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Post by aberdarian on Sept 7, 2021 23:44:41 GMT
I'm irritated that they've left the 2 Aberaman wards out of the Merthyr & Aberdare seat especially as these could actually fit the quota if Nelson (from Caerphilly county) wasn't included. Obviously taking Nelson out will have further knock-on effects and losing the Aberaman wards would probably mean Pontypridd going under the quota. I'll have to try messing around with this area.
Cardiff South & Penarth looks even more ridiculous than it normally does. To get from Trowbridge to the rest of the constituency without passing through another seems to involve walking through the sea.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 8, 2021 5:11:45 GMT
"Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr" is a beauty.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 8, 2021 5:21:55 GMT
I'm irritated that they've left the 2 Aberaman wards out of the Merthyr & Aberdare seat especially as these could actually fit the quota if Nelson (from Caerphilly county) wasn't included. Obviously taking Nelson out will have further knock-on effects and losing the Aberaman wards would probably mean Pontypridd going under the quota. I'll have to try messing around with this area. Cardiff South & Penarth looks even more ridiculous than it normally does. To get from Trowbridge to the rest of the constituency without passing through another seems to involve walking through the sea. If you zoom into the map, it's clear as day, there is no direct connection between the wards. |
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YL
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Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Sept 8, 2021 5:37:54 GMT
My first impressions are that there are quite a few issues here. Cardiff is a mess: that detached part, and two orphan wards tacked on. Swansea isn't great either. The Vale of Clwyd area is not good (and both "Clwyd" and "Delyn" are terrible names). Montgomeryshire & Glyndŵr is a bad seat (and I wouldn't call it that either) but it's debatable whether the alternatives are worse, or at least more controversial.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,908
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Post by YL on Sept 8, 2021 5:48:58 GMT
I'm irritated that they've left the 2 Aberaman wards out of the Merthyr & Aberdare seat especially as these could actually fit the quota if Nelson (from Caerphilly county) wasn't included. Obviously taking Nelson out will have further knock-on effects and losing the Aberaman wards would probably mean Pontypridd going under the quota. I'll have to try messing around with this area. Cardiff South & Penarth looks even more ridiculous than it normally does. To get from Trowbridge to the rest of the constituency without passing through another seems to involve walking through the sea. If you remove Nelson and add Aberaman then Pontypridd can just regain Pont-y-clun from Cardiff West. I can do Cardiff without Pont-y-clun, though I'm not sure I've found the best solution yet. (I don't have a detached part, though.) |
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Post by andrewp on Sept 8, 2021 6:04:44 GMT
When we were discussing Cardiff South and Penarth when the constituency profiles were being done, I think there was general consensus that this is the rubbish constituency that makes all of the others surrounding it quite good. This seems to have made it even worse this time though, and I know some people don’t think it matters, but I am amazed that the proposed constituency contains essentially a detached part. I think those of us who play this game would probably discount that combination as entirely impossible for that reason.
I would have thought there is a strong argument for putting Penarth in with bits of Cardiff West, rather than what is essentially Cardiff East.
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Post by loderingo on Sept 8, 2021 8:04:12 GMT
As a fifth of the constituencies are going I thought the commission would start with a blank slate but what they seem to have done is tried to preserve as many existing constituencies within new constituencies as possible. So in Cardiff, N and W are just under quota so get a ward each from RCT. South is over quota so loses 2 to Central while gaining one from the Vale.
In the NE, they have the weird boundaries as they have abolished Clwyd S and decided to give all the surrounding constituencies a top up.
The commission need to be more will8ng to move away from some of the existing arrangements, especially where they weren't good to start with
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Post by Deleted on Sept 8, 2021 8:14:06 GMT
They do seem wedded to certain names. Now is the time to lose "Delyn".
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Post by aberdarian on Sept 8, 2021 8:49:43 GMT
I'm irritated that they've left the 2 Aberaman wards out of the Merthyr & Aberdare seat especially as these could actually fit the quota if Nelson (from Caerphilly county) wasn't included. Obviously taking Nelson out will have further knock-on effects and losing the Aberaman wards would probably mean Pontypridd going under the quota. I'll have to try messing around with this area. Cardiff South & Penarth looks even more ridiculous than it normally does. To get from Trowbridge to the rest of the constituency without passing through another seems to involve walking through the sea. If you remove Nelson and add Aberaman then Pontypridd can just regain Pont-y-clun from Cardiff West. I can do Cardiff without Pont-y-clun, though I'm not sure I've found the best solution yet. (I don't have a detached part, though.) Yes, you're right. This is just one way of dividing Cardiff (and Penarth). Though it also includes Taffs Well. I'm sure there are plenty of others.  |
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Post by islington on Sept 8, 2021 8:55:23 GMT
The BCW scheme assigns 12 seats to the combined area of BG/Caerphilly/Cardiff/MT/Newport/RCT/VoG.
Here's an alternative that also assigns 12 seats to the identical area but with fewer boundary-crossings, only one orphan ward and no detached parts. Changes from the BCW scheme are noted.
Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney - 71079. As per BCW but can't we think of a better name for it? Is 'Abertillery' out of the question?
Cardiff Central - 69813. Loses Rumney and Llanrumney, gains Riverside. Note all the Cardiff seats are small in this scheme. Cardiff North - 70054. Loses Llandaff N and Taff's Well; gains Llanrumney. Now contained wholly within Cardiff.
