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Post by gerrardwinstanley on Jan 12, 2021 16:08:55 GMT
Yes, you could move half the electors in the boroughs between constituencies. Or you could just move 6500 electors from a ward which fades seamlessly into the present Islington South. I'm puzzled why you think your solution would be the better one. They may not take kindly to being paired with Hackney and there is no reason to do so. An Islington East constituency has existed before (although it did not include Finsbury as that was a separate borough at the time) as has an Islington South West constituency (close enough to my proposed Islington West). De Beauvior Town is very different from Hackney 'proper'. It's, probably, the most exclusive area in the borough, and as East Anglian Lefty alludes to, De Beauvior stretches between Islington and Hackney. It's not as if you cross the Southgate Road and everything changes. Why wouldn't they take kindly to it? Arguably, De Beauviour is a good deal similar to Angel that the latter is to the Caledonian Road or Market Estate, for example. |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Jan 12, 2021 16:27:45 GMT
Another non-split East:  1 Upminster 70809 Yes 2 Romford 73612 Yes 3 Hornchurch 73655 Yes 4 Barking and Dagenham 76589 Yes 5 Ilford South 75517 Yes 6 Ilford North 74684 Yes 7 Chingford and Woodford 75677 Yes 8 Walthamstow 70867 Yes 9 Leyton and Wanstead 71330 Yes 10 East Ham 70902 Yes 11 West Ham 70841 Yes 12 London Docklands 75806 Yes 13 Stepney 75958 Yes 14 Bethnal Green and Bow 74648 Yes The Essex boroughs minus Newham bit is very similar to East Anglian Lefty 's, but my Hornchurch is Hornchurchier. The Newham and Tower Hamlets bit is a bit less radical with the structure of constituencies, but uses most of the electoral range to achieve this. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 12, 2021 17:09:31 GMT
Yes, you could move half the electors in the boroughs between constituencies. Or you could just move 6500 electors from a ward which fades seamlessly into the present Islington South. I'm puzzled why you think your solution would be the better one. They may not take kindly to being paired with Hackney and there is no reason to do so. An Islington East constituency has existed before (although it did not include Finsbury as that was a separate borough at the time) as has an Islington South West constituency (close enough to my proposed Islington West). Last time that the Islington East or Islington South West constituencies existed was 1974, when most of the present electorate of Islington wasn't even born. I rather doubt there's any nostalgia for those boundaries, or any residual feeling that people living to the east of Southgate Road are a tribe apart they want nothing to do with. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 12, 2021 17:13:45 GMT
Another non-split East: 1 Upminster 70809 Yes 2 Romford 73612 Yes 3 Hornchurch 73655 Yes 4 Barking and Dagenham 76589 Yes 5 Ilford South 75517 Yes 6 Ilford North 74684 Yes 7 Chingford and Woodford 75677 Yes 8 Walthamstow 70867 Yes 9 Leyton and Wanstead 71330 Yes 10 East Ham 70902 Yes 11 West Ham 70841 Yes 12 London Docklands 75806 Yes 13 Stepney 75958 Yes 14 Bethnal Green and Bow 74648 Yes The Essex boroughs minus Newham bit is very similar to East Anglian Lefty 's, but my Hornchurch is Hornchurchier. The Newham and Tower Hamlets bit is a bit less radical with the structure of constituencies, but uses most of the electoral range to achieve this. Your Havering is definitely better than mine. I don't suppose you'd be able to estimate how many electors you move in Newham and Tower Hamlets? Eyeballing it, I'm not 100% convinced your version is less radical (which is not to say it's at all unreasonable.) |
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Post by greenhert on Jan 12, 2021 17:37:05 GMT
Another non-split East: 1 Upminster 70809 Yes 2 Romford 73612 Yes 3 Hornchurch 73655 Yes 4 Barking and Dagenham 76589 Yes 5 Ilford South 75517 Yes 6 Ilford North 74684 Yes 7 Chingford and Woodford 75677 Yes 8 Walthamstow 70867 Yes 9 Leyton and Wanstead 71330 Yes 10 East Ham 70902 Yes 11 West Ham 70841 Yes 12 London Docklands 75806 Yes 13 Stepney 75958 Yes 14 Bethnal Green and Bow 74648 Yes The Essex boroughs minus Newham bit is very similar to East Anglian Lefty 's, but my Hornchurch is Hornchurchier. The Newham and Tower Hamlets bit is a bit less radical with the structure of constituencies, but uses most of the electoral range to achieve this. My plan for North East London was very similar. Here are the four key differences: 1. You only need to cross the Barking & Dagenham/Havering border once. I resolved this by adding Emerson Park to Romford (since Emerson Park is more attached to Romford than anywhere else in Havering) and removing Havering-atte-Bower. I then added this ward to Hornchurch & Upminster and removed the Hornchurch wards, and then added Rainham & Wennington, to simply make that constituency Upminster. Subsequently, the Dagenham & Rainham constituency becomes Dagenham & Hornchurch and the constituency of Barking is redrawn to stretch to Chadwell Heath. 