North Antrim (75,840).
7. East Antrim (74,825). Loses orphan ward in Causeway Coast & Glens and gains Glenwhirry & Slemish areas in Mid & East Antrim, as well as areas north of Newtonabbey in Antrim & Newtonabbey.
8. Mid Antrim (72,586). Succeeds South Antrim, expands to include all of Newtonabbey (some suburbs of it are currently in Belfast North).
9. Lisburn (68,473). Succeeds Lagan Valley, has been drawn to remove as many areas traditionally in County Down as possible.
10. Belfast South West (73,495). Succeeds Belfast West in practice.
11. Belfast South East (76,895). Succeeds Belfast East. Contains no wards of Lisburn & Castlereagh.
12. Belfast North (74,300). Now entirely in Belfast; contains no Antrim & Newtonabbey wards.
13. North Down (75,347). Gains Castlereagh.
14. Newtonards (69,636). Succeeds Strangford. Gains area around Newtonbreda (currently in Belfast South) in Lisburn & Castlereagh in exchange for losing all areas in Newry, Mourne & Down.
15. Mid Down (68,343). Succeeds South Down despite the name. Contains all Newry, Mourne & Down wards not in South Down and the area in Lisburn & Castlereagh around Carryduff.
16. South Down (70,775). Succeeds Newry & Armagh in practice (Newry was in County Down, not County Armagh). Entirely in Newry, Mourne & Down.
17. Armagh (72,895). Succeeds Upper Bann in practice. Comprises western half of Armagh, Bainbridge & Craigavon (i.e. area around city of Armagh and town of Craigavon). Sadly it is not possible to entirely recreate the old Armagh constituency nor is what corresponded to County Armagh large enough for two seats.
18. West Down (69,819). New seat. Comprises eastern half of Armagh, Banbridge & Craigavon (i.e. area around Lurgan and Bainbridge).

Belfast South disappears.

Your seat 16 of South Down contains a lot of South Armagh, so "Newry & Mourne" as it's identical to the former council of that name. 
Note that the commission themselves proposed this seat in their provisional recommendations in 1994, though also including Newcastle. It was rejected along with the 3-seat Belfast proposal that the provisional proposals contained due to the disruption to existing seats. Nationalist parties also kicked up a stink, controversially aided by the Irish government, as it combined the best bits of South Down and Newry & Armagh, eliminating a nationalist seat. 

Newry & Mourne, then. I did primarily draw this map with regard to new local authority boundaries and with regard to old county boundaries (where it was necessary to split seats between authorities), with limited regard to existing seats or to the demographics of the new seats. I have at least made sure that West Tyrone does not contain any part of County Londonderry and that East Londonderry contains no part of County Antrim. I am not sure how much of County Down ended up remaining in my proposed Lisburn constituency.

[therealriga]

Jan 17, 2021 12:25:35 GMT greenhert said:

Jan 16, 2021 23:17:10 GMT therealriga said:

 I have at least made sure that West Tyrone does not contain any part of County Londonderry and that East Londonderry contains no part of County Antrim. I am not sure how much of County Down ended up remaining in my proposed Lisburn constituency.

The existing East Londonderry already includes part of County Antrim around Portrush so extending it a bit more along the coast is doable. You've also added North Fermanagh to West Tyrone and that's much more likely to rankle than adding parts of County Londonderry, since Fermanagh is too small for a seat of its own whereas County Londonderry has been split between constituencies since WW2.

[Pete Whitehead]

I think if you wanted to draw constituencies that more or less respected county boundaries (and you can't completely because several ward boundaries don't) you'd need to have 22 seats. This would equate to around 750 across the UK which is something I favour actually. That would be 5 each for Antrim and Down, 4 in Belfast, 3 in Londonderry, 2 each in Armagh and Tyrone and 1 in Fermanagh. The Fermanagh seat would be very undersized but if the whole point of the exercise is to respect county boundaries that would seem to be justified as a special case. I may put something up on the fantasy constituency thread later

[edgbaston]

Would this map get the DUP back to 10 seats or is that now impossible

imgur.com/a/8wymM29

[aidanthomson]

Here's my offering for a solution comprising only seats with electorates above 69,724. It's quite similar to a number of other ones that have been uploaded.

ibb.co/rbk007Z (all NI)
ibb.co/jJscj5T (greater Belfast)

