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Post by rcronald on Oct 7, 2022 14:15:46 GMT
Attempting to stem the bleeding with religious (and especially evangelical) voters, Lula has declared that not only is he opposed to abortion, but the women he married are against abortion, that almost all Brazilians are against abortion, Not only because they are defenders of life, but because abortion is also a long term torture of the woman.
Edit: Lula has also stated that the issue of abortion is solely the role of the legislature.
I should note that probably more than 80% of the National Congress of Brazil is opposed to abortion, including a likely majority of all benches outside of PCdoB, PSOL, and maybe (?) Cidadania.
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Post by rcronald on Oct 7, 2022 17:18:41 GMT
Just finished watching the new 2nd round ads on the internet and the contrast is even more stark then I imagine. Basically all Lula ads are negative and all Bolsonaro ads are positive.
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Post by grahammurray on Oct 7, 2022 17:23:52 GMT
Just finished watching the new 2nd round ads on the internet and the contrast is even more stark then I imagine. Basically all Lula ads are negative and all Bolsonaro ads are positive. That will be down to incumbent v challenger. I bet it was entirely the other way round when the roles were swapped, |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 7, 2022 17:35:53 GMT
Just finished watching the new 2nd round ads on the internet and the contrast is even more stark then I imagine. Basically all Lula ads are negative and all Bolsonaro ads are positive. That will be down to incumbent v challenger. I bet it was entirely the other way round when the roles were swapped, Let's just say that the Lula ads make 2018 Bolsonaro and 1964 Johnson look like happy puppies.... |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 7, 2022 17:40:52 GMT
Breaking news:
Rising PSB star (was expected to become a senator in 2026), president of the Alagoas PSB and Mayor of Maceio (capital of Alagoas), JHC has not only endorsed Bolsonaro but has also defected to PL.
JHC is a Socially Conservative, Economically Progressive politician and a practicing Evangelical.
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Post by rcronald on Oct 7, 2022 18:27:16 GMT
Breaking news: Rising PSB star (was expected to become a senator in 2026), president of the Alagoas PSB and Mayor of Maceio (capital of Alagoas), JHC has not only endorsed Bolsonaro but has also defected to PL. JHC is a Socially Conservative, Economically Progressive politician and a practicing Evangelical. Another Pro-Bolsonaro PSB endorsement in Alagoas. The mother of JHC, Senator Eudócia Caldas (PSB) has endorsed Bolsonaro. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Oct 7, 2022 18:39:03 GMT
I just hope, if Bolsonaro manages to claw it back, that the Amazon survives.
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Post by rcronald on Oct 7, 2022 19:04:04 GMT
I just hope, if Bolsonaro manages to claw it back, that the Amazon survives. I’m pretty certain that the deforestation rate was higher under Lula 😅 |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435 
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Post by iain on Oct 7, 2022 19:22:59 GMT
I just hope, if Bolsonaro manages to claw it back, that the Amazon survives. I’m pretty certain that the deforestation rate was higher under Lula 😅 Only if you’re being very disingenuous |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 7, 2022 19:32:26 GMT
I’m pretty certain that the deforestation rate was higher under Lula 😅 Only if you’re being very disingenuous Fair point. I have to admit that the fact that Abreu got butchered in the Senate race by someone who is more right wing but less anti-Amazonas pleasantly surprised me. Note: I personally like Lula and think his biggest mistake was choosing Dilma over Gomes. |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 7, 2022 19:36:50 GMT
I’m pretty certain that the deforestation rate was higher under Lula 😅 Only if you’re being very disingenuous Looks like Woke Capitalism aficionado, FHC was very pro-Amazonas during his 2 terms lol |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 7, 2022 20:13:16 GMT
DataFolha has released its first post-first round poll and Lula is leading 49-44 (down from 54-38), considering the fact that polls underestimated Bolsonaro in both 2018 and 2022, I probably have Lula as a slight favourite.
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Post by rcronald on Oct 8, 2022 14:07:34 GMT
I didn’t notice until now, but Roseana Sarney and Eunício Oliveira are back in Parliament.
