Brazil, elections

[Georg Ebner]

Local elections are being held today.
2016 saw already a "dePTication" with winners like "bishop" Crivella in Rio and other RightWingers.

[Georg Ebner]

Brazil is another (like Bosnia&H.) MadHouse with an endless number of parties.
1st place in round 1:

[Georg Ebner]

...but what the map clearly shows is, that PT didn't achieve a big ComeBack (being only in the NE a major factor). "The SocialDemocrats" - the centerright PSDB - seems to have lost ground, too.
Both could be caused by the poor people turning more to the right, while the wealthier to the "caviar-left".

[Georg Ebner]

I tried to group all the sects.

Right:

Left:

[Georg Ebner]

Nov 16, 2020 17:57:54 GMT @kipper1 said:

Nov 16, 2020 17:37:11 GMT Georg Ebner said:

I tried to group all the sects.

This article groups parties as left, right and centre

congressoemfoco.uol.com.br/legislativo/direita-cresce-e-engole-o-centro-no-congresso-mais-fragmentado-da-historia/

The centre parties being significant. As far as I can gather their ideology is Pork barrel politics and 'We'll support whoever is elected President but reserve the right to vote to impeach them later if it's suits our interests'

I thank You, i have saved their schema!
Yes, of course, especially MDB is a classical example of "centrism" (=promiscuity). But a dichotomy Left-Right is probably easier than one adding a Mid (economical mid? "social" mid?).
Here are 2 other tries within 1 picture:

[Georg Ebner]

Now maps based on this classification:
congressoemfoco.uol.com.br/legislativo/direita-cresce-e-engole-o-centro-no-congresso-mais-fragmentado-da-historia/

[Georg Ebner]

Interesting NumberCrunchings:

noticias.uol.com.br/eleicoes/2020/apuracao/1turno/br#votos-para-prefeito-por-partido

[Georg Ebner]

Governors since 1983:



I am aware, that the ColourCode is far from being perfect.

[Georg Ebner]

Votes for MunicipalityCouncillors:

[Devil Wincarnate]

You can roughly assess what a Brazilian party is like by the derivation of the leader or main figure's surname:

Portuguese: left-wing idealist, left-wing crook, oligarchical crook, lunatic.
Italian: right-wing idealist, militarist.
German: not interested in anything north of Parana.
Lebanese: oligarchical crook, ultra-pragmatist crook, holds shares in concrete works.
Slavic: not interested in anything that isn't in Parana.
Anything else: any one of the above categories. But probably crook.

[Georg Ebner]

In most cities the PollingStations have closed.
Here is a ResultPage:

g1.globo.com/politica/eleicoes/2020/resultado-das-apuracoes/cidades/

In Rio the incumbent - a "bishop" of an Americanoid sect, who endorsed formerly Lula&Roussef and last time Bolsonaro - is far behind the candidate of the SoftRight.
In Sao Paulo the left challenger was polled at 45%, so not chanceless, but unlikely to succeed in that economical city.
Excitingly close are according to the OpinionPolls the races in Vitoria (PT vs. Rep. [pro-Bolsonaro]), PortoAlegre (a pretty Communista and exPres.-contender vs. a MDB-centrist), but most exciting is negrid Recife with a left-wing duell (PSB vs. PT) of relatives...

[Georg Ebner]

In Sao Paulo the candidate of the PSDB-establishment stands at 60%, so better than polled.
In Rio his moderate-right equiValent is unsurprisingly at 64%.
In Porto alegre the good-looking PCdoB won't make it.
In Manaus it is very, very close (centre-left AVANTE ahead of centre-right PODE).

Generally it appears to be satisfying for the left, but it was also no BlowOut for the right (Republicanos defending Campinas in SaoPaulo, Victoria in EspiritoSanto aso.).

[Georg Ebner]

While the left parties performed not so badly in the cities the overall picture is once again very encouraging for Bolsonaro:

[Georg Ebner]

Nov 30, 2020 1:38:55 GMT Georg Ebner said:

the overall picture is once again very encouraging for Bolsonaro

Well, probably more for another - more moderate - RightWinger and less so for Bolsonaro himself, if we look at these numbers:
Candidates supported by him elected (green) sive defeated (darkgrey) as mayors (above) or councillors (below):

[Georg Ebner]

Bahia demonstrates very well, how the NE has been shifting to PT&allies 1998-2018:

[johng]

The presidential and legislative elections are happening in October next year.
Lula has led every single poll since it's been clear his candidacy is legal.

[Georg Ebner]

The retreat of Doria will have ruined my PSDB-trendTables, i.e. the deViations of states from national average, measured at
- all eligible votes:


- only valid votes:

[Devil Wincarnate]

2nd October for these.

I'd totally missed that Lula's running mate is Alckmin of all people. PT candidate with Lebanese establishment running mate... Famously ends really well.

[rcronald]

The race is clearly tightening at the moment, and while I expect Lula himself to win, I would not be surprised at all if the congress ends up being more right wing then it currently is and outside of São Paulo (which seems to shift more to the left then the rest of Brazil) the left’s situation is looking dire at the gubernatorial and senatorial levels.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Aug 15, 2022 8:03:39 GMT rcronald said:

The race is clearly tightening at the moment, and while I expect Lula himself to win, I would not be surprised at all if the congress ends up being more right wing then it currently is and outside of São Paulo (which seems to shift more to the left then the rest of Brazil) the left’s situation is looking dire at the gubernatorial and senatorial levels.

Bolsonaro has a problem on his right: his former supporters in the Uniao Brasil have their own candidate, Soraya Thronicke- who has no chance but is clearly a nuisance for him. He needs those voters and almost the entire PSDB vote going his way, or he's not going to defeat Lula in the runoff.

That it's those two in the runoff is clear enough unless something really weird happens.

In more unlikely news, the TV presenter Luciano Huck withdrew his candidacy last month. He was polling higher than the PSDB at one point!