2023 Review - East Midlands

[J.G.Harston]

2023 Review - East Midlands

[YL]

47 seats

County and unitary quotas

Derbyshire CC 8.39
Derby 2.38
(Derbyshire total 10.78)

Nottinghamshire CC 8.32
Nottingham 2.90
(Nottinghamshire total 11.22)

Leicestershire CC 7.28
Leicester 3.00
(Leicestershire total 10.28)

Rutland 0.41

Lincolnshire 7.52

North Northamptonshire (pending UA) 3.34
West Northamptonshire (pending UA) 3.88
(Northants total 7.22)

[YL]

One possible allocation would be:

Derbyshire (inc. Derby) 11
Nottinghamshire (inc. Nottingham) 11
Leicestershire CC 7
Leicester 3
Lincolnshire and Rutland 8
Northamptonshire 7

... but there's room for debate about whether either Leicester or Nottingham should be treated separately, and whether if one of them is the rest of its county (a tightish but not impossible looking fit in both cases) should have its border with Derbyshire crossed.

[Pete Whitehead]

imgur is over capacity so I guess everyone is busy uploading maps of their new boundaries. Anyway, I thought Northants would be tricky with an average seat size of 75,700 but managed a fairly neat job there:

Corby 75,856 (loses Irthlingborough x 2 and Stanwick to Wellingborough and Woodford to Kettering)
Kettering 74,474 (gains Woodfird from Corby)
Wellingborough 76,465 (gains wards from Corby as above, loses Bozeat, Great Doddington and Wollaston to South Northants and Finedon and Harrowden & Sywell (pt) to Daventry)
South Northants 76,905 (gains as above from Wellingborough and the two South Northants wards currently in Daventry. Loses the entire Northampton borough element to Northampton South plus Grange Park
Daventry 76,006 (loses the South Northants wards and gains Finedon and the part of Harrowden & Sywell not already included from Wellingborough
Northampton North 75,376 (along with reuniting split wards, gains Billing, Rectory Farm, Park and Riverside from South)
Northampton South 74,817 (gains the the Northampton wards currently in South Northants along with Grange Park from that district and constituency)

[Pete Whitehead]

[YL]

I fear Northamptonshire is another area with "prospective" wards (arising from the new unitaries) which we don't have the data for yet

[Pete Whitehead]

Jan 7, 2021 8:12:55 GMT YL said:

I fear Northamptonshire is another area with "prospective" wards (arising from the new unitaries) which we don't have the data for yet

Yes maybe - still it shows it is possible to keep the county intact, even if it means a ward split or two on the revised wards/date. I had assumed from previous numbers that we would endure all kinds of annoying cross-county constituencies in this region but your figures show that except for obviously Lincolnshire and Rutland none may be required (though suspect that as you suggest a bit of Leicestershire may need to go into a Derbyshire seat)

[emidsanorak]

On the current wards, it is possible to have a seven seat Northamptonshire with only one constituency crossing between North and West. The new wards are the current County Council divisions, so they can be compared on the OS website map. There are several solutions to a 10 seat Leicester and Leicestershire. All seem to involve crossing the City boundary twice. I have yet to find a 7 seat solution for the County without the City. If you cross the Derbyshire/Leicestershire boundary, it is easy to keep the City intact.

[Deleted]

First stab at the East Midlands, Lincolnshire

1. Louth & Horncastle - loses Roughton, Woodhall Spa, Willoughby & Sloothby, Chapel St Leonards, gains Sibsey & Stickney and realigns Halton Holegate. Electorate 72,359, notionally safe Conservative
2. Boston & Skegness - gains Willoughby & Sloothby, Chapel St Leonards, loses Sibsey & Stickney. Electorate 71,685, notionally safe Conservative
3. Stamford & Rutland - all of Rutland, all the Stamford wards, all the Bourne wards, Morton, Castle, Dole Wood, Glen, Casewick, Market & West Deeping. Electorate 76,410
4. Lincoln & North Hykeham - City of Lincoln, all NH wards. Electorate 76,816, notionally marginal Conservative
5. Mid Lincolnshire - remainder of Sleaford & N Hykeham minus Loveden Heath, Viking, Belvoir, Peasecliffe, Osvournby & Sleaford wards, plus, Bardney, Ragby, Roughton, Woodhall Spa. Electorate 70,432, notionally safe Conservative
6. Grantham & Sleaford - Grantham wards, Sleaford wards, Loveden Heath, Viking, Belvoir, Peasecliffe, Osvournby, Isaac Newton, Lincrest, Toller, Aveland
7. Gainsborough - loses Wragby, Bardney. Electorate 72,611, notionally safe Conservative
8. South Holland & The Deepings - loses Market & West Deeping. Electorate 70,810, notionally safe Conservative

