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Post by rcronald on Oct 11, 2022 15:04:25 GMT
The governor of Alagoas Paolo Dantas (MDB) has been removed from his office by the Supreme Court due to corruption. Dantas is an ally of former President Lula and a very close ally of the infamous Calheiros family.
Dantas is still going to a 2nd round with Senator Rodrigo Cunha, a close ally of Speaker Lira and former President Collor.
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813 
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 11, 2022 17:48:34 GMT
summary of the first round results: ... You published a version yesterDay, which i saved - may i ask, whether You have in this variant altered anything? |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 11, 2022 17:59:37 GMT
summary of the first round results: ... You published a version yesterDay, which i saved - may i ask, whether You have in this variant altered anything? It was only half complete when I posted it, as it didn't have the SouthEast and South. |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 12, 2022 2:12:35 GMT
Bloody hell, Ipec is such a bad pollster.....
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Post by rcronald on Oct 13, 2022 5:09:05 GMT
RJ gov election results in the city of Rio: Claudio Castro (PL) - 49% Marcelo Freixo (PSB) - 34.9%  Some interesting things to note: 1. Castro received 2% more than Bolsonaro in the city while receiving 8% more in the state as a whole, suggesting that Lula still has Socially Conservative support or/and that Freixo's brand of Champagne Socialism alienated small-town/peripheral voters. 2. Castro received 10% less in the city compared to the state while Bolsonaro received 4% less in the city compared to the state. 3. This is the first time the more Socially Conservative candidate won the city in a Gubernatorial election since 2006 and the first time since the military dictatorship ended that a SocCon won in the city against a SocLib in a gov election. I think I’ve found the city with the most Lula-Castro voters in Rio, Bedford Roxo, a heavily evangelical, lower middle class/poor suburb with a population of 500k gave Castro a 72.5-18.9 lead (53.6% lead) in the gubernatorial election and only a 54.8-38.9 lead (15.9%) to Bolsonaro against Lula. The city was ruled by the Communist party until 2017 and is now ruled by a Conservative Evangelical who is a Lula-Castro voter himself. He received 80% of the vote in 2020, suggesting that the one who over-performed was Lula, rather than Castro. Georg EbnerEdit: found a city with even more extreme ticket-splitting, I'm sure it would not surprise anyone to learn that the city is Campos dos Goytacazes (500K), the city of the Garotinho family (who weirdly enough, endorsed Bolsonaro but not Castro).... |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 13, 2022 14:45:54 GMT
The 2nd round in Bahia is going to be fascinating, The right’s total combined vote is 49.88% and the left’s is 50.12% the 2nd round polls are showing them tied lollll |
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Post by AdminSTB on Oct 13, 2022 16:58:00 GMT
Just for fun I've added a prediction poll.
Also from what I can tell the polls ought to close at 8PM GMT, is this correct?
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Post by rcronald on Oct 14, 2022 5:11:20 GMT
In a major but not unexpected development, the popular governor of Minas Gerais Romeu Zema (Novo) has endorsed Jair Bolsonaro. Comparing the Lula years to an athlete with Anabolic Steroids. Governor Zema is now the official campaign coordinator of President Bolsonaro in MG. |
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 14, 2022 13:09:33 GMT
Have Patrioti, PRTB, PMB, PMN still not declared their support for any of the two?
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Post by rcronald on Oct 14, 2022 14:03:20 GMT
Have Patrioti, PRTB, PMB, PMN still not declared their support for any of the two? Not sure if Patriota officially endorsed Bolsonaro, but all of its MPs did. Btw, PMB, PMN, and PRTB don’t have any MPs, so I don’t think that anyone would even report of they did endorse lol |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 14, 2022 17:37:24 GMT
2nd round support by Brazilan Parties:
PL - 99 seats - Bolsonaro
FEB - 80 seats - Lula
União - 59 seats - Officially neutral defacto Bolsonaro
PP - 47 seats - Bolsonaro
MDB - 42 seats - Neutral, strong regional divide
PSD - 42 seats - Neutral, strong regional divide
REP - 40 seats - Bolsonaro
PDT - 17 seats - Lula
PSB - 14 seats - Lula
PSOL/REDE - 14 seats - Lula
PSDB - 13 seats - Neutral, strong age divide
PODE - 12 seats - Neutral
Avante - 7 seats - Officially Lula, de facto neutral
PSC - 6 seats - Bolsonaro
Cidadania - 5 seats - Officially Lula, de facto neutral
Patriota - 4 seats - Officially Unknown, de facto Bolsonaro
Solidariedade - 4 seats - Lula
Novo - 3 seats - Vote against PT, aka Bolsonaro or null
PROS - 4 seats - Lula
PTB - 1 seat - Bolsonaro
De facto support by seats: 513 in lower chamber
Bolsonaro-259
Lula-133
Neutral/Split-121
For some reason, in most parties the executives are significantly to the left of the elected officials and party voters.
