iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435 
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Post by iain on Oct 30, 2022 22:06:19 GMT
Lula now ahead. Surely that’s game over. Not convinced if its the south east still to come this time. I still say too close to call. It isn’t really. Plus, even in Bolsonaro states the later counted vote is more left wing than average. The least counted states (in order) Maranhao (left) Minas Gerais (50/50) Santa Catarina (right) Sao Paulo (right) Pernambuco (left) Alagoas (left) |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 30, 2022 22:07:50 GMT
Not convinced if its the south east still to come this time. I still say too close to call. It isn’t really. Plus, even in Bolsonaro states the later counted vote is more left wing than average. The least counted states (in order) Maranhao (left) Minas Gerais (50/50) Santa Catarina (right) Sao Paulo (right) Pernambuco (left) Alagoas (left) the remaining Alagoas vote is 50/50, but yes, game over. |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 30, 2022 22:10:01 GMT
Couple of Gubernatorial projections: Espírito Santo:Incumbent Renato Casagrande (PSB) Mato Grosso do Sul: Eduardo Reidel (PSDB) Amazonas: Wilson Lima (União) Rio Grande do Sul: Eduardo Leite (PSDB) Santa Catarina: Jorginho Mello (PL) Paraiba: João Azevêdo (PSB) Pernambuco: Raquel Lyra (PSDB) Rondônia: Marcos Rocha (União) |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435
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Post by iain on Oct 30, 2022 22:10:58 GMT
90% in and Lula now leads by over 1,000,000 votes (1%).
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Post by relique on Oct 30, 2022 22:13:36 GMT
Bolsonaro out of power remains good news, but I fear the brazilian left has taken the occidental route and that is not good at all... It might be a very short and limited victory..
What's weird to me is that the other south american left don't seem to take the same road (Chilean left might have tried but the result of the referendum might have made them wake up)
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Post by rcronald on Oct 30, 2022 22:13:43 GMT
90% in and Lula now leads by over 1,000,000 votes (1%). Game over, wouldn’t be surprised if Lula succumbed to petista pressure to imprison his enemies (Bolsonaro,Moro,Nogouira). |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Oct 30, 2022 22:14:00 GMT
He's won then. For the best given the Amazon. Though I don't envy Brazilians. A corrupt socialist and the likely, if he won again, beginning of an autocratic dynasty was not the best choice.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,723
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 30, 2022 22:18:14 GMT
He's won then. For the best given the Amazon. Though I don't envy Brazilians. A corrupt socialist and the likely, if he won again, beginning of an autocratic dynasty was not the best choice. Lordy, he isn't corrupt - the corruption was from the judge who imprisoned him to prevent him from standing against Bolsonaro last time. |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 30, 2022 22:18:21 GMT
He's won then. For the best given the Amazon. Though I don't envy Brazilians. A corrupt socialist and the likely, if he won again, beginning of an autocratic dynasty was not the best choice. It’s Brazil, with a Congress that is control by the agricultural sector, the Amazon is still going to get destroyed. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Oct 30, 2022 22:18:44 GMT
Bolsonaro out of power remains good news, but I fear the brazilian left has taken the occidental route and that is not good at all... It might be a very short and limited victory.. What's weird to me is that the other south american left don't seem to take the same road (Chilean left might have tried but the result of the referendum might have made them wake up) Occidental? |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,723
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 30, 2022 22:19:40 GMT
Bolsonaro out of power remains good news, but I fear the brazilian left has taken the occidental route and that is not good at all... It might be a very short and limited victory.. What's weird to me is that the other south american left don't seem to take the same road (Chilean left might have tried but the result of the referendum might have made them wake up) Occidental? Well, it sounds so much more educated than Western. does it not? |
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 30, 2022 22:19:57 GMT
I have been cautious to the end but yes, it looks beyond doubt that Lula has won, but I doubt Bolsanaro sees it that way.
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Post by rcronald on Oct 30, 2022 22:20:19 GMT
He's won then. For the best given the Amazon. Though I don't envy Brazilians. A corrupt socialist and the likely, if he won again, beginning of an autocratic dynasty was not the best choice. Lordy, he isn't corrupt - the corruption was from the judge who imprisoned him to prevent him from standing against Bolsonaro last time. I mean, he is corrupt. It’s just that every “judge” and every other mainstream politician in Brazil is also corrupt. |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 30, 2022 22:23:54 GMT
Paraiba: João Azevêdo (PSB) Pernambuco: Raquel Lyra (PSDB) Rondônia: Marcos Rocha (União) Alagoas: Paulo Dantas Bahia: Jerônimo |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,723
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 30, 2022 22:24:57 GMT
Lordy, he isn't corrupt - the corruption was from the judge who imprisoned him to prevent him from standing against Bolsonaro last time. I mean, he is corrupt. It’s just that every “judge” and every other mainstream politician I’m Brazil is also corrupt. Is he? Based on what? Most independent research argues that he wasn't, though many of the politicians supporting him were - the fact that so many of those formerly on the "centre and centre-left" who detest Bolsinaro, but backed him in the second round this time due to fear of prosecution tells you much about them. |
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 30, 2022 22:25:16 GMT
He's won then. For the best given the Amazon. Though I don't envy Brazilians. A corrupt socialist and the likely, if he won again, beginning of an autocratic dynasty was not the best choice. Lordy, he isn't corrupt - the corruption was from the judge who imprisoned him to prevent him from standing against Bolsonaro last time. I don't think Lula is corrupt, by Brazilian standards. |
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Post by matureleft on Oct 30, 2022 22:27:38 GMT
Good luck to him. He faces a largely hostile chamber and senate and a pretty strong opposition at state level. Sounds like a recipe for rancour and stalemate but Lula has some wider appeal as is evidenced by his win and politics can be quite fluid (sometimes for the wrong reasons!).
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Post by rcronald on Oct 30, 2022 22:28:59 GMT
It’s no secret that I am personally fond of Lula (although I did lose some respect for him during the campaign), but if he lets the psychopaths in his party (Hoffmann and other barking mad dogs) take control and imprison his enemies than a coup should happen.
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Post by rcronald on Oct 30, 2022 22:32:07 GMT
Looking forward to 2026, Romeu Zema and Cláudio Castro seem like strong candidates from the 2 main wings of the right.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,723
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 30, 2022 22:32:26 GMT
It’s no secret that I am personally fond of Lula (although I did lose some respect for him during the campaign), but if he lets the psychopaths in his party (Hofmann) take control and imprison his enemies than a coup should happen. In a democracy, a coup "should" never happen. |
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