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Post by Adam in Stroud on Nov 6, 2020 10:32:34 GMT
I'm pessimistic about a Biden presidency, given the economic outlook and the likelihood of GOP obstructionism in the Senate ad Supreme Court. But suppose Biden does what he's said he'd do and try to heal the nation? Suppose he dials down the woke rhetoric in his own party and reaches out to white working class and rural voters? Suppose he pumps money into the economy in his Green New Deal so that new jobs in renewable energy and in conversion of infrastructure to a post-carbon economy outstrip jobs in steel, coal and fracking (rather as Obama's push into fracking transformed the US energy market). He uses his Presidency to take control of the agenda. He inserts a crowbar into the rift that has oddly emerged between Trump and Fox News over this election. (Going out on a limb, suppose Rupert Murdoch dies within the next four years and a new generation takes over the Fox empire.) How does Trumpism look then? Meanwhile, suppose Trump, now stripped of Presidential immunity, has to face investigation into his tax affairs. Suppose the key finding of the Mueller enquiry - i.e. that Trump specifically could not be cleared of treason but that as incumbent President he could not be prosecuted, now lands on the desk of a Democratic Attorney General. A lot of supposing there. There's one certainty. Trump will be 4 years older. While he appears in fair health for a man of his age (and he's avoided some, but not all, of the things that would be likely to produce ill health - his diet seems bad) time's winged chariot is unstoppable.
Biden's governing success will have to be based on both building a moderate coalitiion and keeping his left at least reasonably content (or their facing the reality that the votes aren't there for their agenda). He's likely to appoint Republicans to key positions, and, I'd guess, he'll attempt to unpick McConnell's grip on his senators by finding some common grond with the few centrists. There are some potentially vulnerable GOP senators up in 2022 who might want to build a bipartisan CV. He knows the institution and its key players pretty well. And I'd expect his team to note the Latino results and think about their origins. Cuba yes, but almost certainly the appeal that keeping the economy going has to marginal workers in a state with minimal welfare provision. And there's little evidence that Latino voters are social radicals. And I'd guess that Biden's deliberately slightly socially distanced campaign made community engagement hard. Plenty to do, but these results show that their votes can move.
Finally, we ought to face the fact that parts of Trump's agenda made sense to the American people however poorly he explained and implemented it. We won't see a reversal of his economic natonalism. It might be carried through with more nuance and without the bombast. I'd be surprised if the approach to China changed radically although I'd expect it to be approached with much more partnership with allies. And I'd expect border control to remain robust but without the nastiness.
And, as every government does, he'll need some luck. A working vaccine and a return to something like normality.
Damn right. And I don't disagree with a lot of what Forfarshire Conservative says in his reply either. I'm just posing a counter-argument to what I see as emerging received wisdom that Biden's a lame duck before he's started. To note that the initiative is not entirely in Trump's hands. Biden has (I assume!) the Presidency, he has agency. There are opportunities to un-pick the culture war approaches on which Trumpism is based and we shouldn't write off Biden's chances of doing that before he's even started, especially as he's quite explicitly said that's what he wants to do. Confrontation with the President isn't a guaranteed vote winner for the GOP, as Clinton showed vs Gingrich. I can see some of the approaches you mention as possibly delivering what Trump supporters want but more effectively because the unnecessary abrasion is removed. On the point about the economy and workers in a low welfare economy, of course one answer is to improve welfare, starting with healthcare. Lack of welfare drives fear and insecurity and so is a gift to the right-wing populist - addressing that is not only good left-wing politics, it undermines the right. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 6, 2020 10:37:24 GMT
Trump will run again and win his second term facing a Biden who would have wanted to retire but felt compelled to give it one more go when the spectre returned to haunt his presidency. Post-2024 diplomacy will be shaped in the backroom deals his crumbling business empire makes to stay afloat over the next four years. Nah, I know you have a jaundiced view of the US polity (and that is extremely understandable and indeed justifiable) but the above ain't happening. The speed with which so much of the GOP establishment is throwing Trump under the bus right now is just one reason for that. |
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Post by matureleft on Nov 6, 2020 10:45:34 GMT
Trump will run again and win his second term facing a Biden who would have wanted to retire but felt compelled to give it one more go when the spectre returned to haunt his presidency. Post-2024 diplomacy will be shaped in the backroom deals his crumbling business empire makes to stay afloat over the next four years. Nah, I know you have a jaundiced view of the US polity (and that is extremely understandable and indeed justifiable) but the above ain't happening. The speed with which so much of the GOP establishment is throwing Trump under the bus right now is just one reason for that. More accurately, looking away as he stumbles under the bus. Romney and a few others with history have been stern about Trump's outbursts, but the majority reaction is to keep mum and see how it plays out. |
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johng
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Post by johng on Nov 6, 2020 11:23:03 GMT
Trump will run again and win his second term facing a Biden who would have wanted to retire but felt compelled to give it one more go when the spectre returned to haunt his presidency. Post-2024 diplomacy will be shaped in the backroom deals his crumbling business empire makes to stay afloat over the next four years. Nah, I know you have a jaundiced view of the US polity (and that is extremely understandable and indeed justifiable) but the above ain't happening. The speed with which so much of the GOP establishment is throwing Trump under the bus right now is just one reason for that. He wasn't the establishment's choice in 2016. He will not, under any circumstance, be their choice in 2024.