2. I renamed Ilford South Ilford, Ilford North Hainault, and London Docklands Poplar & Canning Town. 3. I needed to add Lansbury ward to Stepney to get both Stepney and Poplar & Canning Town into quota. 4. Leyton & Wanstead should add Lea Bridge, not South Woodford, which instead should be added to the redrawn Chingford & Woodford Green so it becomes Chingford & Woodford. Walthamstow then adds Hale End & Highams Park ward to replace Lea Bridge. |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Jan 12, 2021 17:39:52 GMT
Another non-split East: 1 Upminster 70809 Yes 2 Romford 73612 Yes 3 Hornchurch 73655 Yes 4 Barking and Dagenham 76589 Yes 5 Ilford South 75517 Yes 6 Ilford North 74684 Yes 7 Chingford and Woodford 75677 Yes 8 Walthamstow 70867 Yes 9 Leyton and Wanstead 71330 Yes 10 East Ham 70902 Yes 11 West Ham 70841 Yes 12 London Docklands 75806 Yes 13 Stepney 75958 Yes 14 Bethnal Green and Bow 74648 Yes The Essex boroughs minus Newham bit is very similar to East Anglian Lefty 's, but my Hornchurch is Hornchurchier. The Newham and Tower Hamlets bit is a bit less radical with the structure of constituencies, but uses most of the electoral range to achieve this. Your Havering is definitely better than mine. I don't suppose you'd be able to estimate how many electors you move in Newham and Tower Hamlets? Eyeballing it, I'm not 100% convinced your version is less radical (which is not to say it's at all unreasonable.) If I'm working it out right (and this is literally me scribbling on a piece of paper), it's: LONDON DOCKLANDS (new constituency) 75806 From shrinking West Ham 27047 From shrinking East Ham 17422 From P&L 31337 BG&B TO P&L/STEPNEY 16417 Stepney Green 7802 St Dunstans 8615 P&L/STEPNEY TO BG&B 2015 Whitechapel (part) 2015 TOTAL MOVING 94238 |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 12, 2021 17:47:28 GMT
Another non-split East: 1 Upminster 70809 Yes 2 Romford 73612 Yes 3 Hornchurch 73655 Yes 4 Barking and Dagenham 76589 Yes 5 Ilford South 75517 Yes 6 Ilford North 74684 Yes 7 Chingford and Woodford 75677 Yes 8 Walthamstow 70867 Yes 9 Leyton and Wanstead 71330 Yes 10 East Ham 70902 Yes 11 West Ham 70841 Yes 12 London Docklands 75806 Yes 13 Stepney 75958 Yes 14 Bethnal Green and Bow 74648 Yes The Essex boroughs minus Newham bit is very similar to East Anglian Lefty 's, but my Hornchurch is Hornchurchier. The Newham and Tower Hamlets bit is a bit less radical with the structure of constituencies, but uses most of the electoral range to achieve this. My plan for North East London was very similar. Here are the four key differences: 1. You only need to cross the Barking & Dagenham/Havering border once. I resolved this by adding Emerson Park to Romford (since Emerson Park is more attached to Romford than anywhere else in Havering) and removing Havering-atte-Bower. I then added this ward to Hornchurch & Upminster and removed the Hornchurch wards, and then added Rainham & Wennington, to simply make that constituency Upminster. Subsequently, the Dagenham & Rainham constituency becomes Dagenham & Hornchurch and the constituency of Barking is redrawn to stretch to Chadwell Heath. 2. I renamed Ilford South Ilford, Ilford North Hainault, and London Docklands Poplar & Canning Town. 3. I needed to add Lansbury ward to Stepney to get both Stepney and Poplar & Canning Town into quota. 4. Leyton & Wanstead should add Lea Bridge, not South Woodford, which instead should be added to the redrawn Chingford & Woodford Green so it becomes Chingford & Woodford. Walthamstow then adds Hale End & Highams Park ward to replace Lea Bridge. I agree with you strongly on point 4. I think some people are using the minimal change principle here, but Leabridge was always part of Leyton and Hale End is part of Walthamstow. This also reunites all of Woodford in the one seat. I don't get your Havering Park thing though, unless you mean that you are literally just removing the village of Havering-atte-Bower (which would presumably make little difference to the numbers). Most of that ward's population is towards the west in Collier Row and Chase Cross. It's an integral part of Romford (far more so than Emerson Park) and has weak links even to Harold Hill, never mind Upminster itself |
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Post by greenhert on Jan 12, 2021 17:50:18 GMT
Enfield-Haringey-Hackney can thus be linked like this:
