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Post by greatkingrat on Jun 29, 2023 11:32:55 GMT
There are a couple of minor ward splits.
Abbey ward is currently split between North Belfast and East Antrim. The proposal was to include it wholly in East Antrim, but they have now decided to keep the original ward split.
Gransha ward is currently split between Lagan Valley and South Down. The proposal was to include it wholly in South Down, but they have now decided to keep the original ward split.
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Post by johnloony on Jun 30, 2023 15:14:42 GMT
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Post by edgbaston on Jun 30, 2023 16:39:42 GMT
That Belfast South arrangement is just bizarre |
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Post by islington on Jun 30, 2023 19:06:55 GMT
That Belfast South arrangement is just bizarre Well, maybe. But on a positive note we now have a Strangford constituency that, for the first time in the entire period that name has been used (i.e. since 1983), includes ... (wait for it) ... actual Strangford. Which incidentally may be a rival to the nomination by johnloony of Eye as the smallest town ever to have a constituency named after it (I presume he meant since 1832).
(And yes, I know the name 'Strangford' has always been justified as referring to the Lough, not the town.)
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Jun 30, 2023 19:38:00 GMT
That Belfast South arrangement is just bizarre It would have been impossible to avoid some strange changes. Looking at the three constituencies of North Down, East Belfast, and South Belfast combined, they currently have nice borders but are 10k electors under now thanks to population changes so need to expand in some direction. All potential expansion directions would have just been weird- 1) Ards Peninsula into North Down. Just doesn't fit as well there compared to its current position, and would be odd to share a constituency with Bangor but not Newtownards. 2) Newtownards into North Down. Looks okay per se, but would lead to the Ards Peninsula not having a land connection with the rest of Strangford constituency. 3) Bits of West Belfast like Dunmurry into South Belfast. Crosses the natural border of the motorway and there are considerable cultural differences between South and West Belfast, so not ideal. 4) Duncairn/New Lodge from North Belfast to East Belfast. Similar issue of crossing a natural border of the river, just looks odd. 5) Saintfield and bits of rural Down into South Belfast (what actually happened). Looks weird having a mixed urban-rural constituency but at least it's geographically coherent, and also means Strangford has to take on some of the excess South Down voters thereby avoiding too many knock on effects. It's probably the best of a bunch of bad options. |
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Post by edgbaston on Jun 30, 2023 19:53:39 GMT
I don’t think Ards peninsula into North Down would’ve been that odd, certainly better than the seat extending into Belfast even more. North Down is effectively a 5th Belfast seat (even more so) now.
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Jun 30, 2023 21:56:05 GMT
I don’t think Ards peninsula into North Down would’ve been that odd, certainly better than the seat extending into Belfast even more. North Down is effectively a 5th Belfast seat (even more so) now. I suppose something like this then. It's okay, but significantly less of a least-change map than what we got.  |
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Post by edgbaston on Jun 30, 2023 23:37:43 GMT
I don’t think Ards peninsula into North Down would’ve been that odd, certainly better than the seat extending into Belfast even more. North Down is effectively a 5th Belfast seat (even more so) now. I suppose something like this then. It's okay, but significantly less of a least-change map than what we got. Looks like you’ve come up with a much better alternative. I strongly dislike the least change principle, bad seats should be culled, and completely new ones created vs worsening a current arrangement. |
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Post by greatkingrat on Jul 1, 2023 0:01:16 GMT
I suppose something like this then. It's okay, but significantly less of a least-change map than what we got. Looks like you’ve come up with a much better alternative. I strongly dislike the least change principle, bad seats should be culled, and completely new ones created vs worsening a current arrangement. That is in no way better than what the BCNI proposed. It manages to split Carryduff, Dundonald and Newtownards. |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Jul 1, 2023 0:46:44 GMT
Looks like you’ve come up with a much better alternative. I strongly dislike the least change principle, bad seats should be culled, and completely new ones created vs worsening a current arrangement. That is in no way better than what the BCNI proposed. It manages to split Carryduff, Dundonald and Newtownards. To be fair it's probably viable to eliminate those splits, would just have to have a lot of ward splits and I don't have sub ward level data. |
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Post by aidanthomson on Jul 5, 2023 22:19:39 GMT
That Belfast South arrangement is just bizarre It would have been impossible to avoid some strange changes. Looking at the three constituencies of North Down, East Belfast, and South Belfast combined, they currently have nice borders but are 10k electors under now thanks to population changes so need to expand in some direction. All potential expansion directions would have just been weird- 1) Ards Peninsula into North Down. Just doesn't fit as well there compared to its current position, and would be odd to share a constituency with Bangor but not Newtownards. 2) Newtownards into North Down. Looks okay per se, but would lead to the Ards Peninsula not having a land connection with the rest of Strangford constituency. 3) Bits of West Belfast like Dunmurry into South Belfast. Crosses the natural border of the motorway and there are considerable cultural differences between South and West Belfast, so not ideal. 