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Post by johnloony on Jun 30, 2023 14:25:54 GMT
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Post by johnloony on Jun 30, 2023 14:26:46 GMT
The most drastic change in N.I. seems to be the expansion of Belfast South to include chunks of Mid Down. I guess a net good for the Unionists.
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Post by johnloony on Jun 30, 2023 14:27:38 GMT
I guess the extra 17,000 electors for Brecon, Radnor & Cwm-Tawe will make it a 3-way marginal with Labour competitive again.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jun 30, 2023 14:43:28 GMT
The most drastic change in N.I. seems to be the expansion of Belfast South to include chunks of Mid Down. I guess a net good for the Unionists. The seat gains about 10,000 electors outside Belfast who primarily vote unionist, but loses about 8,000 votes in Belfast who also primarily vote unionist. It's a difference, but not a huge one. |
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,450
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jun 30, 2023 14:54:14 GMT
A total of £137.60 for the full set including all the maps. The perfect Christmas present! For oneself.  some people come from whole families of psephologists |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jun 30, 2023 15:41:17 GMT
I guess the extra 17,000 electors for Brecon, Radnor & Cwm-Tawe will make it a 3-way marginal with Labour competitive again. "Cwm Tawe", no hyphen. They go into a full paragraph explaining why. |
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nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,034
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Post by nyx on Jun 30, 2023 15:44:12 GMT
I guess the extra 17,000 electors for Brecon, Radnor & Cwm-Tawe will make it a 3-way marginal with Labour competitive again. I think under the new boundaries Labour would have notionally been second there in 2017 with the Lib Dems in 3rd; not so in 2019 though. Tactical voting will probably be a factor and I expect people would think of the Lib Dems as the tactical choice, but hard to say for sure. |
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Sg1
Conservative
Posts: 1,084 
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Post by Sg1 on Jul 1, 2023 12:22:52 GMT
I guess the extra 17,000 electors for Brecon, Radnor & Cwm-Tawe will make it a 3-way marginal with Labour competitive again. I think under the new boundaries Labour would have notionally been second there in 2017 with the Lib Dems in 3rd; not so in 2019 though. Tactical voting will probably be a factor and I expect people would think of the Lib Dems as the tactical choice, but hard to say for sure. Will be interesting to see how successful the Lib Dems end up being in a Labour area where they haven't been very competitive in the recent past. |
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Jul 1, 2023 14:35:05 GMT
I guess the extra 17,000 electors for Brecon, Radnor & Cwm-Tawe will make it a 3-way marginal with Labour competitive again. Based on what proportions have been added, I make it as follows: Con 25,084, Lib Dem 15,278, Lab 8,784, Plaid 1,366, Reform UK 968, Green 221, Others 791 I don't quite see how Labour could gain from that position, based on the polling at the moment, it is far more likely to a Lib Dem gain than a Lab gain |
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Harry Hayfield
Green
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Jul 1, 2023 14:36:30 GMT
A total of £137.60 for the full set including all the maps. The perfect Christmas present! I am being quoted £169.45 having asked for England (Report and Allocations), Scotland, Wales and Ulster |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 1, 2023 17:08:21 GMT
I guess the extra 17,000 electors for Brecon, Radnor & Cwm-Tawe will make it a 3-way marginal with Labour competitive again. Based on what proportions have been added, I make it as follows: Con 25,084, Lib Dem 15,278, Lab 8,784, Plaid 1,366, Reform UK 968, Green 221, Others 791 I don't quite see how Labour could gain from that position, based on the polling at the moment, it is far more likely to a Lib Dem gain than a Lab gain Though notionals for what the last result would have been are of limited use for telling us what the next result might be given the possible change in tactical situation. Labour are less likely to sit back, Labour voters in Brecon/Ystradgynlais are more likely to actually vote Labour; and a few natural LD voters may be persuadable. That isn't to say that Labour will gain it or even that the LDs definitely won't but it is a little more complicated than that |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,028
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Post by Sibboleth on Jul 1, 2023 17:29:41 GMT
Labour have run dead in the constituency for twenty years. They have no incentive to do so now.