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Post by rcronald on Oct 8, 2022 15:35:43 GMT
The popular governor of Parana (re-elected with 69% of the vote) Ratinho Jr (PSD) has (unsurprisingly) endorsed Bolsonaro. 6 more governors have endorsed Bolsonaro: Antonio Denarium (PP-Roraima),Ronaldo Caiado (União-Goias), Mauro Mendes (União-Mato Grosso),Gladston Cameli (PP-Acre),Marcos Rocha (União-Rondonia) and Wilson Lima (União-Amazonas). Caiado, a noted “frienemy” of Bolsonaro attacked the president of the party Luciano Bivar for forcing União into neutrality because of a personal feud with Bolsonaro (I suspect he is correct along with the fact that they have a real chance of gaining Bahia and probably don’t want to hurt ACM) despite the fact that all União governors and almost all of their members in Congress support Bolsonaro. Podemos and the Mayor of São Paulo Ricardo Nunez (MDB) have announced their Neutrality in the Presidential race, but also announced their support for Tarcísio (REP) in the São Paulo gubernatorial race. Another one… Governor of Mato Grosso do Sul, Reinaldo Azambuja (PSDB) has endorsed Jair Bolsonaro. Looks like I was right about União, The Bahia state party is the only one to declare neutrality in the 2nd round (Alagoas is expected to officially endorse Bolsonaro in the next few days and the Pernambuco/Bivar state party is quiet), suggesting that the main reason they are officially neutral is to help ACM Neto in Bahia. |
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 8, 2022 18:22:15 GMT
When worshipping tomorrow i will have to meet several, to whom i had said for months, that their hero would be chanceless...
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Post by rcronald on Oct 8, 2022 19:21:54 GMT
When worshipping tomorrow i will have to meet several, to whom i had said for months, that their hero would be chanceless... Brazilian polls are rubbish and always underestimate the right, it’s why I wrote a couple of times that the trends are usually more important than the topline numbers. (even the trends were wrong in some of the races this time) |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 9, 2022 6:02:47 GMT
First de-facto Lula->Bolsonaro flip:
One of São Paulo’s (city) most powerful machine politicians (Milton Leite) and the most influential politician in the city’s south end was officially neutral in the first round but de facto supported Haddad and Lula. Haddad has apparently offended him and he has in turn declared war on him and Lula.
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Post by rcronald on Oct 9, 2022 8:29:40 GMT
I'm going to post an in-depth summary of the first-round results tomorrow.
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Post by rcronald on Oct 11, 2022 12:07:18 GMT
summary of the first round results:
Northwestern Brazil:
Acre:
Governor-Conservative incumbent Gladson Cameli (PP) has unsurprisingly been re-elected with 56.75% of the vote, defeating his closest rival Jorge Viana (PT) by 32%. (Conservative-PP hold) - Total Right vote: 69.11%
Senate-Conservative Evangelical Congressman Alan Rick (União) has been elected to replace Lt.Gov elect Mailza Gomes (PP) with 37.46%, beating his closest opponent by 20%. (Conservative PP->União hold) - Total Right vote: 65.41% Left: 26.18%.
Amapá:
Governor-Centre Left former mayor of Macapá, Clécio Luís (SD) has been elected in the first round, beating Incumbent Lt.Gov Jaime Nunes (PSD) 53.7%-42.6%. (Left PDT->SD hold) - the coalitions were ideologically diverse, so I’m not including right-left totals.
Senate-Right leaning Incumbent Davi Alcolumbre (União) has defeated his main opponent Rayssa Furlan (MDB) by a surprisingly close 5.36%. (Right-União hold)
Amazonas:
Governor-Conservative Incumbent Wilson Lima (União) received more votes than expected (42.8%) but was still unable to avoid a 2nd round, his opponent Eduardo Braga (MDB) received 20.2% and was expected to finish in 3rd place but managed to beat centrist former governor Amazonino Mendes (Cidadania) into 2nd place with the help of Lula and the PT. Right-42.82% Left-37.22%.
Senate-Incumbent Senator and former Governor Omar Aziz (PSD) has defeated Conservative Coronel Menezes (PL) by a surprisingly narrow 2.4% (41.4%-39%). (centrão-PSD hold) Right-39.72% Left-50.78%.
Para:
Governor-Incumbent Helder Barbalho (MDB) easily won re-election by more than 40%, receiving 70.41% of the vote. (Centrão-MDB hold)
Senate-Lefty Congressman Beto Faro (PT) won the election to replace the retiring Paulo Rocha (PT) due to a split Conservative opposition, beating Right-wing former Senator Mário Couto (PL) 42.5-35.5. (Left wing-PT hold) - Right-45.22% Left-42.87%
Rondônia:
Governor-Conservative Incumbent Marcos Rocha (União) is going to the 2nd round with Conservative Senator Marcos Rogério (PL) with a surprisingly close result (38.9-37.05). Right-75.93% Left-10%
Senator-Despite being in 5th place in almost every poll (4th in 1), Conservative
Jaime Bagattoli (PL) shockingly defeated right-leaning Congresswoman Mariana Carvalho (REP) 35.8%-32.15% despite her leading the polls by more than 20%. Left-leaning Incumbent Acir Gurgacz (PDT) finished in 5th place with 7.7% of the vote. (Right gain from Left PDT->PL) - Right-82.03% Left-7.72%.