Con 8 (+1)

[Pete Whitehead]

There's no need to breach the boundary between North Kesteven and East Lindsey (or indeed between South Kesteven and South Holland)

[Pete Whitehead]

Also here's my Leicestershire (though as noted elsewhere, the BCE may not care for my disregard for their 'minimal change' dogma in regard to the Harborough/Blaby/Oadby & Wigston are)

[Deleted]

Jan 8, 2021 0:17:20 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

There's no need to breach the boundary between North Kesteven and East Lindsey (or indeed between South Kesteven and South Holland)

Fair point, I chose the way I did it because I wanted to keep Boston whole and put Lincoln/North Hykeham together 

[Deleted]

Northamptonshire:

1. Corby & Raunds - loses Irthlingborough, Lyveden, Woodford. Electorate 75,859, notionally marginal Conservative
2. Northampton North - gains Abington, Phippsville from Northampton North, all Northampton wards and Grange Park from S Northants. Electorate 74,130, notionally marginally Conservative
3. Kettering - gains Woodford, Lyveden. Electorate 76,169, notionally safe Conservative
4. Wellingborough & Higham Ferrers - loses Woollaston, Bozeat, Finedon, Harrowden & Sywell, gains Irthlingborough. Electorate 76,361, notionally safe Conservative
5. South Northamptonshire - Eponymous district minus Grange Park, Wollaston, Bozeat. Electorate 75,311, notionally safe Conservative
6. Daventry - loses S Northants wards, gains Finedon, Harrowden & Sywell. Electorate 76,006, notionally safe Conservative
7. Northampton North - the rest of Northampton. Electorate 76,063, notionally very marginal Conservative

Con 7 (-), although Northampton North and Corby become more marginal

[Pete Whitehead]

Jan 7, 2021 9:16:13 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Jan 7, 2021 8:12:55 GMT YL said:

I fear Northamptonshire is another area with "prospective" wards (arising from the new unitaries) which we don't have the data for yet

Yes maybe - still it shows it is possible to keep the county intact, even if it means a ward split or two on the revised wards/date. I had assumed from previous numbers that we would endure all kinds of annoying cross-county constituencies in this region but your figures show that except for obviously Lincolnshire and Rutland none may be required (though suspect that as you suggest a bit of Leicestershire may need to go into a Derbyshire seat)

Incidentally, Leciestershire presented no problem (nor did Derbyshire which only required a handful of wards being moved around in Mid/South and West Derbyshire). Nottinghamshire though is proving to be a nightmare because Nottingham needs some additions but can't accommodate all of West Bridgford, also ward sizes are awkward there. The North of the county is fine but I can't find a solution in Greater Nottingham (it may be i'll have to tear up Broxtowe). Nottinghamshire along with Staffordshire is proving to be the bane of my life (but only because I haven't chosen to tackle the West Riding yet..)