1. Foyle (69,884): loses New Buildings and Slievekirk
2. West Tyrone (70,858): gains New Buildings and Slievekirk
3. East Londonderry (71,849): gains Giant's Causeway
4. Mid Ulster (71,027): gains Killyman
5. Fermanagh and South Tyrone (71,518): loses Killyman
6. North Antrim (73,370): loses Giant's Causeway, Slemish and Glenwhirry, gains Lurigethan
7. East Antrim (70,812): gains Ballyduff, Fairview, Slemish and Glenwhirry, loses Lurigethan
8. South Antrim (72,083): loses Ballyduff, Fairview, Burnthill and Carnmoney, gains White Mountain, Maghaberry and Ballinderry
9. Belfast North (71,768): loses Woodvale, gains Burnthill and Carnmoney
10. Belfast West (72,365): gains Woodvale
11. Belfast South (73,304): gains Moneyreagh, loses Hillfoot
12. Belfast East (73,277): gains Hillfoot, Loughview and Holywood
13. North Down (76,105): loses Loughview and Holywood, gains Loughries and the five Ards peninsula wards
14. Mid Down (70,403): ex-Strangford, loses Moneyreagh, Loughries and the Ards peninsula, gains the seven wards around Downpatrick
15. Lagan Valley (72,285): loses White Mountain, Maghaberry and Ballinderry, gains Magheralin and Donaghcloney
16. Upper Bann (72,546): gains Loughgall and Richhill, loses Banbridge, Loughbrickland, Magheralin and Donaghcloney
17. Newry and Armagh (71,380): loses Loughgall and Richhill
18. South Down (70,854): gains Banbridge and Loughbrickland, loses the seven Downpatrick wards

[therealriga]

I was playing around in the south-east of NI trying to find a minimal change option and found one that leaves

- Holywood in North Down
- Ards peninsula in Strangford
- Downpatrick in South Down
- Newry in Newry & Armagh

In all, it involves moving 25,290 voters compared to 41,440 voters, a significant difference.

It's achieved by adding Banbridge to Lagan Valley, which is fully justifiable given good road connections along the A1. What's the catch, you ask? Well, it requires an ugly southward extension of North Down to gain Scrabo and Glen wards (the latter splitting Newtownards.) It also involves a clumsy addition in the west to Strangford and the pitchfork inducing transfer of Lambeg to West Belfast. However, the latter can be avoided by transferring Maghaberry ward to South Antrim (which would require shifting a ward out of there to East Antrim.)

/photo/1

[phoenixparnell]

Boundary Review season. It feels like it gets earlier ever decade. I wonder if this one will ever see the light of day. 

This is my take on it. I've taken the 4 Belfast constituency option as i suspect that's the approach the commission will take. In my opinion that is a mistake though. Sticking with 4 means massive upheavel in both North Down and Strangford in unavoidable. IMHO the benefits outweigh the costs.

NI - ibb.co/zGgtns8
Belfast - ibb.co/pwKNnxB

I've used elements of the approachs taken by other posters.

Banbridge > Lagan Valley
Downpatrick > Strangford
Newry > South Down

There are other smaller moves, but I've attempted to respect the boundaries of existing constituencies, council districts and counties where possible.

Every constituency is above the 69,724 limit. It seems likely to me that the commission will want to do that in the initial proposals, and then use particularly unfavourable responses in individual areas as justification to use the extra wiggle room they get in NI.

What is a little different is moving Ballymoney into East Derry, which gets renamed as Limavady & Dunluce given it now includes a big chunk of Co. Antrim. I suspect a lot of people would be very happy to see a map that avoids the Derry/Londonderry dispute completely.

[Deleted]

Feb 5, 2021 0:17:12 GMT phoenixparnell said:

Boundary Review season. It feels like it gets earlier ever decade. I wonder if this one will ever see the light of day. 

This is my take on it. I've taken the 4 Belfast constituency option as i suspect that's the approach the commission will take. In my opinion that is a mistake though. Sticking with 4 means massive upheavel in both North Down and Strangford in unavoidable. IMHO the benefits outweigh the costs.

NI - ibb.co/zGgtns8
Belfast - ibb.co/pwKNnxB

I've used elements of the approachs taken by other posters.

Banbridge > Lagan Valley
Downpatrick > Strangford
Newry > South Down

There are other smaller moves, but I've attempted to respect the boundaries of existing constituencies, council districts and counties where possible.

Every constituency is above the 69,724 limit. It seems likely to me that the commission will want to do that in the initial proposals, and then use particularly unfavourable responses in individual areas as justification to use the extra wiggle room they get in NI.

What is a little different is moving Ballymoney into East Derry, which gets renamed as Limavady & Dunluce given it now includes a big chunk of Co. Antrim. I suspect a lot of people would be very happy to see a map that avoids the Derry/Londonderry dispute completely.

 Forgive me! I thought your links weren't working. As you were!

[YL]

Feb 5, 2021 0:17:12 GMT phoenixparnell said:

Boundary Review season. It feels like it gets earlier ever decade. I wonder if this one will ever see the light of day. 

This is my take on it. I've taken the 4 Belfast constituency option as i suspect that's the approach the commission will take. In my opinion that is a mistake though. Sticking with 4 means massive upheavel in both North Down and Strangford in unavoidable. IMHO the benefits outweigh the costs.

But doesn't a three seat Belfast just spread upheaval through the current Lagan Valley and South Antrim seats (and Belfast itself of course) instead? I've worked out a plan with a three seat Belfast (well, nearly: one ward is outside the city seats) and while it makes minor changes only to North Down (gains Dundonald, loses Donaghadee), Strangford (gains Donaghadee) and South Down, it contains a "West Down" stretching from Newtownbreda to Banbridge, which I'm not terribly keen on, and parts of southern Antrim are really a bit of a mess, though perhaps could be improved.