2023 Review - Northern Ireland

[robert1]

I understand that the proposals will be published this Wednesday 20th.

It has apparently been tweeted.

[robert1]

The proposals will be online at midday.

[YL]

Maps here

New names suggested are "Belfast South & Mid Down" and "Strangford & Quoile".

Basically Belfast South extends south to take in Drumbo and Saintfield, losing some of its eastern fringes to East, which thus doesn't need to take on Holywood, which stays in North Down. Strangford gains Downpatrick (hence "Quoile") from South Down, but Ballynahinch goes the other way. Fairly minor changes elsewhere, but Fermanagh & South Tyrone takes in a bit of County Armagh (around Loughgall).

[The Bishop]

Oct 20, 2021 11:06:31 GMT YL said:

New names suggested are "Belfast South & Mid Down" and "Strangford & Quoile".

That sounds promising.....

EDIT: yes, of course this was not meant in a literal sense

[Pete Whitehead]

Oct 20, 2021 11:10:21 GMT The Bishop said:

Oct 20, 2021 11:06:31 GMT YL said:

New names suggested are "Belfast South & Mid Down" and "Strangford & Quoile".

That sounds promising.....

In what sense? Or are you being sarcastic? Fuckwitted name and the Strangford & Quoile one is even worse. If they want to acknowledge the addition of Downpatrick to that seat how about Strangford & Downpatrick? (Actually East Down would be a better name)

[Davıd Boothroyd]

It's as near to a minimal change proposal as could be made within the rules. The two renamings are bats though.

[YL]

A few more details:

- Dungannon moves from FST to Mid Ulster, which loses Pomeroy and Donaghmore to West Tyrone;
- North Down actually takes a Belfast ward, Garnerville;
- Two wards are split, Loughries and Carrowdore in Ards & North Down, both along the existing constituency boundary;
- islington will be delighted to observe that there are four constituencies covering parts of three districts.

[heverlee2019]

Oct 20, 2021 11:06:31 GMT YL said:

Maps here

New names suggested are "Belfast South & Mid Down" and "Strangford & Quoile".

Basically Belfast South extends south to take in Drumbo and Saintfield, losing some of its eastern fringes to East, which thus doesn't need to take on Holywood, which stays in North Down. Strangford gains Downpatrick (hence "Quoile") from South Down, but Ballynahinch goes the other way. Fairly minor changes elsewhere, but Fermanagh & South Tyrone takes in a bit of County Armagh (around Loughgall).

They're hardly minor elsewhere are they?

There seems far heavier disruption here than there ever needed to be.

[Pete Whitehead]

I think F&ST might be notionally Unionist on those boundaries but its not going to make a huge difference. Only other partisan impact I can see is Belfast North shifting more Nationalist

[YL]

Oct 20, 2021 12:59:11 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I think F&ST might be notionally Unionist on those boundaries but its not going to make a huge difference.

It must be, I think, given how small the majority was last time.

Only other partisan impact I can see is Belfast North shifting more Nationalist

How about Alliance's chances in Belfast East?

[rcronald]

Belfast West looks like it’s below the required population.

[greatkingrat]

Oct 20, 2021 13:08:17 GMT rcronald said:

Belfast West looks like it’s below the required population.

If you include the cemeteries, it's OK.

[YL]

Oct 20, 2021 13:08:17 GMT rcronald said:

Belfast West looks like it’s below the required population.

It's OK: if you take the version of the existing seat realigned to the new wards on Boundary Assistant, you need to remove Forth River and add Woodvale in Belfast and Derryaghy (in Lisburn & Castlereagh district). That gives 71,921, which is the figure the BCNI give.

[heverlee2019]

Oct 20, 2021 12:41:29 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

It's as near to a minimal change proposal as could be made within the rules. The two renamings are bats though.

You're not serious...

You mean in terms of naming right?

The easy minor changes to the western constituencies have been completely completely ignored.

[Pete Whitehead]

Oct 20, 2021 13:05:06 GMT YL said:

Oct 20, 2021 12:59:11 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I think F&ST might be notionally Unionist on those boundaries but its not going to make a huge difference.

It must be, I think, given how small the majority was last time.

Only other partisan impact I can see is Belfast North shifting more Nationalist

How about Alliance's chances in Belfast East?

I'd have thought that at least notionally that is stronger for the DUP and weaker for Alliance

[YL]

Oct 20, 2021 18:22:50 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Oct 20, 2021 13:05:06 GMT YL said:

How about Alliance's chances in Belfast East?

I'd have thought that at least notionally that is stronger for the DUP and weaker for Alliance

Notionally I would think that's right. But how much of a potential SDLP to Alliance tactical shift is there in the areas moved from South? I think Wynchurch (the relevant part of Cregagh) would be pretty strong for Alliance in that context, Woodstock better for the DUP, Hillfoot somewhere in between, but what's the overall effect?

[Pete Whitehead]

Oct 20, 2021 19:28:21 GMT YL said:

Oct 20, 2021 18:22:50 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I'd have thought that at least notionally that is stronger for the DUP and weaker for Alliance

Notionally I would think that's right. But how much of a potential SDLP to Alliance tactical shift is there in the areas moved from South? I think Wynchurch (the relevant part of Cregagh) would be pretty strong for Alliance in that context, Woodstock better for the DUP, Hillfoot somewhere in between, but what's the overall effect?

I don't know so will take your question as rhetorical (or rather let others with better local knowledge answer). There's also the removal of Garnerville to be considered and my guess would be that would be more Alliance inclined than average, but that might also be a highly uneducated guess..

[greenhert]

The initial proposals are the worst set of Northern Ireland constituency proposals I have seen so far. There is absolutely no need for Belfast South to expand that far into County Down, and nor should North Down take in any Belfast wards. And whose idea was it to include any part of County Armagh in Fermanagh & South Tyrone, or remove an integral town, Dungannon, from it??

[Arthur Figgis]

Oct 20, 2021 13:14:08 GMT greatkingrat said:

Oct 20, 2021 13:08:17 GMT rcronald said:

Belfast West looks like it’s below the required population.

If you include the cemeteries, it's OK.

Over.

[aidanthomson]

Oct 20, 2021 19:42:40 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Oct 20, 2021 19:28:21 GMT YL said:

Notionally I would think that's right. But how much of a potential SDLP to Alliance tactical shift is there in the areas moved from South? I think Wynchurch (the relevant part of Cregagh) would be pretty strong for Alliance in that context, Woodstock better for the DUP, Hillfoot somewhere in between, but what's the overall effect?

I don't know so will take your question as rhetorical (or rather let others with better local knowledge answer). There's also the removal of Garnerville to be considered and my guess would be that would be more Alliance inclined than average, but that might also be a highly uneducated guess..

I'd say Garnerville would be about average for Belfast East in terms of DUP/Alliance share. There are some leafy middle-class areas but also a couple of loyalist council estates, and, insofar as the former are more likely to be Alliance-inclined and the latter DUP-inclined, I reckon that the two would cancel each other out. I lived in the ward for over a decade and the DUP were always pretty visible on polling day at the polling stations in a way that Alliance weren't, though that could just have been my polling station.

YL's assessment of the three ex-South wards sounds about right, for what it's worth, though the big question in South is how many voters from the unionist community voted for Claire Hanna (I read somewhere that she was ahead even in parts of The Village, which would be remarkable).