Roraima:
Governor-Conservative Incumbent Antônio Denarium (PP) has won reelection against the former Mayor of Boa Vista Teresa Surita (MDB), beating her 56.5%-41.1%. (Right-PP hold) - Right-56.47% Left-2.39%
Senator-Right-leaning Congressman, Hiran Gonçalves (PP) has defeated infamous Centrão big beast and former Senator Romero Juca (MDB), with Hiran likely winning by a comfortable 11%~ margin because of the left’s strong personal dislike of Juca. Centre-left incumbent Telmario Mota (PROS) finished in 3rd place with 7.7%. (Right gain from Centre left PROS->PP)
Right-49% Left-13.14%
Tocantins:
Governor-Conservative Incumbent Wanderlei Barbosa (REP) has easily won re-election, receiving 58.1% of the vote. (Right-REP hold) - Right-81.4% Left-11%.
Senate-Conservative Congresswoman Dorinha Rezende (União) has defeated the notoriously anti-Amazon Centre left Incumbent and former Dilma secretary of agriculture Kátia Abreu (PP) by a landslide, beating her 50.4%-18.5%. Abreu’s combination of loyalty to the PT governments of the past along with her strongly pro-Agro positions has alienated voters from both sides of the political spectrum causing a heavy defeat for the well-known and established senator. (Right gain from Centre Left PP->União) - Right-54% Left-37.18.
Midwestern Brazil:
Federal district:
Governor/Mayor-Right-leaning Incumbent Ibaneis Rocha (MDB) has won re-election beating his closest opponent by 24%, he has barely avoided a 2nd round as he only received 50.3%. Rocha is a close ally and a personal friend of President Jair Bolsonaro, so I don’t expect him to remain in the MDB for another 4 years. (Right-MDB hold) - Right-63.7% Left-32%
Senator-Conservative Minister of Families and Evangelical Pastor Demares Alves (REP) has defeated Conservative Secretary of Government Flavia Arruda (PL) by a surprisingly large margin, winning 45%-27% despite the polls showing them tied (but Alves with significant momentum). The Centrist Independent Incumbent José Reguffe (Independent) retired. The race was fascinating as Bolsonaro and his wife supported different candidates, with the President supporting Arruda and his evangelical wife supporting Alves.
(Right gain from Centre Ind->REP) - Right-73% Left-26.4%
Goías:
Governor- Right-leaning Incumbent Ronaldo Caiado (União) won re-election with 51.8% of the vote, defeating other Conservative candidates. (Right-União hold) - Right-92.09% Left-7.91%.
Senate- Conservative former Senator Wilder Morais (PL) has surprisingly defeated former 4-term Governor Marconi Perillo (PSDB) who led every poll and has been expanding his lead for a month and Conservative Congressman Delegado Waldir (União) who was in 2nd place in almost every poll. Wilder heavily relied on Bolsonaro for his victory, overcoming the right’s extremely fractured field (4 serious candidates). (Right PSC->PL hold) - Right-67.3% Left-11.1%
Mato Grosso:
Governor- Right-leaning Incumbent Mauro Mendes (União) has easily won re-election, receiving 68.45% of the vote. (Right-União hold) - Right-82.8% Left-17.1%.
Senate- Right-leaning Incumbent Wellington Fagundes (PL) has easily won re-election with 63.5% of the vote. (Right-PL hold) - Right-98.27% Left-1.73%.
Mato Grosso do Sul:
Governor-Right wing state representative Capitão Contar (PRTB) has surprisingly finished 1st (26.7%) despite him polling in 4th place, I assume his heavy reliance on being a hardened og Bolsonarist almost certainly helped him, he’ll face right-leaning businessman Eduardo Riedel (PSDB) who finished in a close 2nd place after surging throughout the campaign from 5th place to a close 2nd (25.2%) due to a strong campaign that had him running significantly to the right of the national party, strongly supporting Bolsonaro despite his National party’s support of Tebet and having 2 candidates from the state along with strong support from Tereza Cristina. Former Governor André Puccinelli (MDB), who was leading every poll ended up in 3rd place (17.2%) as his campaign was badly hurt by the late collapse of Conservative Marquinhos Trad’s (PSD) campaign, whose collapse wasn’t caught by the polls and votes went almost exclusively to Contar and Reidel along with his support of Simone Tebet (MDB), which caused his remaining Bolsonarist supporters to flee. Right-73% Left-9.85%.