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sirbenjamin
IFP
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Post by sirbenjamin on Jul 1, 2023 18:01:28 GMT
I would argue the problematic boundary here is the local authority boundary, not the constituency one. And this is where we get into broader issues about electoral administration in GB, if not the whole UK. We need coordinated boundary reviews, we need local authorities to be no longer frozen to their 1970s "origins". One issue gets into another feeds into another. We perhaps don't have the political culture to fix it
I have a number of strong views on the subject of boundaries, and a particularly strong one is essentially the above. Westminster reviews should be allowed to inform local government reviews and vice versa. It should be joined up.
If a Westminster boundary review finds that ward/LA boundaries are sub-optimal, e.g. for not accurately reflecting local communities or not lending themselves to the harmonious creation of constituencies, they should be able to recommend changes to the underlying boundaries. I'd even make ward realignments a stage in the review process.
Having the two processes exist in isolation - and using the current wards in some areas and old wards that have since been superseded in other places - makes little sense to me.
But then I favour much tighter integration between local, regional and national politics anyway.
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Post by Wisconsin on Jul 1, 2023 19:09:12 GMT
A total of £137.60 for the full set including all the maps. The perfect Christmas present! I am being quoted £169.45 having asked for England (Report and Allocations), Scotland, Wales and Ulster The extra £30 is for blank maps of Cavan, Donegal and Monaghan. |
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Post by islington on Jul 1, 2023 19:15:43 GMT
And this is where we get into broader issues about electoral administration in GB, if not the whole UK. We need coordinated boundary reviews, we need local authorities to be no longer frozen to their 1970s "origins". One issue gets into another feeds into another. We perhaps don't have the political culture to fix it
I have a number of strong views on the subject of boundaries, and a particularly strong one is essentially the above. Westminster reviews should be allowed to inform local government reviews and vice versa. It should be joined up.
If a Westminster boundary review finds that ward/LA boundaries are sub-optimal, e.g. for not accurately reflecting local communities or not lending themselves to the harmonious creation of constituencies, they should be able to recommend changes to the underlying boundaries. I'd even make ward realignments a stage in the review process.
Having the two processes exist in isolation - and using the current wards in some areas and old wards that have since been superseded in other places - makes little sense to me.
But then I favour much tighter integration between local, regional and national politics anyway.
In paras 52-66 at the end of the BCE's final report there are some interesting suggestions for the future.
Para 66 implies to me (although not in so many words) that the BCE and LGBCE should share a secretariat so that there is, in effect, a single body of people working on electoral boundaries at all levels.
I'd go along with this. It should make the process more coherent and ensure that knowledge and experience is retained. Otherwise, in a few years' time we'll embark on the 2031 review with, in effect, an all-new BCE in charge which will probably go on to repeat all the mistakes the BCE made in the zombies.
If the BCE and LGBCE were coordinated in this way, there would be a case for putting the LA electoral review process on pause during the two or three years it takes to carry out a Parliamentary review. In other words, during each eight-year review period, the combined staff of the BCE/LGBCE would spend five-and-a-half years working on LA boundaries and would then switch to Parliamentary boundaries for about two-and-a-half years.
Edited to add: Preferably the interval between Parliamentary reviews would be extended from eight years to ten, thus ensuring that each set of boundaries is used for at least two GEs. But this would need legislation, whereas merging the BCE and LGBCE secretariats could be done at a stroke of the administrative pen.
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,771
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jul 1, 2023 23:34:56 GMT
I am being quoted £169.45 having asked for England (Report and Allocations), Scotland, Wales and Ulster The extra £30 is for blank maps of Cavan, Donegal and Monaghan. Wanna buy a 1:50,000 map of Rockall?   |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 1, 2023 23:45:28 GMT
The extra £30 is for blank maps of Cavan, Donegal and Monaghan. Wanna buy a 1:50,000 map of Rockall? "Other maps are such shapes, with their islands and capes! But we've got our brave Captain to thank: (So the crew would protest) "that he's bought us the best-- A perfect and absolute blank!"  |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 2, 2023 5:50:43 GMT
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Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
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Post by Crimson King on Jul 2, 2023 8:32:45 GMT
Is it time to start the 2031 thread?
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 2, 2023 8:56:54 GMT
Though a Labour government could quite possibly move to reviews every 10 or even 12 years.....
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