J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,840 
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jan 5, 2021 13:54:08 GMT
2023 Review - London
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Post by greenhert on Jan 5, 2021 15:00:44 GMT
Quotas per borough:
Barking & Dagenham: 1.65
Barnet: 3.20
Bexley: 2.34
Brent: 2.67
Bromley: 3.24
Camden: 1.91
City of London: 0.09
Croydon: 3.46
Ealing: 2.91
Enfield: 2.70
Greenwich: 2.38
Hackney: 2.31
Hammersmith & Fulham: 1.58
Haringey: 2.20
Harrow: 2.29
Havering: 2.48
Hillingdon: 2.62
Hounslow: 2.30
Islington: 1.95
Kensington & Chelsea: 1.15
Kingston-upon-Thames: 1.51
Lambeth: 2.96
Lewisham: 2.59
Merton: 1.88
Newham: 2.54
Redbridge: 2.61
Richmond-upon-Thames: 1.86
Southwark: 2.84
Sutton: 1.96
Tower Hamlets: 2.48
Waltham Forest: 2.29
Wandsworth: 3.02
Westminster: 1.64
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 5, 2021 15:10:39 GMT
I think this is the first review in over a century which is allocating more seats to London than there are previously. (With a small caveat that 1944 didn't touch the County of London, and doesn't count as a proper review)
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Jan 5, 2021 15:33:25 GMT
Some playing around with possible pairings (and South London mega-groups):
Havering+B&D = 4.13
Redbridge+WF = 4.90
Newham+TH = 5.02
Haringey+Enfield = 4.90
Hackney+City+Westminster = 4.04
Barnet+Brent = 5.87
Harrow+Hillingdon = 4.91
K&C+H&F+Hounslow = 5.03
Richmond+Kingston+Merton+Croydon+Bromley = 11.95
Southwark+Lewisham+Greenwich+Bexley = 10.15
Islington, Camden (if there is some combination of wards that bisects it nearly perfectly), Ealing, Wandsworth, Sutton, and Lambeth are all theoretically close enough to integer numbers of constituencies.
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Post by michaelarden on Jan 5, 2021 15:37:13 GMT
Quotas per borough: Barking & Dagenham: 1.65 Barnet: 3.20 Bexley: 2.34 Brent: 2.67 Bromley: 3.24 Camden: 1.91 City of London: 0.09 Croydon: 3.46 Ealing: 2.91 Enfield: 2.70 Greenwich: 2.38 Hackney: 2.31 Hammersmith & Fulham: 1.58 Haringey: 2.20 Harrow: 2.29 Havering: 2.48 Hillingdon: 2.62 Hounslow: 2.30 Islington: 1.95 Kensington & Chelsea: 1.15 Kingston-upon-Thames: 1.51 Lambeth: 2.96 Lewisham: 2.59 Merton: 1.88 Newham: 2.54 Redbridge: 2.61 Richmond-upon-Thames: 1.86 Southwark: 2.84 Sutton: 1.96 Tower Hamlets: 2.48 Waltham Forest: 2.29 Wandsworth: 3.02 Westminster: 1.64 That's interesting - some obvious pairs of borough there - TH and Newham for example but more that are problematic - looks like clusters of Boroughs will be needed and they'll be some interesting new constituencies as a result. |
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Post by greenhert on Jan 5, 2021 15:44:16 GMT
Some playing around with possible pairings (and South London mega-groups): Havering+B&D = 4.13 Redbridge+WF = 4.90 Newham+TH = 5.02 Haringey+Enfield = 4.90 Hackney+City+Westminster = 4.04 Barnet+Brent = 5.87 Harrow+Hillingdon = 4.91 K&C+H&F+Hounslow = 5.03 Richmond+Kingston+Merton+Croydon+Bromley = 11.95 Southwark+Lewisham+Greenwich+Bexley = 10.15 Islington, Camden (if there is some combination of wards that bisects it nearly perfectly), Ealing, Wandsworth, Sutton, and Lambeth are all theoretically close enough to integer numbers of constituencies. Camden realistically has to be paired with Barnet, since there is no combination of wards in Camden that will bisect it into two allowable constituencies. Also, look at the transport links before pairing boroughs! |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 5, 2021 15:49:57 GMT
