State of play in Brazil two and a half weeks before the first round:
Before we start:
1.I enjoy following Brazilian politics, but definitely not an expert.
2.if you see one of the following party labels: MDB, PSD, PODE, Avante, PROS, and Agir then unless noted otherwise the politician has no ideology and is usually just for corruption and pork politics.
Parties like PP, PL, and PTB used to be the same but became significantly more ideologically coherent (aka, right-wing) during the last 3 years.
3.Brazil tends to have wild swings during the campaign and someone who is leading by 10% today is definitely not safe.
North West Brazil:
Acre:
Governor- Conservative Incumbent Gladston (yes, Gladston not Gladstone) Cameli (PP) is heavily favoured to win re-election with his broad coalition of parties from all over the political spectrum over his leftist (PT) former challenger former Governor and Senator Jorge Viana. Leading by about 24%, the only question being whether he’ll win in the 1st round or the 2nd round.
Senator- Incumbent Conservative Senator Mailza Gomes (PP) who replaced Cameli after he was sworn in as Governor is not running for re-election.
Evangelical Congressman Alan Rick (União) is favoured to win the election,
with a lead of about 12% over his closest challenger former state representative Ney Amorim (PODE) who is a former PT member (should be noted that the PT brand in Acre is significantly more moderate) running under the same coalition as Cameli, don’t be surprised if Amorim ends up in 4th place as state representative Janilson Leite (PSB) and Marcia Bittar (PL) are right behind him.
Amazonas:
Governor- Incumbent Wilson Lima (União) and his Conservative coalition are the slight favourites in a rematch against former 4 term Governor Amazonino Mendes (Cidadania) and his centrist coalition, leading by roughly 5% with Senator Eduardo Braga (MDB) and his left leaning coalition who are behind Mendes by about 8.5%
Senator- Incumbent Senator (and former governor) Omar Aziz (PSD) and his left leaning coalition are the slight favourites in a 3 way race with 29% of the vote with Centrist former Senator and mayor of Manaus Arthur Virgílio Neto (PSDB) with 22% who is in the same coalition as Mendes and Conservative Colonel Menezes (PL) with 18.5% who is supported by the same coalition as Lima. while he is 10% behind Aziz and 3.5% behind Neto, don’t be surprised if Menezes ends up winning or with a very close 2nd place as he has been rapidly increasing in the polls, increasing his numbers from 12% in early September to more then 18% in September 12th.
Amapá:
Governor- The Centre-left former mayor of Macapá Clécio Luis is narrowly favoured to win with his broad coalition over Vice Governor of Amapá Jaime Nunes (PSD), leading by about 5%.
Senator- Pro business Incumbent Senator and former president of the Senate Davi Alcolumbre (União) is favoured to win re-election, leading his main opponent Rayssa Furlan (MDB) by roughly 15%.
Pará:
Governor- Incumbent Governor and son of notoriously corrupt Senator Jader Barbalho (MDB), Helder Barbalho (MDB) is heavily favoured to win with his broad coalition and is likely to win outright in the 1st round, beating his closest opponent by more then 50%.
Senator- Conservative former Senator Mário Couto (PL) is a narrow favourite in a wide open field, leading his left wing opponent Congressman Beto Faro (PT) by roughly 2%, former right leaning Senator Flexa Ribeiro (PP) by about 7% , Jardel Guimarães (PODE) by 8% and former Mayor of Ananindeua Manoel Pioneiro (PSDB) by 8%. Since all 3 other candidates are relatively right leaning, I would expect Couto to start taking votes from them.
Rondônia:
Governor- Conservative Incumbent Marcos Rocha (União) is in a toss-up race with Right leaning former Senator Ivo Ivo Cassol (PP), leading by roughly 2% with one of the polls suggesting that Conservative Senator Marcos Rogério (PL) right behind them.
