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Post by greenhert on Jul 2, 2023 9:02:37 GMT
Though a Labour government could quite possibly move to reviews every 10 or even 12 years..... Back to how it used to be, basically. After all, the most recent boundary reviews before the Sixth Review concluded in 1971, 1982, 1993, and 2006 respectively. Then this cycle got messed up by the Coalition which eventually led to this subpar compromise that was the Sixth Review. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 2, 2023 9:52:03 GMT
I hope the next review is on the basis of population, not electorate.
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,771 
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jul 2, 2023 11:44:18 GMT
I hope the next review is on the basis of population, not electorate. Voting is a right of adult citizenship, so if moving away from electorate it should be based on the number of adult citizens, as determined by the most recent census. Which then makes it make sense to have the review a few years after the census, eg 2033/43/53/etc. The advantage of using electorate figures is that they are never more than one month out of date (except Oct-Dec), the public data is available right down to the household. The disadvantage is people multiply registered and people who aren't registered. The advantage of using population figures is they tend to be have fewer duplicates/missing people, the electorate is broadly a consistant multiple of the population, and is a fixed timetable. The disadvantage is the figures can be up to ten years out of date, currently the "citizenship" data isn't accurate enough, the public data is only available down to census enumeration areas. |
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Sg1
Conservative
Posts: 1,084
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Post by Sg1 on Jul 4, 2023 13:58:10 GMT
It's a shame that they don't have precise estimates for vote totals in each constituency |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 4, 2023 14:50:34 GMT
It's a shame that they don't have precise estimates for vote totals in each constituency A number of those notional results are wrong anyway |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2023 14:51:25 GMT
It's a shame that they don't have precise estimates for vote totals in each constituency A number of those notional results are wrong anyway Which ones? |
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nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,034
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Post by nyx on Jul 4, 2023 15:06:53 GMT
A number of those notional results are wrong anyway Which ones? The most glaringly wrong one is Wirral West. |
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Post by greatkingrat on Jul 4, 2023 15:20:09 GMT
The most glaringly wrong one is Wirral West. That doesn't seem glaringly wrong to me. Wirral West is gaining the two best Conservative wards from Wirral South, so a small Conservative notional majority seems reasonable. |
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Post by jm on Jul 4, 2023 16:44:20 GMT
Is anyone planning to calculate the notional figures for the new constituencies?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 4, 2023 17:04:25 GMT
A number of those notional results are wrong anyway Which ones? For starters, Walsall & Bloxwich and Wolverhampton South East. Walsall council actually published the ward results for the last general election so it is a matter of record that the Conservatives were ahead (just) in the wards making up Walsall & Bloxwich. And it is a matter of record that the Conservatives had a substantial lead in the three Walsall wards being added to Wolverhampton South East (while Blakenhall which is removed would have produced a massive Labour lead as per usual) |
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Post by evergreenadam on Jul 5, 2023 19:18:41 GMT
Do "Conservatives" wish to conserve anything? The pound? But then their actions have devalued it, so……. |
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,450
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jul 5, 2023 20:20:05 GMT
Though a Labour government could quite possibly move to reviews every 10 or even 12 years..... Wasn't it the Tories in the 1950s who agreed to extend from 3 to 7 years but the extended time then of course favoured Labour over time as the seats they held depopulated? |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 9, 2023 12:46:45 GMT
Is it time to start the 2031 thread? 2036 or 2037 at this rate, I don't know which is finished first, that or HS2... |
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,812
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 9, 2023 14:45:51 GMT
Are there already notionals out?
At Elec.Calculus?
Anywhere else?
Has the English BoundaryCommission not published summary-maps, so with all constituencies of a region on 1 page?
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Post by islington on Jul 9, 2023 15:54:28 GMT
Are there already notionals out? At Elec.Calculus? Anywhere else? Has the English BoundaryCommission not published summary-maps, so with all constituencies of a region on 1 page? No, but there's this: alasdairrae.github.io/wpc2023/#8/54.840/-3.356
It's a big map and it may take a few moments to load (and don't try it on a phone) but it's worth the wait. (Patience is a virtue.)
In the drop-down menu, untick 'current constituencies' and you are left with the new seats in all their glory, for the whole UK. A thing of beauty.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,908
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Post by YL on Jul 9, 2023 16:15:17 GMT
Are there already notionals out? At Elec.Calculus? Anywhere else? Electoral Calculus: yes. Anywhere else: not that I'm aware of. I don't think bjornhattan has updated his demographic model ones? |
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Post by borisminor on Jul 9, 2023 16:56:30 GMT
Are there already notionals out? At Elec.Calculus? Anywhere else? Electoral Calculus: yes. Anywhere else: not that I'm aware of. I don't think bjornhattan has updated his demographic model ones? Unless someone can tell me otherwise, Electoral Calculus doesn't include other parties only the majority over another party. Is there a full set of notionals available yet? |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,908
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Post by YL on Jul 9, 2023 17:04:51 GMT
Electoral Calculus: yes. Anywhere else: not that I'm aware of. I don't think bjornhattan has updated his demographic model ones? Unless someone can tell me otherwise, Electoral Calculus doesn't include other parties only the majority over another party. Is there a full set of notionals available yet? Indeed, the publicly available figures from Electoral Calculus only give the majority and who they think won each ward. I think they do have full notionals if you pay for them (which I don't...). |
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,812
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 9, 2023 18:35:39 GMT
Unless someone can tell me otherwise, Electoral Calculus doesn't include other parties only the majority over another party. Is there a full set of notionals available yet? Indeed, the publicly available figures from Electoral Calculus only give the majority and who they think won each ward. I think they do have full notionals if you pay for them (which I don't...). If You click on the names, You get their notionals per ward plus sum. Seems to be the final boundaries. I asked ~2018 for all constituencies in EXCEL, but the owner (a Mr.Baxter?) demanded indeed money. Thus i typed them myself (painful work lasting 1.5 days). |
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Post by bjornhattan on Jul 9, 2023 18:46:15 GMT
Indeed, the publicly available figures from Electoral Calculus only give the majority and who they think won each ward. I think they do have full notionals if you pay for them (which I don't...). If You click on the names, You get their notionals per ward plus sum. Seems to be the final boundaries. I asked ~2018 for all constituencies in EXCEL, but the owner (a Mr.Baxter?) demanded indeed money. Thus i typed them myself (painful work lasting 1.5 days). The issue is that they're based on estimated figures - there used to be actual 2019 notionals as well but he removed them. And if you go on too many seats, your IP gets blocked meaning you can't look at any more for the day. |
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