Some playing around with possible pairings (and South London mega-groups): Havering+B&D = 4.13 Redbridge+WF = 4.90 Newham+TH = 5.02 Haringey+Enfield = 4.90 Hackney+City+Westminster = 4.04Barnet+Brent = 5.87 Harrow+Hillingdon = 4.91 K&C+H&F+Hounslow = 5.03 Richmond+Kingston+Merton+Croydon+Bromley = 11.95 Southwark+Lewisham+Greenwich+Bexley = 10.15 Islington, Camden (if there is some combination of wards that bisects it nearly perfectly), Ealing, Wandsworth, Sutton, and Lambeth are all theoretically close enough to integer numbers of constituencies. You can fuck right off with that! - "City of London, Westminster South & Shoreditch". No thanks |
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Post by michaelarden on Jan 5, 2021 15:59:06 GMT
Some playing around with possible pairings (and South London mega-groups): Havering+B&D = 4.13 Redbridge+WF = 4.90 Newham+TH = 5.02 Haringey+Enfield = 4.90 Hackney+City+Westminster = 4.04Barnet+Brent = 5.87 Harrow+Hillingdon = 4.91 K&C+H&F+Hounslow = 5.03 Richmond+Kingston+Merton+Croydon+Bromley = 11.95 Southwark+Lewisham+Greenwich+Bexley = 10.15 Islington, Camden (if there is some combination of wards that bisects it nearly perfectly), Ealing, Wandsworth, Sutton, and Lambeth are all theoretically close enough to integer numbers of constituencies. You can fuck right off with that! - "City of London, Westminster South & Shoreditch". No thanks If you paired Westminster with the City and Tower Hamlets you could have a City of London and Canary Wharf seat instead... |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 5, 2021 15:59:59 GMT
I think 'pairing' of boroughs is a bit of a mugs game anyway with this system. That worked OK when you were allocating seats under the old system and had a much wider range of possible electorates but with the constraints imposed by the new rules I'd more or less treat London as one entity and just put together seats that meet the criteria and have some semblance of a natural community. Obviously you would have regard to borough boundaries so not go creating seats containing parts of four boroughs or anything like that, but really when you talk about "Richmond+Kingston+Merton+Croydon+Bromley" you may just as well talk about "Richmond+Kingston+Merton+Croydon+Bromley+Southwark+Lewisham+Greenwich+Bexley"... (etc)
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Jan 5, 2021 16:01:21 GMT
Some playing around with possible pairings (and South London mega-groups): Havering+B&D = 4.13 Redbridge+WF = 4.90 Newham+TH = 5.02 Haringey+Enfield = 4.90 Hackney+City+Westminster = 4.04Barnet+Brent = 5.87 Harrow+Hillingdon = 4.91 K&C+H&F+Hounslow = 5.03 Richmond+Kingston+Merton+Croydon+Bromley = 11.95 Southwark+Lewisham+Greenwich+Bexley = 10.15 Islington, Camden (if there is some combination of wards that bisects it nearly perfectly), Ealing, Wandsworth, Sutton, and Lambeth are all theoretically close enough to integer numbers of constituencies. You can fuck right off with that! - "City of London, Westminster South & Shoreditch". No thanks Lol. Definitely one to draw up in the Pitchfork Bait thread then! |