Senator- Centrist (perhaps Centre-right) former Senator Expedito Júnior (PSD), Conservative Congresswoman Jaqueline Cassol (PP) and Right leaning Congresswoman Mariana Carvalho (REP) are the top 4 candidates in a 4way toss-up race, with left leaning Incumbent Senator and convicted criminal Acir Gurgacz (PDT) in distant 5th place.
Roraima:
Governor- Conservative Incumbent Governor Antonio Denarium (PP) is narrowly favoured against former Mayor of Boa Vista Teresa Surita (MDB), leading her by 7% in the only publicly released poll.
Senator- former Senator Romero Jucá (MDB) and Conservative Dr. Hiran (PP) are tied in the only publicly released poll, with Incumbent Telmário Mota (PROS) far behind them.
Tocantins:
Governor- Conservative Incumbent Governor Wanderlei Barbosa (REP) is heavily favoured against former mayor of Araguaína Ronaldo Dimas (PL), with the only question being whether he’ll win in the first round outright.
Senator- Agribusiness Stan Incumbent Senator Kátia Abreu (PP) and Right wing Congresswoman Dorinha Rezende (União) are locked in a tight race with former Mayor of Palmas Carlos Amastha (PSB) and Centre-Right former Senator Ataídes Oliveira (PROS) not far behind them.
Midwestern Brazil:
Federal District:
Governor- Right leaning Incumbent governor Ibaneis Rocha (MDB) and his Conservative coalition are heavily favoured to win, with the only question being as to whether he’ll win the first round outright.
Senate- Conservative Former Bolsonaro Secretary of Government Flávia Arruda (PL) is favoured to win over Conservative former Bolsonaro Secretary of the Family and Evangelical pastor Damares Alves (REP), leading by roughly 12%.
Goiás:
Governor- Right leaning Incumbent Governor Ronaldo Caiado (União) is favoured to win over Conservative/Evangelical former Mayor of Aparecida de Goiânia Gustavo Mendanha (PAT), leading by roughly 17%, but the margin is shrinking by the day and Governor Caiado should not feel safe.
Senator- Centre-Right 4 term former Governor Marconi Perillo (PSDB) is narrowly favoured over an array of Conservative candidates, including Congressman Waldir Oliveira (União), former Senator Wilder Morais (PL) , former Minister Alexandre Baldy (PP) and Congressman João Campos (REP).
I personally expect Macroni to lose to one of the Conservative candidates.
Mato Grosso:
Governor- Right leaning Incumbent Mauro Mendes (União) is expected to win outright in the 1st round
Senator- Right leaning Incumbent Wellington Fagundes (PL) is favoured to win re-election, leading by 30%.
Mato Grosso do Sul:
Governor- Former Governor André Puccinelli (MDB), Right wing/Conservative State Representative Renan Contar (PRTB) , Eduardo Riedel (PSDB) , Former Mayor of Campo Grande Marquinhos Trad (PSD) and Centre-Right Congresswoman Rose Modesto (União) are locked in a tight 5 way fight.
Senator- Conservative former Bolsonaro Minister of Agriculture and general Agribusiness stan Tereza Cristina (PP) is favoured to beat former Federal Judge Odilon de Oliveira (PSD), leading by more then 15%.
Northeastern Brazil:
Alagoas:
Governor- Incumbent Governor Paulo Dantas (MDB) and his left leaning coalition are slightly favoured against right leaning Senator (and former President) Fernando Collor (PTB) and right leaning Senator Rodrigo Cunha (União) who are both fighting for the 2nd spot with Centre-right former Mayor of Maceió Rui Palmeira (PSD) not far behind them.
Senator-Former Governor and son of infamously corrupt Senator Renan Calheiros (MDB), junior (MDB) is far more popular and expected to be elected by a landslide against his opponents.
Bahia:
Governor-Conservative former mayor of Salvador and son of legendary right wing politician ACM (PFL) , ACM Neto (União) is a rising star who widely expected to be elected in the 1st or 2nd round with his Conservative coalition.
