State of play in Brazil 12 days before the 2nd round:
Before we start:
1. I enjoy following Brazilian politics but am definitely not an expert.
2. If you see one of the following party labels: MDB, PSD, PODE, Avante, PROS, and Agir then unless noted otherwise the politician has no ideology and is usually just for corruption and pork politics.
Parties like PP, PL, and PTB used to be the same but became significantly more ideologically coherent (aka, right-wing) during the last 3 years.
3. Brazil tends to have wild swings during the campaign and someone who is leading by 10% today is definitely not safe.
4. There have barely been any 2nd round polls for the gubernatorial races, so I shall rely more on endorsements by machine politicians and how the campaigns themselves have been going since the end of the first round.
5. Most states (14+DF) are not having a 2nd round because a candidate received more than 50% of the vote.
Alagoas:
Incumbent (technically not in office) Governor Paulo Dantas (MDB) and his left-leaning coalition are slightly favoured against right-leaning Senator Rodrigo Cunha (União). The election is essentially a shadow fight between 2 of Alagoas’s most prominent political figures (and families), the Calheiros family led by the notoriously corrupt former President of the Senate (and still incumbent Senator) Renan Calheiros (MDB) and the Lira family led by notorious domestic abuser and Speaker of the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies Artur Lira (PP), Lira is planning to run against Renan in 2026 and has been massively expanding his machine in recent years clearly preparing for 2026. Despite leading by 10% in the only poll released so far, I have Dantas as only the slight favourite as he’s been removed from office a week ago by the Supreme Court for corruption as there’s a video of his former speaker of the Alagoas Assembly father stating that Paulo stole money while he was in the assembly and forged his father’s signature to illegally take resources from the state, and also had his net worth increasing by 550% during his 3 years in office as a state representative.
Amazonas:
Right-leaning Incumbent Governor Wilson Lima (União) is favoured against Senator and former Governor Eduardo Braga (MDB) who has most of the machine support but is trailing by 14%.
Bahia:
Left-leaning Bahia Secretary of Education Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) is narrowly favoured against the former Mayor of Salvador and grandson of the legendary ACM (PFL), ACM Neto (União). Despite running neck and neck in the polls, the right and left getting 50% each in the 1st round and ACM running a significantly better 2nd round campaign, I have Jerônimo as the slight favourite for 2 reasons, 1. ACM made some major errors in the 1st round and the electorate seems unlikely to forget it 2. The awesome PT machine in Bahia is probably too much for him to overcome.
Espírito Santo:
Centre-Left Incumbent Renato Casagrande (PSB) is favoured against right-wing former Congressman Carlos Manato (PL), while the race has not had a single 2nd round poll and Casagrande won the first round by only 8%, I have him favoured as Manato has a reputation of madman even compared to the average Bolsonarista, leading some well known saner Bolsonaristas like popular Senator Marcos do Val (PODE) to endorse Casagrande along with all of the defeated candidates that received more than 1%.
Mato Grosso do Sul:
Right-wing state representative Renan Contar (PRTB) is favoured against right-leaning Eduardo Reidel (PSDB). Contar is favoured as he is leading in the polls by more than 10% and has surprisingly received the endorsement of the other major candidates, most of whom are right-leaning members of Centrão who want to make sure the PSDB is not in power.
Paraíba:
Centre-left Incumbent João Azevêdo (PSB) and Centre-right Congressman Pedro Cunha Lima (PSDB) are locked in a tight battle, with both candidates holding some advantages against the other, with Azevêdo winning the first round by 15.75% (39.65%-23.9%), Cunha receiving the endorsement of the 2 other major candidates and both candidates having equal machine support.
Pernambuco:
The Centrist Mayor of Caruaru, Raquel Lyra (PSDB) is heavily favoured over left-leaning Congresswoman and member of the legendary Arraes-Campos family, Marília Arraes (SD). Despite beating Lyra by 3% in the first round and receiving the endorsement of Lula, Arraes is trailing Lyra by double digits (and probably more than 20%) after making a series of major missteps regarding the aftermath of the death of Lyra’s husband who passed away on election night from a massive heart attack, Arraes refused to delay the 2nd round campaign in 3 days and let Lyra mourn her husband (she’s been with him since the age of 14) and instead aired attack ads against Lyra who was in no shape to respond and refused to go to the final burial of her opponent’s husband, this led to the public to view Arraes as a nasty person with no regard to the pain of others and (rightfully) tanked her campaign.
Rio Grande do Sul:
Centre-right Incumbent Eduardo Leite and Conservative former Bolsonaro Minister Onyx Lorenzoni (PL) are locked in a toss-up race, while Lorenzoni should have been the favourite due to his 10.7% first-round victory over Leite (37.5%-26.8%), he made two critical errors that may cost him the win 1. stating that RS is going to have a real man in the office and a real First Lady (Leite is gay) 2.Refusing to shake Leite’s hand after a debate. The 2nd round polls currently show the candidates tied ( 2 have Lorenzoni narrowly ahead and 2 have Leite narrowly ahead), however, the polls in RS showed Leite leading by 11% in the first round and he ended up losing by 11% instead…..
Rondônia:
Conservative Incumbent Marcos Rocha (União) and Conservative Senator
Marcos Rogério (PL) are evenly matched in this toss-up race, both having roughly the same amount of machine support and tying each other in the first round and the 2nd round polls. The right should prefer a Rocha win, as it would give them a potential future Senator and would not vacate them a valuable Senate seat like a Rogério win would.
São Paulo:
Conservative Bolsonaro Minister of Infrastructure Tarcísio de Freitas (REP) is heavily favoured against left-wing former Mayor of São Paulo and 2018 Presidential runner-up Fernando Haddad (PT), leading every poll by double digits, holding a massive machine advantage and runner a significantly better campaign then Haddad who seems to be vying for a job in a potential Lula administration rather than the Governorship of São Paulo.
Santa Catarina:
Right-leaning Senator Jorginho Mello (PL) is heavily favoured against lefty Temer era leader of the opposition in Congress Décio Lima (PT), Mello is not favoured just because he received the endorsement of all other major candidates nor is it just because he won in the first round by 21%, but mostly because he is a right-wing candidate against a Petista in what has to be the most Bolsonarist state in Brazil….
Sergipe:
In what has to be the most baffling race in Brazil, the first-place finisher, Conservative former Mayor of Itabaiana Valmir de Francisquinho (PL) is not in the 2nd round after being disqualified 1 day before the election (only to be dis-disqualified a week after the election) due to shady actions by 3rd place finisher, Centre-left Congressman Fábio Mitidieri (PSD). The unusual circumstances led de Francisquinho and President Bolsonaro to endorse 2nd place finisher left-leaning Senator Rogério Carvalho (PT), who is now favoured to win, to add fuel to the fire, should Carvalho win his replacement in the Senate is going to be Congressman Mitidieri’s brother…..
