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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Oct 30, 2022 19:24:21 GMT
Concerning, but did anyone really expect anything less from Bolsonaro? It was obvious he'd try something.
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 30, 2022 19:43:01 GMT
Concerning, but did anyone really expect anything less from Bolsonaro? It was obvious he'd try something. I have a personal concern. My son is today on his way to Recife airport to fly home! |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435 
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Post by iain on Oct 30, 2022 19:44:15 GMT
A few benchmarks from the first round:
4.5% in: Bolsonaro 48.84%, Lula 42.07%
8.1% in: Bolsonaro 48.51%, Lula 42.64%
13.2% in: Bolsonaro 48.02%, Lula 43.24%
25.8% in: Bolsonaro 47.74%, Lula 43.49%
35.5% in: Bolsonaro 47.34%, Lula 43.86%
46.5% in: Bolsonaro 46.69%, Lula 44.47%
54.6% in: Bolsonaro 46.31%, Lula 44.87%
70.0% in: Lula 45.74%, Bolsonaro 45.51%
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 30, 2022 19:59:12 GMT
Concerning, but did anyone really expect anything less from Bolsonaro? It was obvious he'd try something. I have a personal concern. My son is today on his way to Recife airport to fly home! My current flatmate, a Phd student at Kings, is from Recife. He's not terribly optimistic about the state of politics in Brazil. 
He's not fond of either of the main two candidates but thinks there will be trouble if Bolsonaro loses.
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 30, 2022 20:21:57 GMT
I have a personal concern. My son is today on his way to Recife airport to fly home! My current flatmate, a Phd student at Kings, is from Recife. He's not terribly optimistic about the state of politics in Brazil.
He's not fond of either of the main two candidates but thinks there will be trouble if Bolsonaro loses. By the sound of it, it's already started. My son's friends & family connections ( basically his partner's family, etc)are deep in the interior of Pernambuco state which is very much Lula country, but he reckons Recife is Bolsonaro land, though that may be influenced by the big seafront Condos where wealthy Parnambucans live, but surely there is a very different Recife behind that. This visit has only been to Pernambuco, but he has a lot of friends in other parts of Brazil, especially SP state, where he himself lived for some years, employed by the Brazilian government. His partner is I think remaining in the interior because her mother is very seriously ill ( she has leprosy among other things) but my son will be coming come as he needs to resume work. |
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,824
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 30, 2022 20:25:58 GMT
Bolsonaro is only at 55% with 3% counted - seems to be over for him.
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435
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Post by iain on Oct 30, 2022 20:28:46 GMT
Certainly looking good for Lula atm.
Crudely, he needs to overperform by 1.7% from the first round to win.
Currently, at 4.4% in, Lula is at 46.1%, in the first round at 4.5% in he was at 42.1%.
In Brasilia he was at 36.9% at the end of the count, he is at 40.9% there now with 3/4 of the vote in.
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Post by rcronald on Oct 30, 2022 20:33:01 GMT
Bolsonaro seems to be overperformed his first round margin with Lula, but not by enough for him to actually win.
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Post by rcronald on Oct 30, 2022 20:42:59 GMT
Something interesting, Lula is going to get what he needs out of Brazilian (aka more than 1.6%) but probably not out of Tocantins.
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 30, 2022 20:44:58 GMT
I would urge a little caution. The areas declaring early are not typical of what's to come, obviously. They were among the strongest areas for Bolsonaro, of course, and so far the Lula vote looks sufficiently up in those areas for an overall win. But we need to see how the better Lula areas perform- are there enough extra votes in such areas, which is not a given.
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435
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Post by iain on Oct 30, 2022 20:45:11 GMT
Something interesting, Lula is going to get what he needs out of Brazilian (aka more than 1.6%) but not out of Tocantins. He’s 1.4% up on his first round performance on Tocantins, and I’d expect him to make up more than 0.2% on the last quarter of the vote. That said, the Distrito Federal performance is clearly much stronger (though there was more third party vote there than most places in the country). |
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Post by Old Fashioned Leftie on Oct 30, 2022 20:47:13 GMT
According to The Guardian with 15% counted its:
Jair Bolsonaro 51.6%
Lula 48.4%
So looking good for Lula
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nelson
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,645
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Post by nelson on Oct 30, 2022 20:48:20 GMT
Apparently more NE votes among the early vote than usual, so not as good for Lula as it looks.
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Post by adlai52 on Oct 30, 2022 20:50:41 GMT
Is there an English language live blog of the results?
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Post by Old Fashioned Leftie on Oct 30, 2022 20:57:07 GMT
According to The Guardian with 15% counted its: Jair Bolsonaro 51.6% Lula 48.4% So looking good for Lula Lula is catching 51.3% 48.7% at 23% count |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435
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Post by iain on Oct 30, 2022 21:00:34 GMT
This guy is projecting based on municipality. The Lula final percentage prediction has been coming down pretty quickly.
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 30, 2022 21:06:50 GMT
I still really think "too close to call" just about sums it up.
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Post by Old Fashioned Leftie on Oct 30, 2022 21:15:05 GMT
According to The Guardian with 15% counted its: Jair Bolsonaro 51.6% Lula 48.4% So looking good for Lula Lula is catching 51.3% 48.7% at 23% count at 37% 50.8% 49.3% |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 30, 2022 21:22:52 GMT
Couple of Gubernatorial projections:
Espírito Santo:Incumbent Renato Casagrande (PSB)
Mato Grosso do Sul: Eduardo Reidel (PSDB)
Amazonas: Wilson Lima (União)
Rio Grande do Sul: Eduardo Leite (PSDB)
Santa Catarina: Jorginho Mello (PL)
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435
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Post by iain on Oct 30, 2022 21:24:16 GMT
Mato Grosso do Sul- Conservative state representative Renan Contar (PRTB) is slightly favoured over right leaning Eduardo Reidel (PSDB). First race call, and it’s a win for Reidel. |
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