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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 3, 2022 6:51:22 GMT
Looks like Bolsonaro is going to change strategies in the 2nd round, focusing on declining crime rates and comparing Brazil to left-wing countries in Latin America. He is also expected to receive important endorsements and complaining from popular Governors like Romeu Zema (MG) and Claudio Castro (RJ). Why did he not adopt this strategy in the first round? Seems like the most obvious strategy for him. He'd be well-advised to hammer the line on the economy too. Current figures are very positive. |
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rcronald
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Post by rcronald on Oct 3, 2022 6:56:36 GMT
Looks like Bolsonaro is going to change strategies in the 2nd round, focusing on declining crime rates and comparing Brazil to left-wing countries in Latin America. He is also expected to receive important endorsements and complaining from popular Governors like Romeu Zema (MG) and Claudio Castro (RJ). Why did he not adopt this strategy in the first round? Seems like the most obvious strategy for him. Because he needed to make sure that the Evangelical vote is firm and tried (unsuccessfully) to get the poor NE vote by talking about benefits (which alienated fiscal Conservatives). |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 3, 2022 6:58:35 GMT
Jose Serra and Eduardo Cunha have failed to get elected into the lower chamber, humiliating end for 2 big beasts.
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Post by ibfc on Oct 3, 2022 7:21:21 GMT
Why did he not adopt this strategy in the first round? Seems like the most obvious strategy for him. He'd be well-advised to hammer the line on the economy too. Current figures are very positive. Yeah, a Lula win would be great for the Indian markets. EM allocations will increase a fair bit  |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 3, 2022 7:59:15 GMT
Senate composition change:
Right +10
Centre -10
Left - no change
Acre - Right hold
Alagoas - Centre hold
Amapa - Right hold
Amazonas - Centre hold
Bahia - Centre hold
Ceara - Left gain from Centre
Federal District - Right gain from Centre
Espírito Santo - Right gain from Centre
Goias- Right hold
Maranhão - Left gain from Right (sort of)
Mato Grosso - Right hold
Mato Grosso do Sul - Right gain from Centre
Minas Gerais - Right gain from Centre
Parana - Right gain from Centre
Paraiba-Right gain from Centre
Para - Left hold
Pernambuco - Left gain from Centre (sort of)
Piaui - Left gain from Right
Rio de Janeiro - Right hold (sort of)
Rio Grande do Norte - Right gain from left
Rio Grande do Sul - Right gain from Centre (sort of)
Rondônia - Right gain from left
Roraima - Right gain from left
São Paulo - Right gain from Centre
Santa Catarina - Right gain from left (sort of)
Sergipe - Right hold
Tocantins - Right hold (de-facto right gain from left)
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Post by rcronald on Oct 3, 2022 8:56:22 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 3, 2022 8:59:54 GMT
Jose Serra and Eduardo Cunha have failed to get elected into the lower chamber, humiliating end for 2 big beasts. News that all Brazilians can get behind. |
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Post by iain on Oct 3, 2022 9:13:51 GMT
I'm struggling to add this into my post annoyingly, but here is a map of the change in Bolsonaro's first round vote: ibb.co/HgYV37h |
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 3, 2022 9:16:39 GMT
I was fearing that when my son returns to Brazil next week it would be in the middle of a Bolsonaro "march on the capitol" Trump style , but in a more extreme form than Trump ever attempted. Now it looks as though his visit to his family and friends (in interior Pernambuco state, so Lula heartland country) will be in the tense period between the first and second rounds.
Which is a relief, I suppose.
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Post by rcronald on Oct 3, 2022 10:31:53 GMT
Results for the lower chamber: change from Yesterday
PL - 99 (+23) - Right to Far right (Bolsonarism) - 16.54% - 19.3% of seats
PT - 68 (+12) - Centre Left to Left wing (Lulism) - 13.93% (part of an alliance with PV+PCdoB) - 13.2% of seats
União - 59 (+8) - Centre Right (Economic Liberalism) - 9.31% - 11.5% of seats
PP - 47 (-11) - Centre Right to Right wing (National Conservatism) - 7.9% - 9.2% of seats
PSD - 42 (-4) - Centre Right to Right wing (South) Centre to Centre Left (North) - 7.55% - 8.2% of seats
MDB - 42 (+5) - Catch All (Catch All) - 7.25% - 8.2% of seats
REP - 41 (-3) - Right wing (Christian Right) - 6.91% - 8% of seats
PDT - 17 (-2) - Centre left (Developmentalism) - 3.49% - 3.3% of seats
PSB - 14 (-10) - Centre left (Social Democracy) - 3.81% - 2.7% of seats
PSDB - 13 (-10) - Centre to Centre Right (Liberalism) - 4.54% (part of an alliance with CID) - 2.5% of seats
PSOL - 12 (+4) - Left wing to Far left (New Left) - 4.22% (part of an alliance with REDE) - 2.3% of seats
PODE - 12 (+3) - Centre (Direct Democracy) - 3.28% - 2.3% of seats
Avante - 7 (+1) - Centre (Christian Democracy) - 2% - 1.4% of seats
All the parties below have lost their funding:
PSC - 6 (-2) - Right wing to Far right (Christian Right) - 1.77% - 1.2% of seats
PCdoB - 6 (-2) - Left wing to Far left (Communism) - part of an alliance with PT+PV - 1.2% of seats
PV - 6 (+2) - Centre Left (Green Politics) - part of an alliance with PT+PCdoB - 1.2% of seats
CID - 5 (-1) - Centre to Centre Left (Social Liberalism/Third Way) - part of an alliance with PSDB - 0.97% of seats
SOD - 4 (-4) - Centre (Labourism) - 1.57% - 0.78% of the seats
PAT - 4 (-1) - Right wing to Far right (Nationalism) - 1.4% - 0.78% of seats
Novo - 3 (-5) - Right wing (Libertarianism) - 1.23% - 0.58% of seats
PROS - 3 (-1) - Catch All (Catch All) - 0.97% - 0.58% of seats
REDE - 2 (-) - Centre left (Enviromentalism) - part of an alliance with PSOL - 0.39% of seats
PTB - 1 (-2) - Far Right (Militarism) - 1.3% - 0.19% of seats
Right wing Parties - 260 (+7) - 46.36% - 50.68% of seats
Left Wing Parties - 125 (+4) - 25.45% - 24.37% of seats
Centrão (usually Centre to Centre Right parties) - 111 - 22.62% - 21.64%
Moderate - 18 (-11) - 4.54% - 3.5%
The real big change is when you compare it to 2018 rather then October 1st 2022.