Senator- One of the most left wing politicians in Brazil that is still a member of the corruption above all parties, Incumbent Otto Alencar (PSD) is favoured to be re-elected because the right seems evenly split between 2 Conservative candidates, Congressman Cacá Leão (PP) and former Health Secretary of Porto Seguro (located in the southern part of the state) Dr. Raíssa Soares (PL)
Ceará:
Governor-Centre Right Congressman Captain Wagner (União) and his Conservative coalition seems poised to finish in 1st place, with a close fight to 2nd place between Centre-left former Mayor of Fortaleza Roberto Cláudio (PDT) and Lefty State Representative Elmano de Freitas (PT).
Should Cláudio finish in 2nd place then the 2nd round with Wagner is a toss up, but if Freitas finishes in 2nd place then Wagner is favoured to win.
Senator-Centre left to left leaning popular former Governor Camilo Santana (PT) expected to win more then 65(!) precent of the vote.
Maranhão:
Governor-Incumbent Governor and former member of various right leaning parties (PFL,PSDB,REP) Carlos Brandão (PSB) is narrowly favoured over Centre-left Senator Weverton Rocha (PDT) and Lahésio Bonfim (PSC)
Senator-Popular former Governor and former Communist Flávio Dino (PSB) is heavily favoured against right leaning incumbent Roberto Rocha (PTB), leading by 30%
Paraíba:
Governor- Centre Left Incumbent Governor João Azevêdo (PSB) is expected to finish 1st in the 1st round with a close race to 2nd place between Conservative Nilvan Ferreira (PL), Centre Right Congressman and son of former Senator Cássio Cunha (PSDB) Pedro Cunha (PSDB) and Senator and son of Senator Nilda Gondim (MDB) who came into office after him Veneziano Vital (MDB). It is unclear how each candidate would perform against Governor Azevêdo, but he is clearly in trouble.
Senator- Left leaning former Governor Ricardo Coutinho (PT) is narrowly favoured over right leaning Congressman and son of former Senator Efraim Morai (União) Jr (União), leading by slightly less then 10%.
Pernambuco:
Governor-Centre Left Congresswoman Marília Arraes (SD) is favoured to win and is expected to reach the 2nd round, however , the fight for 2nd place is essentially a 4 way tie between the Conservative former Mayor of Jaboatão dos Guararapes Anderson Ferreira (PL), Centre Left Congressman Danilo Cabral (PSB), Centre Right former Mayor of Petrolina Danilo Cabral (União) and Centrist former Mayor of Caruaru Raquel Lyra (PSDB).
Senator-Left leaning state Representative Teresa Leitão (PT) seems favoured to win at the moment, but the field is wide open and the polls contradict each other.
Piaui:
Governor- Lefty former State Minister of Finance Rafael Fonteles (PT) and right leaning former Mayor of Teresina Silvio Mendes (União) are each leading half of the polls in this toss-up race where polls seems to totally contradict one another.
Senator- lefty former Governor Wellington Diaz is strongly favoured to win.
Rio Grande do Norte:
Governor-Lefty Incumbent Fátima Bezerra (PT) is heavily favoured to win re-election.
Senator-Centre left former Mayor of Natal Carlos Eduardo Alves (PDT) is the VERY slight favourite over Conservative former Minister of Regional development and the creator of the controversial Labour Reform under former President Temer Rogério Marinho (PL), Eduardo is the very slight favourite at the moment but the wind seems to be in Marinho’s sails.
Sergipe:
There are frankly no credible polls from Sergipe at the moment, but the pro-Bolosonaro right seems to be doing surprisingly well
Southeastern Brazil:
Espírito Santo:
Governor-left leaning 2 term incumbent Renato Casagrande (PSB) is heavily favoured to win in the first round outright, getting more then 49% (including undecideds) in 3 out of the last 4 polls.
