CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,720
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 4, 2022 19:46:18 GMT
"religious". There is nothing religious about the naked cult of wealth and money that is called prosperity gospel. Many of them voted Lulu and Dilma, so I doubt all of them are prosperity gospel types, I suspect they voted left until 2018 mostly as a vote against the Liberal PSDB and selecting Alckmin probably backfired with them. Of course, both Bolsanaro and Lula are Catholics, though the former's wife and two of his sons are evangelicals. Lula has quite a strong faith, which he is very eloquent and learned in discussing. I have never heard Mr Bolsonaro talk much about it beyond attending evangelical rallies. |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 4, 2022 19:56:33 GMT
Many of them voted Lulu and Dilma, so I doubt all of them are prosperity gospel types, I suspect they voted left until 2018 mostly as a vote against the Liberal PSDB, and selecting Alckmin probably backfired with them. Of course, both Bolsanaro and Lula are Catholics, though the former's wife and two of his sons are evangelicals. Lula has quite a strong faith, which he is very eloquent and learned in discussing. I have never heard Mr Bolsonaro talk much about it beyond attending evangelical rallies. If you compare state elections (Senate/Governor) with the presidential election, it is crystal clear that Lula still manages to get some religious evangelical (and other socially Conservative) votes in a way no other member of the Brazilian left can. Unfortunately for him, Dilma made some major missteps with Social Conservatives, and combined with her general incompetence, she essentially destroyed the alliance Lula worked so hard to build. Btw, out of all the “left-wing” leaders in South America, Lula is the one I like and respect the most by far. He was a pragmatic and competent leader who despite all of his flaws (corruption, running up the deficit, and more) steered Brazil in a better direction. I think he made a major mistake in picking his successor and should have let a left-leaning candidate from another party (AKA Ciro Gomes) succeed him. |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 4, 2022 20:33:36 GMT
The federal PSDB, MDB and PSD are going to be neutral in the 2md round, giving their state parties the option to choose a candidate or remain neutral.
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Post by rcronald on Oct 5, 2022 13:25:15 GMT
The governor/mayor of the Federal District Ibaneis Rocha (MDB), has endorsed Bolsonaro.
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Post by rcronald on Oct 5, 2022 14:01:35 GMT
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Post by rcronald on Oct 5, 2022 15:56:47 GMT
The governor/mayor of the Federal District Ibaneis Rocha (MDB), has endorsed Bolsonaro. In a not unexpected blow to Bolsonaro, the popular governor of Para Helder Barbalho (MDB) has endorsed Lula (he has appeared in pro-Lula event like a month ago but never made his endorsement official). Former President Michel Temer (MDB) has endorsed Tricario (REP) for SP governor and is expected to endorse Bolsonaro as well, while former president FHC (PSDB) has endorsed Lula (he has also endorsed Haddad in 2018). |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 5, 2022 16:27:53 GMT
The governor/mayor of the Federal District Ibaneis Rocha (MDB), has endorsed Bolsonaro. In a not unexpected blow to Bolsonaro, the popular governor of Para (re-elected with 70% of the vote) Helder Barbalho (MDB) has endorsed Lula (he has appeared in pro-Lula event like a month ago but never made his endorsement official). Former President Michel Temer (MDB) has endorsed Tricario (REP) for SP governor and is expected to endorse Bolsonaro as well, while former president FHC (PSDB) has endorsed Lula (he has also endorsed Haddad in 2018). The popular governor of Parana (re-elected with 69% of the vote) Ratinho Jr (PSD) has (unsurprisingly) endorsed Bolsonaro. |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 5, 2022 17:39:09 GMT
In a not unexpected blow to Bolsonaro, the popular governor of Para (re-elected with 70% of the vote) Helder Barbalho (MDB) has endorsed Lula (he has appeared in pro-Lula event like a month ago but never made his endorsement official). Former President Michel Temer (MDB) has endorsed Tricario (REP) for SP governor and is expected to endorse Bolsonaro as well, while former president FHC (PSDB) has endorsed Lula (he has also endorsed Haddad in 2018). The popular governor of Parana (re-elected with 69% of the vote) Ratinho Jr (PSD) has (unsurprisingly) endorsed Bolsonaro. The Agro caucus has (unsurprisingly) endorsed Bolsonaro. |