Cardiff South and Penarth - 70394. Loses Dinas Powys, gains Rumney (and thus now not divided). Cardiff West - 70645. Loses Riverside and Pont-y-Clun, gains Llandaff N and Dinas Powys (the latter now the only orphan ward in this area).
Islwyn - 74298. As the BCW had it with the addition of Nelson ward. Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare - 74805. Loses its sole Caerphilly ward, gains Aberaman. Newport East - 76159. As per BCW. Newport West and Caerphilly - 74394. Likewise.
Pontypridd - 73003. Loses the Aberaman wards, gains two wards from Cardiff seats. Rhondda - 71684. As per BCW.
Vale of Glamorgan - 70426. Also as per BCW.
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Sept 8, 2021 9:13:18 GMT
Putting the Llangunnor ward (which contains a large part of what normal people think of as Carmarthen, including its railway station) into Llanelli rather than Carmarthen is a magnificent bit of pitchfork bait.
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Post by islington on Sept 8, 2021 9:22:29 GMT
Putting the Llangunnor ward (which contains a large part of what normal people think of as Carmarthen, including its railway station) into Llanelli rather than Carmarthen is a magnificent bit of pitchfork bait. Easily remediable, though.
Just put Lungunnor in Carmarthen, which is then 72683 with Llanelli small but still legal at 69895.
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Post by justin124 on Sept 8, 2021 9:57:29 GMT
Brecon&Radnor in recent elections has seen considerable tactical voting by former Labour voters for the LDs.Restoring Ystradgynlais et al to the seat rather takes away the rationale for that and could make the seat a serious Labour prospect again - as in pre-1983 - were the tactical voting now to unwind.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,908
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Post by YL on Sept 8, 2021 10:05:40 GMT
If you remove Nelson and add Aberaman then Pontypridd can just regain Pont-y-clun from Cardiff West. I can do Cardiff without Pont-y-clun, though I'm not sure I've found the best solution yet. (I don't have a detached part, though.) Yes, you're right. This is just one way of dividing Cardiff (and Penarth). Though it also includes Taffs Well. I'm sure there are plenty of others. I'd found this solution as well. I think it's the best of the ones I found. |
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Post by ClevelandYorks on Sept 8, 2021 10:11:37 GMT
They do seem wedded to certain names. Now is the time to lose "Delyn". There seems to be a strange devotion to the short-lived and long-forgotten districts e.g. Delyn, Preseli, Dinefwr, Aberconwy and now Glyndwr. Some of these may still be used locally but I'm fairly sure residents are more likely to recognise major town names or old county names, e.g. Delyn becomes Flint or West Flintshire, Preseli becomes North Pembrokeshire etc |
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Post by loderingo on Sept 8, 2021 10:15:24 GMT
Brecon&Radnor in recent elections has seen considerable tactical voting by former Labour voters for the LDs.Restoring Ystradgynlais et al to the seat rather takes away the rationale for that and could make the seat a serious Labour prospect again - as in pre-1983 - were the tactical voting now to unwind. Ystradgynlais is already in B&R. Adding the Swansea Valley helps Labour but probably not enough to give them a shot at winning |
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Post by justin124 on Sept 8, 2021 10:24:04 GMT
Brecon&Radnor in recent elections has seen considerable tactical voting by former Labour voters for the LDs.Restoring Ystradgynlais et al to the seat rather takes away the rationale for that and could make the seat a serious Labour prospect again - as in pre-1983 - were the tactical voting now to unwind. Ystradgynlais is already in B&R. Adding the Swansea Valley helps Labour but probably not enough to give them a shot at winning Ok - but do not the proposals restore the Labour voting districts removed from the seat by the 1983 Boundary Review? Labour would surely have won the 1985 by election had it been fought on the proposed boundaries - and remained the main Tory opponent at subsequent GEs. |
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Post by bjornhattan on Sept 8, 2021 10:31:04 GMT
Ystradgynlais is already in B&R. Adding the Swansea Valley helps Labour but probably not enough to give them a shot at winning Ok - but do not the proposals restore the Labour voting districts removed from the seat by the 1983 Boundary Review? Labour would surely have won the 1985 by election had it been fought on the proposed boundaries - and remained the main Tory opponent at subsequent GEs. Didn't the pre-1983 boundaries include places like Brynmawr? I wouldn't expect Pontardawe to be quite so Labour voting. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 8, 2021 10:35:42 GMT
Ystradgynlais is already in B&R. Adding the Swansea Valley helps Labour but probably not enough to give them a shot at winning Ok - but do not the proposals restore the Labour voting districts removed from the seat by the 1983 Boundary Review? No. The area removed from the constituency in 1983 was Penderyn and Cefn-coed-y-cymmer, added to Cynon Valley and Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney respectively. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Sept 8, 2021 11:01:48 GMT
They do seem wedded to certain names. Now is the time to lose "Delyn". There seems to be a strange devotion to the short-lived and long-forgotten districts e.g. Delyn, Preseli, Dinefwr, Aberconwy and now Glyndwr. Some of these may still be used locally but I'm fairly sure residents are more likely to recognise major town names or old county names, e.g. Delyn becomes Flint or West Flintshire, Preseli becomes North Pembrokeshire etc Accept the general point but Aberconwy dates to the 12th century! So not just the District Council. And some of us think the current local authority should be Aberconwy rather than Conwy. |
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