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Post by ibfc on Oct 14, 2022 18:07:07 GMT
2nd round support by Brazilan Parties: PL - 99 seats - Bolsonaro FEB - 81 seats - Lula União - 59 seats - Officially neutral defacto Bolsonaro PP - 47 seats - Bolsonaro MDB - 42 seats - Neutral, strong regional divide PSD - 42 seats - Neutral, strong regional divide REP - 40 seats - Bolsonaro PDT - 17 seats - Lula PSB - 14 seats - Lula PSOL/REDE - 14 seats - Lula PSDB - 13 seats - Neutral, strong age divide PODE - 12 seats - Neutral Avante - 7 seats - Officially Lula, de facto neutral PSC - 6 seats - Bolsonaro Cidadania - 5 seats - Officially Lula, de facto neutral Patriota - 4 seats - Officially Unknown, de facto Bolsonaro Solidariedade - 4 seats - Lula Novo - 3 seats - Officially Neutral, de facto Bolsonaro PROS - 3 seats - Lula PTB - 1 seat - Bolsonaro De facto support by seats: 513 in lower chamber Bolsonaro-259 Lula-133 Neutral/Split-121 For some reason, in most parties the executives are significantly to the left of the elected officials and party voters. What’s the age divide in the PSDB? |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,029
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 14, 2022 22:44:38 GMT
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Post by rcronald on Oct 15, 2022 1:14:45 GMT
2nd round support by Brazilan Parties: PL - 99 seats - Bolsonaro FEB - 81 seats - Lula União - 59 seats - Officially neutral defacto Bolsonaro PP - 47 seats - Bolsonaro MDB - 42 seats - Neutral, strong regional divide PSD - 42 seats - Neutral, strong regional divide REP - 40 seats - Bolsonaro PDT - 17 seats - Lula PSB - 14 seats - Lula PSOL/REDE - 14 seats - Lula PSDB - 13 seats - Neutral, strong age divide PODE - 12 seats - Neutral Avante - 7 seats - Officially Lula, de facto neutral PSC - 6 seats - Bolsonaro Cidadania - 5 seats - Officially Lula, de facto neutral Patriota - 4 seats - Officially Unknown, de facto Bolsonaro Solidariedade - 4 seats - Lula Novo - 3 seats - Officially Neutral, de facto Bolsonaro PROS - 3 seats - Lula PTB - 1 seat - Bolsonaro De facto support by seats: 513 in lower chamber Bolsonaro-259 Lula-133 Neutral/Split-121 For some reason, in most parties the executives are significantly to the left of the elected officials and party voters. What’s the age divide in the PSDB? Young-Bolsonaro/Neutrality (mostly under 60) Old-Lula (mostly over 60) |
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Post by ibfc on Oct 15, 2022 3:31:38 GMT
What’s the age divide in the PSDB? Young-Bolsonaro/Neutrality (mostly under 60) Old-Lula (mostly over 60) That was my hunch too. Interesting! |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 15, 2022 6:16:26 GMT
Young-Bolsonaro/Neutrality (mostly under 60) Old-Lula (mostly over 60) That was my hunch too. Interesting! It actually makes a lot of sense, as the party moved to the right over the years as they became the anti-petista party. (not as right-leaning as the people who actually voted for them though) |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 15, 2022 6:20:18 GMT
First de-facto Lula->Bolsonaro flip: One of São Paulo’s (city) most powerful machine politicians (Milton Leite) and the most influential politician in the city’s south end was officially neutral in the first round but de facto supported Haddad and Lula. Haddad has apparently offended him and he has in turn declared war on him and Lula. Haddad hurting lula again, this time by stating that he wants an agrarian reform in São Paulo..... |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 15, 2022 15:18:03 GMT
Expected party mergers after the election:
PP + União = 106
PSDB + Cidadania = 18
SD + PROS = 8
PTB + PATRI = 5
PSC + Unknown = ?
Possible party mergers:
PSC + REP
PSC + União/PP
PSOL + REDE
PT + PV + PCdoB
MDB + PSDB/CID
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 16, 2022 1:38:22 GMT
Parliamentary electionResults grouped by official partyPositions for the presidential runOff: Dep.Chamber:  Senate:  |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 16, 2022 2:21:33 GMT
Parliamentary electionResults grouped by official partyPositions for the presidential runOff: Dep.Chamber: Senate: I personally wouldn’t call União and PATRI neutral…… |
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