1. Enfield North (76,824). Adds Ponders End.
2. Enfield Southgate (75,002). Adds Bush Hill Park.
3. Edmonton & Tottenham North (approx. 76,600). Succeeds Edmonton. Loses Ponders End and Bush Hill Park in Enfield, adds Northumberland Park, Tottenham Hale and White Hart Lane wards and half of Bruce Grove ward.
4. Hornsey & Wood Green (75,117). Loses Stroud Green ward.
5. Tottenham South & Stamford Hill (approx. 76,800). Succeeds Tottenham. Contains the Haringey wards of Bruce Grove (half), Harringay, St Ann's, Seven Sisters, Stroud Green, Tottenham Green and West Green, and the Hackney wards of Springfield, Stamford Hill West and Woodberry Down.
6. Hackney Central (74,131). Succeeds Hackney North & Stoke Newington. Loses Springfield, Stamford Hill West and Woodberry Down wards and adds Hackney Central ward.
7. Hackney South & Shoreditch (75,007). Loses Hackney Central ward.
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Post by kevinlarkin on Jan 12, 2021 17:50:35 GMT
Camden realistically has to be paired with Barnet, since there is no combination of wards in Camden that will bisect it into two allowable constituencies. I'd believed this, but it is in fact wrong. The solution isn't even bad, ugly, or counterintuitive:  1 Hampstead 69849 Yes 2 Holborn and St Pancras 70449 Yes Lewis Baston suggested this solution a few days ago. It is certainly the best of the twelve possible pairs of contiguous combinations*. Here are the others:  * as determined by my new PlanFinder TM app. There are always more possible plans than you think. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 12, 2021 17:50:38 GMT
OK, using the same working my version would appear to shift 100933 electors, so you are right that your version is slightly less disruptive but it's a reasonably marginal difference - it's basically a question of whether you want to keep the basic orientation of West Ham or the basic orientation of Poplar & Limehouse.
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Jan 12, 2021 17:52:02 GMT
1. You only need to cross the Barking & Dagenham/Havering border once. I resolved this by adding Emerson Park to Romford (since Emerson Park is more attached to Romford than anywhere else in Havering) and removing Havering-atte-Bower. I then added this ward to Hornchurch & Upminster and removed the Hornchurch wards, and then added Rainham & Wennington, to simply make that constituency Upminster. Subsequently, the Dagenham & Rainham constituency becomes Dagenham & Hornchurch and the constituency of Barking is redrawn to stretch to Chadwell Heath. Quite which wards are in your Barking constituency? Anything I can see that fits this description is over the upper limit. |
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Post by greenhert on Jan 12, 2021 18:21:31 GMT
Bexley-Bromley-Croydon (only one ward split needed, primarily due to the size of Bromley's wards):
1. Erith & Crayford (74,032). Succeeds Erith & Thamesmead. Contains the Bexley wards of Barnehurst, Belvedere, Crayford, Erith, Northumberland Heath, Slade Green & North End, Thamesmead East, and West Heath.
2. Bexleyheath (70,311). Succeeds Old Bexley & Sidcup in practice. Contains the wards of Bexleyheath, Blackden & Lamorbey, Blendon & Penthill, Crook Log, East Whickham, and Falconwood & Welling.
3. Chislehurst & Sidcup (69,760). Succeeds Bromley & Chislehurst. Contains the Bromley wards of Chislehurst, Cray Valley West, Mottingham & Chislehurst North, and Plaistow & Sundridge, and the Bexley wards of Longlands, St Mary & St James, and Sidcup.
4. Orpington (approx. 75,500). Adds part of Keston & Bromley Common.
5. Beckenham & Bromley (approx. 74,600). Succeeds Beckenham. Adds Bickley and Bromley Town, and loses Kelsey & Eden Park and part of Keston & Bromley Common.