Senate-Conservative Bolsonaro Secretary of Agriculture Tereza Cristina (PP) has easily won the election, receiving 60.85% of the vote. (Right gain from Centrão MDB->PP) - Right-86.8% Left-13.2%.
Northeastern Brazil:
Alagoas:
Governor-Incumbent Paulo Dantas (MDB) has finished far ahead of his closest opponent but has not garnered enough votes (46.74%) to avoid a 2nd round against right-leaning Senator Rodrigo Cunha (União). Right-52.2% Left-47.8%.
Senate-Former Governor Renan Calherios Jr (MDB) has won the election to replace the infamous Fernando Collor by a surprisingly not large margin, beating his closest opponent 56.9%-42.2% despite leading by roughly 30% in the polls. (Centrão gain from Right PTB->MDB) - Right-42.2 Left-57.8%.
Bahia:
Governor- Left-leaning Bahia Secretary of Education Jerônimo (PT) has surprisingly received close to 50% of the vote (49.45%) despite not leading in a single poll throughout the campaign and trailing by 40% at the start of the campaign, but the Lula wave in parts of the northeast and several blunders by initial frontrunner and his 2nd round opponent right-leaning former Mayor of Salvador ACM Neto (União), but that was not enough for him to avoid a runoff as the ACM name (his grandpa ACM is a legendary figure Brazilian politics in general and Bahia in particular) still garners a lot of loyalty throughout Bahia along with his sky-high popularity as the Mayor of Salvador. Right-49.9% Left-50.1%.
Senator- Centre-Left Incumbent Otto Alencar (PSD) has won by a surprisingly large margin (33.1%), receiving 58.3% of the vote. (Left-PSD hold) - Right-39.85% Left-60.15%.
Ceára:
Governor- Lefty state representative Elmano de Freitas (PT) has won by 22% despite starting the campaign in 3rd place and only taking the lead 1 week before the election, receiving 54% of the vote against the 31.7% of the initial frontrunner and right-leaning Congressman Captain Wagner (União) who suffered from the Lula wave in the northeast and his reputation of being a close ally of President Bolsonaro. (Left-PT hold) - Right-31.7% Left-68.3%.
Senate- Centre-Left Governor Camilo Santana (PT) has easily won, receiving 69.8% of the vote. (Left gain from Centre PSDB->PT) Right-26.2% Left-73.8%.
Maranhão:
Governor- Centre-Left Incumbent Carlos Brandão (PSB) has won re-election with 51.3% of the vote. (Left-PSB hold) - Right-27.45% Left-51.85%
Senate- Lefty former Governor Flávio Dino (PSB) has easily defeated Conservative Incumbent Senator Roberto Rocha (PTB) 62.4%-35.6%.
(Left gain from Right PTB->PSB) Right-36.3% Left-63.7%.
Paraíba:
Governor- Centre Left Incumbent João Azevêdo (PSB) is heading to a runoff against Centre Right Congressman Pedro Cunha Lima (PSDB) after receiving 39.65% of the vote against Cunha’s 23.9%. Right-42.7% Left-57.3%.
Senate- Right-leaning Congressman Efraim Morais Jr (União) won a 3-way race against left-leaning state representative Pollyana Dutra (PSB) and left-leaning former Governor Ricardo Coutinho (PT), beating them 30.8%-22.8%-21.55% with 2 Bolsonarist candidates receiving a combined vote share of 23.5% and while Efraim’s victory is not especially surprising (he was in 2nd place in every poll and clearly had momentum) Dutra’s 2nd place finish is a major surprise as Coutinho was leading her by double digits in every poll.
(Right gain from Centrão MDB->União) - Right-54.1% Left-45.9%.
Pernambuco:
Governor-For the first time since 2005 Pernambuco is going to have a Governor who is not a PSB member, with the 1st and 2nd place finishers being Centre-Left Congresswoman Marília Arraes (SD) and Centrist Mayor of Caruaru Raquel Lyra (PSDB) surviving a brutal and tight 5-way (the difference between 1st and 5th place was 6%, 2.5% between 2nd and 5th place and 0.1% between 3rd and 5th place) receiving 24%-20.6% respectively.