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Post by kevinlarkin on Jan 5, 2021 16:03:01 GMT
Looking at the ward data Lewisham and Enfield have the new 2022 ward boundaries. The problem with Enfield is there are no ward names or codes given, so not possible to tell which number goes with which ward.  |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 5, 2021 16:06:33 GMT
Looking at the ward data Lewisham and Enfield have the new 2022 ward boundaries. The problem with Enfield is there are no ward names or codes given, so not possible to tell which number goes with which ward. History repeating itself. Enfield caused problems with this process 40 years ago.. perhaps we should just disenfranchise it |
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Post by islington on Jan 5, 2021 16:22:21 GMT
Quotas per borough: Barking & Dagenham: 1.65 Barnet: 3.20 Bexley: 2.34 Brent: 2.67 Bromley: 3.24 Camden: 1.91 City of London: 0.09 Croydon: 3.46 Ealing: 2.91 Enfield: 2.70 Greenwich: 2.38 Hackney: 2.31 Hammersmith & Fulham: 1.58 Haringey: 2.20 Harrow: 2.29 Havering: 2.48 Hillingdon: 2.62 Hounslow: 2.30 Islington: 1.95 Kensington & Chelsea: 1.15 Kingston-upon-Thames: 1.51 Lambeth: 2.96 Lewisham: 2.59 Merton: 1.88 Newham: 2.54 Redbridge: 2.61 Richmond-upon-Thames: 1.86 Southwark: 2.84 Sutton: 1.96 Tower Hamlets: 2.48 Waltham Forest: 2.29 Wandsworth: 3.02 Westminster: 1.64 Just as a first stab (and deliberately not having looked at the other suggestions, so apols for any duplication) -
B&D, Havering, Redbridge, WF = 9.03 = 9 Barnet, Harrow, Hillingdon (not the most natural of groupings) = 8.11 = 8 Bexley, Greenwich, Lewisham, Southwark = 10.15 = 10
Brent, City, H&F, K&C, Westminster = 7.13 = 7 Bromley, Croydon, Kingston, Merton = 10.09 = 10 Camden, Enfield, Hackney, Haringey = 9.12 = 9 Ealing = 2.91 = 3 Hounslow, Richmond = 4.16 = 4 Islington = 1.95 = 2 Lambeth = 2.96 = 3 Newham, TH = 5.02 = 5 Sutton = 1.96 = 2 Wandsworth = 3.02 = 3
There's some flexibility here: e.g. if Camden could be treated alone for 2 seats (unlikely), then the rest of its group would have 7.21 = 7. Or, in the same area, if Islington can't easily be divided into 2 then it could be added to this group for 11.07 = 11.
Elsewhere, Ealing is small for 3 and Hounslow/Richmond large for 4 so they might be merged, giving 7.07 = 7.
Edited to add: Or, as someone suggested above, split the E London grouping. Redbridge/WF at 4.90 should be all right, but I worry that B&D/Havering at 4.13 = 4 might be rather tight.
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ilerda
Conservative
Posts: 1,112
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Post by ilerda on Jan 5, 2021 16:44:58 GMT
Lambeth should very easily fit 3 seats, however in what I would consider the optimal scheme the southernmost constituency (Streatham and West Norwood) is about 1,100 electors too small. Will the BCE allow for a small ward split in Tulse Hill (sensible) or insist on crossing a borough boundary to maintain whole wards (idiotic)?
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Post by Peter Wilkinson on Jan 5, 2021 19:10:24 GMT
Looking at the ward data Lewisham and Enfield have the new 2022 ward boundaries. The problem with Enfield is there are no ward names or codes given, so not possible to tell which number goes with which ward.