4) Duncairn/New Lodge from North Belfast to East Belfast. Similar issue of crossing a natural border of the river, just looks odd. 5) Saintfield and bits of rural Down into South Belfast (what actually happened). Looks weird having a mixed urban-rural constituency but at least it's geographically coherent, and also means Strangford has to take on some of the excess South Down voters thereby avoiding too many knock on effects. It's probably the best of a bunch of bad options. While Saintfield's addition doesn't look great, it houses a lot of Belfast commuters, as do Moneyreagh and Drumbo. So at least it has some community of interest with places like Carryduff and Newtownbreda. Of the other options that you mention, 3) was a definite possibility, and (I would argue) preferable to the Saintfield solution. The ward is better off than the rest of West, and parts of it are pretty well-heeled; Dunmurry Village is far more like the leafier parts of south Belfast than it is like Andersonstown or the Falls. That's not the case for the whole ward, but a ward split (e.g., along Old Golf Course Road) could have fixed that. So it would have been possible to have included it in Belfast South, kept Saintfield in Strangford, and moved a few wards in a daisy-chain-type way from Lagan Valley to Antrim South, Antrim South to Belfast North, and Belfast North to Belfast West, resulting in a map like the one below. (The pink lines are the revised proposals, for comparison.) Glengormley is split, but that's a problem with the current arrangement as well.  |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 7, 2023 10:44:20 GMT
It would have been impossible to avoid some strange changes. Looking at the three constituencies of North Down, East Belfast, and South Belfast combined, they currently have nice borders but are 10k electors under now thanks to population changes so need to expand in some direction. All potential expansion directions would have just been weird- 1) Ards Peninsula into North Down. Just doesn't fit as well there compared to its current position, and would be odd to share a constituency with Bangor but not Newtownards. 2) Newtownards into North Down. Looks okay per se, but would lead to the Ards Peninsula not having a land connection with the rest of Strangford constituency. 3) Bits of West Belfast like Dunmurry into South Belfast. Crosses the natural border of the motorway and there are considerable cultural differences between South and West Belfast, so not ideal. 4) Duncairn/New Lodge from North Belfast to East Belfast. Similar issue of crossing a natural border of the river, just looks odd. 5) Saintfield and bits of rural Down into South Belfast (what actually happened). Looks weird having a mixed urban-rural constituency but at least it's geographically coherent, and also means Strangford has to take on some of the excess South Down voters thereby avoiding too many knock on effects. It's probably the best of a bunch of bad options. While Saintfield's addition doesn't look great, it houses a lot of Belfast commuters, as do Moneyreagh and Drumbo. So at least it has some community of interest with places like Carryduff and Newtownbreda. Of the other options that you mention, 3) was a definite possibility, and (I would argue) preferable to the Saintfield solution. The ward is better off than the rest of West, and parts of it are pretty well-heeled; Dunmurry Village is far more like the leafier parts of south Belfast than it is like Andersonstown or the Falls. That's not the case for the whole ward, but a ward split (e.g., along Old Golf Course Road) could have fixed that. So it would have been possible to have included it in Belfast South, kept Saintfield in Strangford, and moved a few wards in a daisy-chain-type way from Lagan Valley to Antrim South, Antrim South to Belfast North, and Belfast North to Belfast West, resulting in a map like the one below. (The pink lines are the revised proposals, for comparison.) Glengormley is split, but that's a problem with the current arrangement as well. Additionally, those numbers would let you undo the split of Quoile ward. |
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Post by aidanthomson on Jul 7, 2023 16:33:51 GMT
While Saintfield's addition doesn't look great, it houses a lot of Belfast commuters, as do Moneyreagh and Drumbo. So at least it has some community of interest with places like Carryduff and Newtownbreda. Of the other options that you mention, 3) was a definite possibility, and (I would argue) preferable to the Saintfield solution. The ward is better off than the rest of West, and parts of it are pretty well-heeled; Dunmurry Village is far more like the leafier parts of south Belfast than it is like Andersonstown or the Falls. That's not the case for the whole ward, but a ward split (e.g., along Old Golf Course Road) could have fixed that. So it would have been possible to have included it in Belfast South, kept Saintfield in Strangford, and moved a few wards in a daisy-chain-type way from Lagan Valley to Antrim South, Antrim South to Belfast North, and Belfast North to Belfast West, resulting in a map like the one below. (The pink lines are the revised proposals, for comparison.) Glengormley is split, but that's a problem with the current arrangement as well. Additionally, those numbers would let you undo the split of Quoile ward. Meaning that it could all go into South Down? Yes, that's true, though given the geography I'd be more inclined to split Quoile ward along the River Quoile and transfer the rest of Strangford ward back into South Down, which would also work in terms of numbers. |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Nov 16, 2023 21:01:27 GMT
I've added the demographic changes of the boundary review in Northern Ireland to Wikipedia. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Periodic_Review_of_Westminster_constituencies#Demographic_changes_from_new_boundariesThings I found quite interesting/noteworthy were- The biggest change is in Strangford, where the Catholic share of the population increased from 15% of the vote to 21%. This will probably make it considerably easier as a potential general election Alliance target seat; had last year's assembly election happened under the new lines it would have easily been possible for the SDLP to pick up a seat. I could even imagine Sinn Fein trying to have a go at it next assembly election. Very similar situation (but less strongly) happens in Lagan Valley too. Fermanagh and South Tyrone and Belfast North both shift to being a few percent more Catholic. Probably means the end of the unionist parties being able to seriously contest each of those at the Westminster level. Belfast West's Protestant population increases substantially- probably enough to ensure the DUP a reliable assembly seat in future. Changes in the other seats are more minor so I can't see anything else which would have changed majorly. |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Apr 24, 2024 10:21:34 GMT
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Post by parlconst on Apr 25, 2024 18:54:04 GMT
Thanks for sharing this fascinating talk. I was pleased to see that Nicholas Whyte used the boundary maps from the parlconst.org website to illustrate his lecture, but also rather disappointed that he did not acknowledge the source. |
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