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813 
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 5, 2022 17:57:26 GMT
Regional deViations of the PT-presidentialCandidates (measured at valid votes) - state-% minus Brazil-%:  - state-% divided by Brazil-%:  |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 6, 2022 4:59:57 GMT
Regional deViations of the PT-presidentialCandidates (measured at valid votes) - state-% minus Brazil-%: - state-% divided by Brazil-%: Sao Paulo is basically the only state that is trending leftward. |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 6, 2022 8:03:24 GMT
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Post by rcronald on Oct 6, 2022 10:20:49 GMT
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 6, 2022 10:35:44 GMT
Sao Paulo is basically the only state that is trending leftward. Well, only SaoPaulo surely sharply & strongly. But to some extent the whole South(East) has (plus Mato Grosso do Sul, Goiás & D.F.; minus Espirito Santo). My assumptions are - as usual - contrary to those of the opinio communis: When PT dominated, i was pessimistic for them as they became increasingly the party of the NorthEast. Whereas now a post-PT Left (around Gomes/Silva/... with PDT/PSOL/PV/...) might be on its way to dominate Brazil. Why? If it turns into woke Left vs. populist Right, the latter might hold the CenterWest, dominate the North and regain the NorthEast - but it's hard to win against the elites in&around SP. After all the PT was before 2006 also not, what the lefties here in Europe pretend - the party of the LumpenProletariat in the NorthEast -, but of the urban South(East). Traditionally Brazil has had a "withered" atmoSphere - perhaps caused by the saudadeMentality of the Portuguese and/or the climate -, i.e. favouring moderate parties (something like MDB would be hard to imagine in nearly all Spanish countries). As soon as Lula will retire the Left - Gomes/PSOL/PV/... - |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 6, 2022 10:39:27 GMT
Sao Paulo is basically the only state that is trending leftward. Well, only SaoPaulo surely sharply & strongly. But to some extent the whole South(East) has (plus Mato Grosso do Sul, Goiás & D.F.; minus Espirito Santo). My assumptions are - as usual - contrary to those of the opinio communis: When PT dominated, i was pessimistic for them as they became increasingly the party of the NorthEast. Whereas now a post-PT Left (around Gomes/Silva/... with PDT/PSOL/PV/...) might be on its way to dominate Brazil. Why? If it turns into woke Left vs. populist Right, the latter might hold the CenterWest, dominate the North and regain the NorthEast - but it's hard to win against the elites in&around SP. After all the PT was before 2006 also not, what the lefties here in Europe pretend - the party of the LumpenProletariat in the NorthEast -, but of the urban South(East). Traditionally Brazil has had a "withered" atmoSphere - perhaps caused by the saudadeMentality of the Portuguese and/or the climate -, i.e. favouring moderate parties (something like MDB would be hard to imagine in nearly all Spanish countries). As soon as Lula will retire the Left - Gomes/PSOL/PV/... - Gomes and Silva are not what I would describe as woke left…. (Ciro is a sexist wife beater and Silva is a SocCon). Btw, the religious right just defeated the woke left in Rio by 30%, so I’m not sure woke left would do so well…. |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 6, 2022 18:01:12 GMT
In a not unexpected blow to Bolsonaro, the popular governor of Para (re-elected with 70% of the vote) Helder Barbalho (MDB) has endorsed Lula (he has appeared in pro-Lula event like a month ago but never made his endorsement official). Former President Michel Temer (MDB) has endorsed Tricario (REP) for SP governor and is expected to endorse Bolsonaro as well, while former president FHC (PSDB) has endorsed Lula (he has also endorsed Haddad in 2018). The popular governor of Parana (re-elected with 69% of the vote) Ratinho Jr (PSD) has (unsurprisingly) endorsed Bolsonaro. 6 more governors have endorsed Bolsonaro: Antonio Denarium (PP-Roraima),Ronaldo Caiado (União-Goias), Mauro Mendes (União-Mato Grosso),Gladston Cameli (PP-Acre),Marcos Rocha (União-Rondonia) and Wilson Lima (União-Amazonas). Caiado, a noted “frienemy” of Bolsonaro attacked the president of the party Luciano Bivar for forcing União into neutrality because of a personal feud with Bolsonaro (I suspect he is correct along with the fact that they have a real chance of gaining Bahia and probably don’t want to hurt ACM) despite the fact that all União governors and almost all of their members in Congress support Bolsonaro. Podemos and the Mayor of São Paulo Ricardo Nunez (MDB) have announced their Neutrality in the Presidential race, but also announced their support for Tarcísio (REP) in the São Paulo gubernatorial race. |