I'm not particularly good at jigsaw puzzles, but I'd been keeping an eye on the Enfield ward review - and, while I have only done some cursory checks on the numbers, the following looks plausible (the row numbers are as in Table 4 of the Excel spreadsheet, ward names in alphabetical order within each constituency block, and where a ward crosses one or more existing constituency boundaries - as about half of them do - it gets an entry for each constituency):
| Row number | Ward | Constituency
| | 2082 | Bowes | Edmonton | | 2083 | Brimsdown | Edmonton | | 2084 | Bush Hill Park
| Edmonton | | 2085 | Carterhatch | Edmonton | | 2086 | Edmonton Green
| Edmonton | | 2087 | Grange Park
| Edmonton | | 2088 | Haselbury | Edmonton | | 2089 | Highfield | Edmonton | | 2090 | Jubilee | Edmonton | | 2091 | Lower Edmonton
| Edmonton | | 2092 | Ponders End
| Edmonton | | 2093 | Southbury | Edmonton | | 2094 | Upper Edmonton
| Edmonton | | 2095 | Winchmore Hill
| Edmonton | 2124
| Brimsdown
| Enfield North
| | 2125 | Bullsmoor | Enfield North | | 2126 | Carterhatch | Enfield North | | 2127 | Enfield Lock
| Enfield North | | 2128 | Oakwood | Enfield North | | 2129 | Ponders End
| Enfield North | | 2130 | Ridgeway | Enfield North | | 2131 | Southbury | Enfield North | | 2132 | Town | Enfield North | | 2133 | Whitewebbs | Enfield North | | 2134 | Arnos Grove
| Enfield, Southgate
| | 2135 | Bowes | Enfield, Southgate | | 2136 | Bush Hill Park
| Enfield, Southgate | 2137
| Cockfosters | Enfield, Southgate | | 2138 | Grange Park
| Enfield, Southgate | | 2139 | Highfield | Enfield, Southgate | | 2140 | New Southgate
| Enfield, Southgate | | 2141 | Oakwood | Enfield, Southgate | | 2142 | Palmers Green
| Enfield, Southgate | | 2143 | Ridgeway | Enfield, Southgate | | 2144 | Southgate | Enfield, Southgate | | 2145 | Town | Enfield, Southgate | | 2146 | Winchmore Hill
| Enfield, Southgate |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 6, 2021 10:37:55 GMT
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 6, 2021 14:16:42 GMT
There are some mathematically possible smaller groupings which haven't been suggested yet: - Hounslow + H&F: 3.88
- Westminster, City, KC: 2.88
- Hackney, Enfield, Haringey: 7.24
For the rest of north London, you can use pairings that have already been suggested in this thread. Some of those pairings are mathematically very tight, so it's quite possible they won't work in practice, but I could see the Commission being willing to give it a try if it saved them an avalanche of letters from Outraged of Belgravia about being placed in a constituency with Hoxton. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 6, 2021 14:47:24 GMT
There are some mathematically possible smaller groupings which haven't been suggested yet: - Hounslow + H&F: 3.88
- Westminster, City, KC: 2.88
- Hackney, Enfield, Haringey: 7.24
For the rest of north London, you can use pairings that have already been suggested in this thread. Some of those pairings are mathematically very tight, so it's quite possible they won't work in practice, but I could see the Commission being willing to give it a try if it saved them an avalanche of letters from Outraged of Belgravia about being placed in a constituency with Hoxton. Not suggested here but I did suggest it on another thread vote-2012.proboards.com/post/1042616/thread |
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Post by greenhert on Jan 6, 2021 15:06:50 GMT
You do not need to include Hackney in a group with Enfield and Haringey in this context.
For the Enfield-Haringey pairing:
Remove the Stroud Green ward from Hornsey & Wood Green.
Add the Stroud Green ward to Tottenham and remove the old Northumberland Park and White Hart Lane wards from it.
Add Northumberland Park and White Hart Lane wards to Edmonton, and remove the area around Bush Hill Park from it.
Add area around Bush Hill Park and Southbury to Enfield Southgate.
Add Cockfosters and Oakwood wards to Enfield North and remove Southbury from it.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 6, 2021 17:13:05 GMT
Yes, but the point is that if you don't put Hackney with Enfield and Haringey then it has to go somewhere else, and the most likely place is with Westminster and the City, which would be contentious for obvious reasons. I guess as Camden is unlikely to be able to stand alone you could conceivably put it with Islington and Camden?
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