ian48
Non-Aligned
Posts: 58
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Post by ian48 on Sept 7, 2021 15:08:24 GMT
I am pretty sure that putting Bethesda and Bangor in the Number 2 seat would make that a Labour seat rather than it being notionally. Tory. I wondered if this might finally be the review to put Llandudno, Colwyn Bay and Conwy in the same seat, but it seems not unless something drastic happens. It's such a silly thing to do and the commissioners clearly have no knowledge of the region. It's the same urban area and is a natural seat.
Caernarfon and Bangor are a natural pairing too.
Seems the Tories' sop to Anglesey (which should have been paired with the mainland), may well cost them a seat they could have held Aberconwy, to save one they may very well not hold either (Ynys Mon).
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Post by rcronald on Sept 7, 2021 15:12:29 GMT
I am pretty sure that putting Bethesda and Bangor in the Number 2 seat would make that a Labour seat rather than it being notionally. Tory. I wondered if this might finally be the review to put Llandudno, Colwyn Bay and Conwy in the same seat, but it seems not unless something drastic happens. It's such a silly thing to do and the commissioners clearly have no knowledge of the region. It's the same urban area and is a natural seat. Caernarfon and Bangor are a natural pairing too. Seems the Tories' sop to Anglesey (which should have been paired with the mainland), may well cost them a seat they could have held Aberconwy, to save one they may very well not hold either (Ynys Mon). Yes, I would be shock if the gwynedd (and conwy) proposals survive public consultation…. |
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Post by rcronald on Sept 7, 2021 15:18:47 GMT
I’m pretty sure 7 is notional Tory why, does this extend into Pembrokeshire or something? No, but it takes a lot of Con territory from Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire while losing some Plaid territory to Llanelli and given that the seat was already a marginal it is highly likely that the Tories would have won it in 2019. |
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islington
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Post by islington on Sept 7, 2021 15:22:04 GMT
Right, I think I've got it ...
 
All within quota.
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ian48
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Post by ian48 on Sept 7, 2021 15:27:22 GMT
They seem to have started with Dwyfor Meirionydd and decided everything else after that. Hence the weird meeting of 5 seats within a few miles of each other north west of Wrexham and how seats 2, 13 and 14 track south east. I did my own version of North Wales, but couldn't upload the image here. I recall others have said how to, but I didn't have time to search how it's done.
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islington
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Post by islington on Sept 7, 2021 15:36:04 GMT
Cardiff S (if I have it right) is a total train wreck.
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johnloony
Conservative
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Post by johnloony on Sept 7, 2021 15:42:54 GMT
Has part of Neath been added to Brecon or is the boundary just not that clear? That's the way I read it, and part of it is not an illogical move - Ystradgynlais connects south-west down the valley so adding a bit more from that direction does link communities. But Gwaun-cae-Gurwen seems to have come too and that is less logical. I remember that the media coverage of the Brecon & Radnor by-election in 1985 mentioned Ystradgynlais a lot, as if it had great significance. How much was involved in the boundary changes which came into effect in 1983? |
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ian48
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Post by ian48 on Sept 7, 2021 15:43:40 GMT
Right, I think I've got it ...
All within quota.
I wondered if they had put Rhos on Sea and Mochdre in Aberconwy, I couldn't see but thought they may have. If you are right then they have lost the plot. Rhos on Sea is an integral part of the urban area of Colwyn Bay and Mochdre is only marginally less part of the urban area. It's going to split urban residential streets so that seats can extend either way and south for 30 odd miles, when there is no need. Madness and clearly the product of people who know nothing about North Wales. |
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Post by hullenedge on Sept 7, 2021 15:45:38 GMT
That's the way I read it, and part of it is not an illogical move - Ystradgynlais connects south-west down the valley so adding a bit more from that direction does link communities. But Gwaun-cae-Gurwen seems to have come too and that is less logical. I remember that the media coverage of the Brecon & Radnor by-election in 1985 mentioned Ystradgynlais a lot, as if it had great significance. How much was involved in the boundary changes which came into effect in 1983? All the Welsh boundary reports are online (pdfs on Google). If you can't locate let me know and I'll forward. |
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850
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Post by johng on Sept 7, 2021 16:43:36 GMT
Right, I think I've got it ...
*Pics snip* Thanks for these. I can see a hell of a lot clearer now.
The more I look, the more issues I see.
And I think the posters above are right that 7 would have been a notional Con seat in 2019, but it is narrow and it wouldn't have been Tory in 2017.
Though I think Plaid's vote in the west of the county may be artificially lowered by the fact they have/ had no chance of winning that seat at all. Their vote share fell in every election from 2001-2019.
On the 2021 Senedd election numbers, I think it would be notional Plaid.
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 7, 2021 18:05:37 GMT
With the (ex)shires having these quotas: - before 1974:  - 1974-1996:  - since 1996:   ...the least unsensible thing would be to respect and not touch MonmouthShire, GlamorganShire, Dyfed and the north (=FlintS.&DenbighS.&CaernarvonS.). In the latter let remain present-day DenbighS., thus handing over 3 seats to FlintS.&Wrexham. Give something from Conwy to Caernarfon and basically merge Merionett&Montgomery. Inside Dyfed transferring NE-PembrokeS. to Ceredigion. 4 MPs for exWestGlamorgan aso. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Sept 7, 2021 18:26:25 GMT
In the latter let remain present-day DenbighS. not an idea I'll ever be sold on but surely preferrable to splitting it down its length. What did the commissioners need to smoke to think that up!? |
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Post by afleitch on Sept 7, 2021 18:33:41 GMT
Apparently the Commission seems to think North Wales has valleys too.
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Post by hugh01 on Sept 7, 2021 18:58:50 GMT
Looks like they have split Denbighshire 3 or 4 ways, 2 of which seem to be around the River Clwyd. Splitting the Vale of Clwyd (the actual Vale not the constituency named Vale of Clwyd) right down the middle using wards either side of the river makes no sense at all. Also having Rhyl and Prestatyn in separate constituencies isn't ideal either.
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Post by Penddu on Sept 7, 2021 19:03:29 GMT
Overall it doesnt look too bad - apart from Brecon & Tawe Valley combination... politically very lopsided...
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Post by grahammurray on Sept 7, 2021 19:08:47 GMT
Apparently the Commission seems to think North Wales has valleys too. They're right to. |
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Post by greenhert on Sept 7, 2021 23:08:01 GMT
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Post by greenhert on Sept 7, 2021 23:21:16 GMT
Seats that would be abolished under these proposals:
Cynon Valley
Gower
Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire
Clwyd South
Arfon
Caerphilly
Clwyd West
Bridgend* (the proposed Bridgend seat is mathematically a successor to Ogmore)
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Sept 7, 2021 23:26:09 GMT
A quick look with all the details shows there's a lot that makes sense, but a lot that doesn't.
Some of those constituencies and some of those names... sweet Jesus.
'Newport West and Caerphilly' and 'Swansea Central and North' tell you all you need to know.
I also note that most of Aberdare is missing from the seat which has the name Aberdare and the Carmarthen seat cuts it rather fine too.
Does anyone have the notionals for the proposed Aberconwy? It looks a little less Tory friendly that I initially thought.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 7, 2021 23:36:46 GMT
Cardiff South and Penarth appears to be in two parts, because the only junction between Splott and Trowbridge is out in Cardiff Bay. Rumney (which is in Cardiff Central) blocks them off.
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