Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 7, 2021 12:43:07 GMT
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Post by hullenedge on Sept 7, 2021 12:51:34 GMT
Estimated Lab 19 (-3), Con 10 (-4) and PC 3 (-1). |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Sept 7, 2021 12:55:56 GMT
Estimated Lab 19 (-3), Con 10 (-4) and PC 3 (-1). Can you identify the seats? |
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Post by hullenedge on Sept 7, 2021 13:03:39 GMT
Estimated Lab 19 (-3), Con 10 (-4) and PC 3 (-1). Can you identify the seats? Nope but that appears to be the consensus on Twitter. Seems about right. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 7, 2021 13:09:56 GMT
I'm trying to get names for each seat, they've done quite interesting things!
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 7, 2021 13:17:16 GMT
Plaid would win 7, 12, 15.
The Conservatives would win 2, 5, 13, 14, 19, 20, 21, 30, 31, and possibly the replacement for Newport West which now includes bits of Caerphilly?
I would have thought no. 1 (Bridgend and Aberavon) would have a Labour majority in 2019.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850 
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Post by johng on Sept 7, 2021 13:25:21 GMT
A quick look shows nothing too unexpected. Though some of the Valleys seats look a bit of a mess.
At first glance the numbers look about right.
New Bridgend looks a lot nicer for us than the current Bridgend. There's just one Tory seat in Pembrokeshire and they are down 2 in North/Mid Wales.
Though there will be some tough seats. I imagine that new Camarthenshire seat will be a real three-way battle. 2 will be interesting as well.
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Post by islington on Sept 7, 2021 13:37:22 GMT
I'm trying to get names for each seat, they've done quite interesting things! Well, they're clearly in alphabetical order, and not all the numbers are included so it's a pretty puzzle for anyone that can't wait until midnight.
Here's a first stab. Feel free to disagree with any or all of it.
- Aberavon
- Aberconwy
- Alyn & Deeside
- Blaenau Gwent & something
- Brecon (& Radnor & Swansea Valley)
- Bridgend
- Caerfyrddin
- Cardiff C
- Cardiff N
- Cardiff S
- Cardiff W
- Ceredigion
- Denbigh
- Flint
- Gwynedd
- Islwyn
- Llanelli
- Merthyr Tydfil &
- Milford Haven
- Monmouth
- Montgomery (& other bits)
- Newport
- ?
- Pontypridd
- Rhondda
- Swansea C
- Swansea E
- Swansea W
- Torfaen
- Vale of Glamorgan
- Wrexham
- Ynys Mon
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Post by rcronald on Sept 7, 2021 13:42:00 GMT
Plaid would win 7, 12, 15. The Conservatives would win 2, 5, 13, 14, 19, 20, 21, 30, 31, and possibly the replacement for Newport West which now includes bits of Caerphilly? I would have thought no. 1 (Bridgend and Aberavon) would have a Labour majority in 2019. I’m pretty sure 7 is notional Tory |
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Post by rcronald on Sept 7, 2021 13:47:15 GMT
A quick look shows nothing too unexpected. Though some of the Valleys seats look a bit of a mess. At first glance the numbers look about right. New Bridgend looks a lot nicer for us than the current Bridgend. There's just one Tory seat in Pembrokeshire and they are down 2 in North/Mid Wales. Though there will be some tough seats. I imagine that new Camarthenshire seat will be a real three-way battle. 2 will be interesting as well. I would say that giving half of arfon to conwy is a bit unexpected but the rest are not surprising. |
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Post by rcronald on Sept 7, 2021 13:57:54 GMT
Estimated Lab 19 (-3), Con 10 (-4) and PC 3 (-1). I think it’s closer to Lab 19 (-4) ,Con 11 (-3) ,PC 2 (-2) PC : 12,15 Con : 2,5,7,13,14,19,20,21,30,31,32 Lab : 1,3,4,6,8,9,10,11,16,17,18,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29 |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,908
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Post by YL on Sept 7, 2021 14:29:50 GMT
Well, they're clearly in alphabetical order, and not all the numbers are included so it's a pretty puzzle for anyone that can't wait until midnight. Here's a first stab. Feel free to disagree with any or all of it.