2022 (2018)
Right - 260 (+43)
Left - 124 (-26)
Centrão - 111 (+5)
Moderate - 18 (-22)
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Post by rcronald on Oct 3, 2022 12:10:59 GMT
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Post by minionofmidas on Oct 3, 2022 13:07:39 GMT
the left relied too heavily on the personal disapproval of Bolsonaro, ignoring the obvious fatigue the Brazilian electorate has with the left itself. I mean, if they had to wheel out Lula again to defeat Bolsonaro... Does someone have a link to a municipal result map? I want to confirm my prejudices about what's the matter with Roraima. |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 3, 2022 13:47:04 GMT
the left relied too heavily on the personal disapproval of Bolsonaro, ignoring the obvious fatigue the Brazilian electorate has with the left itself. I mean, if they had to wheel out Lula again to defeat Bolsonaro... Does someone have a link to a municipal result map? I want to confirm my prejudices about what's the matter with Roraima. Pretty sure Bolsonaro won every municipality except 1. especiaisg1.globo/politica/eleicoes/2022/mapas/mapa-da-apuracao-no-brasil-presidente/1-turno/ |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 3, 2022 13:55:02 GMT
Elec.res. of regions, subRegions and states:   %-deViations from national average:  |
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 3, 2022 13:55:20 GMT
2022 vs. 2018, round I:  vs. round II:  I put MDB, Uniao/PSDB, Novo into the right and Ciro Gomes (PDT) into the left camp - what is not entirely correct, of course (but does anyWay not play a huge role). |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 3, 2022 13:57:12 GMT
As expected, the wealthy&urban SE (SaoPaulo, Rio) swung sharply to the left, whereas the poor NE and N trended to the right.
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Post by rcronald on Oct 3, 2022 14:03:17 GMT
As expected, the wealthy&urban SE (SaoPaulo, Rio) swung sharply to the left, whereas the poor NE and N trended to the right. I think some of the swing in Rio is residual Evangelical strength Lula has from the 00s, especially with Castro winning by 30%. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Oct 3, 2022 14:20:46 GMT
which is one of the most heavily indigenous municipalities of Brazil - but Bolsonaro won the three other majority indigenous municipalities up there in the north of the state. The capital totally dominates the state demographically and gave Bolsonaro an even bigger share of the vote than the state, so that was much as expected (settler economy, settler politics basically, see also Acre and Rondonia) but the crass divide at the state line looks more like machine politics (on both sides of the line). Which doesn't gel too well with how stable the pattern is, as stable since 2006 as the map in general. Further study required. Whenever. |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 3, 2022 14:38:19 GMT
which is one of the most heavily indigenous municipalities of Brazil - but Bolsonaro won the three other majority indigenous municipalities up there in the north of the state. The capital totally dominates the state demographically and gave Bolsonaro an even bigger share of the vote than the state, so that was much as expected (settler economy, settler politics basically, see also Acre and Rondonia) but the crass divide at the state line looks more like machine politics (on both sides of the line). Which doesn't gel too well with how stable the pattern is, as stable since 2006 as the map in general. Further study required. Whenever. Aziz putting in the necessary machine work almost certainly helped Lula in the Amazonas, he won’t have that privilege in the 2nd round… |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 3, 2022 16:22:22 GMT
Why did he not adopt this strategy in the first round? Seems like the most obvious strategy for him. Because he needed to make sure that the Evangelical vote is firm and tried (unsuccessfully) to get the poor NE vote by talking about benefits (which alienated fiscal Conservatives). The Lula campaign is planning on heavily featuring Socially Conservative Evangelical Marina De Silva, a clear attempt to stop the bleeding with religious voters. |
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