But it's the voters in Republican primaries and caucuses that will choose the next Republican candidate, not the establishment.
And who in the establishment is throwing him under the bus apart from the usual suspects?
I posted yesterday some potential 2024 candidate reactions to Don Jr's post. Haley, Hawley and Cotton were quick to jump on the bandwagon of Trump's mantra.
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Post by ibfc on Nov 6, 2020 11:45:47 GMT
No one is throwing Trump under the bus. Trump’s demands right now are unjustifiable and they are just letting him vent in the hope he’ll eventually calm down.
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Nov 6, 2020 11:46:06 GMT
There's also the possibility that if he falls out with the GOP too much, he will just decide to run as a 3rd party candidate. That would be ideal for the Democrats, leading to a 1992 type situation.
TRUMP WEST 2024
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Nov 6, 2020 11:46:42 GMT
No one is throwing Trump under the bus. Trump’s demands right now are unjustifiable and they are just letting him vent in the hope he’ll eventually calm down. Calm down or give himself enough rope. Either works. |
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Post by ibfc on Nov 6, 2020 11:50:52 GMT
I'm pessimistic about a Biden presidency, given the economic outlook and the likelihood of GOP obstructionism in the Senate ad Supreme Court. But suppose Biden does what he's said he'd do and try to heal the nation? Suppose he dials down the woke rhetoric in his own party and reaches out to white working class and rural voters? Suppose he pumps money into the economy in his Green New Deal so that new jobs in renewable energy and in conversion of infrastructure to a post-carbon economy outstrip jobs in steel, coal and fracking (rather as Obama's push into fracking transformed the US energy market). He uses his Presidency to take control of the agenda. He inserts a crowbar into the rift that has oddly emerged between Trump and Fox News over this election. (Going out on a limb, suppose Rupert Murdoch dies within the next four years and a new generation takes over the Fox empire.) How does Trumpism look then? Meanwhile, suppose Trump, now stripped of Presidential immunity, has to face investigation into his tax affairs. Suppose the key finding of the Mueller enquiry - i.e. that Trump specifically could not be cleared of treason but that as incumbent President he could not be prosecuted, now lands on the desk of a Democratic Attorney General. I'm not sure he has the power to do that and why would the Squad listen to him anyway? The squad are as powerful as mainstream Democrats and more importantly, the media let them be. |
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Post by ibfc on Nov 6, 2020 11:54:08 GMT
No one is throwing Trump under the bus. Trump’s demands right now are unjustifiable and they are just letting him vent in the hope he’ll eventually calm down. Calm down or give himself enough rope. Either works. I don’t think so. The GOP needs Trump to have a shot at 2024. Not as a candidate but he needs to be there to drive his base up. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 6, 2020 13:43:23 GMT
Carlson and Haley vs Harris and Buttigieg
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Izzyeviel
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Post by Izzyeviel on Nov 6, 2020 14:36:26 GMT
Carlson and Haley vs Harris and Buttigieg Nikki Haley is currently getting hate from Trumpers for not being supportive enough of Trump |
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 6, 2020 15:03:19 GMT
I'm not sure he has the power to do that and why would the Squad listen to him anyway? The squad are as powerful as mainstream Democrats and more importantly, the media let them be. If that were true, the administration's half-hearted attempt at withdrawal from Afghanistan would be continuing apace. |
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johng
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Post by johng on Nov 6, 2020 17:54:31 GMT
I'm not sure if we are trusting polls anymore and that early polls are often more name recognition contests, but some interesting numbers here. Obviously no big Don, but two names very clearly stand out. Haley is surprisingly strong as well. I'm not sure if people are being serious about the likes of Tucker Carlson or not - would he really win the nomination?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 6, 2020 18:28:29 GMT
Why have we started this thread already? This one hasn't even been called yet.
Or perhaps we should get admin to start the 2024 UK constituency threads now, before we even know what the constituencies will be?
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Izzyeviel
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Post by Izzyeviel on Nov 6, 2020 18:41:16 GMT
Why have we started this thread already? This one hasn't even been called yet. Or perhaps we should get admin to start the 2024 UK constituency threads now, before we even know what the constituencies will be? Can an admin set this up please? |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Nov 7, 2020 5:42:58 GMT
Why have we started this thread already? This one hasn't even been called yet. Or perhaps we should get admin to start the 2024 UK constituency threads now, before we even know what the constituencies will be? To be fair, the campaign for '24 has already started. |
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Post by ibfc on Nov 7, 2020 6:06:26 GMT
I'm not sure if we are trusting polls anymore and that early polls are often more name recognition contests, but some interesting numbers here. Obviously no big Don, but two names very clearly stand out. Haley is surprisingly strong as well. I'm not sure if people are being serious about the likes of Tucker Carlson or not - would he really win the nomination? The only guy who can beat Tucker if he dubs will be Trump himself IMO |
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Nov 7, 2020 8:05:24 GMT
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Post by London Lad on Nov 7, 2020 8:07:28 GMT
Carlson and Haley vs Harris and Buttigieg For once I think that is a pretty good selection of candidates - although I would rather see Haley/Carlson. |
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Nov 7, 2020 8:58:00 GMT
I am not going to speculate too much about 2024 but what we have consistently seen over the last 4 years is that Trump's support doesn't easily transfer to other candidates that he endorses.
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