6. Crystal Palace (77,058). New seat. Contains the Bromley wards of Clock House, Crystal Palace, Kelsey & Eden Park, and Penge & Cator, and the Croydon wards of Crystal Palace & Upper Norwood, South Norwood and Thornton Heath.
7. Croydon East (74,250). Succeeds Croydon Central. Contains the wards of Addiscombe East, Addiscombe West, New Addington North, New Addington South, Park Hill & Whitgift, Selsdon & Addington Village, Shirley North, Shirley South, and Woodside.
8. Croydon South (74,718). Contains the wards of Coulsdon Town, Kenley, Old Coulsdon, Purley & Woodcote, Purley Oaks & Riddlesdown, Sanderstead, Selsdon Vale & Forestdale, and South Croydon.
9. Croydon West (73,323). Succeeds Croydon North. Contains the wards of Bensham Manor, Broad Green, Fairfield, Norbury Park, Norbury & Pollards Hill, Selhurst, Waddon, and West Thornton.
(Bexleyheath & Crayford disappears)
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Post by greenhert on Jan 12, 2021 18:23:30 GMT
1. You only need to cross the Barking & Dagenham/Havering border once. I resolved this by adding Emerson Park to Romford (since Emerson Park is more attached to Romford than anywhere else in Havering) and removing Havering-atte-Bower. I then added this ward to Hornchurch & Upminster and removed the Hornchurch wards, and then added Rainham & Wennington, to simply make that constituency Upminster. Subsequently, the Dagenham & Rainham constituency becomes Dagenham & Hornchurch and the constituency of Barking is redrawn to stretch to Chadwell Heath. Quite which wards are in your Barking constituency? Anything I can see that fits this description is over the upper limit. The wards I have placed into my version of Barking are: Abbey, Alibon, Chadwell Heath, Eastbury, Gascoigne, Heath, Longbridge, Mayesbrook, Parsloes, Valence, and Whalebrook. Electorate: 76,488. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 12, 2021 18:53:41 GMT
Quite which wards are in your Barking constituency? Anything I can see that fits this description is over the upper limit. The wards I have placed into my version of Barking are: Abbey, Alibon, Chadwell Heath, Eastbury, Gascoigne, Heath, Longbridge, Mayesbrook, Parsloes, Valence, and Whalebrook. Electorate: 76,488. What's happened to Thames? |
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Post by greenhert on Jan 12, 2021 19:02:16 GMT
The wards I have placed into my version of Barking are: Abbey, Alibon, Chadwell Heath, Eastbury, Gascoigne, Heath, Longbridge, Mayesbrook, Parsloes, Valence, and Whalebrook. Electorate: 76,488. What's happened to Thames? Moved to Dagenham & Hornchurch. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 12, 2021 19:06:04 GMT
My plan for North East London was very similar. Here are the four key differences: 1. You only need to cross the Barking & Dagenham/Havering border once. I resolved this by adding Emerson Park to Romford (since Emerson Park is more attached to Romford than anywhere else in Havering) and removing Havering-atte-Bower. I then added this ward to Hornchurch & Upminster and removed the Hornchurch wards, and then added Rainham & Wennington, to simply make that constituency Upminster. Subsequently, the Dagenham & Rainham constituency becomes Dagenham & Hornchurch and the constituency of Barking is redrawn to stretch to Chadwell Heath. 2. I renamed Ilford South Ilford, Ilford North Hainault, and London Docklands Poplar & Canning Town. 3. I needed to add Lansbury ward to Stepney to get both Stepney and Poplar & Canning Town into quota. 4. Leyton & Wanstead should add Lea Bridge, not South Woodford, which instead should be added to the redrawn Chingford & Woodford Green so it becomes Chingford & Woodford. Walthamstow then adds Hale End & Highams Park ward to replace Lea Bridge. I agree with you strongly on point 4. I think some people are using the minimal change principle here, but Leabridge was always part of Leyton and Hale End is part of Walthamstow. This also reunites all of Woodford in the one seat. I don't get your Havering Park thing though, unless you mean that you are literally just removing the village of Havering-atte-Bower (which would presumably make little difference to the numbers). Most of that ward's population is towards the west in Collier Row and Chase Cross. It's an integral part of Romford (far more so than Emerson Park) and has weak links even to Harold Hill, never mind Upminster itself Moving Havering Park is unnecessary anyway. The electorates of Havering Park and Emerson Park are almost identical. |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Jan 12, 2021 19:38:24 GMT
Quite which wards are in your Barking constituency? Anything I can see that fits this description is over the upper limit. The wards I have placed into my version of Barking are: Abbey, Alibon, Chadwell Heath, Eastbury, Gascoigne, Heath, Longbridge, Mayesbrook, Parsloes, Valence, and Whalebrook. Electorate: 76,488. That's ingenious and deserves a map. It's pressing a few "shock" buttons for me (particularly detaching Barking from the River), and I've ignored your Havering/Emerson Park swap (which, as well as being unnecessary, spoils your map's best point, no change to Romford):  1 Upminster 70809 Yes 2 Romford 73612 Yes 3 Hornchurch 73655 Yes 4 Barking and Dagenham 76589 Yes |
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Post by greenhert on Jan 12, 2021 19:46:35 GMT
Barnet and Brent (since Camden can indeed stand alone this time):
1. Willesden (71,749). Succeeds Brent Central and resembles the old Brent East seat. Loses Harlesden, Stonebridge, Tokyngton and Welsh Harp wards and gains Brondesbury Park, Kilburn, and Queens Park wards (i.e. the "Kilburn" of the current Hampstead & Kilburn).