The election also had a tragic human story, with Lyra’s husband suffering from a massive heart attack and passing away on Election Day, they’ve been together for 29 years since both were 15. Fernando Lucena 1978-2022 RIP.
Right-36.4% Left-43%.
Senate- Lefty state representative Teresa Leitão (PT) defeated Conservative Bolsonaro Minister of Tourism Gilson Machado (PL) 46.6%-29.55%, with both Leitão and Machado performing significantly better than expected. (Left gain from Centrão MDB->PT) - Right-35.68% Left-47.9%.
Piauí:
Governor- Left-leaning Piaui Secretary of Finance Rafael Fonteles (PT) has defeated right-leaning former Mayor of Teresina Silvio Mendes (União) by a surprisingly large margin in what was supposed to be a toss-up race, beating him 57.2%-41.6%. (Left-PT hold) - Right-42.4% Left-57.6%.
Senate- Lefty Governor Wellington Dias (PT) has defeated the right-leaning Mayor of Floriano Joel Rodrigues (PP) by a surprisingly narrow 51.3%-47.6%, this is especially surprising as every single poll showed the right doing better in the gubernatorial race. (Left gain from Right PP->PT) - Right-48.1% Left-51.9%.
Rio Grande do Norte:
Governor- Lefty Incumbent Fátima Bezerra (PT) has easily won re-election, receiving 58.3% of the vote. (Left-PT hold) - Right-24.5% Left-58.6%.
Senate- Conservative Bolsonaro Minister of Regional Development and the creator of the 2017 Labour reform, Rogério Marinho (PL) has surprisingly defeated the Centre-Left former Mayor of Natal (PDT) due to a split left-wing vote with Centre-Left Congressman Rafael Motta (PSB) playing as a spoiler, splitting the vote 41.85%-33.4%-22.8%. (Right gain from Left PT->PL) - Right-42.5% Left-56.9%.
Sergipe:
Governor-In what has to be the strangest race in the entire country, the Conservative former Mayor of Itabaiana Valmir de Francisquinho (PL) received 37.7% of the vote but was disqualified by the TSE 2 days before the election, therefore, Lefty Senator Rogério Carvalho (PT) and congressman Fábio Mitidieri (PSD) qualified to the 2nd round with 27.9% and 24.3% respectively. Right-38% Left-31%
Senate- Conservative Evangelical Congressman Laércio Oliveira (PP) has surprisingly won a tight 4-way race despite being in 4th place in every single poll and not even being the most Bolsonarist serious candidate, beating Left-leaning former Congressman Antônio Valadares Jr (PSB), Conservative former Senator Eduardo Amorim (PL) and Danielle Garcia (PODE) 28.6%-24.65%-22.7%-19%. (Right-PP hold) - Right-51.4% Left-29.7%.
Southeastern Brazil:
Espírito Santo:
Governor- Centre Left Incumbent Renato Casagrande (PSB) has been dragged to a 2nd round against right-wing former Congressman Carlos Manato (PL), who performed better than expected and only trailing Casagrande by 8.4% (46.9%-38.5%). Right-46.3% Left-53.7%.
Senate-Ultra Conservative and well-known Evangelical Theocrat former Senator Magno Malta (PL) has narrowly defeated Incumbent Rose de Freitas (MDB) by 4% despite having a split right-wing field, with Conservative state representative Eric Musso (REP) receiving 17% of the vote. (Right gain from Centrão MDB->PL) Right-60.5% Left-39.5%.
Minas Gerais:
Governor- Right-Libertarian Incumbent Romeu Zema (Novo) has easily won re-election, beating former Mayor of Belo Horizonte Alexandre Khalil (PSD) and his left-leaning coalition 56.2%-35.1%. (Right-Novo hold) - Right-63.6% Left-35.9%.
Senate- Conservative state representative Cleitinho Azevedo (PSC) has defeated Incumbent Alexandre Silveira (PSD) and his left-leaning coalition 41.5%-35.8%. The race was nationalized by both sides, with Azevedo running as a Bolsonarist and Silveira running as a strong Lula ally. (Right gain from Centrão PSD->PSC) - Right-61.7% Left-38.3%.