- Aberavon
- Aberconwy
- Alyn & Deeside
- Blaenau Gwent & something
- Brecon (& Radnor & Swansea Valley)
- Bridgend
- Caerfyrddin
- Cardiff C
- Cardiff N
- Cardiff S
- Cardiff W
- Ceredigion
- Denbigh
- Flint
- Gwynedd
- Islwyn
- Llanelli
- Merthyr Tydfil &
- Milford Haven
- Monmouth
- Montgomery (& other bits)
- Newport
- ?
- Pontypridd
- Rhondda
- Swansea C
- Swansea E
- Swansea W
- Torfaen
- Vale of Glamorgan
- Wrexham
- Ynys Mon
I assume 23 is Newport West & Caerphilly or similar, and 22 may be Newport East. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Sept 7, 2021 14:30:52 GMT
I'm trying to get names for each seat, they've done quite interesting things! Well, they're clearly in alphabetical order, and not all the numbers are included so it's a pretty puzzle for anyone that can't wait until midnight.
Here's a first stab. Feel free to disagree with any or all of it.
- Aberavon
- Aberconwy
- Alyn & Deeside
- Blaenau Gwent & something
- Brecon (& Radnor & Swansea Valley)
- Bridgend
- Caerfyrddin
- Cardiff C
- Cardiff N
- Cardiff S
- Cardiff W
- Ceredigion
- Denbigh
- Flint
- Gwynedd
- Islwyn
- Llanelli
- Merthyr Tydfil &
- Milford Haven
- Monmouth
- Montgomery (& other bits)
- Newport
- ?
- Pontypridd
- Rhondda
- Swansea C
- Swansea E
- Swansea W
- Torfaen
- Vale of Glamorgan
- Wrexham
- Ynys Mon
Newport W & Something ("Risca Valley" in one of the zombies iirc |
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Post by minionofmidas on Sept 7, 2021 14:34:24 GMT
Plaid would win 7, 12, 15. The Conservatives would win 2, 5, 13, 14, 19, 20, 21, 30, 31, and possibly the replacement for Newport West which now includes bits of Caerphilly? I would have thought no. 1 (Bridgend and Aberavon) would have a Labour majority in 2019. I’m pretty sure 7 is notional Tory why, does this extend into Pembrokeshire or something? |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Sept 7, 2021 14:34:33 GMT
Has part of Neath been added to Brecon or is the boundary just not that clear? |
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Post by minionofmidas on Sept 7, 2021 14:36:31 GMT
Anyways, they've taken a third option to the Grand Question, split Montgomeryshire or unite it with Meirionydd.
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Post by minionofmidas on Sept 7, 2021 14:38:46 GMT
Has part of Neath been added to Brecon or is the boundary just not that clear? not of Neath town, which is presumably in "Swansea E & Neath", but certainly of West Glamorgan. |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,908
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Post by YL on Sept 7, 2021 14:40:34 GMT
Has part of Neath been added to Brecon or is the boundary just not that clear? Yes, Brecon & Radnor gains the Pontardawe/Brynaman/Ystalyfera area of Neath Port Talbot. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 7, 2021 14:42:44 GMT
Has part of Neath been added to Brecon or is the boundary just not that clear? That's the way I read it, and part of it is not an illogical move - Ystradgynlais connects south-west down the valley so adding a bit more from that direction does link communities. But Gwaun-cae-Gurwen seems to have come too and that is less logical. |
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Post by islington on Sept 7, 2021 14:49:24 GMT
Has part of Neath been added to Brecon or is the boundary just not that clear? It's the Swansea Valley area - Pontardawe, &c. |
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