[Deleted]

Leicestershire

1. Loughborough - loses Sileby, the Wolds, gains Mountsorrel. Electorate 76,703, notionally marginal Conservative
2. NW Leicestershire - loses Apleby, Sence Valley. Electorate 75,157, notionally safe Conservative
3. Harborough - loses Fleckney, Lubbenham, Bosworth, gains Glen, Nevil. Electorate 75,396, notionally safe Conservative
4. Birstall & Blaby - Charnwood constituency minus Thurmanston, Wreake Villages, E Goscoate, Queniborough, Mountsorrel, plus Markfield, Ratby (H&B), Winstanley, Millfield, Ravenhurst, Enderby (Blaby). Electorate 75,015, notionally safe Conservative
5. Leicestershire South - swaps aforementioned Blaby wards for Harborough wards. Electorate 75,015, notionally safe Conservative
6. Hinckley - Bosworth seat plus Appleby, Sence Valley, minus Ratby, Markfield. Electorate 75,899, notionally safe Conservative
7. Melton & Syston - Melton district, plus the leftover eastern Charnwood wards, minus Nevil, Glen. Electorate 75,480, notionally safe Conservative
8. Leicester East - loses Belgrave, gains Thurmanston. Electorate 74,896, notionally marginal Labour
9. Leicester West - gains Belgrave. Electorate 75,903, notionally safe Labour
10. Leicester South - unchanged. Electorate 77,012, notionally safe Labour

Con 7 (-) Lab 3 (-)

[ricmk]

I feel like an amateur compared to most of you, but I've started with Lincs and Rutland as it's one of the more straightforward ones. I see Pete Whitehead's been doing the same and we are not that far apart.
I've preserved the Boston - South Holland boundary, at the cost of an orphan South Kesteven ward in South Holland.

Apart from that the main difference is that I have Sleaford facing SW to Grantham, rather than up to North Hykeham. Does anyone have a feel for which would be better in practice?

[ricmk]

Jan 7, 2021 0:26:52 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

imgur is over capacity so I guess everyone is busy uploading maps of their new boundaries. Anyway, I thought Northants would be tricky with an average seat size of 75,700 but managed a fairly neat job there:

Corby 75,856 (loses Irthlingborough x 2 and Stanwick to Wellingborough and Woodford to Kettering)
Kettering 74,474 (gains Woodfird from Corby)
Wellingborough 76,465 (gains wards from Corby as above, loses Bozeat, Great Doddington and Wollaston to South Northants and Finedon and Harrowden & Sywell (pt) to Daventry)
South Northants 76,905 (gains as above from Wellingborough and the two South Northants wards currently in Daventry. Loses the entire Northampton borough element to Northampton South plus Grange Park
Daventry 76,006 (loses the South Northants wards and gains Finedon and the part of Harrowden & Sywell not already included from Wellingborough
Northampton North 75,376 (along with reuniting split wards, gains Billing, Rectory Farm, Park and Riverside from South)
Northampton South 74,817 (gains the the Northampton wards currently in South Northants along with Grange Park from that district and constituency)

I've had a look at this, and I also have some local knowledge here as I worked in Northampton until recently.
I think this is as good as Northamptonshire is going to get.  I would rename the Northamptons as East - West as  that's really what's been created, and the 'East' areas in the South seat (Brackmills, Rushmills) are mostly industrial so the majority of the electors will be west of town.
The 2 South Northants wards in Daventry (Harpole & Grange, Heyfords & Bugbrooke) would be better staying in Daventry - although much closer to Northampton the M1 is such a barrier they do look to Daventry.  The parliamentary boundary is better than the local authority here. So although it looks like a win moving them back to South Northants I'm not so sure on the ground - but I can't find any way of making it work with them staying in Daventry.

The one problem I think is the orphan ward going into Kettering.  You've chosen Woodford, but there's no road or practical connection I can see, and indeed it's a narrow boundary so an ugly map.
There are 2 other options, Lyvedon (at least there is a country road between but it would make Corby boomerang-shaped) but I wonder about taking Corby Rural West instead?  This is 3 villages well separated from Corby, with the A427 connecting to Kettering constituency, with a B road to Desborough.  Not ideal but I think the pitchforks would be blunter.

So I think I'd propose an amendment that Woodford stays in Corby, but Rural West from Corby moves into Kettering in exchange. What do you think?

 

[emidsanorak]

I've managed to work out a 10 seat Leicester and Leicestershire that doesn't divide any villages and has only one seat crossing the City boundary. The key is having a Blaby coterminous with the District, treating Charnwood, Hinckley & Bosworth and NW Leics as a sub-sub-region for four seats, and Leicester, Harborough, Melton and Oadby & Wigston for five.