Rio de Janeiro:
Governor- Ultra Conservative Incumbent and Catholic Gospel singer Cláudio Castro (PL) has defeated left-leaning Congressman Marcelo Freixo (PSB) by a surprisingly large 31% margin, receiving 58.7% of the vote despite only starting the campaign with a 4-point lead. Castro run an extremely strong campaign, refusing to attack Freixo and focusing on family values, the economy, and being aggressively pro-police. (Right-PL hold) - Right-64% Left-36%.
Senator- Legendary Striker and right-leaning Incumbent Romário (PL) has won a surprisingly tight race against left-leaning Congressman Alessandro Molon (PSB), Far Right Congressman Daniel Silveira (PTB) who was pardoned by Bolsonaro after being sentenced to 9 years in prison for threatening violence against Supreme Court justices and Conservative Congresswoman and daughter of the in/famous Garotinho family, Clarissa Garotinho (União), beating them 29.2%-21.2%-19.2%-14%. (Right-PL hold) - Right-62.6% Left-37.15.
São Paulo:
Governor-Conservative Bolsonaro Minister of Infrastructure Tarcísio (REP) has surprisingly ended in first place despite not leading a single poll against Left-leaning 2018 presidential runner-up and former Mayor of São Paulo Fernando Haddad (PT) who in turn run a bad campaign that was relying on his name recognition from 2018, but ahead of Centre-Right incumbent Rodrigo Garcia (PSDB) who was badly hurt by his association with former Governor João Doria and polarization at the presidential level, beating them 42.3%-35.7%-18.4%. Right-62.4% Left-37.6%.
Senate-Conservative Bolsonaro Minister of Science Marcos Pontes (PL) has surprisingly defeated Centre Left former Governor Márcio França (PSB), beating him 49.7%-36.3% despite not leading a single credible poll (trailing him by double digits in most polls) and overperformed his poll numbers by 25%. (Right gain from Centre PSDB->PL)
Southern Brazil:
Paraná:
Governor- Right-leaning Incumbent and son of and son of controversial right wing media persona and multimillionaire Ratinho, Ratinho Jr (PSD) has easily won re-election with 69.8% of the vote. (Right-PSD hold) - Right-70.6% Left-29.4%.
Senate- Famous Right-leaning former Bolosnaro Minister of Justice and Lava Jato Judge Sergio Moro (União) has been elected to the Senate, defeating Conservative Congressman Paulo Martins (PL) and Incumbent Alvaro Dias (PODE) 33.5%-29.1%-23.9%. Moro’s victory was not surprising, but Dias finishing 3rd with 24% certainly was, as he was narrowly leading the polls and was polling better than 24% in every single poll. (Right gain from Centre PODE->União) - Right-64.2% Left-11.9%.
Rio Grande do Sul:
Governor- In a very surprising result, Conservative former Bolsonaro Chief of Staff Onyx Lorenzoni (PL) has ended up in first place and Centre-Right Incumbent Eduardo Leite (PSDB) barely survived the first round, beating Lefty state representative Edegar Pretto (PT) by 0.04% but Lorenzoni finished far ahead of both, beating them 37.5%-26.81%-26.77%. Right-44.4% Left-28.8%
Senate- Conservative Vice President Hamilton Mourão (REP) has defeated Lefty former governor Olívio Dutra (PT) and Right-leaning former Senator Ana Amélia Lemos (PSD) in what was supposed to be a toss-up 3-way race 44.1%-37.85%-16.4%, but this wasn't meant to be as Lamos collapsed due to polarization at the presidential level. (Right gain from Centrão PODE->REP) - Right-60.9% Left-39.1%.
Santa Catarina:
Governor- Right-leaning Senator Jorginho Mello (PL) has finished far ahead of the competition with 38.6% and will face left-leaning former Temer era CoD minority leader Décio Lima (PT) who survived a tight and brutal 4-way fight to face Mello, beating 3 Conservative candidates including Incumbent Governor Carlos Moisés (REP), Mayor of Florianópolis Gean Loureiro (União) and Senator Esperidião Amin (PP) 17.4%-17%-13.6%-9.75%. Right-81.8% Left-18.2%.
Senate- Conservative Bolsonaro Minister of Fisheries Jorge Seif (PL) has surprisingly defeated Centre-Right former Governor and the perceived frontrunner Raimundo Colombo (PSD) and Centre-left Incumbent Dário Berger (PSB) 39.8%-16.3%-16.2%. (Right gain from Left PSB->PL) - Right-78.8% Left-21.2%.
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Post by rcronald on Oct 11, 2022 12:08:09 GMT
I'm going to post a state of play in a week or so.
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