Brazil, elections

[CatholicLeft]

Oct 2, 2022 20:22:01 GMT iain said:

Bolsonaro leading in the early count

Well, a tiny oercentage so far counted, and it depends where the vote so far counted is from, it might show a large swing against Bolsonaro since last time. However, you know this and are playing the role of the BBC election reporter at 11.06pm on General Election night.

[Georg Ebner]

At this map:

especiaisg1.globo/politica/eleicoes/2022/mapas/mapa-da-apuracao-no-brasil-presidente/1-turno/

large areas in the CentreWest, where Bolsonaro was expected to perform best, and the North are counted.
So, He will recede probably a lot.

[iain]

I think most / nearly most of the vote comes from Brasilia at the moment.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Guardian live blog.
www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/oct/03/brazil-elections-2022-jair-bolsonaro-lula-latest-results-live-updates

[Devil Wincarnate]

Oct 1, 2022 9:59:08 GMT rcronald said:

Oct 1, 2022 9:31:43 GMT bridgyoldboy said:

if the polling is correct these celebrity endorsements pretty much count for nothing en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Brazilian_presidential_election

I know, was just annoyed by the “rich white” comment.

I would also note that the Portuguese language version of the page shows a significantly tighter race, despite starting to think myself that Lula is going to narrowly surpass the 50% threshold.

Lula's running mate might as well be the picture of the dictionary definition of the wealthy Brazilian elite. And he's there for a reason.

[Georg Ebner]

Although Lula will probably win in the end, there was obviously a huge misPolling going on for years?

On the first page of this thread i was irritated by the surprisingly strong showing of the Right in the Local Elections 2020. But didn't expect this to benefit Bolsonaro as the candidates outright endorsed by Him failed mostly.

At first glance it appears, that the NE is quite static compared to 2018, so trending to the right. Seems, that Bolsonaro's subVention-programs worked there.

[Forfarshire Conservative]

So far, 54.59% of the vote has been counted;

Bolsonaro 46.31%

Lula 44.87%

[iain]

Lula is just about to pass Bolsonaro in the count. A runoff is looking pretty likely at this point.

[Forfarshire Conservative]

Lula has taken a narrow lead at 70% counted.

[Georg Ebner]

With 95% done Lula stands at 47.6% and will surely end between 48% and 49%, so not far below the polls. It was Bolsonaro, who overperformed (just as somebody else in 2020...).

It's more the Governor&Senate-races (no idea of the situation in lower chamber), which have turned into lots of debacles for the left and triumphs for the Bolsonaro-camp.

[ibfc]

As per Wiki, all the parties that seem to have done well in the Lower House appear to be on the Right. But not sure if that’s reflective of their actual allegiances.

[rcronald]

The right did shockingly well and Tebet/Ciro(!) voters switching to Bolsonaro should alarm the left.

[rcronald]

Oct 3, 2022 2:34:49 GMT rcronald said:

The right did shockingly well and Tebet/Ciro(!) voters switching to Bolsonaro should alarm the left.

Some predictions that I made in favour of the right 2 weeks ago that looked incorrect on the eve of the election turned out correct lol

[ibfc]

Aug 15, 2022 12:07:47 GMT rcronald said:

Aug 15, 2022 12:03:53 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Yes, it's 90% runOff - but not 100%!

I doubt Bolsonaro is gonna win the runoff (I’ll give Lula 75%~), but the rest of the results are gonna be pretty awful for the left outside of that.

This held up damn well

[rcronald]

Oct 3, 2022 2:49:51 GMT ibfc said:

Aug 15, 2022 12:07:47 GMT rcronald said:

I doubt Bolsonaro is gonna win the runoff (I’ll give Lula 75%~), but the rest of the results are gonna be pretty awful for the left outside of that.

This held up damn well

the left relied too heavily on the personal disapproval of Bolsonaro, ignoring the obvious fatigue the Brazilian electorate has with the left itself.

[rcronald]

I’m going through the results and some of them are honestly shocking, even when you look at the trends:

Alvaro Dias finished 3rd in Parana after Moro and the Bolsonaro candidate

Wellington Dias won by a significantly smaller margin then his candidate for Gov in Piaui

Otto Alencar got almost 60% of the vote in Bahia

Pontes defeated Franca

Castro received 59% of the vote while Romario barely held on

Lorenzoni finished ahead of Incumbent Leite (and Leite is also leading 3rd place PT candidate by 0.04%), signaling a pretty high likelihood of the tradition of RS kicking their governors after 1 term alive and well

The RS Senate race did actually turnout to be a 2-way race

Rocha (União) and Rogerio (PL) are essentially tied in Rondonia

Bagattoli (PL) won the Senate seat in Rondonia despite what looked like a collapse in the poll and a massive lead opened up by Carvalho (REP)

My prediction about a landslide in SC Senate was correct, it just fell on the side I thought was going to win by a landslide….

Marcos Pontes (PL) received 50% of the vote in SP senate (and Tarcisio is the clear favourite in the Gov race)

[rcronald]

It’s probably the first time ever in the new Republic that the right won an absolute majority in the lower chamber.

[rcronald]

Looks like Bolsonaro is going to change strategies in the 2nd round, focusing on declining crime rates and comparing Brazil to left-wing countries in Latin America. He is also expected to receive important endorsements and complaining from popular Governors like Romeu Zema (MG) and Claudio Castro (RJ).

[rcronald]

The 2nd round in Bahia is going to be fascinating,
The right’s total combined vote is 49.88% and the left’s is 50.12%

[ibfc]

Oct 3, 2022 4:49:30 GMT rcronald said:

Looks like Bolsonaro is going to change strategies in the 2nd round, focusing on declining crime rates and comparing Brazil to left-wing countries in Latin America. He is also expected to receive important endorsements and complaining from popular Governors like Romeu Zema (MG) and Claudio Castro (RJ).

Why did he not adopt this strategy in the first round? Seems like the most obvious strategy for him.