[Pete Whitehead]

Jan 8, 2021 2:35:46 GMT ricmk said:

Jan 7, 2021 0:26:52 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

imgur is over capacity so I guess everyone is busy uploading maps of their new boundaries. Anyway, I thought Northants would be tricky with an average seat size of 75,700 but managed a fairly neat job there:

Corby 75,856 (loses Irthlingborough x 2 and Stanwick to Wellingborough and Woodford to Kettering)
Kettering 74,474 (gains Woodfird from Corby)
Wellingborough 76,465 (gains wards from Corby as above, loses Bozeat, Great Doddington and Wollaston to South Northants and Finedon and Harrowden & Sywell (pt) to Daventry)
South Northants 76,905 (gains as above from Wellingborough and the two South Northants wards currently in Daventry. Loses the entire Northampton borough element to Northampton South plus Grange Park
Daventry 76,006 (loses the South Northants wards and gains Finedon and the part of Harrowden & Sywell not already included from Wellingborough
Northampton North 75,376 (along with reuniting split wards, gains Billing, Rectory Farm, Park and Riverside from South)
Northampton South 74,817 (gains the the Northampton wards currently in South Northants along with Grange Park from that district and constituency)

I've had a look at this, and I also have some local knowledge here as I worked in Northampton until recently.
I think this is as good as Northamptonshire is going to get.  I would rename the Northamptons as East - West as  that's really what's been created, and the 'East' areas in the South seat (Brackmills, Rushmills) are mostly industrial so the majority of the electors will be west of town.
The 2 South Northants wards in Daventry (Harpole & Grange, Heyfords & Bugbrooke) would be better staying in Daventry - although much closer to Northampton the M1 is such a barrier they do look to Daventry.  The parliamentary boundary is better than the local authority here. So although it looks like a win moving them back to South Northants I'm not so sure on the ground - but I can't find any way of making it work with them staying in Daventry.

The one problem I think is the orphan ward going into Kettering.  You've chosen Woodford, but there's no road or practical connection I can see, and indeed it's a narrow boundary so an ugly map.
There are 2 other options, Lyvedon (at least there is a country road between but it would make Corby boomerang-shaped) but I wonder about taking Corby Rural West instead?  This is 3 villages well separated from Corby, with the A427 connecting to Kettering constituency, with a B road to Desborough.  Not ideal but I think the pitchforks would be blunter.

So I think I'd propose an amendment that Woodford stays in Corby, but Rural West from Corby moves into Kettering in exchange. What do you think?

 

I found that while there was little choice elsewhere, there were three wards which could be transferred from Corby to Kettering as you say and I experimented with all three. I agree that Corby Rural West looks better on the map and has better connections. I decided against purely on the basis that it seems best to avoid splitting Corby borough itself but that isn't an especially compelling reason (especially as it won't any longer exist)

[YL]

Leicestershire with the city/county border not crossed:



Leicester city (numbers not on map)

12. Leicester North West (71,776).
13. Leicester East (75,970).
14. Leicester South (72,574).

Leicestershire CC area

15. North West Leicestershire (75,867). Gains Shepshed, loses Ibstock and Measham.
16. Bosworth (76,616). Gains Ibstock and Measham, loses eastern areas.
17. Market Harborough (76,097). Shifts a bit east.
18. Kirby Muxloe (75,986). The western suburbs of Leicester outside the city boundary, and eastern parts of Bosworth.
19. Loughborough (76,790). Loses Shepshed.
20. Melton Mowbray (75,955). Loses Rutland, gains Syston and Birstall.
21. South Leicestershire (76,878). Shifts a little SE, and gains South Wigston, which isn't ideal, but it is somewhat separated from Wigston proper.

Derbyshire (also in the plan, hence the numbers of the Leicestershire seats) is really easy: move Hilton and Hatton from South Derbyshire to Dales and South West Parishes ward of Amber Valley district from Dales, to "Mid Derbyshire" (which I will call Belper, because the other name is rubbish).