2. Wembley (70,807). New seat. Contains the Brent wards of Alperton, Harlesden, Northwick Park, Stonebridge, Sudbury, Tokyngton, and Wembley Central. Resembles the old Brent South seat.
3. Queensbury & Golders Green (75,101). Succeeds Brent North. Loses Alperton, Northwick Park, Sudbury, and Wembley Central wards in Brent, and gains the Brent ward of Welsh Harp and the Barnet wards of Golders Green and West Hendon.
4. Hendon (70,986). Loses West Hendon ward.
5. Finchley (approx. 73,300). Succeeds Finchley & Golders Green. Loses Golders Green ward and gains part of Coppetts ward.
6. Chipping Barnet (approx. 70,000) Loses part of Coppetts ward.
This allows Harrow and Hillingdon to remain paired together with all their respective constituencies intact.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 12, 2021 20:10:48 GMT
The wards I have placed into my version of Barking are: Abbey, Alibon, Chadwell Heath, Eastbury, Gascoigne, Heath, Longbridge, Mayesbrook, Parsloes, Valence, and Whalebrook. Electorate: 76,488. That's ingenious and deserves a map. It's pressing a few "shock" buttons for me (particularly detaching Barking from the River), and I've ignored your Havering/Emerson Park swap (which, as well as being unnecessary, spoils your map's best point, no change to Romford): 1 Upminster 70809 Yes 2 Romford 73612 Yes 3 Hornchurch 73655 Yes 4 Barking and Dagenham 76589 Yes I thought 'Havering Outer' was the point of the exercise.. |
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Post by martinwhelton on Jan 12, 2021 22:12:04 GMT
Barnet and Brent (since Camden can indeed stand alone this time): 1. Willesden (71,749). Succeeds Brent Central and resembles the old Brent East seat. Loses Harlesden, Stonebridge, Tokyngton and Welsh Harp wards and gains Brondesbury Park, Kilburn, and Queens Park wards (i.e. the "Kilburn" of the current Hampstead & Kilburn). 2. Wembley (70,807). New seat. Contains the Brent wards of Alperton, Harlesden, Northwick Park, Stonebridge, Sudbury, Tokyngton, and Wembley Central. Resembles the old Brent South seat. 3. Queensbury & Golders Green (75,101). Succeeds Brent North. Loses Alperton, Northwick Park, Sudbury, and Wembley Central wards in Brent, and gains the Brent ward of Welsh Harp and the Barnet wards of Golders Green and West Hendon. 4. Hendon (70,986). Loses West Hendon ward. 5. Finchley (approx. 73,300). Succeeds Finchley & Golders Green. Loses Golders Green ward and gains part of Coppetts ward. 6. Chipping Barnet (approx. 70,000) Loses part of Coppetts ward. This allows Harrow and Hillingdon to remain paired together with all their respective constituencies intact. All three have new ward boundaries which will be used for the review. With all three having two-member wards it will make the process far easier. Figures for the new wards are in the process of being calculated. Barnet: s3-eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/lgbce/Reviews/Greater%20London/Barnet/Final%20Recs/Barnet%20Final%20Recs%20Report%20web.pdfBrent: s3-eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/lgbce/Reviews/Greater%20London/Brent/Final%20Recs/Brent-finalrecsreport-web.pdfCamden: s3-eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/lgbce/Reviews/Greater%20London/Camden/Final%20Recs/Camden%20Final%20Recommendations%20web_0.pdf |
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