Senator-Ultra Conservative and well known Evangelical Theocrat former Senator Magno Malta (PL) is narrowly favoured to defeat Incumbent Senator Rose de Freitas (MDB), leading by roughly 7%.
Minas Gerais:
Governor-Right wing Incumbent Romeo Zema (Novo) is heavily favoured to win, with polls showing him closing in on the 50% benchmark required to avoid a 2nd round.
Senator- Right leaning Congressman Cleitinho Azevedo, Incumbent Senator Alexandre Silveira (PSD) and Conservative Congressman Marcelo Aro (PP) are locked in a 3 way fight, while Cleitinho is currently leading , the polls show a very high percentage of undecideds and only leading the other leading candidates by 7 and 10 precent respectively.
Rio de Janeiro:
Governor- Ultra Conservative Incumbent and Gospal singer Cláudio Castro (PL) is favoured to win against Champagne Socialist Congressman Marcelo Freixo (PSB), leading by roughly 10% and rising in the polls.
Senator- Right leaning Incumbent and legendary striker Romário (PL) is heavily favoured to win re-election against a fractured field, leading by roughly 20%.
São Paulo:
Governor- Lefty former Mayor of São Paulo and Presidential runner up Fernando Haddad is currently favoured to win, against Conservative former Bolsonaro Minister of Infrastructure Tarcísio de Freitas (REP) and Centre Right Incumbent Governor Rodrigo Garcia (PSDB). While Haddad is currently leading his opponents, he seems to be losing steam and has likely relied on his Universal name recognition to start with a large lead, so don’t be surprised if he ends up losing in the second round, especially against moderate and business friendly Incumbent Governor Garcia.
Senator- Centre left former Governor Márcio França (PSB) is favoured against Conservative former Technology Minister Marcos Pontes (PL) and Right wing
state representative Janaina Paschoal (PRTB), while Pontes seems to be gaining momentum and there are still a lot of undecideds, expect França’s business friendly image to help him win over moderate voters.
Southern Brazil:
Paraná:
Governor-Right leaning Incumbent governor and son of controversial right wing media persona and multimillionaire Ratinho (English translation is mouse/little mouse) Junior (PSD) and his Conservative coalition are favoured to win in the election outright in the 1st round,
Senator-Conservative former Federal Judge famous (or infamous) for operation Carwash and former Bolsonaro Minister of Justice Sergio Moro (União) is locked in a tight battle with Incumbent Alvaro Dias (PODE) with no clear leader, with Conservative Congressman Paulo Martins (PL) 10-20 precent behind them but surging.
Rio Grande do Sul:
Governor-Centre Right Incumbent Eduardo Leite (PSDB) is the slight favourite against Conservative former Bolsonaro Chief of Staff and Minister Onyx Lorenzoni (PL), leading by roughly 6%.
Senator- Conservative Vice President Hamilton Mourão (REP) is locked in a tight 3 way battle with leftist former Governor and Lula era Minister Olívio Dutra (PT) and Conservative former Senator Ana Amélia Lemos (PSD), with Mourão (26%), Dutra (27%) , Lamos (19%) all having a very decent chance of winning at the moment. I personally expect the race to end up as a 2 way race between Mourão and Dutra as Lamos seems to have stagnated while Dutra and Mourão keep rising.
Santa Catarina:
Governor- Conservative Incumbent Carlos Moisés (REP) is locked in a tight 4 way battle with right leaning Senator Jorginho Mello (PL) , right leaning former Mayor of Florianópolis Gean Loureiro (União) and Conservative Senator and former Governor Esperidião Amin (PP), the race is extremely unpredictable at the moment and all 4 candidates could end up finishing first to fourth place.
Senator- Former Governor Raimundo Colombo (PSD) and his Conservative coalition are locked in a tight battle with Conservative former Bolsonaro Secretary of Fishing and Aquaculture Jorge Seif (PL), I would personally not be surprised if one of the candidates ended up winning by a landslide.