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 6, 2022 19:06:25 GMT
Well, only SaoPaulo surely sharply & strongly. But to some extent the whole South(East) has (plus Mato Grosso do Sul, Goiás & D.F.; minus Espirito Santo). My assumptions are - as usual - contrary to those of the opinio communis: When PT dominated, i was pessimistic for them as they became increasingly the party of the NorthEast. Whereas now a post-PT Left (around Gomes/Silva/... with PDT/PSOL/PV/...) might be on its way to dominate Brazil. Why? If it turns into woke Left vs. populist Right, the latter might hold the CenterWest, dominate the North and regain the NorthEast - but it's hard to win against the elites in&around SP. After all the PT was before 2006 also not, what the lefties here in Europe pretend - the party of the LumpenProletariat in the NorthEast -, but of the urban South(East). Traditionally Brazil has had a "withered" atmoSphere - perhaps caused by the saudadeMentality of the Portuguese and/or the climate -, i.e. favouring moderate parties (something like MDB would be hard to imagine in nearly all Spanish countries). As soon as Lula will retire the Left - Gomes/PSOL/PV/... - Gomes and Silva are not what I would describe as woke left…. (Ciro is a sexist wife beater and Silva is a SocCon). Btw, the religious right just defeated the woke left in Rio by 30%, so I’m not sure woke left would do so well…. Both are certainly not perfectly woke, but are partly. Similar to Brazil itself, which is - like LatinAmerica as a whole - quite conservative in many issues, but then the line BuenosAires-MonteVideo-SaoPaulo is the most liberal (on the one hand proBusiness, on the other hand progressive) part of the continent. The ex-RedRio is less liberal (in both directions), nevertheless PT and the left candidates all together increased their %-share(s). |
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 6, 2022 19:06:40 GMT
The parliamentary election results, grouped by the parties' endorsements for presidential candidates. - Dep.chamber:  - Senate:  |
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,306
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Post by maxque on Oct 6, 2022 19:33:24 GMT
Well, only SaoPaulo surely sharply & strongly. But to some extent the whole South(East) has (plus Mato Grosso do Sul, Goiás & D.F.; minus Espirito Santo). My assumptions are - as usual - contrary to those of the opinio communis: When PT dominated, i was pessimistic for them as they became increasingly the party of the NorthEast. Whereas now a post-PT Left (around Gomes/Silva/... with PDT/PSOL/PV/...) might be on its way to dominate Brazil. Why? If it turns into woke Left vs. populist Right, the latter might hold the CenterWest, dominate the North and regain the NorthEast - but it's hard to win against the elites in&around SP. After all the PT was before 2006 also not, what the lefties here in Europe pretend - the party of the LumpenProletariat in the NorthEast -, but of the urban South(East). Traditionally Brazil has had a "withered" atmoSphere - perhaps caused by the saudadeMentality of the Portuguese and/or the climate -, i.e. favouring moderate parties (something like MDB would be hard to imagine in nearly all Spanish countries). As soon as Lula will retire the Left - Gomes/PSOL/PV/... - Gomes and Silva are not what I would describe as woke left…. (Ciro is a sexist wife beater and Silva is a SocCon). Btw, the religious right just defeated the woke left in Rio by 30%, so I’m not sure woke left would do so well…. Rio is a wierd and unusual case, I feel. It had wierd voting patterns since democracy happened. |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 6, 2022 21:18:01 GMT
Gomes and Silva are not what I would describe as woke left…. (Ciro is a sexist wife beater and Silva is a SocCon). Btw, the religious right just defeated the woke left in Rio by 30%, so I’m not sure woke left would do so well…. Rio is a wierd and unusual case, I feel. It had wierd voting patterns since democracy happened. Rio is just statist, it’s why they’ve always voted against PSDB and people like the Garotinho family thrive there. Btw, if you take a close at Leonel Brizola you’ll see that his post return to democracy version is eerily similar to a socialist Bolsonaro… |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 7, 2022 4:49:30 GMT
The Mayor of Porto Alegre, Sebastião Melo (MDB) has endorsed Bolsonaro while also declaring his neutrality in the gubernatorial race.
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